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Climate Change a challenge for Agriculture Presentation By Allah Dad Khan Visiting Professor Agriculture Extension Agri University Peshawar & Agri Advisor to SDTVAnd Dr Amanullah Junior Agronomy Department Agri University Peshawar

3Outline of Presentation

�Climate Changes Global Over View Food, energy, climate and finance. Factors relating to climate change Impact of Climate Change in Pakistan Agriculture and climate change Impact of climate change in Agriculture Adaption Agriculture Forest and water

and Irrigation Pakistan Initial Commission on Climate Change

Recommendations Views of Experts

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Climate Changes Global Over View

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ClimateThe appreciation of the effects of potential climatic changes is essential. Many believe it is not until a certain threshold of gravity of the modifications observed, that it will be convenient or pressing to deal with these issues. Agriculture is one of these fields that are carefully monitored.ChallengeThe impact of climate change presents a new hurdle in the fight against extreme poverty and disease. Experts predict that in many sub-Saharan African countries, climate change could mean more frequent drought and floods, water scarcity, and increased health challenges such as under-nutrition. These new challenges will not only make achieving the Millennium Development Goals more difficult, but could also threaten some of the progress already made in fighting extreme poverty and disease.

6links between food, energy, climate and finance1. Climate change is generated by emissions of greenhouse gases that in turn are largely dependent on fossil energy use (mainly coal and oil) and by methane and nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture;2.Food production, distribution and consumption depend strongly on fossil fuel energy consumption; high oil prices affect costs of production, processing, transport, conservation; at the same time,agriculture’s important role in greenhouse gas (GHG) production is increasing as rising incomes drive up demand for meat proteins;3. Climate change hits agricultural productivity directly through drought, floods, pests, diseases and catastrophic events, as well as by temperature changes that affect plant productivity;4. In order to anticipate the foresighted peak in oil reserves, many governments are subsidizing the production and trade of biofuels, so contributing to increased food prices;5.In order to diversify financial assets, investors are turning their attention to agricultural commodities, amplifying price increases;6.In order to safeguard their own domestic food security, countries with high populations and/or low agricultural potential are competing with small farmers in other countries for land and water by buying or contracting large tracts of land.

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Factors related to climate change

a) Indiscriminate use of natural resourcesb) Global warmingc) Excessive and unplanned urbanizationd) Unplanned industrial growthe) Imbalanced use of agricultural inputs and extreme

farmingf) Population pressureg) Effect of industrial pollution on marine life Flood Drought Land erosion land sliding

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Source: Stern Review

Critical Challenges: Climate change

10Changes in Human and Natural Drivers of climate Changes 1. CO2 concentrations have increased from 280 ppm (since �1750) to 368 ppm in 2000 (31.4%) to 379 in 2005 (35.4% rise) and 396.18 ppm in April 20122. CH4 concentrations have increased from a pre-industrial value of about 715 ppb to 1732 ppb in early 1990s (142% rise) and is 1774ppb in 2005 (148% rise). The rise since 1990s is only 2.4%. 3.N2O concentrations have increased from a pre-industrial value of about 270 ppb to 319 ppb in 2005 (18% rise). The growth rate has about 270 ppb to 319 ppb in 2005 (18% rise). The growth rate has been approximately constant since 1980s. More than a third of all N2O emissions are anthropogenic and are primarily due to agricultureTemperature1.11 of the last 12 years (1995-2006) except 1996 rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850).2. Widespread changes in extreme temperatures have been observed over the last 50 years. Cold days, cold nights and frost have become less frequent, while hot days, hot nights, and heat waves have become more frequent

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Impact of Climate changes on Pakistan

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AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE: VIRTUOUS CIRCLE

AGRICULTURE CONTRIBUTES

TO FIGHTING CLIMATE CHANGE

AGRICULTURAL VULNERABILITY

IS REDUCED

AGRICULTURE BUSSINES EXPANSIONIS BASED ON SUSTAINABLE PRACTICES INCLUDING

FOREST AREA INCREMENT, PROTECTION AND RESTORATION

AGRICULTURE INCREASES:AGRO ECOSYSTEMS AND FOREST ECOSYSTEMS

CLIMATE STABILIZATION GLOBAL SERVICE

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Impacts on Agriculture 1. Fourteen crops were considered for impact �assessment (at 0.3ºC per decade). All the selected crops were found to be suffering due to heat stress.2. significant increase in growing degree days reduces the growing season length for the crop.3. 8% and 15% increase in GDD in 2020 and 2050. �With rainfall decreases by 6%, net irrigation water requirements could increase by 29%.4. The areas suitable for agriculture, the length of growing seasons and the yield potential of food staples are all projected to decline. 5. Changing climate patterns will have important implications for water availability.6. Across the globe, sea levels could rise rapidly with accelerated ice sheet disintegration. 7. Climate change will affect human health through variables such as changes in temperature, exposure to natural disasters, access to food and air quality. 8. Changes induced by climate change are likely to result in species range shifts and changes in tree productivity, adding further stress to forest ecosystems

15Impacts on Agriculture contd9.Soils are sources of concern as well. The global crop land availability is in decline as a result of population growth, soil degradation, soil losses and soil sealing, shrinking water resources, salt water intrusion into coastal aquifers, as well as rising temperatures that are leading to falling land productivity.10.Loss of agri-biodiversity is associated with a range of causal factors, including destruction and fragmentation of habitats and the increasing use of land for non-agricultural purposes, emissions, agricultural intensification, etc. (Millenium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005)11.Landslides tend to occur more frequently in areas with clayey sub-soil, steep slopes, intense and abundant precipitation and land abandonment, such as the Alpine and the Mediterranean regions. Again this trend is accelerated by the intensification of pasture use.12.The contamination with pesticides in surface water, ground water and partly in drinking water, in particular after heavy rainfalls, is another problem area13.Pandemic pest and diseases in animal and plant production The movement of plant pests, animal diseases and invasive alien aquatic organisms across physical and political boundaries threatens food security in new ways in a climate-changing world.

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AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE: NEED TO CHANGE A PERFECT VICIOUS CIRCLE

AGRICULTURE CONTRIBUTES

TO CLIMATE CHANGE

CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASES

VULNERABILITY OF AGRICULTURE

AGRICULTURAL FRONTIER EXPANSION IS BASED ON

DEFORESTATION

AGRICULTURE REDUCES FOREST ECOSYSTEMS,

CLIMATE STABILIZATION, GLOBAL SERVICE

17Impact on Forest (Pakistan Initial Commission on Climate Change

1. Cold and temperate conifers will show a northward shift, �pushing against the cold conifer/mixed woodland,

2. The increase in temperature scenario tended to increase �Net Primary Productivity in all biomes in the year 2020 and 2050. Under increase or decrease in rainfall scenarios, the NPP of all biomes did not show much increase in the years 2020 and 2050.

3. The average Net Primary Productivity (NPP) increase of differentbiomes, over the base year of 1990 is estimated as 12% in the year 2020 and 19% in the year 2040-50 (calculated) under the climate change scenarios.

N.B. Pakistan’s Initial National Communication on Climate Change(PINCCC)

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Adaption Agriculture Forest and water Pakistan Initial Commission on Climate Change

19Adaptation: Agriculture (PINCCC) Changes in Cropping Patterns Sugar beet instead of sugarcane� Adjusting Cropping Pattern with Water Availability� More share of cropped area under oil seed crops� Improved Productivity and Production Management� Farm forestry�Adaptation: Forests Pest Control: The biological control of forest pests is a very important

adaptation measure. Change in Species: Special attention shall have to be given to those �

tree species which have poor seed production and dispersal, which occupy ecological niches, have small populations and which occupy ecological niches, have small populations and restricted ranges and are peripheral.

Preservation of Watersheds: to control sediments towards �downstream

Control of Wastage: Use of Waste wood to produce composite wood� N.B. Pakistan’s Initial National Communication on Climate

Change(PINCCC 2003)

20Adaptation: Water Resources (PINCCC) � Measures to Improve System Efficiency Watershed Management � Urban Water Use� Water Quality and Environmental Protection� Flood Control � Weather Forecasting and Information Network for � Farmers Adaptations in Policy Planning�Adaptation: irrigation Effect of change in number of irrigations keeping total quantity

of irrigation water the same. Effect of change in number of irrigations keeping the quantity �

of water per irrigation the same. Change in sowing window of crops.� Change in planting technique e.g. transplanting versus direct �

sowing in the case of rice. Changes in other agricultural practices.

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Recommendation

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Recommendation by experts Accordingly restoring soil organic matter . Possibilities to reduce GHG emissions and to mitigate

change effects associated with “the agricultural sec to understand not only the functioning of ecosystems but also their criticality.

Therefore the systems approaches needed have to be highlighted to further develop low external input concepts which are more diversified and "greener" (the next generation of agricultural research) paving the way for alternative models .

To quickly improve the capacities of the agricultural knowledge system and to improve the response capacity of the Agriculture

To encourage more systems oriented research to better understand key issues in terms of functioning and criticality, better integration and coordination of research efforts

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Recommendation by experts Contd Strong reorientation of agriculture has taken place

towards more resilient systems (organic farming) Sustainable and ethical entrepreneurship in food and

farming Sector. Completely changed food cost structure New multi- and inter-cropping systems , sector,Re-

introduction of more sustainable rotation systems with locally adapted varieties

Agro/Biofuel 3rd generation ( Diesel Plant Jatropa) More added value trough ecosystem services Agriculture policies , Agricultural models; trade policies;

land policies Should be framed inviting all stake holders at Federal and provincial level addressing the climate change.

The adoption of integrated pest management as the preferred crop protection.

Rain water harvesting, Drip and Sprinkler irrigation system Bio-farm waste need to be handled for energy generation

such as bio-gas plants/ mechanization plants, etc

Sprinkler Irrigation

Sprinkler irrigation is a method of applying irrigation water which is similar to natural rainfall.

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Drip Irrigation 25

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Energy Conservation and Laser Leveling

Solar Energy 27

Bio Gas28

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