Identifying potentially commercially disruptive technologies · Identifying potentially...
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Identifying potentially commercially disruptive technologies Peter Evans [email protected] Senior Analyst
Transcript of Identifying potentially commercially disruptive technologies · Identifying potentially...
Identifying potentially commercially
disruptive technologies
Peter Evans
Senior Analyst
Need to identifying emerging technology
Current emerging tech work/new approach
• Benson CL, Magee CL (2015) Quantitative Determination of Technological
Improvement from Patent Data
• Carley SF, Newman NC, Porter AL, Garner JG (2017) A measure of staying
power: Is the persistence of emergent concepts more significantly influenced
by technical domain or scale?, Scientometrics
• Erdi P, Makovi K, Somogyvari Z, Tobochnik J, Volf P, Zalanyi L (2012)
“Prediction of emerging technologies based on analysis of the US patent
citation network” Scientometrics (2013)
• Daim T, Rueda G, Martin H, Gerdsri P (2005) “Forecasting emerging
technologies: Use of bibliometrics and patent analysis”
• Buchanan B, Corken R (2010) Disruptive technology: a toolkit,
The seven basic plots
• Overcoming the monster
• Rags to Riches
• The Quest
• Voyage and Return
• Comedy
• Tragedy
• Rebirth
Booker, C. (2004). The Seven Basic Plots: Why we tell stories. Continuum.
Our question
Can the patenting behaviour surrounding
historically ground breaking products be
used to identify ground breaking,
disruptive or emerging technologies?
The ground breaking products
Back stories
Clustering
Data Total patent applications/granted
Applicant type
Holdings
Existing/new applicants
Inventors
Family
Citations
IPC
Unclassifiable IPC
• Ground breaking
technology area
• Ground breaking
applicant
• 400 + variables
Next steps
1. Identify variables synonymous within the ground
breaking technology groups
2. Group patent data into technology groups and search for
patterns like those synonymous with ground breaking
technology groups
Data science
Provisional results
Ground breaking firms
vs
Ground breaking
technology area
Provisional results
High tech ground
breaking technology
area
vs
All other ground
breaking technology
areas
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Patent publications
Data coverage 1 Pre Publication
Application Growth
Data coverage
Data coverage
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
178
21
81
71
83
81
84
11
84
41
84
71
85
01
85
31
85
61
85
91
86
21
86
51
86
81
87
11
87
41
87
71
88
01
88
31
88
61
88
91
89
21
89
51
89
81
90
11
90
41
90
71
91
01
91
31
91
61
91
91
92
21
92
51
92
81
93
11
93
41
93
71
94
01
94
31
94
61
94
91
95
21
95
51
95
81
96
11
96
41
96
71
97
01
97
31
97
61
97
91
98
21
98
51
98
81
99
11
99
41
99
72
00
02
00
32
00
62
00
92
01
22
01
5
Patent publications and IPC
Publication count IPC count
Data coverage 2
IPC established by
the Strasbourg Agreement
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
178
21
81
71
83
81
84
11
84
41
84
71
85
01
85
31
85
61
85
91
86
21
86
51
86
81
87
11
87
41
87
71
88
01
88
31
88
61
88
91
89
21
89
51
89
81
90
11
90
41
90
71
91
01
91
31
91
61
91
91
92
21
92
51
92
81
93
11
93
41
93
71
94
01
94
31
94
61
94
91
95
21
95
51
95
81
96
11
96
41
96
71
97
01
97
31
97
61
97
91
98
21
98
51
98
81
99
11
99
41
99
72
00
02
00
32
00
62
00
92
01
22
01
5
Patent publications and citations
Publication count Citation count
Data coverage 3
European Patent
Convention
Online searching
Next steps
1. Identify variables synonymous with the ground breaking
technology groups
2. Group patent data into technology groups and search for
patterns like those synonymous with ground breaking
technology groups
