IDirect MonthlySectoral...

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ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research November 25, 2016 Monthly Technical Emergence of value area = buying time… Domestic equity benchmarks witnessed the biggest monthly fall since February 2016 as markets were jolted by two unexpected events in the form of demonetisation of higher denomination currency notes in an unprecedented crackdown on black money and the outcome of the US presidential election. The Nifty behaved contrary to our expectations as following huge bouts of volatility, the index breached last three months base of 8500 and drifted to a six month low (7916) weighed down by profit booking across the board. What we expect ¾ We expect the Nifty to take support around the 7700-7800 region in the present scenario (as it is the confluence of the 61.8% retracement of the 2016 rise and the previous bullish gap area) and gradually attempt a pullback towards the 200 day EMA currently placed around the 8300 region over the coming month ¾ The down move in November 2016 and collective decline of nearly 12% since September 2016 has rendered the market deeply oversold and led the Nifty near close proximity of the long term value area around 7700-7800. Going forward, we expect the index to enter into a base formation phase as the price wise correction is approaching maturity. Therefore, we believe this presents a good opportunity for investors with a long term horizon to start building a portfolio of quality stocks to ride the next phase of the larger uptrend in the coming year Bull market correction approaching key value area Historically, majority of the secondary corrections within the context of a structural bull market on the domestic bourses have measured around 12- 15% from the intermediate peak. Since 2003, out of the 14 major instances of bull market corrections, on 10 occasions, the depth of corrections has not been more than 12-15%. Post the normal bull market correction, the index has generated positive returns over the subsequent six months horizon on each of the 10 occasions. In the present context, the Nifty has corrected nearly 12% from the September 2016 peak of 8968. Going by the historical tendency, we believe the ongoing secondary correction is approaching price wise maturity and, therefore, provides a window for investors to start accumulating quality stocks from a long term horizon. The market appears to be discounting major negative events in the current corrective phase. In the present scenario, the index is seen approaching important value area placed around 7700-7800 region being the confluence of following: ¾ The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire 2016 up move from 6825 to 8968 is placed around 7700 region ¾ Major bullish gap area formed on May 25, 2016 is placed between 7809 and 7748 ¾ Price wise equality with the last falling segment (8736 to 8002) from recent swing high of 8598 is also placed around 7860 region Record oversold readings on momentum oscillators warrant a pullback The sharp decline in November has driven momentum oscillators, 14 period RSI and short-term stochastic to multi-year lows indicating extremely oversold conditions. The 14 period RSI on daily chart had plunged to a low of 22, its lowest reading since August 2011 whereas the short-term stochastic on the daily chart nosedived to its lowest reading (4) since December 2015. Sharp oversold readings on momentum oscillators suggest that a technical pullback may be on the cards in the coming month. a74 Indices Snapshot % from 3-month 12-month Indices 200 EMA % chg % chg Sensex 25860 -5% -6.8 0.7 CNX Nifty 7966 -4% -7.0 2.0 CNX Mid Cap 14310 0% -4.8 9.4 CNX Small Cap 5604 -3% -7.7 3.8 CNX IT 9656 -10% -8.8 -12.0 BSE Auto 19386 -4% -8.0 4.0 CNX Pharma 10762 -6% -6.1 -7.2 CNX FMCG 19852 -6% -10.7 -1.4 BSE Banking 20938 1% -4.5 8.8 BSE Oil & Gas 11644 12% 7.9 26.2 BSE Metal 10368 14% 5.5 48.6 BSE Capital Goods 13640 -7% -8.2 -4.9 BSE Power 1943 -1% -6.7 4.1 BSE Realty 1236 -18% -20.9 -4.6 BSE PSU 7659 8% 3.3 13.8 * Closing Price of November 24, 2016 Close Source: BSE India, NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research * BSE has replaced IT, health care, FMCG, midcap and small cap indices with new ones. Due to lack of historical data, we have considered the CNX IT, pharma, FMCG, mid-cap and small cap indices for reference Top picks for December 2016 NTPC Power Grid Cadila Healthcare Dishman Pharma All stock recommendations have been initiated on i-click to gain prior to releasing of report. Exact timings mentioned at bottom of the rationale mentioned later in the report *Hindustan Zinc buy recommendation given on November 23, 2016, 11:04 am on i-click to gain at |252 and booked 50% at 271 on November 24, 2016 Performance of stock recommendations (FY 2016-17) Total Recommendation 37 Positive 29 Open 0 Strike rate 78% Avg. return on positive call 12%

Transcript of IDirect MonthlySectoral...

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ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

November 25, 2016Monthly Technical

Emergence of value area = buying time… Domestic equity benchmarks witnessed the biggest monthly fall since February 2016 as markets were jolted by two unexpected events in the form of demonetisation of higher denomination currency notes in an unprecedented crackdown on black money and the outcome of the US presidential election. The Nifty behaved contrary to our expectations as following huge bouts of volatility, the index breached last three months base of 8500 and drifted to a six month low (7916) weighed down by profit booking across the board.

What we expect

We expect the Nifty to take support around the 7700-7800 region in the present scenario (as it is the confluence of the 61.8% retracement of the 2016 rise and the previous bullish gap area) and gradually attempt a pullback towards the 200 day EMA currently placed around the 8300 region over the coming month

The down move in November 2016 and collective decline of nearly 12% since September 2016 has rendered the market deeply oversold and led the Nifty near close proximity of the long term value area around 7700-7800. Going forward, we expect the index to enter into a base formation phase as the price wise correction is approaching maturity. Therefore, we believe this presents a good opportunity for investors with a long term horizon to start building a portfolio of quality stocks to ride the next phase of the larger uptrend in the coming year

Bull market correction approaching key value area Historically, majority of the secondary corrections within the context of a structural bull market on the domestic bourses have measured around 12-15% from the intermediate peak. Since 2003, out of the 14 major instances of bull market corrections, on 10 occasions, the depth of corrections has not been more than 12-15%. Post the normal bull market correction, the index has generated positive returns over the subsequent six months horizon on each of the 10 occasions. In the present context, the Nifty has corrected nearly 12% from the September 2016 peak of 8968. Going by the historical tendency, we believe the ongoing secondary correction is approaching price wise maturity and, therefore, provides a window for investors to start accumulating quality stocks from a long term horizon. The market appears to be discounting major negative events in the current corrective phase. In the present scenario, the index is seen approaching important value area placed around 7700-7800 region being the confluence of following:

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire 2016 up move from 6825 to 8968 is placed around 7700 region

Major bullish gap area formed on May 25, 2016 is placed between 7809 and 7748

Price wise equality with the last falling segment (8736 to 8002) from recent swing high of 8598 is also placed around 7860 region

Record oversold readings on momentum oscillators warrant a pullback

The sharp decline in November has driven momentum oscillators, 14 period RSI and short-term stochastic to multi-year lows indicating extremely oversold conditions. The 14 period RSI on daily chart had plunged to a low of 22, its lowest reading since August 2011 whereas the short-term stochastic on the daily chart nosedived to its lowest reading (4) since December 2015. Sharp oversold readings on momentum oscillators suggest that a technical pullback may be on the cards in the coming month.

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Indices Snapshot

% from 3-month 12-monthIndices 200 EMA % chg % chgSensex 25860 -5% -6.8 0.7CNX Nifty 7966 -4% -7.0 2.0CNX Mid Cap 14310 0% -4.8 9.4CNX Small Cap 5604 -3% -7.7 3.8CNX IT 9656 -10% -8.8 -12.0BSE Auto 19386 -4% -8.0 4.0CNX Pharma 10762 -6% -6.1 -7.2CNX FMCG 19852 -6% -10.7 -1.4

BSE Banking 20938 1% -4.5 8.8

BSE Oil & Gas 11644 12% 7.9 26.2

BSE Metal 10368 14% 5.5 48.6

BSE Capital Goods 13640 -7% -8.2 -4.9

BSE Power 1943 -1% -6.7 4.1BSE Realty 1236 -18% -20.9 -4.6BSE PSU 7659 8% 3.3 13.8* Closing Price of November 24, 2016

Close

Source: BSE India, NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research

* BSE has replaced IT, health care, FMCG, midcap and small cap indices with new ones. Due to lack of historical data, we have considered the CNX IT, pharma, FMCG, mid-cap and small cap indices for reference

Top picks for December 2016

• NTPC

• Power Grid

• Cadila Healthcare

• Dishman Pharma All stock recommendations have been initiated on i-click to gain prior to releasing of report. Exact timings mentioned at bottom of the rationale mentioned later in the report *Hindustan Zinc buy recommendation given on November 23, 2016, 11:04 am on i-click to gain at |252 and booked 50% at 271 on November 24, 2016 Performance of stock recommendations (FY 2016-17)

Total Recommendation 37Positive 29Open 0Strike rate 78%Avg. return on positive call 12%

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Key intermediate hurdle at 8300

We believe pullback efforts from hereon will face stiff hurdle around the 8300 region going forward as it is the confluence of following:

The 200 day EMA that is now tilting southwards is currently placed around 8300 levels

The 61.8% retracement of the last falling segment (8598 to 7916) is placed at 8338

Bearish gap area formed on November 15, 2016 is placed around 8296 making this a stiff intermediate resistance for the index in the coming month

NSE Nifty CMP - 7966

Exhibit 1: NSE Nifty – Weekly Bar Chart

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Research Analyst Dharmesh Shah [email protected] Nitin Kunte, CMT [email protected] Dipesh Dagha [email protected] Pabitro Mukherjee [email protected]

Vinayak Parmar [email protected]

Weekly Stochastic poised at a reading of 9 indicates deeply oversold conditions

9119

8654

8336

Support base at 7700-7800 zone - 61.8% retracement - Bullish Gap area - Price equality with last decline

8844

8968

8728

7927(Brexit Low)

7715

8294 52 Week EMA

8598

8002

52 week EMA & 61.8% @ 8300

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Nifty Bank (18263) – Consolidation to extend in coming month…

Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Generic Futures– Weekly Bar Chart

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

• The Nifty Bank index witnessed unprecedented volatility in November 2016 as the index plunged to a four-month low of 18200 in a panic decline following the two unexpected events in the form of demonetisation and US presidential election results. The index made a dramatic recovery from the panic low only to give up most of the gains over the next two weeks

• As highlighted in the previous edition, the Nifty Bank index has entered into a secondary corrective phase after forming a lower high lower low on the monthly chart for the first time in eight months in October 2016. The panic bottom of November 9, 2016 (18200) is placed near major value area of 17900-18200 being the confluence of following technical parameters:

The long term rising 52 week EMA is currently placed at 18195 Previous major breakout area is placed at 18000 Bullish gap formed on July 2016 is placed between 18059 38.2% retracement of the 2016 up move (13406 to 20649) is placed around 17900

• Going forward, we expect the current volatility to subside over the next few weeks. The index will extend the ongoing secondary consolidation phase by oscillating between the broad range of 17900 to 19500 levels in the coming month. Only a decisive breach and close below the 17900 support zone will signal an extended profit booking led towards 17000 in the short term

• The upper band of the falling channel encompassing the entire decline since September 2016 till date currently placed around 19500 region will act as stiff intermediate resistance for in the coming month. The confluence of 61.8% retracement of the last falling segment (20332 to 18342) placed around 19500 region makes this key overhead hurdle for the index. Only a decisive close above the same will signal end of the current corrective phase and indicate resumption of the uptrend

• Among oscillators, the weekly stochastic

oscillator has plunged to deep oversold reading of 9 indicating overstretched conditions that will lead to supportive efforts at lower levels going forward. The 14 week RSI has also cooled off significantly from the previous overbought threshold and is now poised at a neutral reading of 47

Weekly Stochastic has plunged to deep oversold territory with a reading of 9

20934

19280

18041

Support @ 17900-18200 52 week EMA Bullish Gap area 38.2% retracement

20649 20740 Nifty Bank Index has approached major value area placed around 17900-18200 zone Upper band @

19500

16910

52 Week EMA

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BSE sectoral merry-go-round

In this section, we focus on the relative performance of the BSE sectoral indices. The adjacent scatter chart highlights the relative performance of the 11 major sectors of the BSE relative to the Sensex with the y-axis plotting the relative price momentum over the past 12 months and the x-axis plotting the relative price. The chart is then subdivided into four quadrants.

Leadership quadrant: Top right is “Leadership” quadrant, which represents a sector that has strengthened in relative price and momentum vis-à-vis the Sensex.

Weakening quadrant: Bottom right is the “Weakening” quadrant where the relative price of a sector has started to deteriorate and momentum has started to slow.

Lagging quadrant: Bottom left is the “Lagging” quadrant where the relative price of a sector has become negative with momentum suggesting underperformance vis-à-vis the benchmark.

Improving quadrant: Top left is the “Improving” quadrant where the relative price trend of the sector has started to rise with momentum.

In summary, if a sector appears in the top right quadrant, it indicates the sector is trending higher and outperforming the benchmarks. If a sector appears on the bottom left it indicates it is trending lower. Sectors appearing on the bottom right indicate they are underperforming the benchmark while if they appear in the top left it suggests an improving price momentum.

Note: BSE has replaced IT, health care, FMCG, midcap and small cap indices with new ones. Due to lack of historical data, we have considered the NSE IT, pharma and FMCG indices for reference Exhibit 3: BSE sectoral indices relative performance

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Sector rotation monitor

What each quadrant indicates

Sectors in the top right quadrant indicate strong trending sectors

• Pharma & IT continue to build relative strength amid extending profit booking across high beta rate sensitives: The BSE Healthcare index gained further ground on relative terms and is on the verge of crossing over to leading quadrant implying continued strength on relative terms. The IT index has shown further pick-up in momentum in relative terms. This will be the sector to watch out in coming months as relative rotation trend indicates the prolonged corrective phase appears to have neared maturity

• BSE Oil & Gas and PSU indices have gained further strength on the relative price and momentum terms and are poised in top of the leading quadrant implying continuance of relative outperformance vis-à-vis the benchmark, going forward

• The BSE banking, auto and metal indices

continue to slip further within the leading quadrant suggesting cool off in relative price and momentum amid continued profit booking trend. Auto index is poised at the neutral line implying an inline performance with the market going forward

• The BSE FMCG index has slipped into lagging quadrant indicating extension of the time wise consolidation in coming months. Meanwhile the Capital Goods, Realty and Power indices are also on the verge of entering the lagging quadrant implying relative underperformance going ahead

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Sectoral performance – Relative to benchmarks In order to closely gauge the underlying strength in respective sectors vis-à-vis the benchmark, we analyse the Relative Strength Comparative (RSC) indicator. As the name suggests, it is a comparative measure of strength vis-à-vis a benchmark or a sector. While the RSC line is rising, the sector is outperforming the general market, i.e. it is either rising faster than the benchmark in an up trending market or going down less, in a down trending market or even rising. While the RSC line is falling, the sector is underperforming the broad equity market. If the market is going up, the sector is going up less or may be even going down. If the market is going down when the RSC line is falling, the sector is going down more than the market. A flat RSC line indicates in line market performance going up or down by the same magnitude. The purpose of this exercise is to identify those sectors that are outperforming and avoid the sectors that are underperforming.

BSE Auto Index The sharp correction signals loss of strong momentum. While pull backs from oversold zone are not ruled out they are likely to be short lived as sector looks set for a medium term consolidation. On a relative basis, sector may take a back seat in the short term while long term outperformance is intact so far RSC line remains above the maroon trend line

Exhibit 4: BSE Auto Index – Weekly Bar Chart Exhibit 5: BSE Auto Index vs. Sensex – Relative Comparison

Relative Strength Comparative: Evaluating

the underlying strength

Ratio line is approaching long term trend line indicating short term under performance for the sector

BSE Auto Index and relative to Sensex

Short term pull back likely amid Medium term consolidation..

14-week RSI hit its overbought status

20386

Breach of trend line indicates loss of momentum and secondary correction likely over next few months.

11224

23209

15385

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Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

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BSE Capital Goods Index Capital goods stocks corrected in tandem with benchmarks amid lack of leadership. After five weeks of correction, the index is approaching key trend line support and likely to pose a bounce back. RSC line is also placed at key displacement although on relative basis under performance may continue

Exhibit 6: BSE Capital goods Index Weekly Bar chart

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 7: BSE Capital goods v Sensex – Relative Comparison

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

NSE Pharma Index Despite recent volatility in benchmarks, the index did well to hold its support of ~10500 in November 2016. Heavyweights are placed at key supports while stocks like Dishman Pharma, Jubilant life, Cadila are exhibiting resilience and likely to outperform

Exhibit 8: NSE Pharma Index Weekly Bar chart

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 9: NSE Pharma Index vs. Nifty – Relative Comparison

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Stock specific out performance...

While index is weighed by few heavyweights, stock specific out performance is likely within sector

Outperformance on relative basis visible as index did not correct vis-a vis benchmarks

BSE Capital Goods Index and relative to Sensex

Pullback likely from oversold zone although in relative terms under performance may continue

Sector is expected to do well as RSC line is placed at key support

Double top

Index is likely to attract value buying near key trend line placed at 13000 levels

12770

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BSE Oil & Gas Index The Oil & Gas index extended its relative outperformance led by upstream oil companies and gas marketers, as the sector index scaled eight year highs. We expect the relative outperformance to continue in December while on an absolute basis another 12-14% upside is likely within channelled up move. Oil India, Gail and gas distributors look positive

Exhibit 10: BSE Oil & Gas Index Monthly Bar Chart

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 11: BSE Oil & Gas Index vs. Sensex – Relative Comparison

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

NSE IT Index The IT index is placed at lower band of downward channel and held its November 8 panic lows indicating a pullback in coming months. In relative terms, though the index may still underperform, stock specific outperformance is likely. Infosys, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra look attractive

Exhibit 12: NSE IT Index Weekly Bar Chart

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 13: NSE IT Index vs. Nifty – Relative Comparison

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Outperformance to extend

Price damage seems done, pull back likely..

Sector index rose to fresh two year highs

RSC line is strongly trending up after a falling channel breakout indicating extended out performance

The RSC line likely to stabilise around 1.20 and move sideways amid continued underperformance

IT index is placed at its previous swing low and lower band of channel

BSE Oil & Gas Index and relative to Sensex

Oscillator turning higher supporting bullish momentum

NSE IT Index and relative to Nifty

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NSE FMCG Index The FMCG index retraced preceding rally by 61.8% and look set for a pull back. Although heavyweights like ITC may remain in a range resulting in relative under performance, stocks like Marico, HUL, Godrej Consumer products look attractive

Exhibit 14: NSE FMCG Index Weekly Bar Chart

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 15: NSE FMCG Index vs. Nifty – Relative Comparison

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

BSE PSU Index PSU stocks including banks outperformed benchmarks in November. The index gained for six months and is currently poised at a key trend line hurdle. We expect the sector to continue its outperformance in coming month both in terms of relative performance and momentum. Stocks like Hindustan Zinc, NTPC, and Gail look positive

Exhibit 16: BSE PSU Index Monthly Bar Chart

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 17: BSE PSU Index vs. Sensex – Relative Comparison

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Index likely to pose a pull back from oversold zone amid stock specific action

On the verge of a breakout...buy declines...

Retraced preceding rally by 61.8%, short term pull back likely

After recent underperformance, RSC line placed at lower band of channel. A pull back likely although significant out performance not visible

The ratio line is seen breaching its long term downtrend suggesting relative outperformance in coming months

Breakout above downward slopping trend line would trigger further upsides

NSE FMCG Index and relative to Nifty

Monthly RSI is trending up supporting bullish view

BSE PSU Index and relative to Sensex

17406

23219 22716

61.8% retracement

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BSE Metal Index The Metal index took a breather near key trend line resistance over the past three months, after six month rally and now looks set for a breakout above key trend line at 11000 levels. On a relative basis, the index is expected to outperform led by stocks like Tata Steel, Hindalco and NMDC.

Exhibit 18: BSE METAL Index Monthly Bar Chart

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 19: BSE METAL Index vs. Sensex – Relative Comparison

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Looks set for a breakout after three months consolidation...

Index poised at lower band of channel. Consolidation likely in short-term

A breakout above the channel would mean extended out performance for the sector

BSE METAL Index and relative to Sensex

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Stock Picks

NTPC (NTPC) Buying Range: |152.00 – 157.00 Target: | 179.00 Stop losses: | 141.00 Exhibit 20: NTPC – Weekly Bar Chart

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Power Grid (POWGRI) Buying Range: | 181.00 – 185.00 Target: | 210.00 Stop losses: | 170.00 Exhibit 21: Power Grid – Month Bar Chart

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

52 Weeks EMA

Change of Polarity as previous trend line resistance acting as support thus provides fresh entry opportunity to ride the next up move

138.2% retracement @ 179

• The most important observation on the weekly chart of NTPC is that the stock has seen a change of polarity as previous trend line resistance joining the highs of 2014 (| 169) and 2015 (| 164) has reversed its role and is acting as support as can be seen in the adjacent chart. Thus, provides a fresh entry opportunity to ride the next up move in the stock

• The corrective decline from the 52 weeks high of |

170 in the last three months has helped the stock price to work out the excess of the previous rally and discover a value area around | 145. In the last one month, the stock has witnessed a base formation at the major support area being the confluence of the 52 weeks EMA placed at | 146 levels and the 50% retracement of the previous major rally from | 117 to | 170

• We expect the stock to resume its uptrend after

the recent base formation and head towards | 179 levels in the coming months being the 138.2% retracement of the recent decline from | 170 to | 144 levels

Recommendation has been initiated on i-click to gain at 12:53 on November 23, 2016.

170

117

164169

Weekly 14 period’s RSI has generated a buy signal

Bullish Flag pattern breakout offers fresh entry opportunity to ride the next up move in the stock

Price parity with previous rally @ 215

• The share price of Power Grid has registered a resolute breakout above the Bullish Flag pattern during previous month’s trade to signal conclusion of the temporary breather and continuation of the prior up trend thus offering a fresh entry opportunity with favourable reward/risk set-up

• The stock is in a secular uptrend forming higher

peak and higher trough in all time frames. The corrective decline off September 2016 life-time high of | 187 got anchored at the 38.2% retracement of the previous major up move from | 140 to | 187. A sharp pullback from the support levels resulted in a faster retracement of its last falling segment as nine weeks decline is completely retraced in just two weeks. A faster retracement of the last falling segment indicates a strong uptrend and augurs well for the stock, going forward

• Based on the aforementioned observations, we

believe the current breakout from the flag formation provides good entry opportunity. We expect the stock to test levels of | 215 in the coming months being the price parity with the previous up move from | 140 to | 187 as projected from the recent trough of | 167

Recommendation has been initiated on i-click to gain at 14:17 on November 24, 2016.

167

187

140

Price breakout with a rise in volume indicates larger participation in direction of trend

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Cadila Healthcare (CADHEA) Buying Range: ` 380.00–386.00 Target: ` 440.00 Stop loss: ` 345.00 Exhibit 22: Cadila Healthcare– Weekly Bar Chart

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Dishman Pharma (DISPHA) Buying Range: | 237.00 – 242.00 Target: | 269.00 Stop losses: | 224.00 Exhibit 23: Dishman Pharma – Weekly Bar Chart

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Price rebound from the long term trend line support indicates positive price structure and offers fresh entry opportunity

Weekly 14 period’s RSI in positive trend

• The share price of Cadila Healthcare has displayed strength during the recent corrective decline in the overall market as the stock witness sharp rebound from the major support levels signalling resumption of the positive trend

• The recent bottom around | 345 is placed at an important value area being the confluence of the following technical parameters: a) The long term trend line support joining the

major lows since 2013 currently placed at | 345 levels

b) The 61.8% retracement of the previous major up move from | 305 to | 430 is placed at | 350 levels

c) The stock has the tendency of bottom formation around the 52 weeks as can be seen in the adjacent chart which is currently placed at 360 levels

• Among oscillators, the weekly 14 period’s RSI is

forming higher high and is seen taking support at the trend line joining its recent lows indicating positive bias in price in the short term

• We believe the stock has concluded a healthy corrective phase and is likely to embark upon its next up move. We expect the stock to retest it’s all time high of | 453 in the coming month

Recommendation has been initiated on i-click to gain at 14:31 on November 23, 2016.

Retest its all time high @ 453 453

52 Weeks EMA

305

52 Weeks EMA

The stock in strong uptrend forming rising peak and rising trough on weekly chart and has recently rebounded from the major support level thus provides fresh entry opportunity to ride the next up move

Retest its all time high @ 269

• The share price of Dishman Pharma is in a strong uptrend forming higher peak and higher trough in weekly time frames. The stock has rallied to an unchartered territories during September 2016 after registering a breakout above the previous major high of 2008 (| 227) and 2015 (| 210). The sharp up move has seen the stock form an all time high of | 269 during end of September 2016 indicating an overall positive price structure

• The corrective decline in the last two months from

the high of | 269 has helped the stock price to work out the excess of the previous rally and discover a value area around | 220 levels based on the confluence of the 50% retracement of the previous major rally from | 170 to | 269 and the recent breakout area around | 210-220 levels. The sharp recovery from the support level indicates strength and offers fresh entry opportunity to ride the next up move

• We believe the stock has concluded a healthy

corrective phase and is likely to embark upon its next up move. We expect the stock to retest it’s all time high of | 269 in the coming month

Recommendation has been initiated on i-click to gain at 15:00 on November 23, 2016.

170

210

128

Weekly MACD (E-12/26/9) is taking support at its nine period’s average

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Strategy Follow up – November 2016 Date Scrip Product Strategy RP Target SL Gain/Loss % Comment27-Jul Mahindra CIE Cash Buy 178.00 215.00 165.00 9.00 Booked 50% profit at 194.0024-Aug Cipla Cash Buy 564.00 635.00 525.00 6.00 Booked profit at 595.0024-Aug Britannia Cash Buy 3380.00 3950.00 3085.00 -6.00 Exit at 316324-Aug Nestle India Cash Buy 6700.00 8090.00 6110.00 -9.00 Stoploss triggered26-Sep Alembic Pharma Cash Buy 672.00 785.00 623.00 -8.00 Stoploss triggered27-Sep Lupin Cash Buy 1495.00 1698.00 1395.00 -4.00 Exit at 143027-Sep Manglam Cement Cash Buy 338.00 395.00 306.00 8.00 Booked profit at 365.0027-Sep IgarshiMotors Cash Buy 775.00 860.00 730.00 7.00 Booked profit at 832.0025-Oct Symphony Cash Buy 1260.00 1510.00 1118.00 8.00 Booked profit at 136025-Oct Talwalkar Cash Buy 270.00 309.00 247.00 -9.00 Stoploss triggered26-Oct M&M Financial Cash Buy 370.00 415.00 345.00 -7.00 Stoploss triggered23-Nov Hindustan Zinc Cash Buy 252.00 290.00 233.00 8.00 Booked 50% profit at 271.00

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Forthcoming Economic Events Calendar Date EventIndia30-Nov Fiscal Deficit INR Crore/GDP YoY1-Dec Nikkei India PMI Mfg5-Dec Nikkei India PMI Services5-Dec Nikkei India PMI Composite7-Dec RBI Repurchase Rate/RBI Reverse repo rate12-Dec CPI/Industrial Production YoY14-Dec Wholesale Prices YoY30-Dec Fiscal Deficit INR CroreUS29-Nov GDP Annualized QoQ1-Dec Markit US Manufacturing PMI1-Dec Construction Spending MoM1-Dec ISM Manufacturing2-Dec Change in Nonfarm Payrolls5-Dec Markit US Services PMI5-Dec Markit US Composite PMI8-Dec Initial Jobless Claims14-Dec Retail Sales Advance MoM14-Dec FOMC Rate Decision (Upper/Lower Bound)15-Dec CPI MoM/YoY21-Dec Existing Home Sales MoM22-Dec GDP Annualized QoQ27-Dec Consumer Confidence Index29-Dec Initial Jobless Claims29-Dec Continuing ClaimsEurozone1-Dec Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI

2-Dec PPI MoM5-Dec Markit Eurozone Services PMI5-Dec Markit Eurozone Composite PMI14-Dec Industrial Production SA MoM21-Dec Consumer Confidence22-Dec ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin29-Dec M3 Money Supply YoYChina1-Dec Manufacturing PMI1-Dec Non-manufacturing PMI5-Dec Caixin China PMI Services5-Dec Caixin China PMI Composite13-Dec Industrial Production YoY13-Dec Retail Sales YoY27-Dec Industrial Profits YoY30-Dec BoP Current Account BalanceJapan1-Dec Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg8-Dec BoP Current Account Balance8-Dec GDP SA QoQ20-Dec BOJ Monetary Policy Statement27-Dec Natl CPI YoY28-Dec Industrial Production MoMUK1-Dec Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA1-Dec Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI5-Dec Markit/CIPS UK Services/Composite PMI15-Dec Bank of England Bank Rate22-Dec GDP QoQ

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NOTES:

• It is recommended to enter in a staggered manner within the prescribed range provided in the report

• Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report on closing basis.

• The recommendations are valid for three to six months and in case we intend to carry forward the

position, it will be communicated through separate mail. Trading Portfolio allocation

• It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical research products

• Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment

• Within each product segment it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation

• For example: The ‘Daily Calls’ product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to

allocate equal amount to each recommendation

Recommended product wise trading portfolio allocation

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Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected] ICICIdirect.com Technical & Derivative Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093 [email protected]

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Disclaimer ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Dagha, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee, Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures: ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a Sebi registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com. ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Dagha, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee, Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.