ICUC

Robot Cars and where they can take us

Brad Templeton

Chicken, Chicken

(& Foresight Institute)

bradt@eff.org

ICUC

Robocars are coming

• No longer Science Fiction

• A question of when, not if

• The overwhelming arguments for them

• Green, green, green, safe, safe, safe

• The implications for mass transit

ICUC

They're coming

– DARPA Grand Challenge #1: Total failure

– DARPA Grand Challenge #2: Five cars

– Urban Challenge – 3 winners

– Videos

– Autonomous, not centrally controlled

ICUC

Arguments For it

Death toll, Death toll, Death toll

And don’t forget the maiming!

Geeks can save the planet

ICUC

Accidents

• Kill 45,000 in USA, 1M worldwide, injure far more

• Cost 230 billion dollars (over 2% of GDP)

• Every year we delay, another million die.

ICUC

Congestion

• Congestion wastes 4 to 8 billion hours, 6 billion gallons

• Just timed lights improves city gas mileage 30%

• Hours spent driving -- 50 billion, 10% of total working hours, 5% of waking

ICUC

Infrastructure

• Parking

• Real Estate

• Environment -- 25% of greenhouse gasses

ICUC

Speed and Comfort

ICUC

Death toll

ICUC

Self Delivery

Almost as important as self-driving

ICUC

The RobotaxiAnd the WhistleCar

ICUC

Cell phone summoned

If what you need isn't close, something that is close takes you to it

ICUC

Right Vehicle

10-mile electric trike to pickup truck to van to SUV to bus

ICUC

Most common – the minicar

ICUC

ICUC

Private cars for hire

• Custom memory for your preferences

• Your box of stuff, robot loaded

ICUC

Parks itself, Charges or refuels itself

• Parks more effeciently, even in driveways

• Solves the battery problem

• Allows experimental fuels with vastly less infrastructure

ICUC

Special features

• Gentle acceleration, constant speed

• Gimbaled turns

• Super-soft suspension

ICUC

Compared to other forms

ICUC

Infrastructure already in place

(compare with PRT or other private ROWs)

ICUC

The private individuals pay for it

• No hugely expensive ROW needed

• Already more capacity than needed

ICUC

Almost every advantage transit has

…including one it doesn’t

actually have

ICUC

Greener

• Cars: 3500 btu/passenger-mile

• Bus: Also 3500. Trolleybus: 3200

• Light rail: 1500 to 7000

• Heavy Rail: 2200 to 6000. NYC: 3300

• Electric Car: 500-700

• Lightweight electric trike: 300

• Cyclist: 145. Beefeater - about 6,000.

• Pedestrian: 300. Beefeater - about 12,000

ICUC

ICUC

Light Rail Energy Use

ICUC

More advantages

• No parking

• No congestion

• Read/Work

• Don't need licence

• Don't need to own a car

• Cheap

• Safer from accidents

ICUC

Almost every advantage private cars have

ICUC

Roadmap to get there

ICUC

Drive by wire car

ICUC

Self parking car

Lexus LS460-L

ICUC

BMW 5 and 7Auto-spacing cruise control

Audi, Volvo S80 Lane change warningInfiniti Lane departure prevention

Mercedes Pre-Safe applies brakes before accident. Lexus pre-collision similar

ICUC

Robovalet Garage (Home garage 5' high)

Military use in parallel

ICUC

Accident-avoiding car

(somewhat negates death toll.)

ICUC

Special lanes

ICUC

School of Fish

ICUC

Deliverbot

ICUC

Whistlecar

ICUC

Autopilot w/ human oversight

ICUC

Allowed on regular streets

The lobbies…

ICUC

Robocar only lanes

ICUC

Robocar only streets

ICUC

Robocar only zones

ICUC

Sleeper cars

ICUC

Superlightweights

ICUC

Time for Apollo Project

• A major leader, somewhere, must declare the charge.

• Do it not because it’s easy but because it’s hard

• May well happen in Japan, India or China first

ICUC

All I have time for, but

• Barriers

• Downsides

• Engineering Changes

• Deliverbots

• http://www.templetons.com/brad/robocars/

ICUC

Barriers

• Law

• Fear

• Liability

• Terrorists

• Technology

• Software reliability

ICUC

Downsides

• Health• Restructuring of cities, less walking• People taking longer trips, empty trips• Computer Intrusion and Mass Failure• Reworking of car culture• Privacy• Freedom• Jobs

ICUC

Engineering Changes

• Range not a factor

• Acceleration and speed not a factor

• Comfort much more of a factor, soft ride.

• Want to be sharable

• Different safety constraints

• Small width, face-to-face

ICUC

Deliverbots

• In military, then on back streets

• No need to own expensive, rarely used goods

• Vast alteration of the nature of retail

• Also changes, airports, farms etc.