Illinois Workforce Analysis

Melissa Steel King, Leslie Kan, and Chad AldemanJuly 2016

Illinois’ Educator Workforce: Changes from 2002-2012

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Overview

An earlier version was presented to the Illinois P-20 Council in March 2016. Thanks to Advance Illinois for providing regular feedback, to George Mu and Sarah Kramer for their help in creating the visual content, and to the Joyce Foundation for their generous support of this work. The views and analysis in this report are the responsibility of the authors alone.

Data Sources and AnalysesFindings

• Supply and Demand• Racial Demographics• Level of Education• Experience Levels• Retention

District PipelinesLooking Ahead

Contents

This report summarizes key characteristics of Illinois’ Pre-K through 12 educator workforce between 2002 and 2014.

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Key Findings

• Hiring rates in Illinois fluctuate over time, but remain within a relatively small band.

• Overall, the supply of new teachers has consistently been greater than demand, but this varies by subject area.

• Illinois’ educator workforce does not align with the racial demographics of its students, and those disparities are not improving.

• High-poverty districts are less likely to hire experienced teachers.

• Retention rates vary across districts and demographic groups.

Data Sources and Analyses

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We used publicly available data from the state of Illinois.

Illinois Teacher Service Record (TSR) database*• Annual summary of educators employed by Illinois public school districts • Data available for 2002-2012**• 296,251 unique educators in dataset • Teachers make up 85 percent of the sample (also includes administrative

and other support personnel)

Illinois Educator Supply and Demand Reports***• Summary of certifications by Illinois State Board of Education (ISBE); issued

annually 2001-2008 and every three years thereafter• Information compiled from all available reports from 2002 to 2014

* Available at http://www.isbe.net/research/htmls/educator-employment.htm.** In the TSR and throughout this report, “2002” refers to the 2001-02 school year, “2003” refers to the 2002-03 school year, and so on.*** Available at http://www.isbe.net/research/htmls/supply_and_demand.htm.

http://www.isbe.net/research/htmls/educator-employment.htm

http://www.isbe.net/research/htmls/educator-employment.htm

http://www.isbe.net/research/htmls/supply_and_demand.htm

http://www.isbe.net/research/htmls/supply_and_demand.htm

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We summarized statewide trends on overall supply and demand, and educators’ race, years of experience, level of education, and retention.

(See Appendix for additional detail.)For some analyses, we compared different categories of districts:

We analyzed the data in a number of ways.

Poverty Quintiles: All Illinois districts were divided into quintiles based on ISBE’s poverty data from 2012.

• Poverty Quintile 1: 0-20 percent low income (lowest poverty)• Poverty Quintile 2: 20-33 percent low income• Poverty Quintile 3: 33-44 percent low income• Poverty Quintile 4: 44-58 percent low income• Poverty Quintile 5: 58-100 percent low income (highest poverty)

Sample Large Unit Districts: We identified a sample of five of the state’s largest districts for comparison.

• Plainfield (Poverty Quintile 1)• Indian Prairie (Poverty Quintile 1)• Elgin (Poverty Quintile 4)• Rockford (Poverty Quintile 5)• Chicago (Poverty Quintile 5)

Findings: Supply and Demand

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Hiring rates fluctuate but have stayed within a relatively small band. New hires made up 3 to 6 percent of the total workforce each year.

*Evidence of discrepancies in data on new Chicago hires in 2007

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

201220112010200920082007*20062005200420032002

Percentage of New Hires in Total Workforce Over Time (%)

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* Data compiled from ISBE Educator Supply and Demand reports. Data for the 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2013 fiscal years were not available.

Overall, supply exceeds demand.

0

2

4

6

8

10

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Actual Ratio

ISBE’s “Ideal”Ratio

Ratio of Certificates Issued to First-Timers Hired, Over Time

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Although overall supply is high, this varies significantly by subject. Special education, bilingual education, math, music, and P.E. supplies are tightest.

* Data compiled from ISBE Educator Supply and Demand reports. Data for the 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2013 fiscal years were not available. Early Childhood first appears as a separate certificate category beginning in 2006 and onward.

20

50

0

30

10

40

60

70

80

Math

0.34.7

Health

Foreign Lang.- O

ther

0.5 1.45.5

Foreign Lang.- Spanish

1.9

Music

13.0

4.5

PhysicalEducation

6.83.0

9.75.4

EarlyC

hildhood

0.91.8

English Lang.A

rts

6.9

34.9

Elementary

79.5

Bilingual

1.83.9

20.4

1.24.2 3.9

39.6

3.2

SpecialEducation

14.9

Science

Social Science

12.0

2.5

Art

Comparison of Certificates Issued to First-Timers Hired, 2002-2014*(K)2.2 2.5 2.4 2.3 1.5

Certs:Hired Ratio, tightest supply

3.3 12.4 5.83.9 5.0 3.8 4.0 8.63.6

Certs:Hired RatioFirst Certificates IssuedFirst-Timers Hired

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Each year from 2002 to 2014, there was consistent overproduction in some subject areas and consistent underproduction in others.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Ratio of Supply of Teaching Certificates Issued to Demand for Selected Subjects

“Ideal” Ratio

Total InstructionalSocialScienceSpecial EducationBilingual

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Illinois districts hired a higher percentage of teachers from in-state baccalaureate colleges in 2012 than in 2002.

0

20

80

60

4071

2002 2012

75

Percentage of Total New Hires From In-State Institutions (%)

Findings: Racial Demographics

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Illinois has not increased the diversity of its workforce. From 2002 to 2012, a large majority of Illinois school staff members were white.

7104

8485

0

20

40

60

80

100

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

White

HispanicBlack

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All Illinois Educators by Race, Over Time (%)

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The vast majority of the state’s black and Hispanic school staff members work in Illinois’ highest-poverty districts.

20

40

60

80

100

02002

86

63 23

2012

76

9

446

45th Quintile– Highest Poverty

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1st Quintile – Lowest Poverty

Distribution of Black and Hispanic Staff by District Poverty Quintile (%)

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The demographics of new hires differ across districts. For example, Chicago new hires are more diverse than in neighboring New Trier.

01412

19

60

00211

95

0

20

40

60

80

100

OtherAmerican Indian or Alaskan Native

BlackWhite Hispanic Asian

New Trier Township Districts

ChicagoSD 299

Racial Breakdown of New Hires, 2002-12 (%)

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.

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There are significant gaps between the percentages of students and staff of color. The largest gaps are in low-income districts.

Gap Between Student and Staff Demographic Makeup (Percentage Points)by Race and Poverty Quintile (2012)

(6) (5)(9)(9) (10) (13)

(20)

(30)

(19)

(4)(11)

(18)

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5th QuintileHighest Poverty

4th3rd2nd1st QuintileLowest Poverty

State Total

Hispanic staff/student gapBlack staff/student gap

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The disparities vary across districts and race.

(15)

(24)

(8) (6) (4)(11)

(29)(22)

(19)

(7)

(32)

(19)

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Elgin SD U-46

Indian Prairie

CUSD 204

Plainfield SD 202

Rockford SD 205

Chicago SD 299

State Total

Black staff/student gapHispanic staff/student gap

Gap Between Student and Staff Demographic Makeup (Percentage Points)by Race and District (2012)

Findings: Level of Education

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More Illinois educators have master’s degrees. That shift was driven by changes in both the existing workforce and in new hires.

58 52 50 46 47 50

72 68 62 60 62 65

0

20

40

60

80

State Total5th QuintileHighest Poverty


20022012

Percentage of Staff With a Master’s Degree, by Poverty Quintile (%)

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The percentage of new hires with master’s degrees increased across the state, especially in Chicago.

Percentage of New Hires With a Master’s Degree, Across Large Unit Districts (%)

1522

27 25 2219 2025 28

41

3024

0

10

20

30

40

50+16%

State TotalChicago SD 299

Indian Prairie

CUSD 204

Plainfield SD 202

Rockford SD 205

Elgin SD U-46

20122002

Findings: Experience Levels

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The Illinois educator workforce experience profile has changed over time.

State Experience of All Illinois Educators

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Changes in the experience profile do not show up in averages. The median educator had similar levels of experience in 2002 and 2012.

11 12 13 13 12 1211 12 12 1210 11

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14



20122002

Illinois Median Years of State Experience for All Staff (Years)

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Many districts hired educators with prior state experience. That mobility primarily benefits lower-poverty districts.

55 52 5345

29

4544 46 46 41

2839

0

10

20

30

40

50

60



20022012

Percentage of New Hires With More Than Two Years of State Experience (%)

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Chicago, in particular, did not hire staff with prior experience. They were likely exporting rather than importing educators.

42

55

31

52

8

4554

2938 37

8

39

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


Indian Prairie

CUSD 204

Rockford SD 205

Plainfield SD 202

Elgin SD U-46

20122002

Percentage of New Hires With More Than Two Years of Experience (%)

Findings: Retention

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Approximately two-thirds of staff in each cohort of new hires were still working in Illinois schools five years after first hired.

Retention Rates of School Staff Entering Workforce from 2002 to 2012

School Staff

Entering Workforce in:

N

Still Teaching in Illinois

After 1 yr

After 2 yrs

After 3 yrs

After 4 yrs

After 5 yrs

After 6 yrs

After 7 yrs

After 8 yrs

After 9 yrs

After 10 yrs

2001-02 9.7K 86% 76% 71% 67% 63% 61% 59% 58% 54% 52%

2002-03 9.2K 85% 79% 73% 68% 66% 63% 62% 56% 55%

2003-04 8.3K 88% 81% 73% 69% 67% 65% 59% 56%

2004-05 9.4K 89% 79% 74% 72% 69% 63% 60%

2005-06 10.2K 86% 80% 75% 73% 66% 63%

2006-07* 7.8K 89% 82% 78% 70% 66%

2007-08 10.0K 82% 77% 67% 62%

2008-09 8.0K 84% 71% 64%

2009-10 6.4K 79% 67%

2010-11 5.5K 81%

Note: Evidence of discrepancies in data on new Chicago hires in 2007

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Retention rates differ across race. White and black educators had comparatively higher long-term retention rates, state-wide.

72 69 69 68 71

54 4940

33

52

0

20

40

60

80

AsianHispanicBlackWhite State Average

3-Year Retention10-Year Retention

Three- and 10-Year In-State Retention Rate by Race (%) 2002 cohort

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Retention rates were lowest in the highest-poverty districts.

76 74 71 70 68 7158 57 55 54

46 52

0

20

40

60

80




Three- and 10-Year In-State Retention Rate by Poverty Quintile (%) 2002 cohort

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Retention rates also vary by district. Chicago in particular had a very low retention rate, even compared to other large districts.

6884

70 73 66 7152

6253 54

3952

0

20

40

60

80

100


Indian Prairie

CUSD 204

Rockford SD 205

Plainfield SD 202

Elgin SD U-46


Three- and 10-Year In-State Retention Rate by Large Unit District (%) 2002 cohort

District Pipelines

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Overview of Selected District Pipelines

The TSR dataset did not include information on where school staff received their certifications, but it did identify each individual educator’s baccalaureate institution.

Although not a complete list for any district, this section shows the top five baccalaureate-granting institutions reported by new hires in the following districts:• Chicago Public Schools

• Elgin District U-46

• Plainfield District 202

• Indian Prairie District 204

• Rockford District 205

• New Trier Township Districts

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Chicago Public Schools: Illinois universities and other midwestern states were among the top five producers of new hires, 2002-12.

Top 5 Baccalaureate Institutions of Chicago New Hires, 2002-12

Institution Number of New Hires

Percentage Out of Total New Hires (%)

University of Illinois, Chicago 1,175 7

Northeastern Illinois University 1,111 6

Unknown Illinois institution 958 5

Indiana 880 5

Michigan 814 5

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Elgin District U-46: Eleven percent of new hires from 2002 to 2012 came from international universities.

Top 5 Baccalaureate Institutions of Elgin New Hires, 2002-12



Northern Illinois University 374 15

Outside U.S.A. 267 11

Illinois State University 237 10

University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign 109 4

Wisconsin 84 3

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Plainfield District 202: The top five producers of new hires from 2002 to 2012 were in-state universities.

Top 5 Baccalaureate Institutions of Plainfield New Hires, 2002-12





Eastern Illinois University 172 7


North Central College 107 4

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Indian Prairie District 204: Illinois universities were the top five producers of new hires, 2002-12.

Top 5 Baccalaureate Institutions of Indian Prairie New Hires, 2002-12






North Central College 99 5

Eastern Illinois University 90 4

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Rockford District 205: Twelve percent of new hires earned their baccalaureate degrees either in Wisconsin or outside the country.

Top 5 Baccalaureate Institutions of Rockford New Hires, 2002-12




Rockford College 239 14


Wisconsin 109 7

Outside U.S.A. 80 5

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New Trier Township Districts: A substantial proportion of 2002-12 new hires in New Trier earned their degrees in nearby states.

Top 5 Baccalaureate Institutions of New Trier New Hires, 2002-12




Indiana 145 8

Ohio 131 7

Wisconsin 119 7

Michigan 106 6

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Across the state, certain institutions produce disproportionate shares of black teachers.

Top 5 Producers of Newly Hired Black Teachers — Statewide, 2012

InstitutionTotal Market Share of All New Illinois Teachers

Total Market Share of New Black Teachers

Chicago State University 1% 10%

Unknown Illinois institution 4% 9%

University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign 7% 5%

Northern Illinois University 5% 4%

Governor’s State University 1% 4%

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The same is true for Hispanic teachers. Certain institutions produce disproportionate shares of Hispanic teachers.

Top 5 Producers of Newly Hired Hispanic Teachers — Statewide, 2012

InstitutionTotal Market Share of All New Illinois Teachers

Total Market Share of New Hispanic Teachers

Northeastern Illinois University 2% 11%

Outside U.S.A. 1% 9%

Unknown Illinois institution 4% 9%

DePaul University 2% 6%

Northern Illinois University 5% 6%

Looking Ahead

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Policy Recommendations

• Be cognizant of cyclical fluctuations in supply and demand.• Collect and track data that can provide insight into how to attract and

retain teachers in specific shortage areas. – Newly certified staff: What regions/districts do newly certified staff

gravitate toward? How many leave the state? How many do not teach at all?

– Experienced teachers: Track movement across districts. Do experienced teachers move to lower-poverty districts? To urban vs. rural districts? Out of the profession?

• Use data to target strategies to specific subject areas and regions where shortages exist.

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Data Recommendations

• Since the time period studied, ISBE has created a new database, called the Employment Information System (EIS). The EIS includes changes to data collection and management designed to address many problems with data consistency and ease of analysis found in the TSR. Ongoing monitoring and efforts to solicit feedback can help ensure continued improvement to the quality of the data. Additional recommendations include:– Investigate which aspects of the data would be most useful to

districts (such as information about mobility) and to institutions of higher education (such as information about teacher placement) and ensure that district and higher education staff can easily access their own data

– Collect information about teachers’ preparation programs and certification areas

– Release more frequent supply and demand reports

Appendix

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Methodology

• In order to conduct longitudinal analyses, all of the yearly TSR datasets were merged into one file.

• Because the original datasets do not include unique IDs for educators, we assigned individuals their own unique IDs. Then we matched cases across years based on first and last name, middle initial, gender, race, and college attended.

• Approximately 97% of the cases in the sample were successfully matched using this method.

Illinois Workforce Analysis

Education

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