Impact Evaluation 4 Peace24-27 March 2014, Lisbon, Portugal

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Latin America and the Caribbean’s Citizen SecurityTeam

Challenge of territories where state has failed

• State has the capacity to provide public services

• But incapable of ensuring public safety

• Police corruption and incompetence

• Youth at risk due to lack of opportunities

• Ni estudia Ni trabaja (nini)

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State cannot even patrol the small towns and neighborhoods

Gang activity and underlying insecurity that is not directly related to drug traffic

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Challenge was geocoded all participants

• Matched sample of youth outside Zapopan municipality

• Analysis of targeting using census tracts (~4000 inhabitants) and electoral precincts (~700 voters)

• Two year panel study to measure employment, school enrollment, self esteem

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Evaluation fraught with many challenges

• Oversampling of youth with no internet access

• Use of social media for information of program and enrollment

• Attrition in the panel expected to be high

• Cost of evaluation compared to program

• Local government capacity to partner in evaluation

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