Iea presentation3

MARK COUGHLAN

Department of Economics University College Cork

Mark Coughlan | T: +35351873052 | M: +353877461420 | E: [email protected]

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“...in a number of cases, there is a significant effect of

clarity. In those cases, the direction of the effect is intuitive:

greater clarity coincides with less volatility in financial

markets.”

“We find that the global financial crisis contributed to

making central bank communication less clear.”


“Volume is based on the notion that the frequency with

which a candidate mentions a particular issue reflects the

importance the candidate assigns to it.”

– Burden and Sanberg (2003:102)

“The quantitative analysis of text is primarily based on the

proposition that preference profiles of speakers can be

constructed from their word frequencies. This makes word

frequencies the most important data input to almost all

existing methods of text analysis.”

- Mikhaylov and Herzog (2010:9)


Burden and Sanberg (2003:99) state that

an “incumbent candidate wants to take

credit for positive performance and

deflect blame for poor performance”.


“Tone accounts for a efforts to use rhetoric to

shape voter’s point of view...”

- Burden and Sanberg (2003:102)


Flesch Kincaid Grade measurement is an Indicator of Text Clarity based on Average Sentence Length and Average Number of Syllables per Word.

The formula for the Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level score is:

(.39 x ASL) + (11.8 x ASW) – 15.59


Word Frequencies: Calculated using KWIC software.

“The quantitative analysis of text is primarily based on the

proposition that preference profiles of speakers can be

constructed from their word frequencies. This makes word

frequencies the most important data input to almost all

existing methods of text analysis.”

- Mikhaylov and Herzog (2010:9)


Word Frequencies: Calculated using KWIC software.

Focus on Pronominal Preference

“The first person singular pronoun I refers to the speaker and

shows his personal involvement, being especially useful when

good news is announced.”

“The plural pronoun forms [we] give a sense of collectivity

and help to share responsibility, especially when decisions

are highly controversial, unpopular and doubtful.”

- Karapetjana (2011)

• Semantria is a text analytics software programme used to determine tone of a text.

• Semantria assigns a score to each sentence. Score > 0 indicates a positive tone. Score < 0 indicates a negative tone.

• Average sentiment score is sum of sentiment scores of each sentence divided by the number of sentences in text.


TEXTUAL CLARITY


10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

17.0

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

FKG Measurement of Budget Speeches 1924 to 2014



FKG Measurment of Budget Speeches 1980 to 1989

13.2

13.3

13.4

13.5

13.6

13.7

13.8

13.9

14

14.1

14.2

1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016


FKG Measurment of Budget Speeches 2000 to 2014

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2011

2012

2013

2014

2008

2009

2009*

2010

9.92 5.67

6.55

17.92

10.86

6.42

1.87

8.19

9.02

3.35

1.64

5.09

-

7.37 7.21

3.39 4.91 7.34

1.55 -

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

McCreevy Cowen Lenihan Noonan

Welfare

Social

Health

Disability

Child

Care

Top Expenditure Related Words in Budget Speeches 2000 to 2014. Frequencies of Occurrence, per 1,000 words


“Many have beaten a path to our door to inquire how we did it. We did not achieve all this merely by chance. The actions of Government in setting a sound economic and fiscal policy played a key role in achieving our current success” (Budget 2005)

“We are living in the midst of the longest and strongest era of sustained prosperity in our history. This did not happen by chance. It involved careful planning” (Budget 2006)

“The success we enjoy now has been brought about by the hard work of our people, responding to the policies of this Government” (Budget 2007)

“That success is down to the commitment and drive of our people. Recent Governments have succeeded in managing the growth of the economy so that it has been sustained for much longer than anticipated” (Budget 2008)

“We find ourselves in one of the most difficult and uncertain times in living memory. Turmoil in the financial markets and steep increases in commodity prices have put enormous pressures on economies throughout the world.” (Budget 2009)

“Rapid growth in the early years was driven by exports. As in many other countries, the later stages were accompanied by a property bubble, fuelled in part by very low interest rates and the ready availability of credit” (Supplementary Budget 2009)

“the Government’s strategy over the last eighteen months is working and we can now see the first signs of a recovery here at home and in our main international markets”; (Budget 2010)

“we need their [EU/IMF] support to break the vicious cycle that has threatened our national finances and our banking system since the second quarter of this year. Following the Greek crisis this spring, funding for the State and our banks became increasingly expensive.” (Budget 2011)

“We got into this position by seeking, with the full support of those opposite, to spread the benefits of the boom across every section of the population.” (Budget 2010)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009* 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


Ratio of the Number of Occurrences of ‘WE’ to ‘I’

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016


Average Sentiment Scores of Budget Speeches 2000 - 2014


CLARITY: Greater clarity in Lenihan budgets not expected given volatile economic background. VOLUME: Tendency for Ministers to emphasise popular aspects of policy and de-emphasise unpopular aspects expected. OWNERSHIP: As expected for McCreevy, Cowen, and Lenihan Budgets, but not for Noonan budgets. TONE: Consistently Positive Tone as expected. Slight drop in positivity in Lenihan and Noonan budgets to be expected given adverse economic and budgetary situation

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