Hydrologic Estimationd in Nepal by KP Sharma & NR Adhikari
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3 LOW-FLOW
Low-flowstatisticsare essential n water supply planning to determineallowablewater ransfersand withdrawals. Other applicationsof low-flows include waterqualitymanagementapplications, determination of minimum downstream releaserequirementsrom water resources rojectsetc.
A method for assessingow-flow characteristicsor l-day,7-day,30-day,and monthly duration was developed by the Department of Hydrology andMeteorology and Water and Energy Commission Secretariate in 1980s(WECS/DHM, 1990) published in 1990 as a report titled 'Methodologies
forEstimating ydrologic Characteristics f UngaugedLocations n Nepal.' This westhe irst attempt n Nepal for assessingow-flows of different recurrence ntervals.Thestudyuseddata for 44 stationswith a period covering the period from 1963to1985. hepresentstudy is an updateof the 1990study to include: additionaldataup o 1995,additional stations, and improved physiographic and hlpsometric dataderived rom GIS tools. The study used data from 309 precipitation-gauglngstationsFigure1.3) and51 hydrometricstations Figure 1.4).
3.1 Low-FlowCharacferisfics
Significantdecrease n low-flow on a stream leads to drought, reduction inreservoirevels,depletion in soil moisture, &d depletion of groundwater evels.
Suchconditions lead to scarcity in drinking water, ffid decline in agricultureproductionwittr high consequences on economy and social developmentsincluding uman miseries. Estimation of low-flow status on a river is important
for designing single purposeor multipurpose water resourcesproject considering
exteme onditions egarding the availability of adequatewater supply.
Rivers ure mainly recharged by groundwater during minimum flow
periods. ence, he flow pattern is highly influenced by the hydrology of a riverbasin. ecause f the drawdown of upper aquifers, a river is recharged from deep
aquifers ith lesswater storageduring extremely dry years.A potential frequency
distribution f low-flow series must, hence, be able to take such deviation into
acc0unt.
In a region affected by continental monsoons, winter and spring seasons
ue usuallydry causing the minimum flow occurring generally in spring season.
Theperiod s also highly dependent on the ice and snowmelt situation in the
headwater reas. Due to snowmelt in snow-fed rivers, lowest flow conditiongenerally ccurs earlier than in the rivers lacking snowmelt contribution to the
river lows Figure1.7).
As in the case of floodflow estimates, the assessmentof low-flow
dischargesn a river at any location primarily dependson three cases: adequate
data"nadequate ata and missing data. The well-known method of hydrological
analogys an appropriate tool in the case of inadequate hydrometric data. The
scopef thismethodmay be wider in respect of the estimation of low flows.
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3.2 LiteratureReview
Compared o flood-flow studies, iterature on low-flow studies s limited. One ofthe earlierstudieson low fl ows by Riggs(1972)discusseshe natureof low-flowfrequencycurvespresentinga multiple regressionapproach n regionalization.Afew regional studieson low flows found in recent iterature nclude the Low-Flow'
Studies n the UK (IH, 1980), n Russia (Artemieva, 1997) and in South Africa(Smakhtin and Hughes, L997). Multivariate relationship of low flows to ciimatic
and basin characteristics re he basicapproachapplied n most of thesestudies o
developmethodologiesor ungauged asins.A methoddeveioped n 1982by SirMacDonald and Partners titled 'Medium lrrigation Project Design Manual' isbasedon the data of a single streamflow measurement uring a dry period to ger
long-termcharacteristicsf minimum flows (MacDonald1990).
A catchmentarea acts as a reservoir for precipitation.Hence a catchment
area s usually consideredas a universal parameterwhile computing low flows.
Besides the catchment area, other parametershave also been considered n the
regressionanalysis or arriving at the best equation or predicting low-fiow. Thepatternof equationconsidered n this study has he following iorm:
Iow-flow sminimum.
Liteliterature sT)p. II Idistrihurionprobability
Fouloula-G
Distr i:rrtiotn tnrs stuboundedat tl
Theprogram LOCanada. ThExtreme Valtpresentedn l
Q,=axix{ x1'--......,
whereQr : T- yearminimum flow
Xr, X:, X: : lndependent ariables nfluencing ow flows
&d,p,T... . regression oefficients
( J . I ]
3.3 Low-FIow Derivation
Daily dischargedataavailable at DHM were the sourceof data for the derivationof low-flow values for different durations. An EXCEL based macro was
developed to extract l-day minimum, 7-day minimum, 30-day minimum andmonthly minimum flows. The macro producedoutput in a format, which could
directly be used as nput for the low-flow frequencyanalysis.
One-day low-flow computed by the macro is the lowest value obtainedfrom eachyear'sdaily streamflow data.Seven-dayow-flow is the minimum value
obtained from the consecutive seven-day averages. The procedure used tocalculation 30-day ow-flow was similar to theprocedureused n 7-day low-flowcomputation.Monthly minimum flow is the minimum value obtained from the
seriesof twelve monthly values.One-day,7-day,30-day,and monthly minimumvalueswereobtained for eachyeardevelopinga series or eachduration..
3.4 Low-FIowFrequencyAnalysis
Estimation of low-flows from stream low records s generally done by fitting aprobability distribution to the annuai minirnurn average ou.,-flou''series"Tlrricai
J V
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low-flowseriesconsidered n this study are: l-day, 7-day,30-day and monthlyminimum.
Literatureon low-flow frequencyanalysis s relatively sparse. Availableliterature hows that the three-parameterWeibull Distribution, the Log PearsonType III distribution, and two-parameter and three-parameter Lognormaldistribution re the widely useddistributions n severalpartsof the world for theprobability istribution analysis of low flows (Riggs, 1982; Stedinger,Vogel &Foufoula-Georgiou,992). The Extreme Value Type III distribution (Weibull
Distribution) sed n most of the regionsof the world, was selected or applicationin this study. This distribution is particularly suitable for discharge values
boundedt he ower end such as he casesof ephemeral ivers.
The low-flow frequency analysis was carried out using a computerprogram OFLOW developed by the Inland Water Directorate of Environment
Canada. he program computes low-flow values for a given duration using
Extreme alue Type III distribution. The resultsof the run for all the stationsarepresentedn Table3.1 for different durations.
J r
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7-DAY 2.YEARLOW-FLOW
@
caE
3o
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ootC)
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q
Q o
95 % Cl
95 % Pl
'100 200
SquareRoot Area km2)below5000m]
-Year7 -daYow-flow'
ir 7-daYow-flow'
2O-YEAR OW-FLOW
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oot e
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- - 9 5 % P l
SquareRoot Area km2)below5000m]
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u)
(.,q)o)(g
oU'
l -
l c )
l oI ( )
1-daY 0-Yearow-Flow
1 0
Actual ischargem3/s)
Figure3.3.Plotofactualvscomputeddischarge:1-dayl0-yearylow-f low
7-daY10-Year ow'Flow
Figure3.4.Plotactualvscornputeddischarge:1.dayl0.yearlowflowi
al +
1 00
3.5 Resu
The correlati
significantlY
SimilarlY, th
hypsometric
areasbelow
by the Poorthe regional
aprlied for tthe reiations
and ungaug
for theseregi
Anall
multiPle reg
elevation an
improvemen
5000 m, ho
ease, onlY
recommend
frequencies
comPutatio
Present the
low flows r
periodT
T
presentmultiPlenumber(3.2) fo
resPecti
I
f
- t ,
' '--\I
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3.5 Resulfsand Dfscussion
The correlation matrix (Annexure III) shows that the low-flow values are
significantlycorrelated with basin area, basin perimeter, and river length.
Similarly, the minimum flows are also significantly related to different
hypsometricnd land-useareas.Correlationmatrices also indicate that the basin
areaselow 5000 m are the most influencingarea or the low-flows. As indicated
by thepoor correlation between he low-flow and the geographicalcoordinates,
the egional spect s consideredess significant so that the sameequationmay be
appliedor the whole country. Caution should,however,be taken while applyng
the elationshipor an ungauged ocation above 1800 m in high mountain areas
andungaugedocations on streamsoriginating in the Siwalik or Terai as no data
for heseegionswere available or developing egressionequations.
Anaiysisof multiple regressionshowed hat the relationship based on the
multipleegression f areabelow 5000 m or 3000 m combinedwith averagebasin
elevation nd averagebasin slopeyieldedbest results avoiding co-linearities.The
improvementn goodnessof fi t by including additionalparametersn area below
5000m, howeverwas marginal. Consideringthe applicability of equation with
ease, nly the relationship of low-flow with area below 5000 m have been
recommendedor the estimation of low-flows for different durations and
frequencies. he following equation (Equation 3.2) may be used for thecomputationf low flows at an ungauged ocation. Figure 3.1 and Figure 3.2
presenthe best-fit plot presenting he sample of 7-day Z-year and 7-day Z}-year
low lows espectively.
W =Co., Fo.rJ-* , (3.2)
where,Qd,,: Discharge m3/s;
d: duration day)
T: Returnperiod (year)
Co.r: Constantcoefficient for a duration d andreturnperiod T
Fa,r : Coef. of independentvariable for duration d and return
periodT
A.5r: Area of the basinbelow 5000m
The values of C and F for different return periods and duration are
presentedn Table 3.2. The table also includes the statistics obtained from the
multiple egression nalysis of the data.Figure 3.3 and Figure 3.4 compares he
numbersbtained rom actualvalues with the numberscomputed from Equation
(3.2) or the two samplecasesof l-day lO-year and 7-day Z-year low flows
respectively.nnexure presents n exampleof the computation.
35
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Table 3.2. Table for low-f l est imatit, Laote Ior tow-Ilow esLtmatton equauons
ReturnPeriod Day
Const.
C a r
Goef.
Farstd.Error f
2 1 0.2144 0.081t 0.0033 0.9257 0.2362 0.083c 0.0033 0.929
30 0.302€ 0.0854 0.0031 0.938[/onthly 0.339i 0.086c 0.003c 0.94C
1 0 1 0.085s 0.0729 0.0032 0.915
0.0920 0.0748 t.oogr 0.921
3C 0.1807 0.076€ 0.003c 0.93C
Monthly 0.2138 0.0777 0.0031 0.94C
201 0.0698 0.0703 0.0031 0.912
0.0662 0.0726 0.0031 0.91€
30 0.160€ 0.0742 0.003c 0.927
[/onthlv 0 .1 94 t 0.0754 0.0031 0.929
36
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5 CONCLUSIONSANIDRECOMMENDATIONS
Themethods or hydrologicalestimations t ungaugedocations n Nepal, suggested
in this eport,are he updates f the eariiersimilar studies WECSIDHM, 1990).The
updates se meteoroiogicaland hydroiogical data up 1995. Besides, he updateddatabasentegrated n a GIS systemwas the sourceof land-use,physiographic,and
hypsometric ata used n this study.
The mathematical ormulations developed or different hydrological designs
arebasedon easily derived basin and climatic information. Designerswith iimited
hydrological xpertise can use these methods.Drainage areaof the ungaugedbasin
below 000m is the only parameter equired or flood flow estimation.Similarly, low
flowsareestimatedon the basisof the drainageareabelow 5000 m. Average annual
hydrograph t an ungauged location is computed using. average basin elevation,
averagennuaiprecipitationand basin areabeiow 3000m. Flow-duration curve for an
hngaugedocation uses he samevariableas n averageannualhydrographbesides he
b.asinrea elow 5000 m.i
Aithough Nepal can be divided into three distinct physiographic zones,
nameiy he High Himalayas,Middle Mountains, and the Terai, attempts to derive
regional atternof the hydrological characteristics ver Nepal were not successful
primarilybecauseof the unavailability of representative nformation covering the
whole egion. The existing hydrometric network in Nepal covers only the Middle
Mountainegionwithin the eievation one rom 140m to 1800m abovesea evel.
Since the developedmethodologies are based on limited information and
averagedonditions, hey should be used only for the hydrological investigationsat
reconnaissancer pre-feasiblyevels.Estimated aluesshouldbe udged properlyon
thebasis f hydrological reasoning or the best results.The following precautionsare
particulariymportantwhile applyrng he methods.
. Reliability of the methodswill be low in the high Himalayan region
whereno regular hydrometryexists.Besides, he hydrology of the high
Himalayan region needs o address he complexprocessof snow and
glacier,which is not yet properlyassessed.
. The methodswill need special udgment in the Terai region where the
flows are highly influencedby surfacewater-Groundwater nteractions
and human impacts. In addition, the nature of floods in Terai is
different fronn /alleyfloods n the mountainousareas.The Terai fioods
aremore staticcompared o floods n themcuntainous ivers.
. Since the drainage areasused in this study ranged from 17 kmz54000 km2, precautionshould be taken in applying the methods
river basinssmaller han 20 km2.
45
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Stat ion number:
Locat ion:
R iver :
6 0 0 . 1
Uwa Gaon
Arun RiverLa t i t ude : 2 7 36 00
Longi tude: 87 20 06
EXTREME DISCHARGES
MAXIMI'M INSTAI.ITA}IEOUS
Year Discharge Gauge heighE DateMINIMI,M INSTAI{TAI\TEOUS
Discharge caugE height DaEe(m3/s ( m) {m3/s
6 9 . 3
6 7 5
5 2 . 9
5 3 . 0
6 1 . 0
5 5 . 4
5 9 4
5 3 0
5 L . B
, 5 L . 3
(m )
L . 8 7 L 8 / 0 2 / 8 6
L . 8 s t e / 0 2 / 8 7
1 . 6 7 2 7 / O L / 8 8
1 . 8 0 2 0 / 0 2 / 8 e
1 . 6 0 0 7 0 2 / e o
r . . 3 2 6 / o r / e t1 _ . s 8 2 7 / 0 2 / 9 2
1 . s 0 2 3 / 0 3 / e 3
1 . 4 8 2 2 / O L / g q
1 . 4 8 0 3 / O r / e 5
l - 9 8 5
1 _ 9 8 6
L 9 8 7
L 9 8 8
L 9 B 9
r .990
r_991_
1992
r .993
L 9 9 4
r_99s
t 4 2 0 5 . 6 0
L 2 7 0 6 . 3 0
05 / oe / 8s2 e / 0 6 / 8 6t2 / 08 /87t s / o 8 /8 82 e / 0 5 / 8 et 3 / 0 8 / e o76 / 06/ eL2s / o B /e 20 4 / 0 7 / e 30 8 / 0 8 / e 42 8 / 0 8 / e s
L 5 20j - 3 7 0
1270
L L 7 0
)-47
L270
6 . 8 0
6 . 5 0
6 . 3 0
6 . 1 0
6 . 7 0
5 . 3 0
t 4 7 0 6 . 7 0
9 5 7 5 . 6 0
1 4 5 0 . 6 . 5 0
66
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