Hydrometeorological Hazards
description
Transcript of Hydrometeorological Hazards
Dr. B. LalljeeDirector
Consultancy & Contract Research CentreUniversity of Mauritius
Reduit, Mauritius
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Weather, water and climate-related hazards
Hail&LightningHail&Lightning
AvalanchesAvalanchesFlash floodsFlash floods
TornadoesTornadoes
Wildland firesWildland fires& haze& haze
Hot & cold spellsHot & cold spells
Heavy precipitationsHeavy precipitations(rain or snow)(rain or snow)
DroughtsDroughts
Storm surgesStorm surges
Storm (winds)Storm (winds)
FloodsFloods
Mud & landslidesMud & landslides
Ice StormsIce Storms
Tropical cyclonesTropical cyclones
Dust stormsDust storms
Sea level riseSea level rise
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Casualties during 2000-2009 were 78,000 per year, although there were over 200,000 casualties in 2010 alone.
Although number of people affected by natural events is increasing, the number of fatalities/deaths due to all natural disasters is decreasing.
Could be due to better early warning and preparedness programmes.
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Exacerbating Factors in AfricaLack of adequate human and institutional capacities
for weather and climate modeling and forecasting.Weak/ non-existence of national Disaster Risk
Reduction (DRR) and Disaster Management Systems.
Lack of community based weather and climate Early Warning Systems (EWS).
Poor institutional coordination.Lack of policy and legal framework on Disaster
Management to facilitate the co-ordination and implementation of disaster preparedness activities.
Poverty and low level of disaster resilience in many communities (making vulnerability very high).
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Climate Change A key driver of increasing hydrometeorological
disasters, especially global warming and sea level rise.
A challenge to humankind. Flooding is a global concern & increasing in its
intensity. It is forecasted that temperature increase of 3-4oC could result in displacement of nearly 330 million people only through flooding.
A 1 metre sea level rise would make at least 56 million people environmental refugees in the developing world.
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In 2100 : half of the world’s population will sufffer from water stress
Subtropical zones: Less precipitation and increased desertification
Tropical zones: Increased health risks
High latitudes: permafrost decrease
Coastal zones: coastal erosion; storm surges; salt water intrusions
Cost of global warming in 2050: 300 billion USD per year
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Natural Disasters in the World
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Water-related disasters
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
MIL
LIM
ET
RE
YEAR
Trend in Annual Rainfall Over Mauritius
ANNUAL RAINFALL
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Floods
Droughts
River flow
Present
Societal capacity
time
Extreme weather amplified by global warming will lead to frequent
disasters that will exceed societal capacity to mitigate and to adapt
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Trend in Tropical Cyclone Intensity during the last 30 years
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1975-85 1985-95 1995-2005
Decades
No
. of
form
ati
on
s
Moderate
Severe
T.Cyclone
Linear (T.Cyclone)
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Global Temperature
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Sea level in Rodrigues (Mauritius)
Y early Mean Sea Level Difference from Normal at Rodrigues (1987-2005)
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Year
Dif
f fr
om
no
rm
al
( cm
)
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Vulnerability Factors to Flooding≈ Poor/ inadequate and constricted drainage systems.
≈ Blockage of drains by solid wastes in urban areas.
≈ Uncontrolled logging, deforestation, soil erosion & silting of river beds.
≈ Removal of sand, gravel and boulders from river beds for supporting construction industry.
≈ Small river catchment area.
≈ Steep terrain conditions.
≈ Low lying coastal areas.
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Key functional components of Early Warning Systems for hydrometeorological hazards- Risk Assessment, including hazard
assessment and vulnerability analysis- Hazard Detection- Hazard Prediction- Communications and Dissemination- Public Awareness- Coordination- Post-Disaster Support
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Disaster management cycle
MitigationRecovery
ResponsePreparedness
Disaster
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Framework for guidance and monitoring of disaster reduction
Risk identification
Knowledge management
Risk management applications
Preparedness and emergency management
Governance support
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Risk identificationMonitoring
Early warning for weather-, water- or
climate- related disasters
Adaptation measures
Vulnerability assessment and Hazard
analysis
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Need further improvements in the prediction of high-impact weather and in the full utilization of forecast information
Need user education and awareness :
to increase weather literacy and interest in meteorological topics
to ensure that warnings and forecasts provided by the authorities are understood by the intended users
to build up a high level of awareness of hazards and preparedness
to enable emergency management authorities to make well-informed decisions.
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Risk management applicationsExamples include :
The Associated Programme on Flood Management -
promotes the concept of Integrated Flood
Management across sectors.
WMO’s Agricultural Meteorology Programme -
provides guidance on the development of support
systems for sustainable land management and agro-
climatic zoning.
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Timely and accurate forecasts and warnings of natural hazards coupled with adequate local preparedness planning are fundamental requirements for disaster reduction.
Optimal response to natural disasters requires effective coordination and cooperation between responsible agencies, institutions, officials, the media, political leaders and other players at local, national and international levels.
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Legislation and adequate normative framework are essential to implement risk management.
Political commitment is crucial to allocate the necessary resources.
Contributions of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services need to be integrated in national disaster management plans.
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Natural disasters affect all countries, but burden falls disproportionately on developing countries.
Support to natural disaster reduction is both an issue of sustainable development and a matter of environmental justice requiring international solidarity.
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Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Strategies for African CountriesAfrica is highly vulnerable to extreme hydro-
meteorological events, and climate related disasters will continue to impact on African economies and societies.
Understanding climate risks and their causes is important in dealing with climate extreme events and disasters.
Downscaling climate information to local levels is critical in dealing with DRR.
Development of an effective EWS will improve DRR.Urgent need for the development and strengthening of
flood and drought EWS.24
Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Strategies for African Countries contd
Sensitise Governments to develop appropriate policy frameworks.
Enhance dissemination and communication for an informed decision making and support.
Enhance public education and awareness including institutional capacity building.
Develop knowledge and share it with relevant institutions. Strengthen Early Warning Systems for monitoring, detection,
attribution and prediction of high impact weather, climate events and climate change.
Prioritize hazards and their mappings.Conduct vulnerability analysis and mapping.Improve accuracy and use of climate and weather
information.Adopt a bottoms-up, community-based approach to DRR
through community sensitization, education and involvement at all stages : from risk mapping and assessment, disaster preparedness, response and recovery stages.
Adopt a multi-hazard approach to DRR. 25
Project HD 02: Hydrometeorological Hazards and Disasters in sub-Saharan Africa: Vulnerability and Resilience
ObjectivesThe objective of this project is to assess the
vulnerability of socio-ecological systems in sub-Saharan Africa to hydro-meteorological hazards and disasters, and the resilience of communities to these
events. The project also aims at strengthening the capacities of developing countries for disaster
planning and management, and for promoting and facilitating transfer of early warning technologies to
disaster-prone communities.
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1. Drought events in sub-Saharan AfricaActivities Investigating the impacts of climate change and droughts in the Sahel, including the effect on�agriculture, water resources, air quality, cattle production, ecosystems, and health Set up a long-term warning and monitoring system for climate change, drought and�desertification Develop human and institutional capacity building initiatives at the country and regional levels� Design of advanced early warning and monitoring systems for environmental changes and�agricultural production Strengthening networks of research scientists� Implementation of research protocol at the farm level, with the involvement of the beneficiary�community Involvement of the public and private sectors in the research activities, and communication of�information to all stakeholders, including the practical tools needed to enhance decisionmakingcapability.Expected outcomes Enhancement of scientific knowledge on impacts of climate change and droughts on the Sahel� Accurate and complete hydrologic, agro-meteorological, climatic, and environmental data sets�for future reference in monitoring the evolution of the impact of climate change. Enhanced human and institutional capacity for research� Established strategies for adaptation to drought in the region, particularly with regard to�agricultural production techniques (e.g. farmers’ practical guides) Established monitoring and early warning technologies and strategies� Improved public awareness of the risks of droughts as influence by human activity and climate�change
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Sub projects 3. Climate change and socio-economic
determinants for anthropogenic fires inAfrican savannahs4. Dust events and related hazards in
sub-Saharan Africa Activities5. Physical and socio-economic
approaches for supporting adaptive watermanagement in sub-Saharan Africa
(incomplete)
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Next Steps3 years have elapsed since the formulation of
these projectsChange in paradignms and priorities in certain
sectorsRio +20 conference in Brazil has laid emphasis
on Green economy and Sustainable Development framework.
Need to revisit the subprojects in terms of objectives and outcomes
Need to reformulate the budgetNeed to complete the subproject on Water
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Conclusion Climate change, the largest environmental change in this
century is likely to intensify hydro-meteorological hazards
and lead to large-scale population movements/ eco-
migration.
Climate change is a human–induced phenomenon. Much
of the issues are intricately linked to social and human
dimensions and the solution to these problems therefore
lies in the social and human dynamics/ action.
No single set of approach can provide solution to the ill
effects of climate change. A mix of technical, behavioral
and policy approaches is needed in minimising the effects
of natural hazards. 30
Conclusion contd.An Integrated Approach is Needed at :
National and regional levels - Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services Cooperation across disciplines and agencies Links with academic community.
International level - Between IGOs and NGOs concerned Capacity building and transfer of technology activities. 31
Dry reservoir
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Drought
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Flood
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Sunamis
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Sunamis
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