Strategic roadmaps vs product roadmaps (ProductCamp Boston 2015)
IAM analysis of Asian - Joint Global Change Research Institute · 2020-01-12 · Development...
Transcript of IAM analysis of Asian - Joint Global Change Research Institute · 2020-01-12 · Development...
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IAM analysis of Asian climate Policy
Mikiko Kainuma*, Toshihiko MASUI**, Shinichiro Fujimori***
* Institute for Global Environmental Strategies** National Institute for Environmental Studies &
Tokyo Institute of Technology*** Kyoto University
Twelves Annual Meeting of the IAMCTsukuba, 2019
• Asian countries will update their mitigation target and roadmap to achieve the 2/1.5 degree target reflecting their issues to be solved and the resources to be endowed.
• Model can be a collaboration tool between science and decision making process. From the long‐term viewpoint, each country will need the capacities to develop model and scenarios by itself.
• AIM (Asia‐Pacific Integrated Model) has supported Asian countries to develop the integrated assessment model and their long‐term low carbon scenarios that support domestic as well as international policy making.
International Network of AIM (Asia‐Pacific Integrated Model)
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The 25th AIM International Workshop@NIES, Japan, Nov 18‐19, 2019
Brief History of AIM and its application
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Center for CC AdaptationAR6SAR TAR AR4 AR5 SR1.5SRES
Developmentof Sustainable
Low/Zero-CarbonSociety
EMF IAMC International model comparison
Eco-Asia
Japan mid target / INDC
MA
AIM/AirSnapshot tool & ExSS
AIM/Climate
AIM/CGE [Global]AIM/CGE [Japan]
Carbon tax policy assessemnt in Japan based on AIM/Enduse and CGE
Long-term GHG emissions scenarios IPCC SRES / RCPs / SSPs
AIM/Enduse [Japan] and application to Asian countriesAIM/Enduse [Global]
2007
2008
Impact assessment models
2018
FAR
UNEP/GEO
Long-term LCS
COP3 COP21COP8
NIES 4th 5-yr planNIES 3rd 5-yr planNIES 2nd 5-yr planNIES 1st 5-yr plan
2100
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
2050
2015
2016
2017
2009
2010
2020
2030
2040
1999
2000
2001
2002
2011
2012
2013
2014
2003
2004
2019
2005
2006
LLGHG&SLCP(‐FY2018)
Asia LCS Project(‐FY2013)
Long‐term strategiesStart of AIM
Project (FY1990‐)
AIM Workshop(FY1995‐)
AIM TrainingWS (FY1997‐)
COP Side Event(FY2005‐)
Japan LCS Project(‐FY2008)
SATREPS (‐FY2015)
JCM
Fukushima
LoCARNet
‐BOCMMRV
Low‐Carbon Vision
Japan UK JointProject (‐FY2007)
LCS‐RNet
Model World
Overview of AIM (Asia‐Pacific Integrated Model)
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Impact/Adaptation Model
Emission Model
【Country】
【Global】
【Enduse model】
【Economic model】
【Account model】
【sequentialdynamics】
【dynamicoptimization】
【Local/City】
Agriculture
Water
Human health
Simple Climate Model
Other Models
future society
Population Transportation Residential
GHG emissions
temperature
【Global】 【National/Local】
feedback
AIM/Impact[Policy]
AFOLU Stock‐flow
mid‐term target
IPCC/WG3
IPCC/WG2
IPCC/integrated scenario
carbon tax
long‐term vision
Life‐style adaptation
low carbon scenario
Mitigation Target, Climate Policy, Capacity building, ... Real World
Core research members
Application and development to actual LCS processes
Development and maintenance of study tools/models
Each country’s domestic/local research institute
Policy makers
Central/regional government
administration
Development Agencies
NGOs
Collaboration for developing LCS scenario and the roadmaps
Request of more practical, realistic roadmaps and also tractable tools for Low Carbon Development Strategies
Collaboration with Asian countries; Scenario approach towards Low Carbon Society in Asia
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Research activitiesCollaboration with stakeholders
http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS;https://lcs‐rnet.org/
AIM Research Project Team Approach towards LCS in Asia
India
China
Japan
Vietnam
Indonesia
Thailand
Bangladesh
Malaysia
Cambodia
Korea
Bhutan
Industry
Residential
Commercial
Passenger transport
Freight transport
Waste
Figure 1: GHG emissions by sectors
Low Carbon Society Blueprint for Iskandar Malaysia 2025
12 actions, 281 programs
Source: Low Carbon Society Blueprint for Iskandar Malaysia 2025, Summary for Policymakers (2nd Ed.), 2013, Ho Chin Siong, Yuzuru Matsuoka et al.
Green
Co
mmun
ityGreen
Environm
ent
Green
Econ
omy
Paris Agreement assessment for Global and Asian countries
Published in September 2017
• Assessment of 2030 emissions reduction targets by AIM/CGE global and nationalmodel
• Considering each country national policy• Led by individual national team members under AIM
umbrella
• China• India• Indonesia• Thailand• Vietnam• Japan• Global
China
Dai and Masui
Fujimori, Kainuma, Masui (eds), Post‐2020 Climate Action, Springer, 2017
Primary Energy Mix in 2030 Primary Energy MixIndia
Shukla, Mittal, Liu, Fujimori, Dai and Zhang
Thailand
Primary Energy Mix in 2030
Limmeechokchai, Chunark, Fujimori and Masui
Indonesia
Fujimori, Siagian, Hasegawa, Yuwono, Boer, Immanuel and Masui
Total primary energy supply
2oC target
NDCLow carbon options at the demand side
20172018
Carbon Management Volume 9, 2018 ‐ Issue 5
• Assessment of climate policies with 1.5 degree target
• Led by individual national team members under AIM umbrella and international collaborators
• China• India• Thailand• Japan• Korea• Nepal• Germany• Global
Assessment of pathways of the net zero GHG emission consistent with 1.5 degree target
NucPhaseOut NucPhaseOut
Energy system transformation analysis in power sector in Japan with AIM Enduse Model
• Dependence on VREs, such as solar and wind, as well as BECCS.
Oshiro, K., Kainuma, M., & Masui, T. (2017). Transformation of Japan’s energy system to attain net‐zero emission by 2050. Carbon management, 9(5), https://doi.org/10.1080/17583004.2017.1396842
Renewables
Wind|Offshore
Wind|Onshore
SolarBECCSHydroNuclearGas+CCSGas
Brief history of climate policy in Japan and AIM• 1997; Toward UNFCCC COP3, Japan technology model (AIM/Enduse) model was used to assess the
mitigation target in Japan. GHG mitigation target in Japan: ‐6% compared to 1990 level
• 2008; Based on three types of models (global technology model, Japan technology model and Japan economy model), options of Japan’s middle‐term target (2020 target) on GHG reduction were calculated. Role of model was to provide 6 options as GHG mitigation target. (Final decision was done by
policymakers.) GHG mitigation target in Japan: ‐15% compared to 2005 level (‐7% to 1990 level)
• 2009‐2011; By using Japan technology model and Japan economy model, the possibility of “25% reduction in 2020 compared to 1990 level” was assessed. Role of model was to show how to achieve the ‐25% target. Great East Japan Earthquake and Fukushima Dai‐ichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident in 2011• The new mitigation target in 2020 was decided to be “‐3.8% compared to 2005 (+3.1% to 1990 level)”
on November 15, 2013. Assumption: No nuclear power in 2020.
• As a Japan's mitigation target, "26% reduction compared with 2013 level in 2030" was endorsed by the Cabinet on July 17, 2015. Assumption: Share of nuclear power is 20‐22% in 2030.
• In 2016, Cabinet decided 80% reduction of GHG in 2050 compared with present level. • Since 2016, MOEJ started to discuss long‐term low carbon vision in Japan.• In July 2018, the 5th Strategic Energy Plan was approved by the Cabinet. • In June 2019, the long‐term strategy of Japan was approved by the Cabinet.
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Policy dialogue at Bangkok, 30 October, 2019
NIES
8th Annual Meeting of Low Carbon Asia Research Network in Beijing, 8 Nov, 2019
• AIM team has supported policy dialogues in Asia.
• At the meetings of LCS‐RNet in Rome and LoCARNet in Beijing, we discussed how to communicate with policy makers and other stakeholders.
11th Annual Meeting of Low Carbon Research Network in Rome, 17‐18 Oct, 2019
Workshop on carbon neutral development in Bhutan on May 17 & 18, 2018
Enduse training WS, hosted by MANIT (Bhopal), India 3‐7,Dec. 2018
Workshops and policy dialogue
• Thailand workshop will be followed by the workshops in Bhutan, Laos, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam in FY2019.
Limiting global warming to 1.5oC would require rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society (IPCC SR15)
GHG
emissions per capita
Developed Countries
High Energy Lock‐ins in Type Development
With high Damage on Economy and Natural System
Leapfrog‐development
Developing Countries
Time
How can we achieve transformation?
http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS
InterviewswithAuthorsofIPCCSpecialReports
“Thenext10yearsarekeytolimitthetemperatureincreaseto1.5°C”JimSkea,Co‐Chair,WorkingGroupIII,IPCC
“Financialpolicypromotinglow‐carboninvestmentiskey”Jean‐CharlesHourcade,LeadAuthorofChapter4,IPCCSR1.5
“Muchstrongercooperationisneeded”P.R.Shukla,Co‐Chair,WorkingGroupIII,IPCC
“Thereisareasonwhyseeminglyvacantlandisvacant”Yoshiki YAMAGATA,RevieweditorforChapter6oftheIPCCSRCCL
“ThesleepingGiantisbeginningtostir”HiroyukiENOMOTO,LeadAuthorofChapter1,IPCCSROOC
https://iges.or.jp/en/projects/ipcc
Thank you for your attention!
‐Mahatma GandhiYou must be the change you wish to see in the world.
http://lcs‐rnet.org/
http://www‐iam.nies.go.jp/aim/