HYDROPOWER GENERATION IN MEXICO
description
Transcript of HYDROPOWER GENERATION IN MEXICO
HYDROPOWER GENERATIONIN MEXICO
Jose A. Raynal-Villasenor, Ph. D.
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Universidad de las Americas, Puebla
Outline of Presentation
•Characteristics of power production in Mexico•A comparison of characteristics of power production between Mexico and the US•Actual and forecasted power production in Mexico•Actual and forecasted energy production in Mexico•Actual and forecasted energy production costs in Mexico•The need for small, mini and micro hydropower production in Mexico•Conclusions
Characteristics of Power Production in Mexico
46%
22%
5%2%
3%
22%
Installed Power Capacity by Source in Mexico
(SE, 2010)
Petroleum
Hydropower
Coal
Geotermic
Wind
Nuclear
Petroleum (inde-pendent)
41%
14%7%
3%0%
3%
32%
Power Production by Source in Mexico (SE, 2010)
Petroleum
Hydropower
Coal
Geotermic
Wind
Nuclear
Petroleum (inde-pendent)
A Comparison of Characteristics of Power Production between
Mexico and the USA
24%
7%
45%
4%
20%
Power Production by Source in the USA
PetroleumHydropowerCoalOther RenewablesNuclear
Actual and Forecasted Power Production in Mexico
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Actual and Forecasted Power Production in Mexico (1999-
2030) (SE, 2010)
Years
Pow
er P
rodu
ctio
n (T
W)
Actual and Forecasted Energy Production in Mexico
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Actual and Forecasted Energy Production in Mexico (1999-
2030) (SE, 2010)
Years
Ene
rgy
Pro
duct
ion
(TW
-hr)
Actual and Forecasted Energy Production Costs in Mexico
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
Variation of the Cost of Energy in Mexico (1999-2010) (SE, 2010)
Years
Cost
($/K
w-h
r)
The Need for Small, Mini and Micro Hydropower
Production in Mexico
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
020,00040,00060,00080,000
100,000120,000140,000160,000
Petroleum and Diesel Con-sumption for Power Pro-
duction in Mexico (1999-2010) (SE, 2010)
PetroleumDiesel
Years
Con
sum
ptio
n (t
hous
ands
of
barr
els)
1999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920100
50,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000
Natural Gas Consumption for Power Production in Mexico
(1999-2010) (SE, 2010)
Years
Con
sum
ptio
n (m
illio
ns o
f f
t3)
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Oil Production in Mexico (1976-2010)
Years
Prod
ucti
on
(tho
usan
ds o
f ba
rrel
as p
er d
ay)
1895
1900
1910
1921
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
12.6 13.6 15.2 14.3 16.6 19.725.8
34.9
48.2
66.8
81.2
91.297.5
103.3
112.3
1.5
1.1
-0.5
1.7 1.8
2.7
3.13.4
3.2
2 2.1
1.6
1
Population Growth and Popu-lation Growth Rate in Mexico
(1895-2010)
Years
Popu
lati
on G
row
th (
mill
ions
of
peop
le)
Popu
lati
on G
row
th R
ate(
%)
Hydropower Plants ClassificationBy installed capacity:•Micro hydropower plants: less than 100 kW•Mini hydropower plants: less than 1 MW•Small hydropower plants: less than 30 MW•Conventional hydropower plants: bigger than 30 MW
By head:•Low head: 2-20 m•Medium head: 20-150 m•High head: more than 150 m
Main Watersheds of Mexico
Hydropower Potential Currently not in Use
Diagnosis of Small, Mini and Micro Hydropower Production
in MexicoThere are 34 small and mini hydropower plants with
total installed capacity of 109 MW and with energy production of 479 GW-hr per year.
There were 9 new small hydropower plants projects with a total installed capacity of 139 MW
The estimated potential for small hydropower production is of 3200 MW, just in the states of Chiapas, Veracruz, Tabasco and Puebla
An expected investment of 3 million of US dollars will be done in the period 2005-2015 in hydropower projects
• There is a need to double the power and energy production in the next 20 years in Mexico• The production of fossil fuels is rapidly declining in Mexico• There is almost 76% hydropower potential to be developed in Mexico• In the year 2011 the development of this area of opportunity is almost forgotten, even though there is a huge potential for development in this area
Conclusions
Thank your for your patience and
attention!