Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

Climate Change: Use of Climate Science in Decision-making

Eugene S. TakleProfessor of Atmospheric Science

Department of Geological and Atmospheric SciencesProfessor of Agricultural Meteorology

Department of AgronomyFaculty Director, University Honors Program

Iowa State UniversityAmes, Iowa 50011

[email protected]

Ames High School6 December 2007


Outline Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide Radiative forcing Simulations of global climate and future

climate change Climate change for Iowa and the Midwest:

adaptation strategy

Except where noted as personal views or from the ISU Global Change course or the Iowa Environmental Mesonet, all materials presented herein are from peer-reviewed scientific reports

CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.

CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.

Natural cycles

Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years

IPCC Third Assessment Report


2007

380 ppm

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature


2050

550 ppm



“Business as Usual”

950 ppm



“Business as Usual”

950 ppm

?


QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif

Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONSIPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

Mt. Pinatubo (1991)El Chichon (1982)

Agung, 1963

At present trends the imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/10/01/science/20071002_ARCTIC_GRAPHIC.html?ex=1191902400&en=c94928ddecd5ba57&ei=5070&emc=eta3

Source:

Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).

http://www.acia.uaf.edu/

Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m(~3 ft) rise in sea level

Kennedy SpaceCenter

Miami

Impact of a 1-mrise in sea levelon low-lying areas

Source:

Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).

Projected sea-level rise In 21st century:0.5 to 1.0 m

http://www.acia.uaf.edu/

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONSHansen, Scientific American, March 2004



An exhibition of old and new photographs at the Swiss Alpine Museum in Bern documents the gradual disappearance of Switzerland's glaciers.The Rhone glacier with the Hotel Belvedere in the foreground and the Furka pass, Canton Valais circa 1906 and 2003(Pictures: Gesellschaft fur okologische Forschung, Munich)



http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif



Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.




Natural cycles




Not Natural




Not Natural

Highly Likely Not Natural

Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research


Reduced ConsumptionEnergy intensive

Energy conserving


The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions

Energy intensive

Energy conservingReduced Consumption


Reduced ConsumptionEnergy intensive

Energy conserving

AdaptationNecessary

MitigationPossible

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers


Projected Changes for the Climate of Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment) Longer frost-free period (high) Higher average winter temperatures (high) Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high) More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium) Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high) More (~10%) precipitation (medium) More variability of summer precipitation (high)

– More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high)– Higher episodic streamflow (medium)– Longer periods without rain (medium)

Higher absolute humidity (high) Stronger storm systems (medium) Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium)

Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models inconclusive


Summary Climate change of the past 35 years is not consistent

with natural variations over the last 400,000 years Evidence clearly shows that radiative forcing due to

anthropogenic greenhouse gases has contributed over half of the warming of the last 35 years

Mitigation efforts, although urgently needed, will have little effect on global warming until the latter half of the 21st century

Adaptation strategies should be developed for the next 50 years

Recent trends and model projections should be used to develop adaptation strategies for the next 10 years

EST personal view


For More Information For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have seen in this presentation, see

my online Global Change course:http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse

Contact me directly:[email protected]

Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at Iowa State Unversity under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/

North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Programhttp://www.narccap.ucar.edu/

For this and other climate change presentations see my personal website:http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/

Or just Google Eugene Takle

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/

http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/

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