IBT Markets Outlook 20 January 2012

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January 19th, 2012 Published by: IBTimes 1 News from Our Partners FNAr ena Baltic Baloney The Overnight Report: Short Back And Sides? Outlook Improving For Base Metals Upward Pressure T o Remain On Brent Crude In 20 12 The Euro Rejoins The Risk Pack, But For How Long? Airview Retailing: Two Contrasting Tales From The Shopping Wars Forecasts: World Bank’s Gloomy Outlook Updates: Rio Bullish, Despite Weaker Economic Outlook Updates: Fortescue Lifts Sales China: Growth, Output Slowing, But Still Solid GOLD  Norilsk Nickel, W orld's Top Palladium Producer, Cutting Output Gold Prices Inch Lower after 2-Session Gain DJIA: Unemployment Applications Down, Kodak Files for Bankruptcy, BofA Re ports Q4 Profit Gold and Silver Post Gains DJIA: IMF Needs $600B, Goldman Sachs P rofit Falls 56%, Yahoo Co-Founder Quits Global Markets Overview US Markets Financial stocks led major indexes higher early Thursday afternoon as investors digested stronger bank earnings as well as a rush of U.S. economic data and a pair of well-received European bond auctions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 32 points, or 0.3%, to 12610 in early afternoon trade, setting up the blue- chip measure to close at what would be a six-month high. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index gained 6.6 points, or 0.5%, to 1315 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 22 points, or 0.8%, to 2791. Bank of America was  by far the blue-chip Dow's biggest gainer, rising 3.7% after the company reported fourth-quarter revenue that exceeded expectations. Credit-loss provisions and the net charge-off rate fell sharply from year-earlier levels. Morgan Stanley gained 5.4% and was one of the top  performers in the S&P 500 after the Wall Street firm reported a narrower-than-expected fourth-quarter loss and revenue that topped estimates. Leading a heavy calendar of U.S. economic data, the number of people seeking new unemployment benefits in the U.S. tumbled  by 50 ,000 last week to the lowest level since April 2008. Seasonal factors typical of this time of the year may have increased the figure's volatility, however, the Labor Department said. Stocks briefly lost some of their morning momentum after the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's January index of business activity showed a reading of 7.3. The figure undershot economists' forecasts, but it was still an improvement on December's reading of 6.8. F5 Networks Inc. posted the strongest gains in the S&P 500. The internet networking equ ipm ent maker 's fiscal first-quarter earnings rose 19% and the company also gave an upbeat earnings outlook. Shares were up 13%.

Transcript of IBT Markets Outlook 20 January 2012

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January 19th, 2012 Published by: IBTim

News from Our Partners

FNAr ena

Baltic Baloney

The Overnight Report: Short Back And Sides?Outlook Improving For Base Metals

Upward Pressure To Remain On Brent Crude In 2012

The Euro Rejoins The Risk Pack, But For How Long?

Airview

Retailing: Two Contrasting Tales From The Shopping

Wars

Forecasts: World Bank’s Gloomy Outlook 

Updates: Rio Bullish, Despite Weaker Economic Outlook 

Updates: Fortescue Lifts SalesChina: Growth, Output Slowing, But Still Solid

GOLD

 Norilsk Nickel, World's Top Palladium Producer, Cutting

Output

Gold Prices Inch Lower after 2-Session Gain

DJIA: Unemployment Applications Down, Kodak Files

for Bankruptcy, BofA Reports Q4 Profit

Gold and Silver Post Gains

DJIA: IMF Needs $600B, Goldman Sachs Profit Falls56%, Yahoo Co-Founder Quits

Global Markets Overview

US Markets

Financial stocks led major indexes higher early Thursd

afternoon as investors digested stronger bank earninas well as a rush of U.S. economic data and a pa

of well-received European bond auctions. The Do

Jones Industrial Average rose 32 points, or 0.3%,

12610 in early afternoon trade, setting up the blu

chip measure to close at what would be a six-mon

high. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index gain

6.6 points, or 0.5%, to 1315 and the Nasdaq Compos

rose 22 points, or 0.8%, to 2791. Bank of America w

 by far the blue-chip Dow's biggest gainer, rising 3.7

after the company reported fourth-quarter revenue th

exceeded expectations. Credit-loss provisions and tnet charge-off rate fell sharply from year-earlier leve

Morgan Stanley gained 5.4% and was one of the t

  performers in the S&P 500 after the Wall Street fir

reported a narrower-than-expected fourth-quarter lo

and revenue that topped estimates. Leading a hea

calendar of U.S. economic data, the number of peop

seeking new unemployment benefits in the U.S. tumbl

  by 50,000 last week to the lowest level since Ap

2008. Seasonal factors typical of this time of the ye

may have increased the figure's volatility, however, tLabor Department said. Stocks briefly lost some of the

morning momentum after the Federal Reserve Bank

Philadelphia's January index of business activity show

a reading of 7.3. The figure undershot economis

forecasts, but it was still an improvement on Decembe

reading of 6.8. F5 Networks Inc. posted the stronge

gains in the S&P 500. The internet networking equipme

maker 's fiscal first-quarter earnings rose 19% and t

company also gave an upbeat earnings outlook. Shar

were up 13%.

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European Markets

European stocks rose Thursday, with banks pacing the

advance, following solid earnings from U.S. peers and

solid Spanish and French debt auctions. The Stoxx

Europe 600 index ended up 1.2% at 256.57. The U.K.'s

FTSE 100 index closed up 0.7% at 5741.15, Germany's

DAX added 1% to 6416.26 and France's CAC-40 index

ended up 2% at 3328.94. Debt sales in Spain and

France Thursday spurred investor confidence, as theauctions showed firm demand, while borrowing costs fell

for both countries. The Spanish government exceeded

its target of auctioning between EUR3.5 billion and

EUR4.5 billion of debt. It raised EUR3 billion in its

first 10-year bond sale this year and also sold other 

maturities for a total auction sale of EUR6.6 billion. The

Spanish Ibex 35 index closed 2.2% higher at 8,603.80,

with Bankinter SA rising 6.7%, Banco de Sabadell SA

adding 5.5%, Banco Santander SA climbing 5% and

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA gaining 4.8%.

In France, the government sold close to EUR8 billion

of medium-term bonds, or BTANs, meeting its target

range of EUR6.5-EUR8 billion. Yields declined across

the board compared with recent auctions. Alstom SA

  jumped 13.7%, posting the biggest gain in the French

CAC-40, after reporting a third-quarter sales fall, but

an upbeat outlook. Shares of Carrefour SA fell 1.1%.

The French retailer reported a 0.8% drop in fourth-

quarter sales. Earnings reports from the U.S. and data

from the U.S. Labor Department further supported the

  positive mood Thursday, as did well-received fourth-quarter earnings from Bank of America and Morgan

Stanley. Investors were also looking for any progress in

talks between the Greek government and its private debt

holders. The parties appeared to be close to an agreement

on fresh proposals Thursday afternoon, according to the

Wall Street Journal. The Greek FTSE/ATHEX 20 index

  jumped 3.2% to 269.17, outperforming the rest of the

European stock markets. Among other banks, Banca

Popolare Di Milano SCARL surged 17.6%, closing at the

top of the Stoxx 600. Commerzbank AG jumped 14.8%

after it said it can meet the capital requirements of theEuropean Banking Authority without state aid. Deutsche

Bank AG rose 8.4%, Societe Generale SA jumped

13.2%, Credit Suisse Group AG advanced 6.8% and BNP

Paribas SA added 8.2%. In the U.K.,Barclays PLC was

up 10.1%, posting the biggest gain in the FTSE 100

index, followed by Lloyds Banking Group PLC, which

rose 9.1%, and Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC, up

8.9%.

Asian Markets

Most Asian markets pushed higher Thursday after t

International Monetary Fund unveiled a plan to boost

lending resources and the Chinese central bank mov

to ease liquidity in the money markets. Japan's Nikk

Stock Average rose 1.0% and South Korea's Kos

gained 1.2%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed 1.3

and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index gained 1.3%. T

gains came after the People's Bank of  China offerCNY183 billion in 14-day reverse repurchase agreemen

Thursday. The injection, coming amid tight liquidi

ahead of next week's Lunar New Year holidays, pull

short-term borrowing rates lower in Chinese interban

money markets. Chinese markets are closed for the who

of next week, while Hong Kong bourses are shut fro

Monday to Wednesday for the Lunar New Year holiday

Taiwan's markets, which were closed Thursday, will no

only reopen Jan. 30. Shares of chip makers march

higher in Asia after the Philadelphia Semiconduct

Index rallied 5% in the U.S. overnight. Shares of Hyn

Semiconductor rose 4.2% in Seoul, while Samsu

Electronics gained 4.1% despite news it faced a pate

suit from Eastman Kodak Co. In Tokyo, Elpida Memo

Inc. which is reportedly in talks for a tie-up with Micr

gained 5.3%, while Kyocera advanced 1.9%. Real-esta

shares were among the leaders in Hong Kong as we

as Shanghai, with some major names extending gai

from Wednesday's session after weak Chinese housi

data earlier in the week raised expectations for suppo

from the central bank. Shares of China Overseas Land Investment climbed 2.8% in Hong Kong and Poly Re

Estate Group jumped 5.4% in Shanghai. Among Hon

Kong developers, Hang Lung Properties soared 9.7

after reporting a 29% increase in its underlying profit f

the six months to Dec. 31. Many financial firms also sa

strong gains after better-than-expected quarterly resu

fromGoldman Sachs Group. In Japan, Nomura Holdin

added 4.3% and Daiwa Securities Group rose 4.9%.

CommoditiesBase metals closed higher on the London Met

Exchange Thursday, boosted by a stronger euro an

a more positive market tone following encouragi

economic data from the U.S. At the close, LME thre

month copper was slightly higher at $8,360 a metr

ton, having earlier hit a four-month high at $8,410/1

ton. Nickel lead the complex's gains, up 3.6%

$20,185/ton at the close of open outcry trading. Crud

oil futures turned lower Thursday after a report

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U.S. oil stockpiles suggested U.S. fuel demand remains

weak. Light, sweet crude oil for February delivery

settled 20 cents lower at $100.39 a barrel on the New

York Mercantile Exchange, down from highs above

$102 before the data were released. The U.S. Energy

Information Administration report showed a 3.4-million-

 barrel decline in U.S. oil inventories for the week ended

Jan. 13, which surprised analysts who had called for 

an increase. But a sharp decline in imports, combinedwith an increase in gasoline stocks and weak demand

for the fuel has painted a bleak picture of domestic

gasoline use. Gold futures ended slightly lower Thursday,

 pulling back after a two-session gain of nearly 2% as a

 bigger-than-expected decline in U.S. jobless claims and

news that consumer prices were unchanged in December 

dulled some safe-haven demand for the metal. Gold

futures for February delivery fell $5.40, or 0.3%, to end

at $1,654.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New

York Mercantile Exchange. They earlier traded as high as

$1,670.60 an ounce.

Australian Dollar Outlook 

The Australian Dollar has opened firmer against the

greenback trading back above USD1.0400 after seeing a

low of USD1.0368 overnight.

Australia: Disappointing jobs data trimmed gains and

weighed on earlier optimism in yesterday’s session

as figures showed the weakest Christmas seasonal

hiring in almost two decades. Total employment fell29.3% (seasonally adjusted) in December driven by a

very large fall in part time employment (-53.7k). The

unemployment rate remained steady 5.2%.

Today will see the release of local import and export

 prices for Q4 2011 at 11:30am. Market expectation is for 

+0.6% q/q for import prices and -2.0% q/q for export

 prices. Key data release for today will be the HSBCFlash

manufacturing MPI for  China for January at 1:30pm

(AEDT).

Majors: US stock s advanced for a third straight day

as positive corporate results, improved US jobs data

and successful Euro bond auctions buoyed markets. US

Jobless claims were down sharply to 325k, the lowest

since April 2008. The S&P 500 added 0.3% to 1312.42,

the Dow Jones added 0.2% to 12,597.49 while the

 Nasdaq added 0.7% to 2789.9. Euro debt worries eased

somewhat after a Spanish auction of 10 year bonds raised

more than the forecast 3 billion euros at a rate of 5.403%;

lower than the same bond auction in November last ye

The French bond auction was also successful overnigh

The FTSE 100 added 0.7% to 5,741.15 whilst the DA

added 1% to 6416.26. ECB president Draghi aga

cautionedovernight that “We see a softening busine

cycle in Europe with significant downside risk”. Offic

statements on the Eurozone economic outlook sa

the IMF is reported to expect a relatively shallo

recession in the euro zone.