IM Jan 30 2013 - customers.reuters.comLONDON, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Global steel production last year...

13
INSIDE METALS Wednesday, January 30, 2013 CHART OF THE DAY TODAY’S MARKETS MARKET NEWS COLUMN- Global steel and the curse of the zombies Global steel production last year set a new volume record of 1,548 mil- lion tonnes, according to figures from the World Steel Association (WSA). Andy Home is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own Click here to read more .. PREVIEW-Inventories, trade seen hobbling U.S. 4th-quarter GDP Less restocking by businesses and weaker global demand likely held back U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter but consumer spend- ing probably picked up to help keep the recovery intact. Click here to read more .. FEATURE Click here for LME charts Fed waits for job market to perk up U.S. home prices see best yearly gain since 2006 Anglo American's $4 bln hit clears decks for new CEO Aquarius Platinum production rises Demand for India's silver jewellery exports picks up sharply GENERAL NEWS Click on the chart for full-size image ALUMINIUM : Tajik aluminium smelter cuts 2012 output to 272,500 T COPPER : HSBC raises 2013 copper price outlook on tighter market Antofagasta's 2012 copper production beats target NICKEL/STEEL : Vale sees iron ore at $110-$180/Tonne - CFO Metalloinvest cuts steel billet output as Iran sanctions bite Italy steel output could fall in 2013 on strong euro ZINC/LEAD : China's refined zinc imports to stay strong on financing demand BASE METALS: London copper rose to nearly a three-week high as traders opened new long positions on copper on hopes for improving global growth, while looking ahead to results from a Federal Reserve meeting and Chinese factory data. "There are expectations for mildly dovish sentiment today that are weighing on the dollar and that's why we're seeing some gains across commodities," said commodities analyst Natalie Robertson of ANZ in Melbourne. PRECIOUS METALS: Gold fought to hold steady above a key techni- cal level after snapping a four-day slide in the previous session on hopes the U.S. Federal Reserve would opt to continue with monetary stimulus. "In the short term, gold will struggle because the U.S. data will continue to be pretty good," said Jeremy Friesen, commodity strategist at So- ciete Generale in Hong Kong. FOREX: The dollar rose to a fresh 2-1/2 year high against the yen bol- stered by widening spreads between U.S. Treasuries and Japanese government bond yields amid expectations of more aggressive easing by the Bank of Japan in coming months. The dollar was up 0.6 percent at 91.32 yen , with traders citing option expiries at 91.50 yen which could sway trade. The euro was also 0.7 percent higher at 123.30 yen , with investors targetting its April 2011 high of 123.33 yen.

Transcript of IM Jan 30 2013 - customers.reuters.comLONDON, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Global steel production last year...

Page 1: IM Jan 30 2013 - customers.reuters.comLONDON, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Global steel production last year set a new volume record of 1,548 million tonnes, according to figures from the World

INSIDE METALS Wednesday, January 30, 2013

CHART OF THE DAY

TODAY’S MARKETS

MARKET NEWS

COLUMN- Global steel and the curse of the zombies

Global steel production last year set a new volume record of 1,548 mil-lion tonnes, according to figures from the World Steel Association (WSA).

Andy Home is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own

Click here to read more..

PREVIEW-Inventories, trade seen hobbling U.S. 4th-quarter GDP

Less restocking by businesses and weaker global demand likely held back U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter but consumer spend-ing probably picked up to help keep the recovery intact.

Click here to read more..

FEATURE

Click here for LME charts

Fed waits for job market to perk up

U.S. home prices see best yearly gain since 2006

Anglo American's $4 bln hit clears decks for new CEO

Aquarius Platinum production rises

Demand for India's silver jewellery exports picks up sharply

GENERAL NEWS

Click on the chart for full-size image

ALUMINIUM:

Tajik aluminium smelter cuts 2012 output to 272,500 T

COPPER:

HSBC raises 2013 copper price outlook on tighter market

Antofagasta's 2012 copper production beats target

NICKEL/STEEL:

Vale sees iron ore at $110-$180/Tonne - CFO

Metalloinvest cuts steel billet output as Iran sanctions bite

Italy steel output could fall in 2013 on strong euro

ZINC/LEAD:

China's refined zinc imports to stay strong on financing demand

BASE METALS: London copper rose to nearly a three-week high as traders opened new long positions on copper on hopes for improving global growth, while looking ahead to results from a Federal Reserve meeting and Chinese factory data.

"There are expectations for mildly dovish sentiment today that are weighing on the dollar and that's why we're seeing some gains across commodities," said commodities analyst Natalie Robertson of ANZ in Melbourne.

PRECIOUS METALS: Gold fought to hold steady above a key techni-cal level after snapping a four-day slide in the previous session on hopes the U.S. Federal Reserve would opt to continue with monetary stimulus.

"In the short term, gold will struggle because the U.S. data will continue to be pretty good," said Jeremy Friesen, commodity strategist at So-ciete Generale in Hong Kong.

FOREX: The dollar rose to a fresh 2-1/2 year high against the yen bol-stered by widening spreads between U.S. Treasuries and Japanese government bond yields amid expectations of more aggressive easing by the Bank of Japan in coming months.

The dollar was up 0.6 percent at 91.32 yen , with traders citing option expiries at 91.50 yen which could sway trade.

The euro was also 0.7 percent higher at 123.30 yen , with investors targetting its April 2011 high of 123.33 yen.

Page 2: IM Jan 30 2013 - customers.reuters.comLONDON, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Global steel production last year set a new volume record of 1,548 million tonnes, according to figures from the World

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FEATURE

COLUMN-Global steel and the curse of the zombies

By Andy Home

LONDON, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Global steel production last year

set a new volume record of 1,548 million tonnes, according to

figures from the World Steel Association (WSA).

But the rate of growth braked sharply to just 1.2 percent from

6.8 percent in 2011, mirroring slowing growth in China, the en-

gine room of the global steel market.

China's leviathan steel sector is now once again cranking up

through the gears in anticipation of resurgent demand resulting

from more government infrastructure spending.

That renewed sense of optimism has already had repercussions

all the way through the steel supply chain - witness the spec-

tacular recovery in the iron ore price since last September's

implosion.

Whether that optimism is justified will be the single most impor-

tant factor in the global steel market this year.

Even if it is, though, it is unlikely to be enough to transform the

fortunes of a margin-compressed industry.

For the other key take-away from the WSA data is the steady

slide in the global capacity utilisation rate. It averaged 78.8 per-

cent in 2012, compared with 80.7 percent in 2011.

In December itself, a month characterised by a normal seasonal

slowdown in the northern hemisphere, capacity utilisation was

running at 73.2 percent, compared with 73.5 a year earlier.

STILL ALL ABOUT CHINA

The WSA's global figures mask a highly variable regional per-

formance last year, as shown in the next graphic. Graphic on

2012 steel production by region:

http://link.reuters.com/haw55t

The obvious stand-out was China, where steel production grew

by 3.1 percent. Although low by recent Chinese standards, it

was still the fastest growth rate of any major steel-producing

region.

And because of the size of the Chinese steel sector, which ac-

counted for 46 percent of world production last year, the output

rise was the main reason why global run-rates grew at all last

year.

Output in the rest of the world actually fell by 0.5 percent, the

first shrinkage since the depths of the Great Financial Contrac-

tion in 2008-2009.

But 2012 was not a simple binary dynamic between a positive

China and a negative Rest of the World.

Outside of China, output performance was also highly mixed.

Witness the contrast between a 4.7 percent decline in the core

European Union area and a 1.9 percent growth registered by

other parts of Europe, particularly Turkey, where output rose by

5.2 percent.

The negative stand-out on the graphic is the 20 percent col-

lapse in steel production in the Oceania region.

But it's worth remembering that it is the smallest steel-producing

region in the world and that last year's slump largely reflected

the trials and tribulations of Australia's Bluescope Steel.

Production in Oceania has since stabilised, as shown in the

next graphic of annualised regional production in December

compared with that in December 2011. Graphic on December

annualised steel production:

http://link.reuters.com/jaw55t

This December snapshot of annualised production shows out-

put just about everywhere else deteriorating, including in North

America where the 2012 positive growth momentum dissipated

over the closing months of the year.

That leaves China looking even more of a stand-out in terms of

production growth this year, given the country's annualised pro-

duction last month was up 7.7 percent on December 2011.

TOO MUCH TOO SOON?

This should come as no surprise.

China's finely poised economic balancing act between soft and

hard landing undermined prices of industrial raw materials

across the board last year.

The anticipated re-acceleration of growth this year has equally

fanned bullish enthusiasm across the board, tempered only by

perceptions of where each commodity is placed in terms of the

country's inventory cycle.

Copper , for example, has so far seen little price impact be-

cause of collective concerns about the large inventories accu-

mulated in Shanghai over the past year.

Iron ore, by contrast, has been on a roller-coaster ride. The spot

price plunged to a three-year low of $87 per tonne in August/

September, only to ricochet back to almost $160 earlier this

month.

It is part of a broader restocking impetus that has spread all the

way down the steel supply chain in China.

This is partly seasonal.

Northern hemisphere steel production always troughs over the

winter months and kicks back in once construction activity re-

vives with warmer weather.

This year the process in China is being given extra oomph by

expectations that government infrastructure spending will pick

up any slack from a still problematic commercial real estate

sector.

Much rests on the scale and scope of that promised infrastruc-

ture boom.

INSIDE METALS January 30, 2013

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FEATURE (Continued)

Consider the next graphic, which tracks Chinese steel produc-

tion against the purchasing managers index (PMI) for the manu-

facturing sector.

Graphic on China's manufacturing PMI and steel output:

http://link.reuters.com/meq76s

Whereas in the past, steel production growth has lagged posi-

tive turning points in the PMI, this time around it is leading it.

That's fine as long as the Chinese government delivers what the

steel sector expects it to deliver. That would reinvigorate a re-

covery in Chinese steel prices that looks at risk of stalling.

Without higher prices for their products, mills are going to ex-

perience another round of severe margin compression similar to

that which triggered the iron ore rout of last year.

The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), which is forecast-

ing 3.1 percent demand growth in China this year, pointedly

warns that the surging iron ore price has put steel firms under

heavy pressure, with the rise in costs "far exceeding" any in-

crease in domestic steel product prices.

CURSE OF THE ZOMBIE

The root problem is one of excess production capacity, a long-

standing target of official criticism in China.

And a long-standing problem in the global steel sector, as

shown by that low capacity utilisation rate. The problem is most

acute in Europe. Production in the core EU-27 area slid by 4.7

percent last year, but demand is widely assessed as having

fallen by far more.

ArcelorMittal , for example, said southern European demand

has contracted by 25 percent. In an ironic twist, it gave out that

number in an announcement about the restart of capacity at its

Gijon plant in Spain.

The extra steel production is aimed at the export market, which

is not surprising given the collapsed state of the Spanish con-

struction sector. Elsewhere, commodity economics are trumped

by politics - witness ArcelorMittal's battle with the French gov-

ernment over the future of its Florange plant.

The net result is the proliferation of "zombie" mills, which are

kept alive out of political rather than market necessity, to borrow

a term coined by Mike Elliott, an analyst at Ernst and Young, in

a recent interview.

Escaping the curse of the zombies will require either a synchro-

nised global economic recovery or a wholesale cull of redundant

capacity.

In the absence of either, capacity utilisation will remain low, pric-

ing power fragile and margins compressed. And what Wolfgang

Eder, chief executive officer of Austrian steelmaker Voestal-

pine , called the steel "price wars" will continue.

--Andy Home is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed

are his own--

PREVIEW-Inventories, trade seen hobbling U.S. 4th-quarter

GDP

WASHINGTON, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Less restocking by busi-

nesses and weaker global demand likely held back U.S. eco-

nomic growth in the fourth quarter but consumer spending

probably picked up to help keep the recovery intact.

Gross domestic product probably grew at a 1.1 percent annual

rate, a step down from the third quarter's brisk 3.1 percent pace,

according to a Reuters poll of economists. That would be the

slowest growth rate in nearly two years.

"The recovery is expected to have ground to a near halt in the

fourth quarter mostly due to the unfavorable global environment

and a slowdown in inventory accumulation," said Millan Mul-

raine, a senior economist at TD Securities in New York.

The Commerce Department will release the fourth-quarter GDP

report on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m (1330 GMT). Despite the

anticipated overall weak GDP figure, consumer and business

spending are expected to show surprising resilience, given that

the economy was on the brink of a so-called fiscal cliff, under-

scoring some fundamental strength in the economy.

The government lessened the blow the recovery would have

taken from the $600 billion "cliff" of scheduled government

spending cuts and tax hikes, but taxes still went up for many

Americans and the spending cuts were only deferred.

Peter D'Antonio, an economist at Citigroup in New York, said

signs domestic demand was well maintained "implies the econ-

omy will be able to withstand the hit from a new fiscal drag."

Tepid demand in the third quarter left businesses with unwanted

stock in their warehouses and little incentive to accumulate

more inventory in the final three months of the year.

Economists estimate that a slowdown in inventory accumulation

could slash as much as a full percentage point from fourth-

quarter GDP growth. Inventories added almost three-quarters of

a percentage point in the July-September period.

With data available so far showing a decline in exports in the

fourth quarter, trade will weigh on growth. Export growth has

been hampered by a recession in much of debt-stricken Europe

and a cooling Chinese economy. Economists expect trade will

subtract at least 0.3 percentage point from fourth-quarter GDP

growth.

DEFENSE TO WEIGH ON GROWTH

Another drag to growth is expected to come from government

spending, where defense outlays are seen reversing the prior

quarter's robust growth. Government spending is seen contract-

ing at a pace of at least 3 percent after expanding 3.9 percent.

A huge storm that struck the East Coast in late October is ex-

pected to have proved a further weight on output.

Elsewhere, details of the report should be fairly encouraging.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of

INSIDE METALS January 30, 2013

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FEATURE (Continued)

U.S. economic activity, is expected to have accelerated from the

prior quarter's 1.6 percent growth pace. A rebound in business

investment is expected after outlays fell in the third quarter for

the first time in 1-1/2 years.

"None of these developments suggest a worrisome weakening

in U.S. fundamentals," said Omair Sharif, an economist at RBS

in Stamford, Connecticut. A measure of underlying domestic

demand, which excludes inventories and trade, is expected to

have quickened a bit from the third quarter's 1.9 percent rate.

But consumer spending could come under pressure in the first

half of this year given that Congress let a temporary payroll tax

cut expire at the end of 2012. Businesses could also pull back

given uncertainty over how deeply Washington may cut spend-

ing and the likelihood of a protracted fight over raising the na-

tion's debt ceiling.

"Assuming Washington does not derail the economy, we do see

a pick-up in the pace of growth in the second half of the year led

by the private sector on strengthening consumption, housing

and released pent-up demand of capital expenditures," said

Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in

Charlotte, North Carolina.

The housing market was another bright spot during the fourth

quarter. Investment in residential construction is expected to

have gained momentum after notching a 13.5 percent pace in

the third quarter.

Homebuilding is expected to have added to growth last year for

the first time since 2005 and its continued recovery should help

ensure the economy remains on a modest growth path despite

headwinds.

INSIDE METALS January 30, 2013

GENERAL NEWS

Fed waits for job market to perk up

LONDON, Jan 27 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve's ultra-loose

monetary policy is a root cause of the "currency wars" that some

see as a looming threat to the world economy, but don't expect

the U.S. central bank to signal a shift back to normal any time

soon.

The Fed, whose policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee

concludes a two-day meeting on Wednesday, said just last

month that it expects to keep short-term interest rates excep-

tionally low until the U.S. unemployment rate falls to 6.5 percent,

inflation permitting.

That goal is still distant. Figures on Friday are likely to show that

the jobless rate was unchanged in January at 7.8 percent, while

the economy created 155,000 jobs, the same as in December,

according to economists polled by Reuters.

So it would be a huge surprise if the Fed were to do anything

other than reaffirm last month's decision to anchor short-term

interest rates in a range of zero to 0.25 percent and to keep

buying $85 billion of bonds each month to hold down long-term

rates.

The only question mark is whether the FOMC vote will be unani-

mous now that Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, who

opposes the current round of bond-buying, has rotated off the

panel, said Harm Bandholz, an economist with UniCredit Bank

in New York.

Most economists polled by Reuters expect the Fed to keep its

open-ended bond-buying programme in place well into next

year, even though the economic news flow and market confi-

dence are improving markedly.

True, Wednesday's preliminary report on fourth-quarter GDP is

likely to show that growth slowed to an annualised rate of 1.2

percent from 3.1 percent in the July-September period.

And the current quarter will also be soft as the expiry of a 2 per-

cent payroll tax cut is dampening consumer spending.

But then Bandholz expects an average growth rate of 2.8 per-

cent over the rest of the year. That would be the strongest

three-quarter period of the recovery so far, he said.

"The outlook has improved a lot in the U.S. I've been on the

cautious side for the last three years, but this time I'm a bit more

bullish," he said.

THE FED BIDES ITS TIME

The recovery in housing would add at least half a percentage

point to GDP growth in 2013, while capital spending was likely

to revive now that uncertainty over budget talks in Washington

had been largely allayed, Bandholz said.

"There's a lot of pent-up demand in the system. I don't think all

these investments have been abandoned; they've just been

postponed," he said.

At some point, investors' exuberance over the super-easy

stance of the world's major central banks will give way to wor-

ries that they are about to take away the punch bowl.

Gustavo Reis, an economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch

in New York, said concerns about the costs of money-printing

were likely to spread but would be offset by uncertainty over the

impact on growth of fiscal tightening in the United States and

Europe.

"All told, although global activity seems more robust now than at

any point in 2012, we expect policymakers to continue to worry

predominantly about downside risks," he said in a note.

The bank does not expect the Fed to consider halting asset

purchases before 2014, while the latest episode of monetary

easing announced by the Bank of Japan is likely to be 'long-

lived and significant'.

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GENERAL NEWS (Continued)

Many economists argue that bold monetary action is long over-

due in Japan, whose nominal output has not grown in 20 years,

saddling the government with a debt-to-GDP ratio of more than

220 percent.

But Douglas McWilliams, who heads the Centre for Economics

and Business Research, a London consultancy, fears Japan's

decision will lead the global economy into unpredictable cur-

rency wars.

"It's a bit like if someone's rude to you, you're rude to them back.

You get tit-for-tat behaviour," McWilliams said.

CURRENCY FRICTION, BUT NO WAR

Olivier Blanchard, the chief economist of the International Mone-

tary Fund, last week called talk of currency wars overblown and

said countries had to pull the right policy levers to get their

economies back on track, with corresponding consequences for

exchange rates.

However, McWilliams said the problem was that it was difficult

to get countries to agree NOT to wage currency wars.

Tellingly, Chancellor Angela Merkel voiced German concerns

last week that Japan might be deliberately seeking to cheapen

the yen to give its exporters a competitive edge.

"So we may well find that there is a period of very heavy volatil-

ity before the authorities involved try and get some kind of

agreement," McWilliams said.

In a relatively quiet week for economic data in the euro zone -

money supply figures and confidence surveys from the Euro-

pean Commission are the highlights - the focus is likely to re-

main squarely on the euro, which has been rising briskly as trad-

ers price in the policy shifts that Blanchard had in mind.

While the Fed and the Bank of Japan are expanding their bal-

ance sheets, the European Central Bank is starting to soak up

some of the emergency cash it lent to banks a year ago.

The central bank said on Friday that banks would repay early

137 billion euros of cheap borrowed money.

"I'm not sure if we have too strong a euro for the moment but

certainly we would not want to see a currency war of competitive

devaluations which would have a negative effect on the euro,"

the European Union's top monetary official, Olli Rehn, told

Reuters.

U.S. home prices see best yearly gain since 2006

NEW YORK, Jan 29 (Reuters) - U.S. home prices rose in No-

vember, climbing more than five percent from a year ago in the

biggest increase since August 2006 when the housing market

was starting to collapse.

Data on consumer confidence on Tuesday was less encourag-

ing, with moods falling to their lowest level in more than a year

as Americans became more pessimistic about the economic

outlook and their financial prospects in the wake of higher taxes

for many.

In a fresh sign the housing sector is on the mend, the S&P/Case

Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas gained 0.6

percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, in line with

economists' forecasts.

Prices in the 20 cities rose 5.5 percent year over year, making

for the strongest yearly price increase in more than six years

when prices were on their way down.

The housing market became a bright spot for the economy last

year as prices rose and inventory tightened, and the sector is

expected to contribute to economic growth in 2013.

"What we're seeing is really a gradual improvement in the over-

all economy," said Anthony Chan, chief economist for Chase

Private Client in New York.

Rising home prices and recent gains in the stock market should

blunt the impact of tax increases for consumers and spending

should improve by the second half of the year, said Chan.

Homebuyers also have been enticed by historically low interest

rates. The Federal Reserve's latest stimulus efforts are helping

to keep rates low, as the central bank buys assets including

mortgage-backed securities.

The Fed meets on Tuesday for the first session of a two-day

meeting, with a statement due on Wednesday.

It was the 10th month in a row that prices have increased, the

longest string of gains since before 2006. Last year's rise in

prices beat a nine-month consecutive run in 2009 and 2010,

when the market was boosted by a homebuyer tax credit.

Home prices on a non-adjusted basis slipped 0.1 percent. The

non-adjusted numbers showed prices fell in about half of the

cities covered by the report, with the winter months typically a

weak period for housing, the survey said.

Phoenix, which saw its housing market rebound sharply last

year, led with the biggest yearly gain at 22.8 percent. New York

was the only city to fall, down 1.2 percent from the previous

year.

Graphic - U.S. home prices: http://link.reuters.com/rem34t

Graphic - Consumer confidence: http://link.reuters.com/pum34t

A number of challenges remain for the housing market, includ-

ing tight access to mortgages and on-going foreclosures.

Highlighting the hurdles on the path to recovery, separate gov-

ernment data showed the homeownership rate slipped to 65.4

percent in the fourth quarter from 65.5 percent.

Consumer attitudes dropped more than expected to 58.6 in

January, data from The Conference Board showed. It was the

lowest level since November 2011.

At the start of the year, U.S. politicians came to an agreement

that averted the so-called fiscal cliff of spending cuts and tax

increases that had been set to come into effect.

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6

GENERAL NEWS (Continued)

But the deal did raise taxes for many Americans, while a payroll

tax holiday came to an end. Lawmakers still face a number of

budget decisions.

"Consumers are probably pretty unhappy to notice that their

payroll taxes have gone up," said David Sloan, economist at

4Cast Ltd in New York.

U.S. stocks pared slight gains immediately after the report was

released, but Wall Street was mostly higher by the afternoon.

The Conference Board's consumer expectations index tumbled

to its lowest level since October 2011 at 59.5, while the present

situation measure slipped to 57.3.

Consumers' views on the labor market were also weaker, with

the "jobs hard to get" gauge rising for the first time since Sep-

tember.

Economists said the pain should be short lived and that confi-

dence was likely to perk back up as long as Washington can

come to an agreement on the budget issues yet to be resolved.

"This might bounce back pretty quickly as people get used to a

smaller paycheck. Right now, it's a sticker shock," said Craig

Dismuke, chief economic strategist at Vining Sparks in Mem-

phis, Tennessee.

Anglo American's $4 bln hit clears decks for new CEO

LONDON, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Anglo American took a $4 billion

hit to its Minas Rio project on Tuesday, clearing the decks for

new boss Mark Cutifani and indicating that the delayed Brazilian

operation will eventually get off the ground.

Minas Rio, which is now costing Anglo more than three times its

original estimates, has been seen as Anglo's most significant

failure of recent years and is partly responsible for costing out-

going chief executive Cynthia Carroll her job.

The writedown to the valuation of the huge iron ore project and

a jump in the bill for its development to $8.8 billion, alongside a

planned overhaul for the company's troubled platinum business,

are as near to a clean slate as new CEO Cutifani is going to get.

Shares in Anglo American gained 2.2 percent to 19.14 pounds

($30.06), topping Britain's blue-chip leader board in midday trad-

ing after the announcement of the impairment charge.

"The Minas Rio impairments give the incoming CEO a clean

slate, creating a degree of positive sentiment," Bernstein analyst

Paul Gait said.

"The greater detail and clarity on the progress of Minas Rio can

only increase the confidence around the executability and deliv-

ery of the project."

Designed to help to diversify a company that was still dependent

on South Africa for the bulk of its revenue, Minas Rio was

bought by Anglo for $5.5 billion in two stages in 2007 and 2008.

BRUISING

But the project, which had been valued on Anglo's balance

sheet at $9.6 billion before the writedown, has turned out to be

a bruising top-of-the-market deal, hit in part by inflationary costs

linked to Brazil's hosting of the soccer World Cup next year and

the Olympics in 2016.

The company said it still aims to ship its first iron ore by the end

of 2014 and gave further details on the project's progress, con-

firming that two grinding mills had been installed and 50 percent

of a pipeline had been laid.

"This asset has been a constant disappointment in terms of

project delivery and I think it was largely expected that we would

get this sort of writedown," Nomura International analyst Sam

Catalano said.

However, delivering on Minas Rio is not the only challenge fac-

ing Anglo's new boss.

Cutifani, a former coal miner who joins the company from Jo-

hannesburg-based AngloGold Ashanti , must also grapple with

the difficulties of executing Anglo American Platinum's

(Amplats) overhaul.

Anglo, for which South Africa still accounts for more than half its

forecast earnings, owns 80 percent of Amplats, a company in

the midst of a restructuring plan that could lead to 14,000 job

cuts. Analysts at Citi warned that more bad news could pre-

cede Cutifani's start date, with concerns also lingering around

its copper operations. They warned that the company could

choose to clean house by taking action on other legacy prob-

lems before Cutifani takes the helm.

WRITEDOWNS

Anglo's announcement is the latest in a spate of writedowns on

miners' misjudged investments, serving as a reminder of the

sector's poor record in creating value through deals. The result

for the incoming generation of mining bosses is likely to be far

fewer deals.

Rio Tinto ousted its chief executive, Tom Albanese, on Jan. 17

and took $14 billion in impairments tied to its underperforming

Mozambican coal and Canadian aluminium operations.

Other mining companies, such as BHP Billiton , are also likely to

write down underperforming assets as low prices and rising

costs eat into valuations.

Among Minas Rio's various problems has been a string of de-

lays and costs overruns, partly linked to Brazil's permitting proc-

ess.

Carroll, speaking to journalists in a call before she hands the

reins to Cutifani on April 3, was confident that the company

would not receive any more surprises on Minas Rio.

"The issues we face going forward have much lower risk than

the issues that we were facing in the past," she said, adding that

of the 300 permits and licences the project required, there are

only 17 remaining.

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7

GENERAL NEWS (Continued)

The $8.8 billion capital expenditure figure for the project in-

cludes an additional $600 million risk contingency sum to cover

a potential escalation of land costs and mining inflation, Carroll

said.

Aquarius Platinum production rises

Jan 29 (Reuters) - Miner Aquarius Platinum said quarterly pro-

duction rose 10 percent, but the company added that cash gen-

eration for the precious platinum remained "constrained" at cur-

rent spot prices.

The world's fourth largest platinum producer said output rose to

78,987 ounces in the second quarter ended Dec. 31, from

71,954 ounces last year.

Production attributable to Aquarius at its main operation - Kroon-

dal located in the northwest province of South Africa - rose 18

percent.

South Africa is the source of between three-quarters and four-

fifths of the world's platinum, but its mining industry has been hit

by a wave of strikes in the last year, some of which have been

accompanied by deadly violence.

Mining companies have struggled to maintain profitability as

costs rise, while prices remain hurt by reduced demand from

carmakers, the leading consumers of the white metal used in

catalytic converters.

"It is against this backdrop that management continues to focus

on cash preservation and operational stability and improve-

ments," Aquarius said in a statement.

Aquarius said price improvements for platinum and a weak

South African rand is expected to substantially reduce cash con-

sumption.

Cash costs at Kroondal fell 7 percent in the second quarter.

Last year, Aquarius Platinum suspended production at two of its

mines in South Africa - Marikana and Everest - citing low plati-

num prices.

Shares in the company closed at 68.25 pence on Monday on

the London Stock Exchange. They have gained more than two-

thirds in value since the end of the first quarter in September.

Its Australia-listed shares closed down 0.5 percent to A$1.045

on Tuesday.

Demand for India's silver jewellery exports picks up sharply

MUMBAI, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Steep growth in India's silver ex-

ports is outpacing its other trade in precious metals as world

demand picks up, albeit for cheaper jewellery options.

Shipments are likely ro rise by up to 30 percent this year, trade

body officials said on Tuesday

"At such high prices, gold is going out of budget for many

youngsters ... a wrist bracelet of white gold is now replaced with

sterling silver as it is cheaper," said Pankaj Kumar Parekh, vice-

chairman of the Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council

(GJEPC). Shipments of gems and jewellery constituted 14 per-

cent of India's total exports, and employ 3.4 million workers,

with the Middle East taking most of the market.

Silver exports are likely to to go up by 25-30 percent this year

against $797 million a year ago while gems and jewellery ex-

ports are expected to rise 15 percent against $38.28 billion

worth of overseas shipments in the previous year.

The GJEPC expects robust sales from the United States, which

contributed to 11 percent of exports."From the U.S., demand

and consumer confidence are very encouraging... this market

will play a major role in gems and jewellery exports," said Vipul

Shah, chairman of the GJEPC, adding they have been focus-

sing in other growth areas like the United States, China, Russia

and Australia.

The body, which represents more than 5,000 members, also

hoped the government will reduce import duty on refined gold

bars in the budget on Feb. 28. Exporters generally take duty

free gold from lending banks, but they need to give margin

money, which includes import duty and value added tax to take

a gold loan from banks. The margin money, which is blocked for

a maximum of 90 days until payment from importers is proved,

has increased more than threefold after the duty hike was im-

plemented.

"Increase in import has an impact on export transaction cost,"

said Parekh, adding "hand to mouth exporters will have to re-

strict their business due to additional requirement of margin

money to take care of additional import duty."

The trade body wants the federal government to allow a duty

free import quota of 15 percent of the previous year's exports. In

January 2012, the government levied a 2 percent import duty on

cut and polished diamonds.

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8

INSIDE METALS January 30, 2013

MARKET NEWS

Tajik aluminium smelter cuts 2012 output to 272,500 T

DUSHANBE, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Tajikistan Aluminium Company

(TALCO) cut output by 1.8 percent to 272,500 tonnes last year

after Central Asia's largest aluminium smelter was hit by a tem-

porary halt of natural gas supplies from neighbouring Uzbeki-

stan.

"We should give the plant's management their due. They man-

aged to keep aluminium output steady. They had no gas, but

they found alternative fuel. Well done," Tajik Economy Minister

Sharif Rakhimzoda told a news conference on Tuesday.

Uzbekistan, the only supplier of gas to Tajikistan, cut shipments

for 15 days last April, causing a 4.6 percent month-on-month

decline in output.

To avoid this in the future, TALCO last summer bought in China

and assembled an installation allowing to process locally pro-

duced coal into methane. Uzbekistan, which has strained rela-

tions with its much poorer Central Asian neighbour, completely

cut natural gas supplies to Tajikistan on Jan. 1, 2013.

"TALCO has no plans to lower output in the current year," said

Rakhimzoda, who declined to give figures for planned produc-

tion. Aluminium exports remain vital for Tajikistan, a Muslim

nation of 7.5 million which borders China and Afghanistan. The

metal accounts for more than 40 percent of all Tajik export reve-

nues, official data show.

HSBC raises 2013 copper price outlook on tighter market

Jan 29 (Reuters) - HSBC raised its 2013 copper price forecast

on Tuesday, saying it expects positive sentiment to drive prices

for the metal in a structurally balanced market. The bank lifted

its 2013 forecast for the average cash copper price to $8,000

per tonne from $7,500 to reflect the metal's relatively good start

to the year.

"Copper, perennially described as fundamentally tight, actually

finished 2012 posting a gain in inventories," analyst Andrew

Keen said in a note to clients. "This market remains balanced in

our view, and this is enough to keep prices high when sentiment

is good."

Benchmark three month copper futures on the London Metal

Exchange (LME) were at $8,066 a tonne at around 1000 GMT

on Tuesday. HSBC raised its aluminium price forecast by

about 5 percent to $2,250 per tonne , but maintained its view

that prices would remain around this level due to a continued

structural surplus.

"It would not take a revolution in the rate of global demand

growth to fix the structural surplus in aluminium," analyst Keen

said. Keen expects aluminium to be in a 5.9 million tonnes sur-

plus over the 2012-2016 period, with the excess absorbed by a

compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.2 percent for global

demand, and the market could be brought back into balance in

one good year of demand. Three months aluminium on the

LME was at $2,056 a tonne on Tuesday.

The bank also raised its iron ore price forecasts for this year to

$123 per tonne from $105 earlier, saying that the market was

probably driven by seasonal restocking by Chinese mills and

short-term concerns over supply. The bank said, however, that it

believes the lack of marginal cost support will see weakness for

iron ore later in 2013.

Antofagasta's 2012 copper production beats target

LONDON, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Chilean miner Antofagasta posted

2012 production ahead of its target and said it expected to main-

tain output at the same level in 2013. Antofagasta, a FTSE 100

company, said on Wednesday that 2012 copper production

came in at 709,600 tonnes, beating a full-year forecast of

700,000 tonnes, and 11 percent higher than the previous year.

Fourth quarter production was helped by a more reliable per-

formance at its key growth project, the Esperanza mine, which

has been hit by nagging operational problems.

The company has said it would need to spend up to $250 million

over this year and next to improve processes at the copper-gold

mine. The cost of producing each unit of metal in the fourth

quarter was in line with forecasts, said the company. It added

that costs would rise in 2013 to around 140 cents per pound

from 103 cents per pound last year due to higher on-site costs

at Esperanza and another mine, Los Pelambres.

Antofagasta, which has been listed on the London stock ex-

change since 1888, also said it produced 299,900 ounces of

gold in 2012, 52 percent higher than in 2011, but forecast that

gold production in the coming year would come in lower at

260,000 ounces.

A review of another copper mine, Minera Antucoya, was still

underway, Antofagasta said, having halted development at the

$1.7 billion project in December to assess escalating costs of at

the project. Antofagasta is one of a number of miners, including

industry heavyweights BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto , who are

reviewing tens of billions of dollars of new projects as margins

become squeezed by stubbornly high costs and weaker prices

for key commodities. Shares in the company closed at 1,275

pence on Wednesday, valuing the company at 12.6 billion

pounds

Vale sees iron ore at $110-$180/Tonne - CFO

RIO DE JANEIRO, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Emerging-market demand

for iron ore, which accounts for 90 percent of the profit at Brazil-

ian miner Vale , will keep prices between $110 and $180 per

tonne over the long term, Chief Financial Officer Luciano Siani

said Tuesday. Vale has struggled with falling iron ore prices,

which touched three-year lows in September of 2012 and forced

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9

MARKET NEWS (Continued)

it and other big miners to reassess the costs of holding on to

unprofitable operations. Earlier on Tuesday, miner Anglo Ameri-

can announced it would take a $4 billion writedown on its Minas

Rio iron ore project in Brazil.

Mining giant Rio Tinto ousted its chief executive, Tom Al-

banese, on Jan. 17 after it took $14 billion in impairments tied to

its underperforming Mozambican coal and Canadian aluminum

operations.

Analysts say Vale has had its share of problem investments

ranging from its Rio Colorado potash project in Argentina to its

massive Simandou iron ore project in Guinea. When asked

about those projects, Siani said Vale was "not afraid to write off

non-performing assets."

He said during a meeting of institutional investors in Rio de Ja-

neiro that the company plans to reduce its 50 percent stake in

the CSP steel mill project in the northeastern city of Pecem, in

which South Korea's Dungkuk holds 30 percent and Posco the

remaining 20 percent.

"We are excited about this mill because of the growing demand

for steel in the northeast of Brazil," Siani said. "But our goal is

not to be a steelmaker." Vale plans to spend more than $400

million on the project in 2013. Vale has taken stakes in steel

mills in the past in exchange for long-term, iron-ore supply con-

tracts. In order to avoid competing with its iron ore clients, Vale

does not plan to manage the mill and hopes to cut its share to a

minority stake, Siani said.

TWO-SPEED GLOBAL INDUSTRY

Roberto Castello-Branco, Vale's head of investor relations, said

earlier in the day that prices for iron ore would be supported by

growth in markets such as China. He estimated industrial pro-

duction - an indicator of demand for steel and its main compo-

nent iron ore - to grow by about 7 percent in emerging markets

in 2013 but remain flat in developed countries. He added that

iron ore stocks in China, the world's largest importer of ore, re-

mained low.

Spot China-landed iron ore prices have rebounded in recent

months to nearly $150 a tonne. Speaking at the same event as

Siani in Rio de Janeiro, Itau BBA analyst Marco Assumpcão

said he saw iron ore prices easing to between $95 and $120 a

tonne in the coming years. "Our outlook is a bit more optimistic

than Itau BBA," Siani said. "We want to recover the market

share we lost.

Vale shares closed up 1 percent on Tuesday after the company

said it would submit to its board a proposal for shareholder divi-

dends of at least $4 billion this year, or two-thirds of the mini-

mum dividends approved in 2012, after a global slowdown and a

drop in iron ore prices. In 2011, Vale paid shareholders a record

$9 billion in dividends, but weaker iron ore demand has made

the miner more cautious about the year ahead. Vale said in De-

cember it will invest $16.3 billion in 2013, down 24 percent from

its 2012 capital spending budget.

Metalloinvest cuts steel billet output as Iran sanctions bite

MIAMI, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Russian steel and raw materials pro-

ducer Metalloinvest is reducing its steel billet production as

Iran's sanctions hit sales of this product and is increasing its pig

iron output instead, a company executive said on Tuesday.

Sanctions imposed by the European Union last autumn on sales

of steel and other key materials to Iran have prompted most

traders and producers to halt sales and have hit hard Russian

steel producers, which were heavily reliant on the Iranian mar-

ket.

"Before Iran was our main market for billet but as you know Iran

is now sanctioned and we cannot do anything there so we de-

cided to hold billet production and make more pig iron," Vak-

htang Kocharov, a senior iron trader at Metalloinvest Trading,

said in an interview on the sidelines of a CRU Ryan's Notes

Metallics meeting.

Kocharov trades hot briquetted iron (HBI), pig iron, and direct

reduced iron (DRI). The CRU Ryan's meeting brings together

suppliers and consumers of pig iron, HBI and DRI.

Metalloinvest, controlled by Russia's richest man Alisher Us-

manov, currently produces about 100,000 tonnes of pig iron per

month and it forecast it will be able to double the amount it can

sell within the next couple of years, as less of this steel raw ma-

terial will be used to produce billet. Kocharov underlined that the

switch from billet production to pig iron production was not final

as things might change based on the political situation in Iran.

HBI BOOST

Metalloinvest, which is the main supplier of HBI, another steel

raw material, to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)

and the European market, is also investing to expand its HBI

production from 2.4 million tonnes a year currently to 4.2 million

tonnes by 2016. The Russian producer is now looking to in-

crease its sales of both pig iron and HBI in markets such as the

United States, also taking advantage of supply difficulties affect-

ing Venezuela, historically the world's top HBI supplier.

"The U.S. market is one of the markets with biggest potential for

us; we are trying to connect with some new clients here in the

US," Kocharov said. "For the last three to four years Venezuela

has been facing huge problems with production but they are still

offering aggressively. Of course if they shrink production further

we will have more chances to get into this market."

Venezuela disposes of large amounts of shale gas and iron, the

key ingredient to produce DRI and HBI, but it has been a very

unstable producer in the last few years, especially since most of

the industry was nationalised in 2009.

Although the country disposes of an HBI capacity of about 7

million tonnes a year for example, it only produced about 2 mil-

lion tonnes in 2012 and is expected to produce a similar amount

next year.

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10

MARKET NEWS (Continued)

This was mainly due to the lack of investment, which has al-

ready caused some domestic plants to shut down in recent

years, and a lack of iron ore pellets, market players said.

"A couple of old mills closed completely in the last four years

and it seems that (the government) is not interested in investing

money to restart production. If the political situation remains as it

is now I think more and more mills will face the same problems,"

Kocharov said. Asked about prices, the trader said he hoped the

average for 2013 to be around current offers of $330 to $340

per tonne FOB Black Sea for HBI and $400 to $410 FOB Black

Sea for pig iron. Transport to the United States is around $20

per tonne, he added.

Italy steel output could fall in 2013 on strong euro

MILAN, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Italian steel production in 2013 is not

expected to improve from last year and could even worsen if the

euro strengthens, the head of Italy's steel makers association

said on Tuesday. "It's very unlikely production this year will beat

last year's result and could even be something less because of

the exchange rate war we are seeing," Antonio Gozzi said at a

presentation.

In 2012 Italian steel production fell 5.2 percent to 27.2 million

tonnes, Federacciai said. Gozzi said he did not see any steel

plant closures on the horizon but acknowledged some compa-

nies would have to "rationalise" their businesses to meet com-

petition through cost cuts, mergers and other measures.

China's refined zinc imports to stay strong on financing

demand

HONG KONG, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Chinese investors, who

boosted zinc imports by almost 50 percent last year, will con-

tinue to use the metal as a financing tool in 2013, a move that

would support global premiums of the metal but curb domestic

production, traders said on Tuesday. China is the world's big-

gest consumer and producer of refined zinc, and Australia was

its biggest supplier in 2012.

Last year, investors took to buying zinc in addition to copper to

raise money, and purchases increased around the fourth quarter

of 2012 as the arbitrage between Chinese zinc prices and the

London Metal Exchange briefly opened, while the arbitrage for

copper closed, traders said. In a typical purchase of copper or

zinc for financing, an importer puts down a deposit at a bank to

obtain a letter of credit (LC) to buy the metal, and then resells

the metal to obtain cash. The importer then pays the bank loan

over a period of 3 to 9 months. China's refined zinc imports

surged 47.6 percent year-on-year to 513,624 tonnes in 2012,

according to official data, which also showed that refined copper

imports reached a record of 3.4 million tonnes.

The arbitrage for zinc is so far closed, traders said, but investors

have stayed keen on imports, especially as zinc stocks are

smaller than those of copper. Around 900,000 to 1 million ton-

nes of refined copper are estimated to be in bonded ware-

houses in Shanghai in the beginning of this year versus about

300,000 tonnes a year ago.

Zinc stocks in Shanghai warehouses, however, stood at around

500,000 to 600,000 tonnes. The stocks included metal moni-

tored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange and bonded stocks,

which have arrived in Shanghai and not yet been declared for

China's 17 percent value-added tax.

"People are watching zinc prices closely. Once the price differ-

entials are not too bad, they would open the LCs quickly and

import," said a sales manager at a Chinese trading company.

"Our firm imported zinc for financing. Some firms which im-

ported copper for financing have been using zinc because the

losses incurred from the imports were lower than copper," said

the manager, who declined to be named as he was not author-

ised to talk to the media. "Copper stocks are large, so people

believe the risk of importing copper is bigger than zinc."

COPPER IS THE FINANCING KING

Spot zinc this week traded at premiums of about $120 to $130

to China versus less than $100 in the first half of 2012. Chinese

importers and overseas suppliers have agreed term premiums

of about $120 per tonne over the cash LME prices for 2013

zinc shipments, up from about $85 to $90 for 2012 shipments,

traders said.

An increase in zinc imports by China could weigh on domestic

prices, forcing smelters to slow production, said Feng Juncong,

a senior analyst at state-backed research firm Antaike, adding

smelters may delay 300,000 tonnes of new capacity this year.

"Financing imports for zinc would continue this year, probably

an average of 30,000 to 50,000 tonnes a month. Smelters

would have to cut production. They have no other way to go,"

she said. "Prices are too low to produce."

The nearest-month zinc contract of Shanghai Futures Ex-

change , which typically reflects spot prices, traded at 15,430

yuan ($2,500) per tonne on Tuesday, down 1.7 percent from the

2012 high seen in February last year and a fall of 23.3 percent

from the 2011 high, also in February of that year.

China is expected to produce around 5 million tonnes of refined

zinc in 2013, an increase of 3.3 percent from 2012, Feng said.

Consumption is also expected to rise by 3 percent to around 5.6

million tonnes in 2013. Even though it may appear to be more

attractive now, zinc is unlikely to replace copper as the main

financing tool for domestic importers because the copper trade

is more liquid than zinc in China, allowing buyers to swiftly resell

the metal and obtain cash quickly, traders said. "If importers

cannot resell zinc fast, they would face big problems," said a

trader at an international brokerage who requested anonymity.

INSIDE METALS January 30, 2013

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12

MARKET REVIEW

METALS-LME copper hits near 3-wk peak on global growth

hopes

SINGAPORE, Jan 30 (Reuters) - London copper rose to nearly

a three-week high as traders opened new long positions on cop-

per on hopes for improving global growth, while looking ahead

to results from a Federal Reserve meeting and Chinese factory

data.

While the global economy is showing fresh signs of life, traders

are looking for confirmation from top consumer China's manu-

facturing sector this week before Lunar New Year holidays start

next month. Copper has been trapped in a band of $7,920 to

$8,250 a tonne since a new year rally fizzled out.

"There are expectations for mildly dovish sentiment today that

are weighing on the dollar and that's why we're seeing some

gains across commodities," said commodities analyst Natalie

Robertson of ANZ in Melbourne.

"Copper is also trading a little more cautiously ahead of the Chi-

nese new year. As a result we won't be expecting such a huge

price rally on the back of China's factory figures, but it will cer-

tainly be supportive if they improve as expected."

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange had

climbed 0.51 percent to $8,144 a tonne by 0701 GMT, after

earlier hitting $8,159 -- its highest since Jan. 11. LME copper

closed up 0.66 percent on Tuesday.

Traders said speculators had been adding to long positions

since Monday with volume trade of more than 5,000 lots over

the session .

The most-traded May copper contract on the Shanghai Futures

Exchange climbed about 1 percent to end at 59,260 yuan

($9,500) a tonne. It earlier marked its highest point since Sept.

28 at 59,400 yuan a tonne.

U.S. home prices rose in November, climbing more than 5 per-

cent from a year ago in the biggest increase since August 2006

when the housing market was starting to collapse, bolstering the

outlook for the global economy.

Market focus is now on the Fed's monetary policy committee,

with the central bank expected to confirm it will keep up $85

billion in monthly bond buying until unemployment rates drop

significantly, although officials have shown concern over side

effects from such measures.

In Europe, shares were set to open flat.

"Rising housing prices in the U.S. and a late December spike in

lumber prices certainly indicate the U.S. recovery is underway,

but we still need confirmation from China that things are improv-

ing," said RBC Capital in a note.

China's factory activity in January, scheduled for release on

Friday, probably expanded at its fastest pace in nine months,

adding to signs that recovery momentum is building as domestic

demand strengthens.

"We may well have to wait until after the Chinese Lunar New

Year holidays to see the big move we have been expecting in

metal prices," it added.

MARKETS NEWS

A stronger euro was aiding the uplift in metals. Euro bulls were

battling to break 14-month peaks versus the dollar and trip op-

tion barriers at $1.3500. A break beyond this level could spark a

fresh rally in metals, traders said.

"Based on momentum, the euro looks certain to keep rising.

Today is the FOMC so anything goes ... but the upside (on met-

als) looks very real," a Singapore-based trader said.

A weaker dollar makes metals cheaper for holders of other cur-

rencies.

"The USD could well correct further if today's US Q4 GDP re-

lease confirms the ongoing economic recovery while the Fed

retains its dovish tone ... We are overall positive on EUR/USD

and expect 1.38 in 3 months," said Credit Suisse in a note.

PRECIOUS-Gold fights to hold ground above key level, Fed

in focus

SINGAPORE, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Gold fought to hold steady

above a key technical level after snapping a four-day slide in

the previous session on hopes the U.S. Federal Reserve would

opt to continue with monetary stimulus.

The central bank is expected to confirm in a statement at 1915

GMT that it will keep up $85 billion in monthly bond buying until

unemployment rates drop significantly, although officials have

shown concern over side effects from such measures.

Investors are also waiting for nonfarm payrolls data on Friday

for a close look at the U.S. labour market. Economists sur-

veyed by Reuters expect steady hiring from employers in Janu-

ary, helping unemployment to stand unchanged from a month

earlier at 7.8 percent.

Recent data showing signs of a steady economic recovery has

depressed sentiment towards gold, a safe haven popular in

times of economic and political distress.

"In the short term, gold will struggle because the U.S. data will

continue to be pretty good," said Jeremy Friesen, commodity

strategist at Societe Generale in Hong Kong.

But he added that the global inflation outlook is firming due to

ultra-loose monetary policies adopted by central banks in key

economies, which will benefit gold as an inflation hedge.

"Growth looks better so the market is shifting out of risky low-

yield asset or zero-yield assets to equities, but inflation con-

cerns are opposing that and may be sustaining some interest in

gold."

INSIDE METALS January 30, 2013

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13

MARKET REVIEW (Continued)

Rising oil prices may also stoke worries about inflation. Bench-

mark Brent crude matched a more than three-month high hit

the session before.

Spot gold had edged up 0.2 percent to $1,666.44 an ounce by

0619 GMT. It rose above the key 200-day moving average in

the previous session, which stood just below $1,663.

U.S. gold was up 0.3 percent at $1,666.

Reuters market analyst Wang Tao said that technical analysis

suggested spot gold may hover around $1,662 an ounce for one

session or retrace moderately before climbing again towards

$1,669.

Graphic: Spot gold 24-hour technical outlook

http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/WT1/20133001094740.jpg

Purchases in Asia's physical market were slow, as buyers that

beefed up their inventories earlier in the month moved to the

sidelines, waiting for clear direction in prices.

"We see some buying from Shanghai, but overall the volume is

small," said Peter Fung, head of dealing at Wing Fung Precious

Metals in Hong Kong. "There is no direction and gold will remain

in a range between $1,620 and $1,700."

A recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields helped weigh on gold sen-

timent as investors unwind their safe-haven buying, Fung

added.

In other metals, spot platinum rose 0.4 percent to $1,682.24,

headed for a second straight session of gains, shrugging off

news that Anglo American Platinum , the world's top platinum

producer, has delayed job cuts to allow time for talks with the

South African government and unions.

Spot silver was flat at $31.38.

India's silver jewellery exports are expected to jump up to 30

percent this year as world demand picks up, said India's Gems

and Jewellery Export Promotion Council.

FOREX-Yen under pressure, falls to 2-1/2 yr low versus

dollar

LONDON, Jan 30 (Reuters) - The dollar rose to a fresh 2-1/2

year high against the yen bolstered by widening spreads be-

tween U.S. Treasuries and Japanese government bond yields

amid expectations of more aggressive easing by the Bank of

Japan in coming months.

The dollar was up 0.6 percent at 91.32 yen , with traders citing

option expiries at 91.50 yen which could sway trade.

The euro was also 0.7 percent higher at 123.30 yen , with inves-

tors targetting its April 2011 high of 123.33 yen.

(Inside Metals is compiled by Shruthi G in Bangalore) For questions and comments on Inside Metals click here Your subscription: To find out more and register for our free commodities newsletters, click here Privacy statement: To find out more about how we may collect, use and share your personal information please read our privacy statement here To unsubscribe to this newsletter click here

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INSIDE METALS January 30, 2013