IEP National Seminar on Water Storage IEP National Seminar on Water Storage by Large Damsby Large DamsApril 30,2005April 30,2005

Conflict Resolution Techniques for Conflict Resolution Techniques for Kalabagh DamKalabagh Dam

Dr.Javed Yunas UppalDr.Javed Yunas UppalAsim Javed UppalAsim Javed Uppal

Pakistan Foundation For Advancement of Pakistan Foundation For Advancement of Engineering & TechnologyEngineering & Technology

www.pfaet.comwww.pfaet.com www.pfaet.orgwww.pfaet.org www.pfaet.com.pkwww.pfaet.com.pk

World’s Largest Sweet Water World’s Largest Sweet Water ReservoirReservoir

Kalabagh Dam IssueKalabagh Dam Issue

Statement of the ProblemStatement of the Problem

Kalabagh Dam, though technically sound and potentially beneficial project, and has attracted financing, yet regionally,politically and publicly,the project has failed to establish a total win- win situation.

People Against People People Against People

Objective of InterventionObjective of Intervention An intervention addressing to the needs of An intervention addressing to the needs of

all stake holders; public at large, influentials, all stake holders; public at large, influentials, experts and international parties, is to be experts and international parties, is to be planned implemented and monitored on planned implemented and monitored on tasks such as advocacy, opinion and attitude tasks such as advocacy, opinion and attitude building, and most of all the techniques of building, and most of all the techniques of conflict resolution. conflict resolution.

An effective action plan, its execution and An effective action plan, its execution and monitoring cannot be performed without monitoring cannot be performed without identifying the correct roles that the major identifying the correct roles that the major causal parameters play in this matter, and causal parameters play in this matter, and without understanding their dynamics.without understanding their dynamics.

DEFINITION OF CONFLICTDEFINITION OF CONFLICT

“ “Conflicts are defined as interactions of Conflicts are defined as interactions of interdependent people who see their goals as interdependent people who see their goals as incompatible.incompatible.””

Conflicts around dams come from a number of Conflicts around dams come from a number of sources; especially from the real and perceived sources; especially from the real and perceived distribution of costs and benefits, disparities in distribution of costs and benefits, disparities in social and economic power, the roles of different social and economic power, the roles of different institutions, and specifics of project location and institutions, and specifics of project location and design.design.

Involvement and Conflict DynamicsInvolvement and Conflict Dynamics

Involvement programs are needed to assist all Involvement programs are needed to assist all stakeholders in a conflict that has traditionally stakeholders in a conflict that has traditionally had little dialogue previously. With limited had little dialogue previously. With limited dialogue, such groups may either refrain from dialogue, such groups may either refrain from participation, or conversely, escalate rapidly the participation, or conversely, escalate rapidly the tactics they use to be heard. tactics they use to be heard.

Both situations are detrimental to meaningful Both situations are detrimental to meaningful involvement and to peaceful resolution of involvement and to peaceful resolution of conflict. conflict.

A conflict resolution systemA conflict resolution system includesincludes::

psychological and cultural expectations psychological and cultural expectations

rules and regulations rules and regulations

processes, for administrative processes, for administrative

governance structures. governance structures.

A conflict resolution system has a series of A conflict resolution system has a series of linked steps to respond to current linked steps to respond to current grievances, needs and conditions as well grievances, needs and conditions as well as learning from participants to create new as learning from participants to create new approaches and values. approaches and values.

From a statistical data, it can be found as From a statistical data, it can be found as to what quantitative and associative to what quantitative and associative relationships exist between the major relationships exist between the major causal parameters and the resulting causal parameters and the resulting resolution of the conflict.resolution of the conflict.

Typical CasesTypical Cases The following are some parallel scenarios The following are some parallel scenarios

elsewhere in the world elsewhere in the world

Scenario-1 Scenario-1 Ref:Ref: Edelman, et al. 1990Lesotho Highlands Water Project

Partnering A National Dialogue was established for the Treaty Review Process which involve a collaborative team approach to construction and management of large facilities. Instead of the normal adversarial contractual relationship, the cooperative management team works together to design, choose common objectives, and implement a co-operative partnership for evaluating progress and solving problems Lesotho Highlands Development Authority in Conjunction with local authorities set up a Conflict Resolution Mechanism at the community level to handle disputes. The Authority reports that chiefs were empowered to deal with administrative and dispute issues at the village level on a day-to-day basis. At the engineering/dam construction level, Dispute Review Boards have been utilized.

Possibility of Our Farm LandsPossibility of Our Farm Lands

Scenario 2: Yarmuk River Project Ref: Bingham. 1997

Mediation is the intervention into a negotiation by an acceptable impartial third party that has no authority to make or enforce a decision to assist parties in reaching their own mutually acceptable reconciliation, settlement of issues, or agreement. Mediators have been used for a number of international cross-boundary water disputes (e.g. for the Yarmuk River) and in North America for many types of facility siting, but relatively rarely in other parts of the world

UNDERLYING STATE OF AFFAIRSUNDERLYING STATE OF AFFAIRS

The stakeholders in the Kalabagh issue are:The stakeholders in the Kalabagh issue are:

TThe people of the provinces he people of the provinces the politiciansthe politicians the experts and the authorities the experts and the authorities leaving aside the international parties leaving aside the international parties

The levels of the sensitivity to the issue and The levels of the sensitivity to the issue and the mindsets of these groups can be the mindsets of these groups can be pictured from thepictured from the following following description description::

PeoplePeople::• Jobs, work andJobs, work and rising prices are the main rising prices are the main

worries worries • Easily prone to anyEasily prone to any kind of propagandakind of propaganda

• Any thing touchingAny thing touching ethnicity, casteethnicity, caste religion religion oror tribetribe must be repelledmust be repelled

• Least knowledgeLeast knowledge of facts about of facts about Kalabagh Kalabagh DamDam and its effectsand its effects

• Least botherationLeast botheration of technicalitiesof technicalities involved involved

in the project in the project

PoliticiansPoliticians::

Must gain power and importance and must raise Must gain power and importance and must raise

issues touching peoples’ nerves issues touching peoples’ nerves

Must be seen doing and serving good to own Must be seen doing and serving good to own people no matter what it may be people no matter what it may be

Least knowledge of administrative procedures Least knowledge of administrative procedures and constraints or government priorities and constraints or government priorities

Least knowledgeLeast knowledge of facts about Kalabagh of facts about Kalabagh DamDam and its effectsand its effects

Least botheration ofLeast botheration of technicalitiestechnicalities involved involved in the projectin the project

ExpertsExperts

Living in their own narrow fieldsLiving in their own narrow fields having having pride in own selves. World outside is non-pride in own selves. World outside is non-entity entity

Promotions, pay scales, and pleasure of Promotions, pay scales, and pleasure of the boss is paramountthe boss is paramount

Lack of team spirit or working with others, Lack of team spirit or working with others, or respecting others differing view pointsor respecting others differing view points

Knowledge of only the Dam and little Knowledge of only the Dam and little knowledge of its impact in entiretyknowledge of its impact in entirety

Most technical knowledge is restricted to Most technical knowledge is restricted to its own compartmentits own compartment

AuthoritiesAuthorities

Born to rule because of special talent andBorn to rule because of special talent and

connections. Must exercise authorityconnections. Must exercise authority without sharing without sharing

Promotions, pay scales, and pleasure of Promotions, pay scales, and pleasure of the boss is paramount. Extra curricular the boss is paramount. Extra curricular income is a right too income is a right too

Public is a non-entity. Politicians are Public is a non-entity. Politicians are goofs. Only authorities know what is best goofs. Only authorities know what is best for the people for the people

Knowledge of the Dam just for discussion Knowledge of the Dam just for discussion of the elite of the elite

Technicalities are matters of lower Technicalities are matters of lower intellect. Great minds are above them intellect. Great minds are above them

What are the various ways What are the various ways for conflict for conflict resolutionresolution

NegotiationNegotiation

Agenda SettingAgenda Setting

Processes for Handling ConflictsProcesses for Handling Conflicts

Collaborative Problem Solving Collaborative Problem Solving Fact-finding Fact-finding MediationMediation Partnering Partnering Arbitration Arbitration Incentives for Adhering Parties to an Incentives for Adhering Parties to an

AgreementAgreement

A system thinking approach can be helpfulA system thinking approach can be helpful in this regard. in this regard.

Dynamics of the system can be postulated Dynamics of the system can be postulated byby aa Computer model using Vensim Computer model using Vensim software package.software package.

Vensim System Dynamics ApproachVensim System Dynamics Approach

A System Dynamics Approach is best A System Dynamics Approach is best suited to understand the phenomenon, suited to understand the phenomenon, and to bring forward any intervention and to bring forward any intervention round to quantitative control.round to quantitative control.

The System Dynamic Approach is a The System Dynamic Approach is a procedure of conceiving the most plausible procedure of conceiving the most plausible governing parameters, building up their governing parameters, building up their interactive equations, and processing interactive equations, and processing them simultaneously, to plot the time line them simultaneously, to plot the time line effect on the resultants.effect on the resultants.

VENSIM MODELVENSIM MODEL

Vensim model can help with Vensim model can help with a) detailing out options for solutions a) detailing out options for solutions b) monitoring a process once put in b) monitoring a process once put in

place place c) execution and controlc) execution and control Vensim model parameters do not Vensim model parameters do not

necessarily need to be derived from necessarily need to be derived from statistical data.statistical data.

The model should be put together such The model should be put together such that it makes sense in the first placethat it makes sense in the first place and be reviewed thoroughlyand be reviewed thoroughly

Then once the model presents aThen once the model presents a solutionsolution,,then we can 'set values of the then we can 'set values of the parameters using practical judgment parameters using practical judgment and parametric performance analysis and parametric performance analysis given objectives'given objectives'

Then we can set the process in place Then we can set the process in place and use statistical data gathering to a) and use statistical data gathering to a) monitor the performance of the process monitor the performance of the process and b) refine the model parameters and and b) refine the model parameters and improve fidelity if neededimprove fidelity if needed..

A lot of analysis of options can be done A lot of analysis of options can be done using parameteric sensitivity analysis.using parameteric sensitivity analysis.

The strength of the model really lies in The strength of the model really lies in how well it was put together to start how well it was put together to start withwith

Fixing the process would involve:Fixing the process would involve:

a)a) Curb unfounded propagandaCurb unfounded propaganda

b)b) Care & concern atmosphereCare & concern atmosphere

c)c) Authorities conductAuthorities conduct

d)d) Campaign for awareness of people Campaign for awareness of people

FactorsFactors Factor S: Societal AcceptanceFactor S: Societal Acceptance

Rejection according to a set of Rejection according to a set of

values. values. Factor E: Emotional Control Factor E: Emotional Control

Release CushionRelease Cushion Factor A: Ability to act and get away Factor A: Ability to act and get away

with it. with it. Factor I: Existence of early IndicatorsFactor I: Existence of early Indicators

Intervening MechanismIntervening Mechanism

MeasurementMeasurement

Favourable opinions expressedFavourable opinions expressed per year per year ExpressionsExpressions Per Year Per Year

Source of InformationSource of Information News PaperNews Paper ClippingsClippings ProtestationsProtestations Reporting Reporting QuestionnairesQuestionnaires

Evaluate Relative InfluenceEvaluate Relative Influence

Compare Localities where strong Compare Localities where strong acceptance/rejection forces exist with those acceptance/rejection forces exist with those where they do not.where they do not.

Compare localities of greater emotional Compare localities of greater emotional stress with those of lesser emotional stress.stress with those of lesser emotional stress.

Compare localities where Compare localities where prejudiceprejudice exists exists with those where this does not exist.with those where this does not exist.

Compare localities where there are more Compare localities where there are more communications and interventions with communications and interventions with those where they are none.those where they are none.

1.Calculation of 1.Calculation of ConflictConflict Pressure Pressure FactorsFactors

Place -1 Place -1 Where Where Societal Societal ConflictConflict is is maximum maximum

Place -2 Place -2 Where Where Societal Societal ConflictConflict is is minimal minimal

Number of Number of People People attributed attributed to to ConflictConflict Pressure Pressure

Societal Societal ConflictConflict Factor Factor

Magnitude Magnitude of Conflictof Conflict

30300000 26260000 440000 440000/28/280000=0.14 =0.14

Method of Relating Results with ActionsMethod of Relating Results with Actions1. Calculation of Awareness Campaign Factor1. Calculation of Awareness Campaign Factor

Place -1Place -1

WhereWhere

AwarenessAwareness

CampaignCampaign

Has BeenHas Been

Maximum Maximum

Place -2Place -2

WhereWhere

AwarenessAwareness

CampaignCampaign

Has beenHas been

Minimum Minimum

Number ofNumber of

PeoplePeople/Year /Year

Attributed toAttributed to

AwarenessAwareness

Campaign Campaign

Awareness Awareness Campaign Campaign Factor Factor

Magnit-Magnit-ude of ude of conflictconflict

34340000 40400000 -6-60000 -6-60000/37/370000

=-0.16 =-0.16

Vensim Modeling OutputsVensim Modeling Outputs

Be One Think One Act OneBe One Think One Act One

THANK THANK

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