IHS Global Solar Market Demand Outlook 2016 - 2020 Global Solar Market Demand Outlook 2016 - 2020 ©...

SolarPower Europe Webinar

IHS Global Solar Market Demand Outlook 2016 - 2020

5 April 2016 at 15:00

SolarPower Europe Webinar

SPEAKER

Josefin Berg Senior Analyst IHS SOLAR RESEARCH GROUP

MODERATOR

Michael Schmela Executive Advisor SOLARPOWER EUROPE

IHS Global Solar Market

Demand Outlook 2016 - 2020

© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

GLOBAL SOLAR MARKET

DEMAND OUTLOOK 2016 - 2020

SolarPower Europe webinar

APRIL 2016

Josefin Berg – Senior Analyst Solar Research

[email protected]


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SolarPower Europe Webinar 5 April 2016


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2

1. PV DEMAND: FORECASTS AND MARKETS 7

Global PV Demand 7

Major PV markets country profiles 17

Three main markets

China 18

Japan 31

United States 42

Other major markets 54

Australia 55

Canada 62

Chile 73

France 79

Germany 89

India 103

Netherlands 117

South Africa 126

Thailand 135

United Kingdom 141

Emerging PV markets 153

2. PV MODULE SUPPLY CHAIN 162

3. PV INVERTERS 171

4. DOWNSTREAM PV 176

5. ENERGY STORAGE IN PV 186

ABBREVIATIONS, METHODOLOGY AND

NOTES 199

Contents



2015 – A RECORD YEAR

Markets

Modules

Inverters

Downstream

Storage

GLOBAL PV DEMAND OUTLOOK

Markets

Modules

Inverters

Storage


2015 – 31% year on year

growth



The three largest markets installed two thirds of all PV

capacity

China32%

Japan19%

USA14%

UK6%

India5%

Germany2%

Chile2%

South Korea

2%

Australia2%

France2%

Other markets

14%

Installed PV capacity 2015 by country

Source: IHS © 2016 IHS

• China’s PV installations grew by 48% year-on-year.

• Five year plan upholds continued PV demand through 2020

• Japan peaked in 2015 and will gradually decline as support for large-scale PV declines.

• USA is set to overtake Japan in 2016, by nearly doubling installed capacity.

• ITC extension boosts demand through 2024.

• India projected to become the third largest PV market in 2018.



In 2015, module

prices stabilised

• PV module prices declined by 9% in

2015 – the first single-digit decrease

since IHS began tracking the market.

• Polysilicon prices declined by over 20%

• Anti-dumping subsidies imposed on

imports into China.

• Module supplier margins improved.

• Improved financial status of suppliers

has enabled a new wave of capacity

expansions.

• South East Asia and India



China’s Trina Solar maintained its position as the largest

PV module supplier in 2015, over 5 GW for the first time.


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015

Top 10 solar module suppliers shipment in Q3 2015

(Crystalline and Thin Film)

© 2016 IHS

Sh

ipm

en

t (M

W)

Source: IHS


Inverter prices

declined by 20%

• Intense price pressure continued in

2015 with average price declines across

the market of 20%.

• Global revenues increased, largely due

to booming markets in Asia and

Americas in particular

• Leading Chinese and Japanese

suppliers continued to expand into

international markets and benefit from

growth in their domestic markets. 2015

will likely be the first year on record that

SMA is displaced as number-one PV

inverter supplier by an Asian competitor.



Chinese suppliers dominate the top-ten global rankings

Q3’15 Global PV Inverter Supplier Market RankingRanked in terms of shipments (MWac)

Q3’15

Rank

Company Name HQ Location Q3’15 Market

Share

Q-o-Q Change

1 Sungrow China 11.6% 1.8%

2 Huawei China 11.2% 4.1%

3 SMA Europe 10.7% -1.0%

4 TBEA Sunoasis China 7.6% 3.1%

5 Wuxi Sineng China 6.8% 3.0%




Downstream: PV project pipelines by region

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Europe Asia Pacific North America Latin America Africa-MiddleEast

Being installed Permitted Planned

PV project pipelines by region

Notes: Data from IHS Solar Deal Tracker January 2016


MW



EPC - TBEA overtakes First Solar in 2015

• In 2015, the combined installations of the ten largest companies is

estimated at 9.2 GW.

World PV EPC and integrator rankings

2014 2015 - preliminary Manufacturer EPC Developer Owner

1 First Solar 1 TBEA Sun Oasis

2 SunEdison 2 First Solar

3 TBEA Sun Oasis 3 GCL Solar

4 HT-SAAE 4 Zhongli Talesun Solar

5 GD Solar 5 EDRI 11th Institute




Storage

installations

tripled in 2015

• Annual storage installations reached

476 MWPV – an three-fold increase over

2014.

• The largest growth came from utility-

scale systems which leapt from 18

MWPV in 2014 to 190 MWPV.

• Germany, Japan and North America

continued to dominate the industry,

accounting for over two-thirds of annual

installations.

• Most notably, the high profile

announcement of Tesla’s home battery –

Powerwall, led to heightened awareness

of the benefits of home energy storage

around the world, helping to stimulate

demand.



Global PV outlook



IHS Technology PV forecast methodology

• IHS Technology forecasts PV installations in 100 countries bottom-up

based on current and projected market conditions.

• Country by country analysis of policy and market conditions – primary

research

• Status and evolution of planned projects (in-house global project database

with 45,000 PV projects)

• Near-term demand validated with shipment data (inverters and modules)

• From 2017 to 2020, IHS Technology analyzes ‘top-down’ likely

penetration for solar per region to account for future demand from

currently unidentified markets.

• Power generation and consumption.

• Demand generated from module price decline in oversupply periods.

SolarPower Europe Webinar 5 April 2016Custom presentation for REC Silicon


Base case assumptions

Current top markets keep up demand.

• China policy continues supporting PV

• Strong US demand in 2019-2020 under the extended ITC conditions

• Accelerated India demand via national and state tenders.

• Continued Japan demand despite slow-down

New markets develop supportive policy schemes.

• Volatile demand as regulators calibrate policy

Module price dynamics spur demand.

• In periods of slow demand, the downward pressure on module prices

restores global demand



IHS forecasts global PV demand of 94 GW by 2020


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

China USA Japan

India Rest of Asia Africa & the Middle East

Rest of Americas Europe

IHS base case annual PV installed capacity through 2020


MW


In 2020, 70% of the demand will come from top-10, down

from 84% in 2015


China23%

USA18%

India14%

Japan6%Germany

2%

France2%

Brazil2%

Mexico1%

South Korea1%

Australia1%

Other Markets30%

Annual PV installed capacity 2020



APAC will be key driver of solar growth


0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Asia Pacific Americas Europe Africa / Middle East

IHS base case total installed PV capacity 2016 - 2020


MW


Module supply

outlook

Key forecast trends

• PV module revenues are predicted to

decline in 2017 due a decline in demand

from the United States. However, annual

growth will recommence from 2018

onwards.

• During 2017 to 2020, PV module

supplier gross margins will stabilize with

continued cost reductions throughout

the supply chain offsetting moderate

price declines.



0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

$/W

dc

ASP ($/W)

Blended module ASP

© 2016 IHSSource: IHS

Module price declines support demand growth



Inverters outlook Key forecast trends

• Competitive pricing for PV inverters will

continue, with pricing to decrease by

10% on average each year through to

2020.

• Generally flat revenues throughout the

forecast period.

• New suppliers are predicted to continue

to enter the United States, contributing

to intense competition and continued

price declines.

• Microinverter revenues are forecast to

grow the fastest of all PV inverter power

classes over the next five years.



Storage outlook Key forecast trends

• The market is predicted to grow by over

50% a year on average through to 2020,

with a wide range of regions emerging

and contributing to growth.

• Self-consumption will remain the major

driver for the residential market.

• New business models will allow systems

to collectively provide services to the

grid, such as grid-balancing and

frequency regulation.

• Cost reductions, versatility and high

energy density mean that Li-ion will

remain the dominant technology.



Marketbuzz – the annual snapshot of the PV industry.

IHS intelligence services – regular in-depth insight.


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SolarPower Europe Webinar:

IHS Global Solar Market Demand Outlook 2016 - 2020

SolarPower Europe (European Photovoltaic Industry Association)Rue d’Arlon 69-71, 1040 Brussels, BelgiumT +32 2 709 55 20 / F +32 2 725 32 [email protected] /www.solarpowereurope.org

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