Hurricanes …no two are the same…
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Hurricanes…no two are the same…
Bill ReadDirector
National Hurricane Center
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Category 1
Within 75 miles
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Category 2
Within 75 miles
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Category 3
Within 75 miles
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Category 4
Within 75 miles
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Remember the Gulf Developers
• 1932 – TS 180 miles south of GLS – Cat 4 at landfall less than 36h
• 1943 , Alicia – both formed south of NOLA landfall less than 72h
• Audrey June 1957 – Cat 4 less then 72h after forming
• Anita (5), Celia (4), Camille (5) and Opal (4) all less then 96h
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Category 2 MOM Galveston Basin
Mostly barrier island and inland marsh inundation
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While Surge is our most recent focus, let’s not forget wind
Alicia Andrew
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Potential wind threat from a Cat 4 at landfall
>125 mph
110 – 125 mph
90 – 110 mph
75-90 mph55-75 mph
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Wind impacts
Rita forecast 150 mph 1 min average winds at landfall.
Gusts range 130-150 mph (1.5 x sustained)
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Peak measured Gusts in Ike
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The nightmare urban flood
Houston - June 8-9, 2001 Onset during
Friday evening About 2,000,000
folks experienced 10-15” rainfall in 6-12 hours
About 100,000 cars, 50,000 homes flooded
Loss of life (21) miraculously low considering scale of flooding
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FRESHWATER 59%
WIND 12%SURF 11%
OFFSHORE 11%
TORNADO 4%OTHER 2%
SURGE 1%
1970-99 U.S. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEATHS
(Pre Katrina)
Over 800 of the 1000 deaths in 2008 were due to rainwater flooding
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Reason for large increase
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What’s the real hazard?
• We insist on living near the coast• Building codes less than even modest
hurricane winds (consider: Ike top 3 loss list)• Land use tied to the 100 year event - Flood
Insurance not “required” if outside 100 year.• People begin to forget within 5 years (IEM risk
management)
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Thanks
…and each one has a unique history