Impact of EOS MLS ozone data on medium-extended range ensemble forecasts Jacob C. H. Cheung 1,...
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![Page 1: Impact of EOS MLS ozone data on medium-extended range ensemble forecasts Jacob C. H. Cheung 1, Joanna D. Haigh 1, David R. Jackson 2 1 Imperial College.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515fa02550346d46f8b5814/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Impact of EOS MLS ozone data on medium-extended range ensemble forecasts
Jacob C. H. Cheung 1, Joanna D. Haigh1, David R. Jackson2
1Imperial College London 2Met Office
![Page 2: Impact of EOS MLS ozone data on medium-extended range ensemble forecasts Jacob C. H. Cheung 1, Joanna D. Haigh 1, David R. Jackson 2 1 Imperial College.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515fa02550346d46f8b5814/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Overview
• Motivation
• Methods
• Experimental period selected
• Impact on tropospheric forecasts
• Is there significant improvement?
![Page 3: Impact of EOS MLS ozone data on medium-extended range ensemble forecasts Jacob C. H. Cheung 1, Joanna D. Haigh 1, David R. Jackson 2 1 Imperial College.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515fa02550346d46f8b5814/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Motivation
Comparison of Forecast RMS differences: Forecast against analysis for extended global index
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
NH Tropics SH
Location
FC
RM
S (
%)
dif
fere
nces
SPARC climatology
ECMWF Ozone Field
Assimilation of SBUV only
Assimilation of SBUV andEOSMLS
Source: Mathison et al. 2007
Increase in forecast skill
Decrease in forecast skill
![Page 4: Impact of EOS MLS ozone data on medium-extended range ensemble forecasts Jacob C. H. Cheung 1, Joanna D. Haigh 1, David R. Jackson 2 1 Imperial College.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515fa02550346d46f8b5814/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Motivation
• Full tropospheric response to stratospheric thermal forcing is a two-stage process
• Improving representation of ozone will possibly improve medium-extended forecasts
Source: Simpson et al. 2009
Forecast range considered by Mathison et al.
![Page 5: Impact of EOS MLS ozone data on medium-extended range ensemble forecasts Jacob C. H. Cheung 1, Joanna D. Haigh 1, David R. Jackson 2 1 Imperial College.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515fa02550346d46f8b5814/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Aim
Is the representation of stratospheric ozone important in medium-extended range tropospheric forecasts?
![Page 6: Impact of EOS MLS ozone data on medium-extended range ensemble forecasts Jacob C. H. Cheung 1, Joanna D. Haigh 1, David R. Jackson 2 1 Imperial College.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515fa02550346d46f8b5814/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Methods
• Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS)
• Resolution: N216L85• 31-day free running forecast• 24 ensemble member
Run Id LiShine (Control) MLS (Experiment)
Dataset Li and Shine 95 EOS MLS
Ozone 5-year monthly mean zonal mean
Monthly mean zonal mean correspond to the chosen forecast date
Case Studies Northern winter; Southern winter, spring
Northern spring (March 2011)
![Page 7: Impact of EOS MLS ozone data on medium-extended range ensemble forecasts Jacob C. H. Cheung 1, Joanna D. Haigh 1, David R. Jackson 2 1 Imperial College.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515fa02550346d46f8b5814/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Experimental period selected – March 2011
Source: NASA/Goddard
![Page 8: Impact of EOS MLS ozone data on medium-extended range ensemble forecasts Jacob C. H. Cheung 1, Joanna D. Haigh 1, David R. Jackson 2 1 Imperial College.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515fa02550346d46f8b5814/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Ozone profiles
![Page 9: Impact of EOS MLS ozone data on medium-extended range ensemble forecasts Jacob C. H. Cheung 1, Joanna D. Haigh 1, David R. Jackson 2 1 Imperial College.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515fa02550346d46f8b5814/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Results – Stratospheric temperature
MLS-LiShine
MLS forecast errorLiShine forecast error
- General reduction in temperature forecast errors with MLS ozone
- Temperature anomaly between runs is significant in stratosphere
- Not much change in temperature in troposphere
![Page 10: Impact of EOS MLS ozone data on medium-extended range ensemble forecasts Jacob C. H. Cheung 1, Joanna D. Haigh 1, David R. Jackson 2 1 Imperial College.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515fa02550346d46f8b5814/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Results – Tropospheric zonal wind
MLS-LiShine
MLS forecast errorLiShine forecast error
- Tropospheric zonal wind anomaly between runs is weak compared to individual forecast errors
- Response is statistically significant in some area
![Page 11: Impact of EOS MLS ozone data on medium-extended range ensemble forecasts Jacob C. H. Cheung 1, Joanna D. Haigh 1, David R. Jackson 2 1 Imperial College.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515fa02550346d46f8b5814/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Results - SLP
[hPa] [hPa]
MLS-LiShine
NH SH
![Page 12: Impact of EOS MLS ozone data on medium-extended range ensemble forecasts Jacob C. H. Cheung 1, Joanna D. Haigh 1, David R. Jackson 2 1 Imperial College.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515fa02550346d46f8b5814/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Temperature RMSE (10hPa)
NH
TR
SH
![Page 13: Impact of EOS MLS ozone data on medium-extended range ensemble forecasts Jacob C. H. Cheung 1, Joanna D. Haigh 1, David R. Jackson 2 1 Imperial College.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515fa02550346d46f8b5814/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Horizontal wind RMSE (250hPa) GPH RMSE (500hPa)
NH
TR
SH
![Page 14: Impact of EOS MLS ozone data on medium-extended range ensemble forecasts Jacob C. H. Cheung 1, Joanna D. Haigh 1, David R. Jackson 2 1 Imperial College.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515fa02550346d46f8b5814/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Horizontal wind RMSE (250hPa) GPH RMSE (500hPa)
NH
TR
SH
![Page 15: Impact of EOS MLS ozone data on medium-extended range ensemble forecasts Jacob C. H. Cheung 1, Joanna D. Haigh 1, David R. Jackson 2 1 Imperial College.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515fa02550346d46f8b5814/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Summary
- Performed a case study in which the MLS ozone profile is much superior that of LiShine
- Zonal wind and temperature response is sensitive to the ozone climatology in current NWP systems (in agreement with other ST coupling studies)
- Tropospheric forecast errors are dominated by ensemble spread in medium-extended range forecasts
-> In our experiments, using monthly mean zonal mean EOS MLS ozone data does not significantly improve medium-extended tropospheric forecasts
![Page 16: Impact of EOS MLS ozone data on medium-extended range ensemble forecasts Jacob C. H. Cheung 1, Joanna D. Haigh 1, David R. Jackson 2 1 Imperial College.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515fa02550346d46f8b5814/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Questions?
![Page 17: Impact of EOS MLS ozone data on medium-extended range ensemble forecasts Jacob C. H. Cheung 1, Joanna D. Haigh 1, David R. Jackson 2 1 Imperial College.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5515fa02550346d46f8b5814/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Horizontal wind RMSE (50hPa) Temperature RMSE (50hPa)
NH
TR
SH