Idaho Small Business Conference Economic Overview€¦ · Idaho Small Business Conference Economic...

Idaho Small Business Conference

Economic OverviewSeptember 2, 2015

Overview

• National Economic Conditions

• Idaho Economic Conditions

Utah is One of the Fastest Growing

States in the CountryPercent Change in Population for States: 2012 to 2013

U.S. Rate = 0.7%

Source: U.S Census Bureau

Population Loss

NM

0.1%

UT

1.6%

AZ

1.2%

CA

0.9%

NV

1.3%

OR

0.8%

TX

1.5%

OK

0.9%

CO

1.5%

WA

1.1%

ID

1.0%

MT

1.0%

WY

1.0%

ND

3.1%

SD

1.3%

MN

0.8%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.3%

LA

0.5%

WI

0.3%

IL

0.1%IN

0.5%

OH

0.2%

FL

1.2%

TN 0.6%

KY 0.4%

MS

0.2%AL

0.3%

GA

0.8%

SC

1.1%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.9%

WV

-0.1%

PA

0.1%

NY

0.4%

ME

-0.01%

AK

0.7%

HI

1.0%

MA

0.7%

VT

0.1%

NH

0.1%

RI

0.1%

CT

0.1%

NJ

0.4%

DE

0.9%

MD

0.7%

MI

0.1%

.075% to 1.10%

0.5% to 0.9%

DC

2.1%

1.15% or more

0% to 0.4%

KS

0.3%

National Economic Conditions



U.S. Rate = 0.7%


Population Loss

NM

0.1%

UT

1.6%

AZ

1.2%

CA

0.9%

NV

1.3%

OR

0.8%

TX

1.5%

OK

0.9%

CO

1.5%

WA

1.1%

ID

1.0%

MT

1.0%

WY

1.0%

ND

3.1%

SD

1.3%

MN

0.8%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.3%

LA

0.5%

WI

0.3%

IL

0.1%IN

0.5%

OH

0.2%

FL

1.2%

TN 0.6%

KY 0.4%

MS

0.2%AL

0.3%

GA

0.8%

SC

1.1%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.9%

WV

-0.1%

PA

0.1%

NY

0.4%

ME

-0.01%

AK

0.7%

HI

1.0%

MA

0.7%

VT

0.1%

NH

0.1%

RI

0.1%

CT

0.1%

NJ

0.4%

DE

0.9%

MD

0.7%

MI

0.1%

.075% to 1.10%

0.5% to 0.9%

DC

2.1%

1.15% or more

0% to 0.4%

KS

0.3%

How long will interest rates stay so low?...

It’s up to the Fed

Consumption Drives Growth

-5%

0%

5%

2012 2013 2014

Fixed Investment

Inventories

Net Exports

Government

Personal Consumption

Co

ntr

ibu

tio

n t

o G

DP

Gro

wth

2015

Total GDP Growth

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

National Job Growth Improving

-900

-700

-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

8.7 Million Jobs Lost

11 Million

Jobs Recovered

Pa

yro

ll C

ha

ng

e 0

00

’s

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Unemployment Rates Dropping

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Utah Department of Workforce Services

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

5.3% in July

Consumer Confidence is Rising, but Not Robust

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

Fe

b 2

012

Au

g 2

01

2

Fe

b 2

013

Au

g 2

01

3

Fe

b 2

014

Au

g 2

01

4

Fe

b 2

015

Au

g 2

01

5

Source: U.S. CCI from The Conference Board

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Growth in Consumer Spending Remains Low

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

Personal Consumption Expenditure Yearly Percent Change

Inflation Remains Very Low

Source: U.S. CPI from National Bureau of Labor Statistics

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

Ju

l 2

011

Oct

20

11

Jan

201

2

Ap

r 2

01

2

Ju

l 2

012

Oct

20

12

Ja

n 2

01

3

Ap

r 2

01

3

Ju

l 2

013

Oct

20

13

Jan

201

4

Ap

r 2

01

4

Ju

l 2

014

Oct

20

14

Jan

201

5

Ap

r 2

01

5

Ju

l 2

015

US Dollar Compared to Chinese YuanInverted Scale

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis

$6.00

$6.50

$7.00

$7.50

$8.00

$8.50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

2001China joins WTO 2005

China allows

the yuanto rise

2008China

stops the yuan’s

rise

2010China allows

the yuanto rise

Aug 2015China

devalues the yuan

by largest

amount in 20 years

Source: Wall Street Journal

Oil Prices Rising But Still Below Long Term Trend$

Pe

r B

arr

el

$95

$38

$48

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Effective Fed Rate

30 Year Fixed Mortgage

CPI Year Over Change Rate - Unadjusted

30 Year Mortgage Rate, Fed Rate and CPI

Source: U.S. Federal Reserve and National Bureau of Labor Statistics

$0 $0 $0

Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec

4 moves

25 bps

2 moves

25 bps

Median FOMC Forecast

0.25%

1.875%

2015

Federal Funds Rate Outlook

Source: Source: American Bankers Association Analysis of Data from the Federal Reserve

0.625%

2016



U.S. Rate = 0.7%


Population Loss

NM

0.1%

UT

1.6%

AZ

1.2%

CA

0.9%

NV

1.3%

OR

0.8%

TX

1.5%

OK

0.9%

CO

1.5%

WA

1.1%

ID

1.0%

MT

1.0%

WY

1.0%

ND

3.1%

SD

1.3%

MN

0.8%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.3%

LA

0.5%

WI

0.3%

IL

0.1%IN

0.5%

OH

0.2%

FL

1.2%

TN 0.6%

KY 0.4%

MS

0.2%AL

0.3%

GA

0.8%

SC

1.1%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.9%

WV

-0.1%

PA

0.1%

NY

0.4%

ME

-0.01%

AK

0.7%

HI

1.0%

MA

0.7%

VT

0.1%

NH

0.1%

RI

0.1%

CT

0.1%

NJ

0.4%

DE

0.9%

MD

0.7%

MI

0.1%

.075% to 1.10%

0.5% to 0.9%

DC

2.1%

1.15% or more

0% to 0.4%

KS

0.3%

How long will interest rates stay so low?...

Emotion vsFundamentals



U.S. Rate = 0.7%


Population Loss

NM

0.1%

UT

1.6%

AZ

1.2%

CA

0.9%

NV

1.3%

OR

0.8%

TX

1.5%

OK

0.9%

CO

1.5%

WA

1.1%

ID

1.0%

MT

1.0%

WY

1.0%

ND

3.1%

SD

1.3%

MN

0.8%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.3%

LA

0.5%

WI

0.3%

IL

0.1%IN

0.5%

OH

0.2%

FL

1.2%

TN 0.6%

KY 0.4%

MS

0.2%AL

0.3%

GA

0.8%

SC

1.1%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.9%

WV

-0.1%

PA

0.1%

NY

0.4%

ME

-0.01%

AK

0.7%

HI

1.0%

MA

0.7%

VT

0.1%

NH

0.1%

RI

0.1%

CT

0.1%

NJ

0.4%

DE

0.9%

MD

0.7%

MI

0.1%

.075% to 1.10%

0.5% to 0.9%

DC

2.1%

1.15% or more

0% to 0.4%

KS

0.3%

Idaho Economic Conditions

Idaho Population 8th Fastest Growing in U.S.

Percent Change: 2013 to 2014U.S. Rate = 0.7%


Population Loss

0.7% to 0.9% (at or above U.S. rate)

0.4% to 0.6%

1.0% or more

0.0% to 0.3%

NM

-0.1%

UT

1.4%

AZ

1.5%

CA

1.0%

NV

1.7%

OR

1.1%

TX

1.7%

OK

0.6%

CO

1.6%

WA

1.3%

ID

1.3%

MT

0.9%

WY

0.2%

ND

2.2%

SD

0.9%

MN

0.6%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.3%

LA

0.4%

WI

0.3%

IL

-0.1%IN

0.4%

OH

0.2%

FL

1.5%

TN 0.8%

KY 0.3%

MS

0.1%AL

0.3%

GA

1.0%

SC

1.3%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.7%

WV

-0.2%

PA

0.0%

NY

0.3%

ME

0.1%

AK

-0.1%

HI

0.8%

MA

0.5%

VT

0.0%

NH

0.3%

RI

0.2%

CT

-0.1%

NJ

0.3%

DE

1.1%

MD

0.6%

MI

0.1%

DC

1.5%

KS

0.3%

Idaho PopulationGrowth Rates

By County2013 to 2014

State Average = 1.3%

Increase of 0.4% to 0.8%


Increase of 1.4% or Greater


Population Loss

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Jerome

0.9%

Jefferson

0.6%

Idaho

0.1%

Gooding

-0.2%

Gem

1.0%

Fremont

-0.3%

Franklin

1.3%

Elmore

-0.2%

Custer

-2.2%

Clearwater

-0.5%

Washington

0.7% Clark

0.7%

Valley

2.5%

Cassia

0.8%

Twin Falls

1.3%

Caribou

0.1%

Teton

0.4%Canyon

2.1%

Shoshone

-2.3%

Camas

0.0%

Power

-1.0%

Butte

-0.2%

Payette

1.1%

Boundary

1.0%

Owyhee

-0.6%

Bonneville

1.0%

Bonner

2.2%

Nez Perce

0.2%

Boise

1.2%

Minidoka

0.1%

Blaine

0.8%

Madison

1.2%

Bingham

-0.3%Lincoln

0.2%

Benewah

0.8%

Lewis

0.3%

Bear Lake

0.3%

Lemhi

0.0%

Bannock

0.0%

Latah

0.5%

Adams

0.8%

Kootenai

2.1%

Ada

2.3%

Oneida

-2.0%

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,0001

98

1

198

2

198

3

198

4

198

5

198

6

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population

11,317

9,389

1,634,464

Idaho Population and Components of Change

Source: Zions Bank analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data

To

tal

Po

pu

lati

on

Co

mp

on

en

ts o

f Po

pu

latio

n C

ha

ng

e

Idaho Employment at New Highs

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800 1

995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Th

ou

san

ds o

f Jo

bs

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Note: January 2015 (prediction)

Loss of 58,000 jobs

Gain of 78,000 jobs

Idaho Employment 8th Highest in the Country

Percent Change in Employment for States: July 2014 to July 2015U.S. Rate = 2.1%

Note: Seasonally Adjusted


NM

0.5%

UT

4.4%

AZ

2.1%

CA

3.2%

NV

3.7%

OR

3.2%

TX

2.3%

OK

0.6%

CO

2.0%

WA

3.3%

ID

2.7%

MT

0.7%

WY

0.2%

ND

-0.6%

SD

2.1%

MN

0.9%

NE

0.2%

KS

0.4%

IA

2.0%

MO

1.4%

AR

2.4%

LA

0.4%

WI

1.6%

IL

0.9%IN

2.1%

OH

1.1%

FL

3.5%

TN 1.9%

KY1.6%

MS

1.4%

AL

1.4%

GA

2.1%

SC

2.8%

NC 2.7%

VA

1.1%

WV

-2.5%

PA

1.1%

NY

1.8%

ME

0.7%

AK

0.0%

HI

1.2%

MA

2.0%

VT

1.5%

NH

1.2%

RI

1.3%

CT

1.8%

NJ

0.5%

DE

1.7%

MD

2.1%

MI

2.3%

DC

1.9%

0.7% and below

2.1% to 2.6% (at or above the U.S. rate)

1.3% to 2.0%

2.7% or more

0.8% to 1.2%

Top States for Employment GrowthJuly 2014 vs. July 2015


Top 10 July 2014 July 2015 Ranking

1. North Dakota 49th

2. Nevada 2nd

3. Utah 1st

4. Texas 11th

5. Colorado 18th

6. Florida 3rd

7. Delaware 25th

8. Oregon 6th

9. Arizona 13th

10. Washington 4th

31. Idaho 8th

Idaho Employment Gains and Losses

Source: Idaho Department of Labor, Total Nonfarm Seasonally Adjusted

Percent Change in Idaho Employment by Industry: July 2014 – July 2015

1.6%

0.0%

1.0%

2.4%

3.2%

5.6%

-1.1%

3.5%

3.4%

12.3%

-7.1%

-13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12%

Government

Other Services

Leisure & Hospitality

Ed. & Health Serv.

Prof. & Bus. Serv.

Financial Activity

Information

Trade, Trans., Utilities

Manufacturing

Construction

Ntl. Res. & MiningTotal: 3.1%

Idaho Industries Seeing GrowthTotal Change in Idaho Employment by Industry: July 2014 – July 2015

1,800

0

700

2,300

2,600

1,900

-100

4,600

2,100

4,700

-300

-1,500 -500 500 1,500 2,500 3,500 4,500 5,500

Government

Other Services

Leisure & Hospitality

Ed. & Health Serv.

Prof. & Bus. Serv.

Financial Activity

Information

Trade, Trans., Utilities

Manufacturing

Construction

Ntl. Res. & Mining

Total: 20,300

Source: Idaho Department of Labor, Total Nonfarm Seasonally Adjusted

Idaho EmploymentChange Rates

By CountyJuly 2014 toJuly 2015

State Rate = 2.7%

Source: Idaho Department of Labor, Seasonally Adjusted Total Employment

1.1% to 2.6%

0.0% to 1.0%

4.0% or more

2.7% to 3.9%

Below 0.0%

Jefferson

2.9%

Jerome

4.1%

Idaho

2.7%

Gooding

25.5%

Gem

2.6%

Fremont

3.7%

Franklin

-38.9%

Elmore

250.8%

Custer

-0.9%

Clearwater

0.6%

Washington

-0.6% Clark

8.4%

Valley

1.9%

Cassia

1.6%

Twin Falls

4.4%

Caribou

-2.1%

Teton

6.1%Canyon

2.0%

Shoshone

-0.8%

Camas

5.5%

Power

-0.2%

Butte

4.2%

Payette

2.3%

Boundary

5.1%

Owyhee

-9.3%

Bonneville

3.8%

Bonner

2.5%

Nez Perce

0.8%

Boise

3.8%

Minidoka

1.4%

Blaine

5.2%

Madison

2.8%

Bingham

-0.6%Lincoln

0.3%

Benewah

-0.7%

Lewis

0.9%

Bear Lake

1.0%

Lemhi

-58.3%

Bannock

2.3%

Latah

-1.8%

Adams

3.2%

Kootenai

4.7%

Ada

3.4%

Oneida

0.8%

Idaho Among the Lowest Unemployment Rates in the Country

July 2015 U.S. Rate = 5.3% NH

3.7%

NM

6.5%

UT

3.6%

AZ

6.1%

CA

6.2%

NV

6.8%

OR

5.9%

TX

4.2%

OK

4.5%

CO

4.3%

WA

5.3%

ID

4.1%

MT

4.0%

WY

4.1%

ND

3.0%

SD

3.8%

MN

4.0%

NE

2.7%

KS

4.6%

IA

3.8%

MO

5.8%

AR

5.6%

LA

6.2%

WI

4.6%

IL

5.8%IN

4.7%

OH

5.0%

FL

5.4%

TN 5.7%

KY5.2%

MS

6.5%AL

6.2%

GA

6.0%

SC

6.4%

NC 5.9%

VA

4.8%

WV

7.5%

PA

5.4%

NY

5.4%

ME

4.6%

AK

6.7%

HI

3.7%

MA

4.7%

VT

3.6%

RI

5.8%

CT

5.4%

NJ

5.9%

DE

4.7%

MD

5.3%

MI

5.5%

DC

6.8%

6.0% or more

4.0% to 4.6%

4.7% to 5.3% (at or below the U.S. rate)

3.9% or less

5.4% to 5.9%

Note: Seasonally Adjusted


Idaho vs. U.S.Unemployment Rates

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

U.S. Idaho

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Idaho Unemployment

RatesBy County

July 2015

State Rate = 4.1%

4.1% to 4.9%

5.0% to 5.9%

3.6% or lower

3.5% to 4.0%

6.0% or greater

Source: Idaho Department of Labor

Jerome

3.6%

Jefferson

3.6%

Idaho

6.4%

Gooding

3.3%

Gem

5.2%

Fremont

3.5%

Franklin

3.1%

Elmore

4.8%

Custer

6.8%

Clearwater

7.8%

Washington

5.0% Clark

3.7%

Valley

5.8%

Cassia

3.7%

Twin Falls

3.8%

Caribou

3.8%

Teton

3.7%Canyon

5.0%

Shoshone

7.6%

Camas

3.8%

Power

4.3%

Butte

5.0%

Payette

4.8%

Boundary

5.3%

Owyhee

3.4%

Bonneville

3.7%

Bonner

6.0%

Nez Perce

3.9%

Boise

5.6%

Minidoka

3.7%

Blaine

3.6%

Madison

3.3%

Bingham

4.2%Lincoln

4.5%

Benewah

7.3%

Lewis

4.3%

Bear Lake

4.6%

Lemhi

6.3%

Bannock

4.2%

Latah

4.2%

Adams

7.6%

Kootenai

4.9%

Ada

3.2%

Oneida

4.8%

Idaho Personal Income Growth 6th Highest in the Nation

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Census Bureau

Percent Change in Personal Income : 2013-2014State Average = 3.9% NH

4.5%

NM

4.6%

UT

4.6%

AZ

4.1%

CA

4.7%

NV

3.9%

OR

5.7%

TX

5.6%

OK

3.8%

CO

5.6 %

WA

5.3%

ID

5.3%

MT

4.0%

WY

4.0%

ND

5.6%

SD

1.7%

MN

3.2%

NE

0.5%

KS

2.9%

IA

1.3%

MO

2.7%

AR

3.1%

LA

3.2%

WI

3.4%

IL

2.4%IN

2.5%

OH

3.9%

FL

4.6%

TN 3.6%

KY4.4%

MS

1.3%AL

3.1%

GA

4.4%

SC

4.3%

NC 3.5%

VA

2.6%

WV

2.9%

PA

3.4%

NY

3.7%

ME

2.9%

AK

5.7%

HI

3.8%

MA

4.2%

VT

4.0%

RI

4.3%

CT

3.0%

NJ

3.0%

DE

3.6%

MD

3.3%

MI

4.0%

DC

3.6%

3.9% to 4.4% (at or above the state average)

3.1% to 3.8%

4.5% or more

2.1% to 3.0%

2.0% or less

Idaho Residential Construction Activity

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

198

0

198

5

199

0

199

5

200

0

200

5

201

0

Single-Family Units Multifamily

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and U.S. Census Bureau

Idaho Economic Indicators2014 - 2016

Source: Moody’s Analytics

4.6

0.8

8

3.8

2.3

1.3

4.4

2.9

7.4

3.8

3.4

1.4

3.3

6.6

5.3

4.8

2.6

1.3

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0

Gross State Product

Home Prices

Personal Income

Unemployment Rate

Nonfarm Employment

Population

2014 2015f 2016f

f = forecast

Robert Spendlove

Economic and Public Policy Officer

Email:

[email protected]

Phone: 801-560-5394

Presentations are offered for informational purposes only and should not be construed as tax, legal, financial or business advice. Please contact a professional about your specific needs and advice. Presentations may contain trademarks or trade names owned by parties who are not affiliated with Zions Bank. Use of such marks does not imply any sponsorship by or

affiliation with third parties, and Zions Bank does not claim any ownership of or make representations about products and services offered under or associated with such marks.

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