IFPA - Fletcher Conference“Strengthening and Building on NATO “

E.C. WhitesideHead WMD Centre

NATO HQ

SIGNIFICANT TERRORIST INCIDENTS(1961-2003)

•1961-1983 (20 Years) : 23•1983-1993 (10 Years) : 41•1993-2003 (10 Years) : 183

Resource: Office Of The Historian Bureau of Public Affairs U.S. Department of State

SUICIDE BOMBINGS HAVE OCCURRED IN MORE THAN 20 COUNTRIES

• AFGHANISTAN• ARGENTINA• CHINA• COLOMBIA• CROATIA• INDIA• INDONESIA• IRAQ• ISRAEL• KENYA• KUWAIT• LEBANON• MOROCCO

• PAKISTAN• PANAMA• PHILIPPINES• RUSSIA• SAUDI ARABIA• SPAIN• SRI LANKA• TANZANIA• TUNISIA• TURKEY• UNITED STATES • UZBEKISTAN• YEMEN

INCIDENCES OF SUICIDE ATTACK WORLDWIDE

COUNTRY

2000 2001 2002 2003

AFGHANISTAN 1 2 3 15

CHECHNYA/RUSSIA 8 1 1 10 20 382

CHINA 2 2 5

INDONESIA 1 1 2 215

IRAQ 33 33 244

KASHMIR 17 29 18 11 75 409

KENYA 1 1 18

MOROCCO 5 5 44

PAKISTAN 2 2 4 84

PALESTINE/ISRAEL 3 40 64 22 129 555

PHILIPPINES 1 1 2 24

SAUDI ARABIA 1 5 6 57

SRI LANKA 14 4 1 19 205

TUNISIA 1 1 16

TURKEY 1 5 6 64

USA 4 4 3002

YEMEN 1 1 19

TOTAL 43 81 91 98 313 5358

SUICIDE ATTACKS PER YEARATTACKS DEATHS

A suicide bombing is a bomb attack on people or property, committed by a person who knows the explosion will cause his or her own death

The Most Destructive Suicide Bombing in History

IMAGINE THE TERRIBLE OUTCOME, IF IT WERE A WMD ATTACK!

NATO’s RESPONSE TO THIS CHALLENGE

Operation Active Endeavour

Istanbul Summit in 2004: NATO agrees to assist Iraq with the training of its security forces

Visit to NATO on 14 September 2004, Interim Iraqi president Sheikh Ghazi Al-Yawar welcomed the Alliance’s assistance to Iraq and called for further assistance urgently

ENHANCEMENT OF NATO ASSISTANCE TO IRAQ

•The NATO effort will focus on training, and assisting with equipping, and technical assistance

•A distinct mission, but it will work closely with the Multinational Force

•The aims of this mission are training, equipping and technical assistance – not combat

NATO’s training task in NATO’s training task in IRAQIRAQ

• NATO team continues toNATO team continues to::• Train and mentor Iraqi personnelTrain and mentor Iraqi personnel• Meet all levels of Iraqi MoD and Coalition Meet all levels of Iraqi MoD and Coalition

ForcesForces• Further NATO decisions expected soonFurther NATO decisions expected soon

INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ASSISTANCE FORCE

(ISAF)

NATO August 11 2003

Multinational Flags at ISAF HQ in Kabul.

More than 8000 Soldiers, sailors and airmen

From 36 Nations

UNSCR 1510, Oct.13.2003 ; ISAF Support Beyond Kabul

INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ASSISTANCE FORCE

(ISAF)

PROVINCIAL RECONSTRUCTION TEAMS(PRT)

• BAGHLAN• FEYZABAD• KONDUZ• MAZAR E-SHARIF• MEYMANA• BAMIYAN

NATO

New Zealand

U.S.• ASADABAD• HERAT• GARDEZ• FARAH• KANDAHAR• QALAT• KHOST• JALALABAD• PARWAN (U.S.+S.Korea)• GHAZNI

PROVINCIAL RECONSTRUCTION TEAMS ( PRT )

HERT

NIMRUZ

HELMAND

ORUZGAN

GHOWR

BADGHIS

FARYAB

SAR-E POL SAMANGAN

JOWZJAN

BALKH

TAKHAR

BAGHLAN

BADAKHSHAN

KONAR

LAGHMAN

PARVAN

KEPIGA

Garmabak

KeleftJeyretan

Sar-e PolSamangan

Pol-e Khomri

Taloqan

Eshkashem

Charikar

Delaram

Shindand

Zaranj

BAGHLAN

Spin Boldak

Baghran

Balkh

Bagram

JacobabadShamsi

Karshi Khanabad

Baraki

PAKTIKAZABOL

VARDAKLOWGAR

Shir Khan

Shkin

Orgun-eDeh Rawod

Geresk

Kabul

BamyanParwan

Chaghcharan

Qal eh-ye Now

Geresk

FARAHFARAH

LASHKAR GAHLASHKAR GAH

QALAT QALAT

GHAZNIGHAZNI

HERATHERAT

GARDEZGARDEZ

KANDAHARKANDAHAR

JALALABAD JALALABAD

ASADABADASADABAD

KHOWSTKHOWST

Current PRTs

Future PRTs

BAMIANBAMIAN

TARIN KOWTTARIN KOWT

SHARANASHARANA

PARWANPARWAN

MAZAR-ESHARIFMAZAR-ESHARIF

MAiMANAMAiMANA POLE KHUMRIPOLE KHUMRI

FEYZABADFEYZABAD

Coalition PRTs

NATO PRTs

KUNDUZKUNDUZ

Ballot boxes arrive in Kabul

• SP: 1x Battalion to Mazar-e SharifSP: 1x Battalion to Mazar-e Sharif

• IT : 1 x Battalion to KabulIT : 1 x Battalion to Kabul

• US: 1 x Company to Kabul (QRF)US: 1 x Company to Kabul (QRF)

• NL: deployed 6 x F-16sNL: deployed 6 x F-16s

• UK: Offered Harrier A/CUK: Offered Harrier A/C

• AWACS also on standbyAWACS also on standby

AFGHANISTAN

SUPPORT TO PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONSUPPORT TO PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

9000 Personnel

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

09 October 2004

NATO’s RESPONSE TO PROLIFERATION

CBRN DEFENCE INITIATIVES

Investigate and collect samples of possible NBC contamination

Conduct highly reliable scientific

analysis of samples

Quickly and easily transportable into theater

Deployable NBC Analytical Laboratory

NBC Joint Assessment Team

Assess the effects of an NBC event

Advise NATO Commanders on mitigating effects of an

NBC event

Enable NATO Commanders to “reach back” to national experts for technical advice

NATO Chem-Bio Defence Stockpile

Rapidly move needed defense materiel into theater

Identify and share national stockpiles

Improve medical treatment protocols

Disease Surveillance System

Alert NATO commanders of a biological outbreak

Fuse data with other information sources

Collect info on unusual disease outbreaks

Virtual Center of Excellence for NBC Weapons Defence

Enhance Senior-level NBC education

Improve operational understanding of NBC defense

Expand and strengthen NBC defense training

CBRN DEFENCE BATTALION

THE BALLISTIC MISSILE CHALLENGE

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0 1,300 0 3,500 5,500-10,000

0

0

Alt

itu

de (

km)

Medium RangeBallistic Missile

(MRBM)

Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile(IRBM)

ICBM

Range (km)0 600

Short RangeBallistic Missile

(SRBM)

Boost

Midcourse

Terminal

* Re-entry Velocity

1-2 km/sec* 3-4 km/sec* 4-5 km/sec*

7-8 km/sec*

Terrorism + WMD together ??

• Based on a combination of trends in both capabilities and motivations, as well as empirical evidence of actual interest, the risks are real

• Low probability - high consequence• NATO has a role in supporting the global

dimension of “homeland security”