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IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

IEA’s work on Clean Energy Innovation and update on Technology Collaboration Programmes (TCPs)

Simone Landolina, Partnerships and Innovation Counsellor, IEA

Italian IEA TCP Day – Rome, 25 November 2019


2018 – a remarkable year in energy

Global energy demand grew by 2.3% in 2018, the fastest pace this decade, driven by a robust global

economy, unseasonal weather, and moderate energy prices

Annual change in global primary energy demand, 2011-18

100

200

300

400

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mtoe

Coal

Oil

Gas

Nuclear

Renewables


World energy efficiency improvements are slowing

2018 saw a worrying slowdown in energy efficiency

despite IEA analysis showing huge untapped potential in all sectors

Average annual change in primary energy intensity, 2010-18

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018


Energy-related CO2 emissions hit a record high in 2018

The need to accelerate innovation and clean energy transitions is underscored

by CO2 emissions reaching a record high in 2018

Annual change in global energy-related CO2 emissions

- 200

0

200

400

600

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

MtCO2


Power and SUVs have been the main forces driving emissions higher

Change in CO2 emissions by energy sector, 2010-2018

The global fleet of SUVs increased from 35 million in 2010 to over 200 million in 2018, becoming a major

force in rising oil demand and the second-largest reason for CO2 emissions growth since 2010

SUVs Power Heavy industry

Trucks Aviation Shipping Other cars

- 400

400

800

1 200

1 600 Mt CO2

0


Perspectives from energy history

Global energy demand

The last century has witnessed multiple transitions to and from different fuels and technologies

2040 2018 2000 1974 1950 1919

Coal Natural gas Wood Modern renewables Nuclear Oil

0%

100%

50%

14 300 Mtoe

1 500 Mtoe

The challenge today is one of scale: global energy use is ten times higher than in 1919 …. and growing

in the Stated Policies Scenario


Africa emerges as a key driver for global energy markets

With rapidly rising population and a major switch away from the traditional use of biomass, Africa

emerges as a major source of global growth for oil, natural gas and renewables

Total population by region

Bill

ion

peo

ple

0.5

1

1.5

2

China India Africa

2018 2023 2040

Africa’s role in global energy growth, 2018-40

Oil demand Natural gas demand

Africa

1

2

3

4

India China Middle East

mb

/d

Africa

100

200

300

400

China Middle East

India

bcm

500

1 000

1 500

3 000

TWh

Renewables generation

China India Africa European Union

Africa Case


No single or simple solutions to reach sustainable energy goals

Energy-related CO2 emissions and reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario by source

A host of policies and technologies will be needed across every sector to keep climate targets within reach,

and further technology innovation will be essential to aid the pursuit of a 1.5°C stabilisation

10

20

30

40

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Gt CO2

Other renewables end-uses

Nuclear

Sustainable Development Scenario

Biofuels transport

Air conditioners

Cars & trucks Heavy industry

Wind Solar PV

Hydro

Electric vehicles Fuel switch incl. hydrogen

Buildings

CCUS power

Current Trends

Efficiency

Renewables

Fuel switch, CCUS and other

Aviation and shipping

Power

CCUS industry

Other renewables power

Light industry

Stated Policies Scenario Industrial electric motors

Behavioural change Resource efficiency


Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2019 – www.iea.org/tcep

Power

Renewable power

Solar PV

Onshore wind

Offshore wind

Hydropower

Bioenergy

Geothermal

CSP

Ocean

Nuclear power

Gas-fired power

Coal-fired power

CCUS in power

Fuel supply

Methane emissions from oil and gas

Flaring emissions

Industry

Chemicals

Iron and steel

Cement

Pulp and paper

Aluminium

CCUS in industry &

transformation

Transport

Electric vehicles

Fuel economy

Trucks & buses

Transport biofuels

Aviation

Shipping

Rail

Buildings

Building envelopes

Heating

Heat pumps

Cooling

Lighting

Appliances &

equipment

Data centres and

networks

Energy storage

Hydrogen

Smart grids

Demand response

Energy integration


Solar PV drives strong rebound in renewable capacity expansion

Renewable capacity growth between 2019 and 2024 by technology

Renewables expand by 50% through 2024, with distributed PV alone growing as much as onshore wind

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Solar PV

Onshore wind

Hydropower

Offshore wind

Bioenergy

Others

GW

Distributed PV


Distributed PV expansion more than doubles

Distributed PV growth by country/region

Over the next five years, China’s distributed PV capacity becomes the world’s biggest, growth in the EU

resumes, and other countries such as India emerge as new markets

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

2007-12

2013-18

2019-24

GW0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

2007-12

2013-18

2019-24

GW

China EU United States Japan India Australia Other countries


Towards a distributed solar PV boom?

Distributed PV total installed capacity

With improved policies, lower costs and rapid adoption, total distributed PV capacity more than

doubles by 2024. However, this represents only 6% of the global technical potential.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2010 2018 2024

Historical Forecast Available rooftop

potential

GW


A huge scale-up in batteries coming – high profile announcements only part of the story

With China particularly taking big leaps in manufacturing output, the

PV story could be repeated for storage

0

3

6

9

0

200

400

600

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2022 (announced)

USD billion Manufacturing capacity, GWh

China Asia Pacific North America Europe Other Annual investment (right axis)


System flexibility: Identifying and engaging with the right actor is key

A range of approaches to enhance power system flexibility are available at different levels of decision

making. The institutional context defines the set of instruments available to boost system flexibility.

Energy ministry

Regulatory agency

System operator, electric

utility, standards body

Energy strategies

Legal frameworks

Policies and programmes

Regulatory frameworks and decisions

Power sector planning exercises

Retail electricity pricing

Typical decision makers

Institutions and actors

(“Who”)

Categories of interventions

Policy, market and regulatory

frameworks (“How”)

Hardware and infrastructure

(“What”)

Flexibility Asset types

Power plants Electricity networks

Energy storage Distributed energy

resources

Power market rules and codes

System operation protocols

Connection codes

Source: Status of Power System Transformation 2019


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2025 2030

millio

n c

ars

Others

United States

Europe

China

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2025 2030

millio

n c

ars

Others

United States

Europe

China

SDS

The electric car stock surpassed 5 million in 2018, of which nearly 2/3 are battery electric vehicles.

2018 was another record-breaking year for global electric car sales

BEV = battery electric vehicle

PHEV = plug-in hybrid electric vehicle

Electric vehicles Global electric car stock


Global public R&D investment in clean energy needs to rise further

Public R&D in clean energy increased in 2018 to USD 22 billion,

but amounts to just 0.1% of total government spending

Total public spending on low-carbon energy R&D

0

5

10

15

20

25

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

USD

(2018) b

illio

n

0

5

10

15

20

25

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

USD

(2018) b

illio

n

Rest of World

Canada

China

Japan

Europe

US


A record year for venture capital investment in clean energy

Early-stage VC investment in energy tech start-ups reached USD 6.9 billion,

mostly focused on low-carbon (especially transport)

Global venture capital investment in energy technology companies

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Avg. 2007-11 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

USD

(2018) b

illio

n

Other energy

Other clean energy

Energy efficiency

Other renewables

Bioenergy

Solar

Transport


Conclusions

• Global CO2 emissions are on the rise again indicating growing disconnect between climate goals and

energy-market trends

• Solar, wind, storage & digital technologies are transforming the electricity sector, but an inclusive and

deep transition also means tackling legacy issues from existing infrastructure

• Only 7 of 45 energy technologies and sectors are on track for what is required to reach a sustainable

energy future

• Energy technology innovation is key to foster energy transitions. In 2018, public and private investment

in R&D for low-carbon energy technologies rose slightly; but remains at levels that risk not delivering all

the solutions we need.

• Even with ongoing cost reductions, government policy remains crucial to attract investment in

renewables and energy networks, ensure appropriate market design and for reliable & cost-effective

system integration

• The IEA remains committed to providing decision makers with timely data, rigorous analysis, and a unique

global network of Technology Collaboration Programmes to accelerate real-world solutions


Energy R&D

data collection

and analysis

(public and

private sector)

Tracking Clean

Energy

Progress

Cross-cutting

thematic work

(e.g. hydrogen,

digitalization)

In-Depth

Reviews (IDRs)

/ “The Future

of” series

Clean Energy

Transitions

Programme

IEA’s work on energy R&D and innovation

The IEA, as the leading provider of energy data, rigorous analysis and real-world solutions for energy transitions

around the world, is looking to build upon its 45-year history of promoting energy innovation

Technology

Collaboration

Programme

(TCP)

Cooperation

with Mission

Innovation G20 / G7

Other

partnerships:

Biofuture

Platform, ISA,

IRENA, UN

initiatives, …


IEA innovation work in 2019 - digital first approach


Innovation efforts within CETP

0

5

10

15

20

25

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

USD

(2018)

billio

n

Rest of

World

Canada

China

Japan

Europe

US

Total public spending on low-carbon energy R&D (2018)

1. R&D data tracking. Help countries to collect and

report better data, especially Mission Innovation

participant

2. Innovation policies. Tailored support to energy

innovation policy review, implementation and best-

practice sharing (drawing from and feeding into TCEP,

IDRs, etc..)

3. Partnerships. Map country participation in TCPs and

other innovation partnerships, seeking to identify

synergies and foster strategic engagement across

initiatives


TCPs – a vibrant global innovation network

38 Technology Collaboration Programmes

55 countries

6,000 experts

300 public and private organisations

2,000+ topics

This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries, and to the name of any territory, city or area.

Map of global participation in TCPs


3rd TCP Universal Meeting (18-19 June 2019)

• A biennial event, following on previous meetings in

Sept. 2015 and Oct. 2017 (ahead of IEA Ministerial)

• First day jointly hosted by CERT and SLT; networking

with leading scientists and experts

• Preparations guided by CERT Task Force on TCP

Enhancement, co-led by Australia and US, with Italy,

Netherlands, Norway, Turkey and UK

• Largest TCP UM ever (35 TCPs)!

• New TCP website, video and logo (www.iea.org/tcp)

• New individual 2-page brochure for each TCP

• Joint summary by the SLT Chair and CERT Chair

http://www.iea.org/tcp


IEA paper on Energy Technology Innovation Partnerships

Context. Effort guided by CERT TF#1. Despite central role of

innovation in global energy transitions, there is limited information on

the landscape of multilateral initiatives, and how they interact

Aim. To map and analyse innovation-related partnerships, to identify

synergies, inform policy makers and foster strategic engagement

across initiatives

Focus. Comparative analysis of TCPs, MI, CEM and EU-ETIPs

Findings. (1) Policy makers and the broader innovation ecosystem

may benefit from an online, searchable repository of collaborative

mechanisms. (2) Cross-mechanism collaboration may increase the

impact of respective efforts - eight areas of technology focus overlap.

(3) Output-oriented frameworks to track ongoing activities could be

further explored and tested, delivering publicly available information

https://webstore.iea.org/energy-

technology-innovation-partnerships


Participation by TCP and by category


Total participation by country


TCP participation: current and prospective

The 2019 TCP-wide survey revealed that TCPs are seeking further engagement within the IEA Family.

In emerging economies there is potential for strong growth in participation.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Key emerging market countries identified by TCPs as prospective members


TCP funding mechanisms

Three quarter of TCPs responded that they use cost sharing as part or all of their funding mechanism


Modernisation of the TCP legal mechanisms: Three aspects

• Update the TCP Framework that applies to all TCPs

- Must be approved by Governing Board, upon recommendation of the CERT

• Amend each of the 38 Implementing Agreements

- All TCPs would need to amend to incorporate new Framework concepts

- Simplify procedures set out in the Implementing Agreements

• Replace and update informal guidance documents

- Some updates already in place, others will proceed on rolling basis


Updating the TCP Framework – Changes in five key areas

1. Update terminology to Technology Collaboration Programme

2. Recognise equal access for IEA Accession and Association countries

3. Strengthen mandate for the IEA Secretariat to work with TCPs

Authorise IEA to act as “Coordinator” to lead a TCP task

4. New participant category Limited Sponsors

Participation limited to a single task with greatly simplified process

5. Stronger role for external partnerships and collaborations

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