ILUTE Integrated Land Use – Transportation Modelling

41
ILUTE Integrated Land Use – Transportation Modelling Eric J. Miller, Ph.D. Professor & Director Cities Centre, University of Toronto Presented at: Travel Demand Modelling in the GTHA: Current Capabilities & Future Prospects A Technical Workshop University of Toronto, June 24, 2009

Transcript of ILUTE Integrated Land Use – Transportation Modelling

ILU

TE

Inte

gra

ted

La

nd

Use

Tra

nsp

ort

ati

on

Mo

del

lin

g

Eri

c J.

Mil

ler,

Ph

.D.

Pro

fess

or

& D

irec

tor

Cit

ies

Cen

tre,

Un

iver

sity

of

To

ron

to

Pre

sen

ted

at:

Tra

vel

Dem

and

Mo

del

lin

gin

th

e G

TH

A:

Cu

rren

t C

apab

ilit

ies

& F

utu

re P

rosp

ects

A T

ech

nic

al W

ork

sho

p

Un

iver

sity

of

To

ron

to, Ju

ne

24

, 2

009

ILU

TE

Tra

nsp

ort

atio

n a

nd u

rban

form

are

fundam

enta

lly l

inked

. H

ow

we

buil

d o

ur

city

dir

ectl

y

det

erm

ines

tra

vel

nee

ds,

via

bil

ity

of

alte

rnat

ive

trav

el m

odes

, et

c.

Tra

nsp

ort

atio

n, in

turn

, in

fluen

ces

land d

evel

opm

ent

and l

oca

tion

choic

es o

f peo

ple

& f

irm

s.

ILU

TE

Lan

d U

se

Models

Fo

rmal

mo

del

s w

hic

h t

ry t

o c

aptu

re t

he

tran

spo

rtat

ion

-la

nd

use

in

tera

ctio

n a

re u

sual

ly

refe

rred

to

as

lan

d u

se m

od

els,

in

teg

rate

d l

an

d

use

-tr

an

spo

rta

tio

n m

od

els

, o

r in

teg

rate

d

urb

an

mo

del

s.

Su

ch m

od

els

hav

e ex

iste

d s

ince

th

e ea

rly

19

60

’s.

Th

ey h

ave

had

mix

ed s

ucc

ess,

wit

h t

he

resu

lt

that

rel

ativ

ely f

ew u

rban

are

as c

urr

entl

y u

se

form

al m

od

els.

Inte

gra

ted

urb

an m

od

els,

ho

wev

er, ar

e re

ceiv

ing

incr

easi

ng

att

enti

on

an

d a

re b

ein

g a

ctiv

ely u

sed

in m

any

U.S

. &

Eu

rop

ean

cit

ies.

ILU

TE

What is

an inte

gra

ted m

odel?

An

in

teg

rate

d u

rban

mo

del

is

inte

nd

ed t

o r

epre

sen

t th

e sp

atia

l ev

olu

tio

n o

f a

giv

en s

tud

y r

egio

n s

yst

em

stat

e o

ver

tim

e as

a f

un

ctio

n o

f v

ario

us

soci

o-e

con

om

ic, d

emo

gra

ph

ic

and

po

liti

cal

pro

cess

es. K

ey w

ord

s:

spat

ial;

tim

e, e

vo

luti

on

; so

cio

-eco

no

mic

, d

emo

gra

ph

ic,

po

liti

cal.

Lan

d

Dev

elopm

ent

Lo

cati

on

Choic

e

Act

ivit

y

Sch

edule

s

Act

ivit

y

Pat

tern

s

Tra

nsp

ort

atio

n

Net

work

Auto

mobil

e

Ow

ner

ship

Tra

vel

Dem

and

Net

work

Flo

ws

UR

BA

N A

CT

IVIT

Y S

YS

TE

MT

RA

NS

PO

RT

AT

ION

SY

ST

EM

Dem

ogra

phic

s

Reg

ional

Eco

nom

ics

Gover

nm

ent

Poli

cies

INP

UT

S

ILU

TE

What is

an inte

gra

ted m

odel?

An

urb

an r

egio

n’s

syst

em s

tate

is

hig

hly

mu

lti-

dim

ensi

onal

. I

t u

sual

ly i

ncl

ud

es:

•T

he

spat

ial

dis

trib

uti

on

of

the

resi

den

t p

op

ula

tio

n

•T

he

spat

ial

dis

trib

uti

on

of

the

reg

ion

’s e

mp

loy

men

t &

oth

er o

ut-

of-

ho

me

acti

vit

y l

oca

tio

ns

•P

erso

n t

rav

el w

ith

in t

he

reg

ion

du

ring

a r

epre

sen

tati

ve

tim

e p

erio

d (

e.g

., a

“ty

pic

al”

wee

kd

ay)

•F

low

s o

f g

oo

ds/

serv

ices

wit

hin

th

e re

gio

n d

uri

ng

a

rep

rese

nta

tiv

e ti

me

per

iod

ILU

TE

Why b

uild

in

tegra

ted

models

?In

teg

rate

d m

od

els

pro

vid

e th

e

op

po

rtu

nit

y t

o c

on

sist

entl

y a

nd

com

pre

hen

siv

ely

ex

plo

re t

he

inte

nd

ed

and

un

inte

nd

ed, in

terc

on

nec

ted

con

seq

uen

ces

of

tran

spo

rtat

ion

an

d l

and

use

po

lice

s in

co

mp

lex

urb

an r

egio

ns.

Wit

ho

ut

an i

nte

gra

ted

an

aly

sis

of

bo

th

lan

d u

se a

nd

tra

nsp

ort

atio

n,

may

wel

l

“mis

s”k

ey s

yst

em r

esp

on

ses,

an

d/o

r

ov

er/u

nd

er-e

stim

ate

the

syst

em r

esp

on

ses

wh

ich

are

bei

ng

ex

pli

citl

y m

od

elle

d.

Man

y “

tran

spo

rtat

ion

”is

sues

(es

pec

iall

y

wrt

sust

ain

abil

ity

) h

ave

thei

r o

rig

ins

(an

d

per

hap

s th

eir

solu

tio

ns

as w

ell)

in

lan

d

use

des

ign

.

ILU

TE

Exam

ple

Ap

plic

ation:

Ga

rdin

er

Expre

ssw

ay

Wh

at w

ould

be

the

imp

act

of

tear

ing d

ow

n t

he

Gar

din

er E

xpre

ssw

ay?

What

if

it w

asn

’t

rep

lace

d?

What

tra

nsi

t op

tion

s m

igh

t ex

ist?

Wh

at w

ould

be

the

imp

act

on

popu

lati

on

&

emp

loym

ent

dis

trib

uti

on

s? …

2005

evolve

2010

2030_B

2030_C

branch

and

evolve

Base

Year

Event

Year

Target Year

(Policy Option B)

Target Year

(Policy Option C)

2030_A

Target Year

(Policy Option A)

ILU

TE

Exam

ple

Applic

ation: P

laces to

Gro

w

What

wil

l be

the

impac

t of

a

gre

enbel

t on:

•housi

ng d

ensi

ty &

pri

ces?

•em

plo

ym

ent

conce

ntr

atio

n?

•tr

ansi

t via

bil

ity?

•co

nges

tion?

•em

issi

ons?

•…

ILU

TE

Non-M

odelli

ng A

ppro

aches

In t

he

abse

nce

of

form

al l

and u

se m

odel

s (t

he

usu

al c

ase)

, sc

enar

io-

bas

ed e

xtr

apola

tions

of

popula

tion a

nd e

mplo

ym

ent

by z

one

are

use

d

to p

rovid

e in

puts

to t

he

4-s

tage

trav

el d

eman

d m

odel

ling

syst

em.

Pro

ble

ms

wit

h t

his

appro

ach i

ncl

ude:

•S

cenar

ios

are

oft

en u

nre

alis

tic,

and/o

r in

tern

ally

inco

nsi

sten

t

•S

cenar

ios

are

oft

en i

nco

nsi

sten

t w

ith t

he

tran

sport

atio

n s

yst

em

•L

ack o

f “f

eedbac

k”

bet

wee

n l

and u

se a

nd t

ransp

ort

atio

n s

ecto

rs

•L

ack o

f det

ail

in a

ttri

bute

s of

popula

tion &

em

plo

ym

ent

•L

ack o

f poli

cy s

ensi

tivit

y

•S

epar

atio

n o

f la

nd u

se p

lannin

g f

rom

tra

nsp

ort

atio

n p

lannin

g

ILU

TE

Opera

tional M

odels

•S

ever

al o

per

atio

nal

in

tegra

ted

mo

del

s ar

e in

use

w

orl

d-w

ide.

T

hes

e in

clud

e:–

IRP

UD

/IL

UM

AS

S (

Mic

hae

l W

egen

er, D

ort

mu

nd

)

–M

EP

LA

N (

Mar

cial

Ech

iniq

ue,

Cam

bri

dge)

–T

RA

NU

S (

To

mas

de

la B

arra

, V

enes

ual

ia)

–P

EC

AS

(D

ou

g H

un

t, U

. o

f C

alg

ary

)

–M

US

SA

(F

ran

cisc

o M

arti

nez

, U

. o

f C

hil

e)

–U

rban

Sim

(Pau

l W

add

ell,

UC

Ber

kel

ey)

ILU

TE

ME

PL

AN

/

TR

AN

US

ILU

TE

Act

ivit

y

To

tals

Act

ivit

y

Lo

cati

on

s

Act

ivit

y

Inte

ract

ion

s

Tra

nsp

ort

Dem

and

s

Tra

nsp

ort

Su

pp

ly

flow

s

pri

ce

sig

nal

s

Lan

d a

nd

Flo

ors

pac

e

Su

pp

ly

Lab

or

and

Cap

ital

Su

pp

ly

En

vir

on

men

t

(ex

tern

alit

ies)

occ

up

anci

es

con

sum

pti

on

s

So

cial

Imp

acts

PE

CA

S

ILU

TE

MU

SS

A &

5-L

UT

Reg

ion

al I

/O

Mo

del

MU

SS

A

Po

pu

lati

on

By z

on

e

4-S

tep

Tra

vel

Mo

del

Acc

essi

bil

itie

s

By z

on

e

Rel

atio

nal

Dat

abas

e

Man

agem

ent

Syst

em:

•h

ou

seh

old

s

•fi

rms

•d

wel

lin

gs

•zo

nes

/lan

d

•ac

cess

ibil

itie

s

•...

ILU

TE

UR

BA

NS

IM

Model

Str

uctu

re

•D

iseq

uil

ibri

um

model

•H

ighly

dis

aggre

gat

ed

spat

iall

y

ILU

TE

Polic

y

Capabili

ties

of C

urr

ent

Inte

gra

ted

Models

ILU

TE

The ILU

TE

Modelin

g P

roje

ct

The

Univ

ersi

ty o

f

Toro

nto

is

work

ing o

n

mic

rosi

mula

tion

model

ling w

ithin

the

Inte

gra

ted L

and U

se,

Tra

nsp

ort

atio

n,

Envir

onm

ent

(IL

UT

E)

Model

ling P

roje

ct.

Flo

ws,

Tim

es,

etc.

Ex

tern

al I

mp

acts

Lan

d U

se

Lo

cati

on C

hoic

e

Auto

Ow

ner

ship

Act

ivit

y/T

rav

el &

Goods

Movem

ent

Dem

ogra

phic

s

Reg

ional

Eco

nom

ics

Gover

nm

ent

Poli

cies

Tra

nsp

ort

Sys

tem

Dyn

amic

Tra

ffic

Ass

ignm

ent

Model

ILU

TE

ILU

TE

Desig

n P

rincip

les

•F

ull

y m

icro

sim

ula

tio

n-b

ased

•F

ull

y o

bje

ct-o

rien

ted

/ag

ent-

bas

ed i

n d

esig

n &

im

ple

men

tati

on

•F

ull

po

pu

lati

on

syn

thes

is

•H

ouse

ho

ld &

fir

m b

ased

•C

om

pre

hen

siv

e:

•la

nd u

se

•ac

tiv

ity/t

rav

el

•urb

an e

conom

ics

•au

to o

wn

ersh

ip

•d

emog

raph

ics

•em

issi

on

s/en

erg

y u

se

•A

fra

mew

ork

for

mo

del

dev

elop

men

t in

add

itio

n t

o a

model

per

se.

ILU

TE

Mic

rosim

ula

tion

“Mic

ro”

imp

lies

a h

igh

ly d

isag

gre

gat

ed m

odel

:

•sp

atia

lly

•so

cio

-eco

no

mic

ally

(rep

rese

nta

tio

n o

f ac

tors

)

•re

pre

sen

tati

on

of

pro

cess

es

“Sim

ula

tion

”im

pli

es:

•nu

mer

ical

•d

yn

amic

(ti

me

dim

ensi

on

ex

pli

cit)

•st

och

asti

c

•en

d s

tate

is

“ev

olv

ed”

rath

er t

han

“so

lved

for”

t =

t0

Syn

thesis

of

Base

S

am

ple

For

t =

t0

Endogenous

Changes

toS

am

ple

during this

∆t

Dis

aggre

gate

Behavi

ora

l Mode

l

Behavi

or/

Sys

tem

Sta

teat (t

+ ∆

t)

Exogenous

Inputs

this

∆t

t =

t +

∆t

ILU

TE

Why M

icro

sim

ula

te? To o

bta

in a

more

det

aile

d

under

stan

din

g o

f sy

stem

resp

onse

s to

poli

cies

.

-0.0

5

-0.0

4

-0.0

3

-0.0

2

-0.0

1

0

0.0

1

Fraction Change in Pauto

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

Fra

ction C

hange in A

uto

Cost

Pa=

0.1

0P

a=

0.5

0P

a=

0.9

0

Au

to C

ost

Ela

sti

cit

yW

ork

er

Ca

t. 5

(D

LIC

, 2

+ c

ars

)

To o

bta

in a

more

det

aile

d

under

stan

din

g o

f th

e dis

trib

uti

on

of

ben

efit

s, c

ost

s, i

mpac

ts w

ithin

the

syst

emsp

atia

lly a

nd so

cio-

econom

ical

ly-0

.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

Trip Elasticity

Work

/School

Oth

er

Trips

Trip P

urp

ose

Route

Tra

nsit

Tota

l T

rips

ILU

TE

Why M

icro

sim

ula

te?

VK

T

Tim

eB

ase

Yea

r

Fo

reca

st

Ho

rizo

n

His

tori

cal

Tre

nd

Tre

nd

Pro

ject

ion

Dyn

amic

, p

ath

-dep

end

ent

resp

on

se t

o p

oli

cy

init

iati

ves

Sta

tic

equ

ilib

riu

m

pro

ject

ion

To e

xplo

re a

lter

nat

ive

futu

res

and “

emer

gen

t beh

avio

ur”

.

ILU

TE

Obje

ct-

Ori

ente

d,

Ag

ent-

Ba

sed M

odels

Per

son 1

Agen

da

Sch

edule

Per

son 1

Agen

da

Sch

edule

House

hold

Dw

elli

ng U

nit

Zone

Work

erJo

bF

irm

Buil

din

g

Agen

da

Veh

icle

Agen

da

Sch

edule

•T

he

model

is

bei

ng d

evel

oped

wit

hin

the

OO

P p

arad

igm

(C

++

)

•O

OP

idea

l fo

r m

icro

sim

ula

tion a

ppli

cati

ons

•M

odel

des

ign f

ocu

ses

on d

efin

itio

n o

f th

e obje

cts

whic

h e

xis

t

& i

nte

ract

wit

hin

the

syst

em

•A

n i

nte

llig

ent

obje

ct i

s an

agent.

Agen

ts:

•per

ceiv

e th

e w

orl

d

around t

hem

•m

ake

auto

nom

ous

dec

isio

ns

•ac

t in

to t

he

worl

d

ILU

TE

Per

son

Lis

t

Per

son

A

ge

Sex

Ed

uc.

Occ

.

Em

p. …

.

ID

C

od

e

Co

de

Sta

tus

….

12

07

36

M

4

1

F

T

….

….

13

54

32

F

5

2

P

T

….

….

96

23

6

F

1

-1

-1

.

….

Ho

use

ho

ld L

ist

Hh

ldN

o. o

f

No

. o

f …

.

ID

Per

son

s C

ars

….

66

33

2

….

….

Jo

b L

ist

Job

O

cc.

Sal

ary

.

ID

Co

de

….

62

3 2

$5

0K

….

….

97

45

1

$6

5K

….

….

Dw

elli

ng

Un

it L

ist

DU

Z

on

e P

rice

.

ID ….

34

52

67

0 $

24

5K

….

….

Sch

oo

l L

ist

Sch

Typ

e

Z

on

e …

.

ID ….

23

Pri

mar

y 2

66

9 …

.

….

Part

ial

Vie

w o

f th

e IL

UT

E S

yste

m S

tate

, T

ime T

ILU

TE

Bas

e Y

ear

Cen

sus

Dat

a,

Oth

er A

gg

reg

ate

Dat

a

Syn

thes

ize

Bas

e Y

ear

Po

pu

lati

on

,

Em

plo

ym

ent,

Dw

elli

ng

s, e

tc.

ILU

TE

Ev

olu

tio

na

ry E

ng

ine

Fo

r T

= T

0+

1,T

0+

NT

do

:

•D

emo

gra

ph

ic U

pd

ate

•D

emo

gra

ph

ics

•F

amil

y/h

ou

seh

old

co

mp

osi

tio

n u

pd

ate

•S

cho

ol

par

tici

pat

ion

up

dat

e

•B

uil

din

g S

tock

Up

dat

e

•R

esid

enti

al H

ou

sin

g

•C

om

mer

cial

Flo

ors

pac

e

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