Impact of Climate Change on Plant Community Composition and Ecosystem

Function in MOJN ParksSeth Munson, Jayne Belnap, Robert Webb (USGS)

Nita Tallent (NPS)

May 1964 April 1999

Bob Webb

Many NPS management decisions occur at a local, short-term scale, but climate change is occurring at a large scale with long-term consequences, including exotic plant species invasions, shrub encroachment, and increased fire risk.

These consequences are especially challenging in MOJN parks, which are expected to warm faster than many other parts of the country and experience altered precipitation, which may result in reduced soil moisture in an already water-limited environment.

Anticipating shifts in plant community composition and cover due to climate change, a key vital sign and determinant of ecosystem processes, requires a regional assessment using long-term data.

Research Need

Objectives

Determine which plant species and functional types are vulnerable to climate change and forecast potential regional shifts in plant community composition

Identify climate thresholds that are indicative of changes in plant growth

Document the magnitude of change in plant species performance over a climate gradient

Based on work in SODN, CHDN, and NCPN◦ Select and compile long-term vegetation and climate

datasets from MOJN parks and nearby protected areas

◦ Couple climate and vegetation datasets to determine how plant species have responded to past climate variability and forecast how plant communities will shift in composition

◦ Address management implications of shifts (i.e., changes in food and habitat for wildlife, fire regime, erosion potential, etc.)

Proposal

4

Park and Network Specific Information BriefsNPS Technical Reports Peer-reviewed publicationsFor links to existing products from NCPN

and SODN: https://profile.usgs.gov/smunson/

Products

5

Goals for 2012 Find and synthesize long-term climate and vegetation datasets

from MOJN parks and protected areas

Quality assess/control datasets for accuracy

Perform cross-site analyses on compiled data to determine changes in plant species abundance across MOJN parks in response to climate

When possible, integrate analyses with repeat photographs that exist throughout the region

Seek additional funding to support effort (USGS National Park Monitoring Program, Mendenhall Fellowship, etc.)

WebinarThe Impact of Climate on Plant Species Performance in

Mojave Desert National Parks: Forecasting Regional, Long-term Effects to Meet Management Needs

Seth Munson, Robert Webb - U.S. Geological Survey, Nita Tallent - National Park Service

April 10, 201210 -11

Emailing details of the webinar

Arranging park visits