Important International Issues: 2014Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)

The year 2014 has seen a new revolution across the world, where a Sunni Jihadist group, The ISIS, which came into existence to protect the Sunni minorities from the Shia dominated Iraq and Syria regimes, assumed a dimension that goes beyond borders across the world.

The biggest reason for the ISIS to become so popular is its very effective social media that propagates the revival of a Caliphate that would transcend across artificial borders between all Arab ruled states.

During the last six months, since, it’s self proclaimed caliph, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi shocked the world by raising its black flags over the Iraqi city of Mosul, ISIS has failed to reach Baghdad or to take Kobani on the Syrian-Turkish border in the face of fierce Kurdish resistance.

Iraqi military is being closely supported by US air strikes; in fact 13 air strikes were launched on 26 December also to prevent the ISIS from taking Kurdish dominated area of Kobani.

While, in Syria, countries like, Iran, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and three other Gulf States are helping the regime of President Bashar al-Assad to check its further expansion.

The present overall picture offers some hope as the advance of ISIS has been stalled. Its financial clout has also been diminished after it lost Oilfields’ that was its most significant source of revenue.

However, it occupies 400 mile strip from Alleppo in Syria to Falluja in Iraq. In order to gain local support and popularity, it runs social services and improving infrastructure on the ground, advertising for contractors and engineers to supply electricity and maintain dams.

ISIS gets its staying power – Ba’athist-era army officers and Iraqi tribes, as well as al-Qaida veterans and wannabe jihadist from across the world, including India. Extremists in Yemen, Libya and Egypt have also sworn allegiance to ISIS.

The reasons for the worldwide growing support of ISIS are:

Suppressive regimes in Shia dominated countries, who have been intolerant to Sunni minorities and also a failed ‘Arab Spring’ in these countries.

ISIS is playing the Shia-Sunni card to arouse the sentiments of the masses against a probable coalition between Iraq-Syria- Iran and Shia allies such as Hezbollah to fight the Sunnis’.

Its barbaric propaganda machinery attracts many all over the world and are called ‘Lone Wolfs’, who are not directly in contact or controlled by ISIS leaders, but, are volunteers, who commit terror strikes at will, e.g. terror strikes in Australia, Canada, etc.

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who calls himself a “leader for Muslims everywhere”, is being viewed as a replacement of Osama bin Laden. Hence, largest foreign Arab contingents are from Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Tunisia, which was the original beat of Al Qaida.

The regional Arab partners fighting against ISIS are hesitant to be seen by the Arab community to be on the same side as its arch traditional “enemy”- USA.

The way ahead to tackle the problem may be summarised as follows:

Intelligence-sharing and crackdowns – on radical preachers, financing and recruitment will serve to be more effective tools than air strikes.

Long term stabilisation of situation in the region needs to be addressed politically, where the Shia regimes displays willingness to accommodate the Sunni minorities in the area. ISIS is already making inroads into Iraq’s western, heavily Sunni provinces, e.g. Anbar province.

International diplomacy to prevent further gains for ISIS is likely to accelerate in the New Year.

Providing safety, security and rehabilitation of millions of Syrian refuges that are imposing heavy burden on neighbouring countries like Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey. In this regard, the UN’s latest Syria envoy, Staffan de Mistura, is working on a plan to freeze and extend local ceasefires, that has commenced recently in Aleppo, Syria

Turkey has so far not allowed its airbases to be used by USA. However, it is facing growing western pressure to allow its Incirlik airbase to be used for coalition attacks on Syria and to control its southern border to cut off the flow of men and money to ISIS.

Finally, it needs to be understood that only military victory over ISIS will not be adequate, its barbaric and inhuman ideology needs to be defeated. The world community, including the Arab countries will have to project a united front to tackle the problem.

The background Information and Emergence of ISIS:

http://www.olivegreens.co.in/blog/creation-of-islamic-state-isis-in-middle-east

http://www.olivegreens.co.in/blog/isis-forms-an-effective-government-in-islamic-state-caliphate

http://www.olivegreens.co.in/blog/the-real-cause-of-muslim-unrest-in-the-world-by-col-ashokan

Al Qaida/ISIS Threat to India and its Implications:

http://www.olivegreens.co.in/blog/bracing-for-the-issi-al-qaida-threat-to-india

Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions

Iran has displayed a conciliatory outlook towards its nuclear programme ever since the new President, Hassan Rouhani assumed office. Iran has already consented on the Joint Plan of Action and Framework for Cooperation with P5+1 and meaningful negotiations are underway.

Please read the details about what are India’s interests and its stand on the issue. http://www.olivegreens.co.in/blog/india-s-position-on-iran-s-nuclear-aspirations

Ukraine Crisis

The involvement of Russian troops in support of the Ukraine dividing into three components, Crimea (southern region of Ukraine), which has already declared independence from Ukraine, Pro-Russia Eastern Ukraine and integral Ukraine (Western region of Ukraine).

http://www.olivegreens.co.in/blog/crisis-in-ukraine

Russia’s Growing Interest in Asia market

The US led EU countries have imposed crippling sanctions on Russia against its military intervention in Ukraine and that is why it is turning towards Asia for commerce.

http://www.olivegreens.co.in/blog/reasons-for-russia-s-enhanced-economic-interests-in-india-and-asia

Democratic Reforms in Hongkong

The revolution spearheaded by the youth in Hongkong against the Chinese control over the election process and existing methodology of choosing their political representatives actually fell on China’s deaf ears.

Inspite of months of blockade and striking no solution actually emerged the barricades were finally removed by the administration and the revolutionaries were evicted. However, their leaders have said that they would again resume the strike if the matter is not addressed as demanded by them.

http://www.olivegreens.co.in/blog/hongkong-a-glimpse-of-democracy-in-china

Implication of Withdrawal of NATO/US Forces from Afghanistan

The situation in Afghanistan still remain grim with frequent bomb blasts and killings by the Taliban’s who have gone into the hiding since the US led NATO troops cracked down on them in their ‘fight against terror’.

The Afghan military forces are being trained by the US and progressively the control is being handed over to the local administration, however, the complete withdrawal of the US forces from Afghanistan by the mid of 2015, will have far reaching effects in the region. The terror attack in Army Public School, Peshawar was an early example of what we may expect during 2015.

http://www.olivegreens.co.in/blog/implications-of-withdrawal-of-us-nato-forces-from-afghanistan

Gaza Conflict

The Palestine-Israel issue has been in existence since time immemorial. The air and ground offensive launched by Israel on Gaza strip was a landmark news of the year that resulted in major loss of life and property in the Gaza strip.

http://www.olivegreens.co.in/blog/palestine-israel-conflict-why-is-gaza-strip-significant

Ebola Epidemic

Ebola resulted in the loss of a lot of human lives, mainly, in West Africa. The disease is now said to have been controlled and most affected countries have been declared Ebola free. The world community and UNO has committed billions of dollars to assist the Ebola victims and ensure their rehabilitation.

http://www.olivegreens.co.in/blog/ebola-the-killer-virus

Trade Facilitation Treaty vs Food Security

During the Ninth Ministerial Conference held at Bali in December 2013 consensus was reached on the Trade Facilitation Treaty for greater transparency and simplification of custom procedures.

As per WTO regulations negotiated in the Uruguay Round, Government procurement from farmers for public stock holding must be kept within a limit of 10 per cent of the value of total production of the product in question.

This cap can constrain procurement and food aid programmes in developing countries like India. Hence, India put its foot down, during the World Economic Forum held on 25 July 2014, much to the annoyance of developed countries, thereby stalling the TFT unless a concrete decision on food security was given.

The issue remains pending and is likely to come up for discussion during the next Ministerial Conference of WTO, which is slated to be held in December 2015. http://www.olivegreens.co.in/blog/driving-forces-of-global-economy-wto-imf-world-bank

Climate Change Conference at Lima

The 20th session of the Conference of the Parties and the 10th session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol took place from 01 to 12 December 2014 in Lima, Peru.

Developing countries wanted their contributions to include plans for adaptation to climate change as well as emissions cuts, and for developed countries to include financial support for poorer nations.

Developed countries on the other hand wanted all countries to provide standardised information on their emissions targets and plans, to ensure transparency and comparability. These countries argued that the bulk of emissions originated in developing countries.

The finally agreed document calls for the following:

All countries will be asked to submit plans for curbing greenhouse gas emissions, known as “Intended Nationally Determined Contributions,” or INDCs, to the United Nations by an informal deadline of 31 March 2015.

The Green Climate Fund has been pledged to the tune of $10bn, including $3 billion from USA, a mechanism for rich countries to give financial aid to help the world’s poorest countries to cope with climate change.

Countries to set targets that go beyond their "current undertaking" In order to assess the progress made, the UN climate change body was asked to

report back on the national pledges in November 2015. http://www.olivegreens.co.in/blog/lima-climate-change-conference-december-

2014