IBT Markets Outlook 20 January 2012
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Transcript of IBT Markets Outlook 20 January 2012
8/3/2019 IBT Markets Outlook 20 January 2012
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/ibt-markets-outlook-20-january-2012 1/3
January 19th, 2012 Published by: IBTim
News from Our Partners
FNAr ena
Baltic Baloney
The Overnight Report: Short Back And Sides?Outlook Improving For Base Metals
Upward Pressure To Remain On Brent Crude In 2012
The Euro Rejoins The Risk Pack, But For How Long?
Airview
Retailing: Two Contrasting Tales From The Shopping
Wars
Forecasts: World Bank’s Gloomy Outlook
Updates: Rio Bullish, Despite Weaker Economic Outlook
Updates: Fortescue Lifts SalesChina: Growth, Output Slowing, But Still Solid
GOLD
Norilsk Nickel, World's Top Palladium Producer, Cutting
Output
Gold Prices Inch Lower after 2-Session Gain
DJIA: Unemployment Applications Down, Kodak Files
for Bankruptcy, BofA Reports Q4 Profit
Gold and Silver Post Gains
DJIA: IMF Needs $600B, Goldman Sachs Profit Falls56%, Yahoo Co-Founder Quits
Global Markets Overview
US Markets
Financial stocks led major indexes higher early Thursd
afternoon as investors digested stronger bank earninas well as a rush of U.S. economic data and a pa
of well-received European bond auctions. The Do
Jones Industrial Average rose 32 points, or 0.3%,
12610 in early afternoon trade, setting up the blu
chip measure to close at what would be a six-mon
high. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index gain
6.6 points, or 0.5%, to 1315 and the Nasdaq Compos
rose 22 points, or 0.8%, to 2791. Bank of America w
by far the blue-chip Dow's biggest gainer, rising 3.7
after the company reported fourth-quarter revenue th
exceeded expectations. Credit-loss provisions and tnet charge-off rate fell sharply from year-earlier leve
Morgan Stanley gained 5.4% and was one of the t
performers in the S&P 500 after the Wall Street fir
reported a narrower-than-expected fourth-quarter lo
and revenue that topped estimates. Leading a hea
calendar of U.S. economic data, the number of peop
seeking new unemployment benefits in the U.S. tumbl
by 50,000 last week to the lowest level since Ap
2008. Seasonal factors typical of this time of the ye
may have increased the figure's volatility, however, tLabor Department said. Stocks briefly lost some of the
morning momentum after the Federal Reserve Bank
Philadelphia's January index of business activity show
a reading of 7.3. The figure undershot economis
forecasts, but it was still an improvement on Decembe
reading of 6.8. F5 Networks Inc. posted the stronge
gains in the S&P 500. The internet networking equipme
maker 's fiscal first-quarter earnings rose 19% and t
company also gave an upbeat earnings outlook. Shar
were up 13%.
8/3/2019 IBT Markets Outlook 20 January 2012
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January 19th, 2012 Published by: IBTim
European Markets
European stocks rose Thursday, with banks pacing the
advance, following solid earnings from U.S. peers and
solid Spanish and French debt auctions. The Stoxx
Europe 600 index ended up 1.2% at 256.57. The U.K.'s
FTSE 100 index closed up 0.7% at 5741.15, Germany's
DAX added 1% to 6416.26 and France's CAC-40 index
ended up 2% at 3328.94. Debt sales in Spain and
France Thursday spurred investor confidence, as theauctions showed firm demand, while borrowing costs fell
for both countries. The Spanish government exceeded
its target of auctioning between EUR3.5 billion and
EUR4.5 billion of debt. It raised EUR3 billion in its
first 10-year bond sale this year and also sold other
maturities for a total auction sale of EUR6.6 billion. The
Spanish Ibex 35 index closed 2.2% higher at 8,603.80,
with Bankinter SA rising 6.7%, Banco de Sabadell SA
adding 5.5%, Banco Santander SA climbing 5% and
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA gaining 4.8%.
In France, the government sold close to EUR8 billion
of medium-term bonds, or BTANs, meeting its target
range of EUR6.5-EUR8 billion. Yields declined across
the board compared with recent auctions. Alstom SA
jumped 13.7%, posting the biggest gain in the French
CAC-40, after reporting a third-quarter sales fall, but
an upbeat outlook. Shares of Carrefour SA fell 1.1%.
The French retailer reported a 0.8% drop in fourth-
quarter sales. Earnings reports from the U.S. and data
from the U.S. Labor Department further supported the
positive mood Thursday, as did well-received fourth-quarter earnings from Bank of America and Morgan
Stanley. Investors were also looking for any progress in
talks between the Greek government and its private debt
holders. The parties appeared to be close to an agreement
on fresh proposals Thursday afternoon, according to the
Wall Street Journal. The Greek FTSE/ATHEX 20 index
jumped 3.2% to 269.17, outperforming the rest of the
European stock markets. Among other banks, Banca
Popolare Di Milano SCARL surged 17.6%, closing at the
top of the Stoxx 600. Commerzbank AG jumped 14.8%
after it said it can meet the capital requirements of theEuropean Banking Authority without state aid. Deutsche
Bank AG rose 8.4%, Societe Generale SA jumped
13.2%, Credit Suisse Group AG advanced 6.8% and BNP
Paribas SA added 8.2%. In the U.K.,Barclays PLC was
up 10.1%, posting the biggest gain in the FTSE 100
index, followed by Lloyds Banking Group PLC, which
rose 9.1%, and Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC, up
8.9%.
Asian Markets
Most Asian markets pushed higher Thursday after t
International Monetary Fund unveiled a plan to boost
lending resources and the Chinese central bank mov
to ease liquidity in the money markets. Japan's Nikk
Stock Average rose 1.0% and South Korea's Kos
gained 1.2%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed 1.3
and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index gained 1.3%. T
gains came after the People's Bank of China offerCNY183 billion in 14-day reverse repurchase agreemen
Thursday. The injection, coming amid tight liquidi
ahead of next week's Lunar New Year holidays, pull
short-term borrowing rates lower in Chinese interban
money markets. Chinese markets are closed for the who
of next week, while Hong Kong bourses are shut fro
Monday to Wednesday for the Lunar New Year holiday
Taiwan's markets, which were closed Thursday, will no
only reopen Jan. 30. Shares of chip makers march
higher in Asia after the Philadelphia Semiconduct
Index rallied 5% in the U.S. overnight. Shares of Hyn
Semiconductor rose 4.2% in Seoul, while Samsu
Electronics gained 4.1% despite news it faced a pate
suit from Eastman Kodak Co. In Tokyo, Elpida Memo
Inc. which is reportedly in talks for a tie-up with Micr
gained 5.3%, while Kyocera advanced 1.9%. Real-esta
shares were among the leaders in Hong Kong as we
as Shanghai, with some major names extending gai
from Wednesday's session after weak Chinese housi
data earlier in the week raised expectations for suppo
from the central bank. Shares of China Overseas Land Investment climbed 2.8% in Hong Kong and Poly Re
Estate Group jumped 5.4% in Shanghai. Among Hon
Kong developers, Hang Lung Properties soared 9.7
after reporting a 29% increase in its underlying profit f
the six months to Dec. 31. Many financial firms also sa
strong gains after better-than-expected quarterly resu
fromGoldman Sachs Group. In Japan, Nomura Holdin
added 4.3% and Daiwa Securities Group rose 4.9%.
CommoditiesBase metals closed higher on the London Met
Exchange Thursday, boosted by a stronger euro an
a more positive market tone following encouragi
economic data from the U.S. At the close, LME thre
month copper was slightly higher at $8,360 a metr
ton, having earlier hit a four-month high at $8,410/1
ton. Nickel lead the complex's gains, up 3.6%
$20,185/ton at the close of open outcry trading. Crud
oil futures turned lower Thursday after a report
8/3/2019 IBT Markets Outlook 20 January 2012
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January 19th, 2012 Published by: IBTim
U.S. oil stockpiles suggested U.S. fuel demand remains
weak. Light, sweet crude oil for February delivery
settled 20 cents lower at $100.39 a barrel on the New
York Mercantile Exchange, down from highs above
$102 before the data were released. The U.S. Energy
Information Administration report showed a 3.4-million-
barrel decline in U.S. oil inventories for the week ended
Jan. 13, which surprised analysts who had called for
an increase. But a sharp decline in imports, combinedwith an increase in gasoline stocks and weak demand
for the fuel has painted a bleak picture of domestic
gasoline use. Gold futures ended slightly lower Thursday,
pulling back after a two-session gain of nearly 2% as a
bigger-than-expected decline in U.S. jobless claims and
news that consumer prices were unchanged in December
dulled some safe-haven demand for the metal. Gold
futures for February delivery fell $5.40, or 0.3%, to end
at $1,654.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New
York Mercantile Exchange. They earlier traded as high as
$1,670.60 an ounce.
Australian Dollar Outlook
The Australian Dollar has opened firmer against the
greenback trading back above USD1.0400 after seeing a
low of USD1.0368 overnight.
Australia: Disappointing jobs data trimmed gains and
weighed on earlier optimism in yesterday’s session
as figures showed the weakest Christmas seasonal
hiring in almost two decades. Total employment fell29.3% (seasonally adjusted) in December driven by a
very large fall in part time employment (-53.7k). The
unemployment rate remained steady 5.2%.
Today will see the release of local import and export
prices for Q4 2011 at 11:30am. Market expectation is for
+0.6% q/q for import prices and -2.0% q/q for export
prices. Key data release for today will be the HSBCFlash
manufacturing MPI for China for January at 1:30pm
(AEDT).
Majors: US stock s advanced for a third straight day
as positive corporate results, improved US jobs data
and successful Euro bond auctions buoyed markets. US
Jobless claims were down sharply to 325k, the lowest
since April 2008. The S&P 500 added 0.3% to 1312.42,
the Dow Jones added 0.2% to 12,597.49 while the
Nasdaq added 0.7% to 2789.9. Euro debt worries eased
somewhat after a Spanish auction of 10 year bonds raised
more than the forecast 3 billion euros at a rate of 5.403%;
lower than the same bond auction in November last ye
The French bond auction was also successful overnigh
The FTSE 100 added 0.7% to 5,741.15 whilst the DA
added 1% to 6416.26. ECB president Draghi aga
cautionedovernight that “We see a softening busine
cycle in Europe with significant downside risk”. Offic
statements on the Eurozone economic outlook sa
the IMF is reported to expect a relatively shallo
recession in the euro zone.