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A Reality Check

Stephen Chen

VP, Global InSight LLC

September 2012

iCar

Outline

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a. Design

b. Easy to use

a. Drive-by-Wire

b. Autonomous Driving

c. Networked

d. Safe

i. Active (Pre-collision)

ii. Passive (Post-collision)

e. Premium priced but affordable ($25K-

$30K)?

i. Green isn’t cheap

ii. Serviceability

iii. Over the top services

Where would he start?

What would he like to have in it ?

What can he do given the current

state of automotive engineering?

Steve Jobs dreamed of building an iCar

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What is Apple’s brand promise?

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Is Apple good at what car buyers want?

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The challenges of designing and producing an

iCar are huge

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iPhone iCar

Lines of code < 10M > 100M

# Components 10K 100K

# Processors 3 > 100

# Sensors 3 > 100

# Displays 1-2 5-30

Development time 6-12 months 2-3 years

Testing time 3-6 months 1-2 years

Standards/ Regulatory

CE, FCC

SAE, CAN, LIN, FlexRay, CE, FCC,

ISO 26262, NHTSA, EPA

Many tools and processes are available for design

CAD/CAM

3-D Printing

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As well as for modeling and simulation

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Are cars becoming easier to drive?

Drive-by-Wire is an

enabling

technology

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Brake-by-wire

Steer-by-wire Throttle-by-

wire

Shift-by-wire

But there are still some issues

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Shift-by-wire

(late 1990s)

Throttle-by-wire

(late 1980s)

Brake-by-wire

(2015?)

Steer-by-wire

(2020?)

Sudden

Acceleration

(Audi, Toyota)

Where are we headed?

Autonomous

Driving

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Google

Stanford

CMU

Italy

DARPA Grand

Challenge Winners

Driving from Italy to China

http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/robotics-

software/autonomous-vehicle-driving-from-italy-to-china

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Parma, Italy to Shanghai, China (13,000 km)

3 months

Two vans in line, sharing navigation duties

Not unmanned (hitchhiker!)

Electric powered

Convoy of four vans, six support trucks

20 staff

The Google driverless car

http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/artificial-

intelligence/how-google-self-driving-car-works/

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Joint project with Stanford University

2010 - present

6 Toyota Prius, Audi TT, Lexus RX450h

Over 300,000 driverless miles logged

Accident

“Fender bender “when driven by human

Rear-ended while stopped at a traffic

light

Autonomous Vehicles Challenges

Public perceptions

1950’s autonomous concept cars

Who is the “ultimate driving

machine”?

Costs

Laser guidance System - $70,000

Safety

Liability

Regulatory

Nevada first state to license

autonomous vehicles

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1959 Cadillac Cyclone

1956 Firebird II

In-vehicle networking is complex

3-5 major buses

Multiple sub-

networks

30-100 micro-

controllers /

micro-processors

30-100 sensors

No redundancy,

multiple single

points of failure

Mission-critical

functions isolated

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Sensors are ubiquitous

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Challenges of automotive in-vehicle networks?

Multiple Time-triggered and Event-triggered protocols

(including 10G Ethernet)

Bus contention is an issue as more components are

added

EMI issues are difficult to solve

Research in underway in introducing gateways and

multiplexors to increase efficiency, security and

reliability

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Vehicle networking outside the car

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– Ann Arbor, MI

US DOT sponsored,

Umichigan TRI, Aug 2012-13

3000 vehicles – cars,

trucks, buses

Embedded, aftermarket, and

one-way communication

devices

Dozens of radio-equipped

traffic signals, 10 roadside

servers

50 OEMs, Tier 1, Tier 2

suppliers

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http://www.its.dot.gov/safety_pilot/index.htm

program objectives

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Security of V2V and V2I remains a challenge

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Multiple ITS Research Facilities

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The iCar must be safe

Active (Pre-collision)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCoKY_KjVvc

ABS, ESC

Tire pressure monitoring

Adaptive cruise control

Lane centering

Stop-and-Go

Rear camera

Blind spot camera

Parking assistance

Collision avoidance

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drgNmZ74eEc

Night vision

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Even if it crashes

Passive (Post-collision)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omsLbgKrISo

Lap/shoulder belts

Head restraints

Air bags (front, side, curtain, rear)

Laminated windshields

Safety cells

Anti-intrusion bars

Crumple zones

Collapsible steering column

Padded dashboards

Anti-submarine seats

Pedestrian protection system

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Green isn’t cheap

Regulatory requirements

MPG/CAFÉ

CO2 reduction

Toxic gas emissions

Safety (e.g. seatbelts, air bags,

rollover protection, abs, esc,..)

End-of-life (European Union)

Alternative powertrains

Hybrids

Start-stop

Electric Vehicles

Fuel cell

Natural gas

Sustainable materials

Recycled materials

Biomaterials

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Maintaining your iCar

• Real-time diagnostics

• Emergency/Roadside assistance

• Insurance telematics

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Finally, new services

Location aware

Advertising

Parking

Social networking

Points of interest

Health and wellness

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One-Touch Emergency Button

Two-Way Voice Communication with an

Emergency Response Specialist

Audible Alert Notifications

Always On

Automatic Time Adjustment

Illuminated Display

Rechargeable Battery

Base Station Charger - Illuminates to confirm the

device is docked and charging and can be used as

a night light.

Health and Wellness – Personal “OnStar”

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Glucose monitors attached to driver

Bluetooth connection to car

Navigate to clinic/hospital if blood sugar too low

Monitor pollen levels

Asthma, cold, cough

What is in the iCar app store?

Today

Mobile internet radio

Locate parked car and how to get there

Manage expiration dates

Record accident

Engine tuning

Manage gas usage

…

Tommorow?

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iCar App

iCar Management

iCar Radio Lite

iCar BlackBox

iCAR

iCar Care

Someday soon?

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