This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for Research, TechnologicalDevelopment and Demostration under Grant Agreement No. 603458. This presentation reflects the views only of theauthors, and the European Union cannot be considered liable for any use that may be made of the informationcontained therein.

RISC-KIT: Resilience-IncreasingStrategies for Coasts – toolKIT

Ap van DongerenDeltares

www.risckit.eu

Coastal risk is increasing in Europe and beyond

• Coastal risk (prob. hazard * consequences) is increasing due to(IPCC, 2014)1. Increase in hazard intensity/frequency due to

• increased winds,• extremes in rainfall• sea level rise

2. Increase in consequences due to increased coastal development• Without adaptation, flood damage on European coasts increase up

to 11 billion Euros per year

• Increased risk means a re-evaluation of Disaster RiskReduction measures

But …• Where to invest? -> What are the hotspots?• How can we include coastal hazards?• What DRR measures work and why?• What are the socio-cultural and historic aspects ?• How can we quantify the effectiveness of DRR

measures?• Can a generic approach be applied across Europe, in

data-rich and data-starved environments?

Meeting, Venue, Date

Risk reduction and increased resilience

To the rescue: the RISC-KIT Toolkit1. Coastal Risk Assessment Framework(CRAF) to identify - at the regional scale(100’s km) - hot spot areas of coastal risk

2. Quantitative, high-resolution EarlyWarning and Decision Support System(EWS/DSS) to evaluate DRR measures inhotspots

3. Web-based management guide collectingand contrasting DRR measures;

4. Coastal Risk Database of present andhistoric socio-economic and physical data.

Application at 11 case study sites

•10 Locatedon all EUregional seas( )

•One site inBangladesh

• Diversity ofgeomorphicsettings

Paolo Ciavola, 14:05Xavier Bertin, 16:00

Jose Jimenez, 14:20

• 100 interviews in 11 sites with local stakeholders on socio-economic, cultural andhistorical perspectives and attitudes

• Collection of physical data of 100s of events in storm impact data base.• Review and analysis of current-practice coastal risk management plans and

lessons-learned of historical large-scale events

Historic data collection and DRR review

Historical storms fromarchives

Chronicle describing the construction of aseawall in 1872 )

Interviews inBangladesh

• Rapid assessment of hotspots of risk onthe regional scale of O(100) km

• Inputs:– Topo/bathymetry, grain size, water level and wave forcing

• Hazards:– Wave runup, inundation, coastal erosion

• Vulnerability and exposure (in Library):– Land use, buildings, population– social vulnerability, transport systems– critical infrastructure

• Hotspot selection– Using Multi-Criteria Analysis

Coastal Risk Assessment Framework

Hotspot analysis tools

Morphodynamic Model

• Quantitative, high-resolution models for useon hot spots

• To be used as Early Warning System but alsoas ex-ante DRR evaluation tool

• Based on Delft-FEWSbut now for coasts

• Results to be stored inBayesian Belief Network

• Details by Tom Bogaard at 11:00, this session

Example: Ria Formosa (Portugal)

Berlin, 16-19 june 2015

• Gulf of Cadiz (D3D surge and SWAN wave models)• Ria Formosa (D3D surge and SWAN wave models)• Praia de Faro (Xbeach morphodynamical model)

• Connects Local Hazard Indicators to Damage• Estimation of interventions can be

quantified.

Bayesian Belief Network

Development and evaluation of DRR measures

• Stakeholder interviews produced long list ofpotential DRR measures

• After prioritization, selected DRR measures will betested for effectiveness with hotspot models

• RISC-KIT tool kit contains• Regional-scale assessment of coastal risks• Evaluation of DRR measures in hotspots• Web-based management guide of potential DRR

measures and management practices• Coastal risk database of current and historic data

• Supports EU Flood Directive and UNISDR riskreduction goals

• All software is free-ware and/or open-source

Take home:

Expected impacts1. Faster attainment of the disaster risk reduction goals of UNISDR

(United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction).– Products geared to meet the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA)’s and

Post 2015 Framework on DRR

2. Design of cost-effective risk-reduction plans, based on theproposed tools and solutions.

– RISC-KIT tools of CRAF, EWS/DSS, database and management guidewill help coastal design.

3. Improve risk governance and preparedness through theprovision of timely information and warnings to decision-makers.

– Development of EWS/DSS tool for events.– CRAF and the scenario evaluation tool help decrease the ex-ante

coastal risk.

• Special sessions at conferences• Regional meetings• 2 policy briefs• Academic papers• 2 summer schools (Summer 2016)• Final conference in Brussels (2017)

• Visit RISCKIT.eu for details• Database at risckit.cloudapp.net/risckit/#/

Dissemination