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Transcript of HURRICANES - Baron · Colin Julia Richard ... The band where hurricanes rise Tropical cyclones are...
TABLEOF CONTENTS
Page 3: Weather Knowledge
Page 5: Weather IQ
Page 8: Hurricanes
Page 19: Forecasting & Tracking
Page 25: Rising Floods
Page 30: Your Advantage
2
The only good thing about a hurricane is the time is
gives you to prepare.
How confident are you in your ability to interpret a hurricane forecast?
Hurricanes derive their name from the Mayan storm god Hurakan, who
caused windblown destruction and chaos. So it’s no surprise that hurricanes
can be challenging for first responders and emergency management
professionals, not just because of the events that happen during the event,
but also for the havoc they wreak afterward. Your ability to analyze and
interpret weather data before and during a hurricane is essential to protecting
your community, and yet you probably didn’t train to be a meteorologist.
Accessible anytime and anywhere, Baron Threat Net® delivers the critical weather
data needed in an easy-to-read format that helps you make fast, informed and effective mission-critical
decisions during hurricane events and other severe weather situations – freeing you up to focus on taking
action rather than interpreting science.
Baron Threat Net makes it easier to predict, plan and prepare for hurricane events. Our product provides
current conditions and forecasts that give 24/7 accurate, detailed coverage based on a professional,
proprietary weather system. Baron Threat Net lets you monitor a changing situation in real-time or up to
seven days out.
This book provides a look at some of the most common dangers for communities like yours before,
during and after a hurricane and insight into how Baron Threat Net can help you get ahead of even the
most challenging weather conditions.4
Are you trained for weather emergencies?
The vast majority (78%) of disasters recorded in
the United States each year are weather related.
And yet when asked what types of incidents
they expect to respond to over the course of
the year, many Emergency Management
Personnel (EMP) and public safety officials
underestimate the number of weather focused
disasters and overestimate acts of terrorism and
incidents involving mass transportation.
The result? EMP and public safety officials are
undertrained in weather-related disasters and
over-trained in other types of incidents.
In order to more effectively and cost efficiently
keep the public safe, emergency managers
need to be knowledgeable about weather
phenomenon and the impact severe weather
can have on their communities.
6Source: Weaver, J., Harkabus, L. C., Braun, J., Miller, S., Cox, R., Griffith, J., & Mazur, R. J. (2014). An Overview of a Demographic Study of United States Emergency Managers. Bulletin Of The American Meteorological Society, 95(2), 199-203. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00183.1
With time and resources at a premium in many
communities, Baron Threat Net makes it simple
and cost-efficient to access the weather data
emergency managers public safety officials
need to predict, plan and prepare for a variety
of weather incidents.
Data is presented in an easy-to-understand
format and can help compensate for limited
public safety and EMP training in weather-
related disasters.
Outlined in this eBook are the most common
types of weather emergencies and the ways
Baron Threat Net can deliver critical weather
intelligence to help keep people and assets safe.
A Wealth of Complex Data. One Simple Solution.
7
Name That Hurricane
In 1953, the National Hurricane Center
established a list of names for Atlantic tropical
storms. Six yearly lists were created and are
recycled every six years. The names on each list
remain the same unless there is a storm so
costly or deadly that to reuse that name again
would be inappropriate. Should this situation
arise, that name is taken off the list and a new
name is chosen by the World Meteorological
Organization to replace it.
Since 1954, 80 names have been retired
including Hazel, Katrina, Fran, Sandy and
Andrew.
Danger Has A Name
2016 Atlantic Tropical Hurricane Names
Alex Hermine Otto
Bonnie Ian Paula
Colin Julia Richard
Danielle Karl Shary
Earl Lisa Tobias
Fiona Matthew Virginie
Gaston Nicole Walter
9Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames_history.shtml
As temperatures rise, so do the odds
The North Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June
1 through November 30, however tropical storms and
hurricanes have the ability to form at any time as long as the
conditions are right.
The peak timeframe for North Atlantic hurricanes lies
between August and October when the water is warmest, the
wind shear is smallest, and the easterly waves are most
vigorous. As a result, the hurricanes that have formed during
this window include:
• 90% of the 10 deadliest hurricanes
• 97% of Category 5 hurricanes
• 100% of the costliest U.S. hurricanes
In addition, the five most intense hurricanes have made
landfall with a 17-day period spanning August 17 to
September 2.
‘Tis The Season
10Sources: http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/near-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-is-most-likely-yearhttps://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-season-peak-atlantic-infographic-20140801
The band where hurricanes rise
Tropical cyclones are like engines that require warm,
moist air as fuel. So the first ingredient needed for a
tropical cyclone is warm ocean water. That is why
tropical cyclones form only in tropical regions where
the ocean is at least 80 degrees F for at least the top
50 meters (about 165 feet) below the surface.
The second ingredient for a tropical cyclone is wind.
In the case of hurricanes that form in the Atlantic
Ocean, the wind blowing westward across the
Atlantic from Africa provides the necessary
ingredient. As the wind passes over the ocean's
surface, water evaporates (turns into water vapor)
and rises. As it rises, the water vapor cools, and
condenses back into large water droplets, forming
large cumulonimbus clouds. These clouds are just
the beginning.
.
The Hurricane Generation Zone
11Sources: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Hurricanes/http://news.mit.edu/2010/hurricane-thermostate-0304
Swirling bands of chaos
Meteorologists have divided the development
of a hurricane into four stages: Tropical
disturbance, tropical depression, tropical storm,
and full-fledged Hurricane.
1. Tropical disturbance
When the water vapor from the warm ocean
condenses to form clouds, it releases its heat to
the air. The warmed air rises and is pulled into
the column of clouds. Evaporation and
condensation continue, building the cloud
columns higher and larger. A pattern develops,
with the wind circulating around a center (like
water going down a drain). As the moving
column of air encounters more clouds, it
becomes a cluster of thunderstorm clouds,
called a tropical disturbance.
Evolution Of A Hurricane
12Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php
Swirling bands of chaos
2. Tropical Depression
As the thunderstorm grows higher and larger,
the air at the top of the cloud column is
cooling and becoming unstable. As the heat
energy is released from the cooling water
vapor, the air at the top of the clouds becomes
warmer, making the air pressure higher and
causing winds to move outward away from the
high pressure area. This movement and
warming causes pressures at the surface to
drop. Then air at the surface moves toward the
lower pressure area, rises, and creates more
thunderstorms. Winds in the storm cloud
column spin faster and faster, whipping around
in a circular motion. When the winds reach
between 25 and 38 mph, the storm is called a
tropical depression.
Evolution Of A Hurricane
Tropical Depression Symbol
13Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php
Swirling bands of chaos
3. Tropical Storm
When the wind speeds reach 39 mph, the
tropical depression becomes a tropical storm.
This is also when the storm gets a name. The
winds blow faster and begin twisting and
turning around the eye, or calm center, of the
storm. Wind direction is counterclockwise (west
to east) in the northern hemisphere and
clockwise (east to west) in the southern
hemisphere. This phenomenon is known as the
Coriolis effect.
Evolution Of A Hurricane
Tropical Storm Symbol
14Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php
Swirling bands of chaos
4. Hurricane (Tropical Cyclone)
When the wind speeds reach 74 mph, the storm is
officially a tropical cyclone, otherwise known as a
Hurricane. The storm is at least 50,000 feet high and
around 125 miles across. The eye is around 5 to 30 miles
wide. The trade winds (which blow from east to west)
push the Hurricane toward the west—toward the
Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, or the southeastern coast
of the U.S. The winds and the low air pressure also cause
a huge mound of ocean water to pile up near the eye of
the tropical cyclone, which can cause monster storm
surges when all this water reaches land.
Hurricanes usually weaken when they hit land, because
they are no longer being fed by the energy from the
warm ocean waters. However, they often move far inland,
resulting in flooding and wind damage before they die
out completely.
Evolution Of A Hurricane
Hurricane Symbol
15Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php
Wind Shear: Hurricane Killers
Wind shear is a change in wind speed and/or
direction over a short distance. It can occur
either horizontally or vertically and is most
often associated with strong temperature
inversions or density gradients. Wind shear
can occur at high or low altitudes.
Hurricanes form most easily in the absence of
wind shear. But when wind shear does occur,
the structure of the hurricane becomes tilted
which negatively impacts the flow of heat and
moisture in the center of the storm. This
makes the storm less efficient at drawing its
primary fuel – warm, moist ocean air – less
likely to develop and strengthen.
What Can Take Down A Hurricane?
16Source: https://www.wunderground.com/education/shear.asp
Warmer water fuels,
Cooler water remains
We have established that warm water fuels development of
hurricanes. But did you also know that the movement of a
hurricane cools the surface temperature of the ocean?
Three things happen during a hurricane that can contribute
to ocean cooling:
• Hurricanes transfer heat from the water to the atmosphere
through evaporation
• Hurricanes pull cold water from deep below the surface
due to “suction” generated by the low-pressure center of
the storm.
• Cloud cover may prevent the ocean’s surface from
receiving direct sunlight before and after the storm passes.
Hurricanes Rita and Katrina dropped ocean temperatures by
more than 7 degrees Fahrenheit.
The Cooling Effects Of Hurricanes
17Source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=6223
Accessible anytime and anywhere, Baron Threat Net® delivers critical weather
intelligence in an easy-to-read format for fast, informed and effective situational
decisions – freeing you up to focus on keeping people and assets safe. Here are just a
few of ways to predict, plan and respond to catastrophic events:
• Track current conditions and forecasts that give 24/7 accurate, detailed coverage
based on a professional, proprietary weather system.
• Monitor a changing situation in real-time or up to 7 days out
• Evaluate incoming threats from tropical storms and hurricanes – high winds,
heavy rains, flooding, lightning and more on the county, city or town or street level.
• Utilize high-resolution, customizable mapping for the ultimate view of operational conditions
• Point, click and save the data that matters most
• Assess threats with a full-screen interactive mode that provides unmatched visualization of severe
weather on a single screen
• Access local radar, storm markers, official storm tracks and hurricane hunter data
for a comprehensive view of approaching storms
• Use Telestration tools to make briefings on NWS warnings, watches, and advisories easy to prepare and
deliver
Baron Threat Net Advantage - Forecasting
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On a scale of 1 to 5, how dangerous is a
Hurricane?
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5
rating based on a hurricane's sustained wind speed.
This scale helps estimate potential property damage and
also provides critical data that helps communities
determine where and when to evacuate affected
communities, appropriate evacuation routes and more.
Hurricanes that are Category 3 or higher are designated
major hurricanes based on their ability to decimate
property and the potential for significant loss of lives.
Category 1 and 2 storms are still quite dangerous and
safety measures should be taken to prevent property
damage and protect citizens.
Measuring Ferocity
20Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php
Storm Surge: Nature’s deadly wall of water
Surprisingly, hurricane-fueled coastal flooding (created by storm surge, waves and tides) is actually the most significant
threat to life and property along the coastline.
The height of the storm surge (the bulge of water that crashes into the coastline during a storm) is determined by the
difference between the height of the storm tide and the predicted astronomical tide. This wall of water is driven ashore by
wind and the inverse barometric effect of low atmospheric pressure, and is influenced by waves, tides, and bathymetric
and topographic surfaces.
The likelihood and impact of the storm surge and coastal flooding depends the intensity of the hurricane, its size,
translational speed, angle of approach to the coast, landfall location, and the bottom slope at that location.
The Rush To Shore
21Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/
Diving into the heart of the hurricane
To determine the track and intensity of a hurricane,
forecasters gather data regarding atmospheric and
ocean conditions. Much of this data can be gathered
using satellites, but data also needs to be gathered via
air.
Currently, U.S. units that fly these missions are the Air
Force Reserve's 53d Weather Reconnaissance Squadron
and NOAA's Hurricane Hunters.
Data regarding wind, barometric pressure, temperature
and humidity is gathered throughout the entire flight
including from the eye of the storm, which presents a
host of dangerous conditions and violent turbulence.
Horizontal wind speeds can shift up to 100 mph in a few
seconds.
Yet despite the danger, only one flight has ever been
lost since they began flying these missions during WWII
in 1943.
A Dangerous Flight Path
22Source: http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/grounders/hurricanehunters.html
The cone of uncertainty
In Hurricane forecasting, the Cone of Uncertainty graphic is
designed to provide information to those that could be
potentially impacted by a tropical system.
The cone forecasts the path of the storm's center, or eye; two-
thirds of the time, the center of the storm will remain within
the cone. So in theory, one out of three storm centers will go
outside of the "cone" and impact areas outside of the
forecast.
It's also important to remember that tropical systems are
expansive storms and that even if the center of the storm
stays within the "cone" areas outside will still be affected. The
graphic only forecasts the path of the center of the storm and
high winds, flooding rains, tornados, storm surge, waves, etc.
occur even hundreds of miles outside the center of the storm.
Determining The Landfall Target
23Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml
Baron Threat Net Advantage – Eyeing A Hurricane
With a hurricane in the forecast, Baron Threat Net can provide all data you need to
assess its potential threat for your community:
• Utilize the official storm forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Official Tropical
Track Forecast dataset – the Cone of Uncertainty – to visualize where the NHC is forecasting the
travel path of the storm center over the next 120 hours (5 days)
• Interact with the Cone of Uncertainty to see the storm’s predicted category strength, wind speed,
and wind gusts
• Track flying storm planes through Baron Threat Net, and interact with the path to see the latest
measurements during flights
• Access Tropical Model Forecasts, more commonly known as Spaghetti models, to see alternate
forecast models. While not official, it can be useful to see alternate scenarios and determine
whether models share similar paths.
• Monitor wind speeds, anticipated and accumulated rain totals and wave height conditions for
oceanic and fresh water waterways to gauge storm surge and potential flooding risks.
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Inland Destruction: Wind & Water
As hurricanes weaken, they transition to tropical storms and
move inland, the impact of heavy rain bands and still strong
winds can adversely affect the safety and property of
citizens of inland communities. Flooding, infrastructure
damage, falling trees, and downed power lines are just a
few of the potential hazards.
Danger At Sea And On Land
26Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/history/
Inland Flooding: Saturated Land, Deadly
Consequences
Inland flooding can be a major threat to communities
hundreds of miles from the coast as intense rain falls
from these huge tropical air masses. With more than
60% of the U.S. population living in coastal states,
hurricane flooding can pose a severe threat.
Over half of all flood-related drownings occur when a
vehicle is driven into hazardous flood water. The next
highest percentage of flood-related deaths happen
when people walk into or near flood waters. It takes as
little as six inches of water to sweep a person off their
feet. A small car can be swept downstream in about a
foot of rushing water and most any vehicle can be swept
away in just two feet of water.
Knee Deep In Devastation
27Sources:http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ohd/hurricane/inland_flooding.htmlhttps://weather.com/safety/hurricane/news/hurricanes-tropical-storms-us-deaths-surge-flooding
Flood Warnings & Watches: Danger Rises
with the Water
Flash Flood Warning
Issued when a flash flood is imminent or occurring.
People in flood prone areas should move
immediately to high ground. A flash flood is a
sudden violent flood that can happen in just a few
minutes or may take hours. It is also possible to
experience a flash flood in areas not actually
receiving rain, but feeling the effects from water
flowing from heavy rains in nearby communities.
Flood Warning
Issued when a dangerous weather event is
happening and flooding is imminent or occurring.
Flooding: When Safety Washes Away
28Source: http://www.weather.gov/lwx/WarningsDefined
Baron Threat Net Advantage – Water Watch
Often with tropical threats comes a flood of information such as advisories,
watches, and warnings. Baron Threat Net helps to keep you organized and
informed with a variety of features that allow you to:
• Interact with the NWS Watches & Warnings dataset in BTN to click on your community and see
exactly what the NWS wants you to know
• Utilize Baron’s 24-Hr Rainfall Accumulation product to see which communities have received the
most rain in the last 24 hours
• Check the Forecast Precipitation product to track different types of precipitation through the next
four days and determine where the storm will hit hardest
• Utilize the Precipitation Accumulation product to gauge how much precipitation will fall based on
the Baron Model – plot locations on a map, animate through time, to quickly see how much
precipitation is expected
• Use Baron’s Road Conditions to keep an eye on the roads during tropical storm and hurricane
downpours to know what roads are likely being flooded. Combine with street level mapping,
interactivity, and the ability to query, to determine which roads are slippery or impassable.
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Baron Threat Net delivers the critical weather intelligence emergency management professionals need
to focus on most through high-resolution, customizable mapping for the ultimate view of operational
conditions. With the ability to monitor your weather on a county, city or town or street level, Baron
Threat Net improves your ability to quickly scan, monitor and investigate all severe weather on a single
screen.
We also give you the ability to access local radar, storm vectors, winds and lightning data for a
comprehensive view of approaching storms. Other tools help you assess winter weather, road
conditions and more. Telestration tools make briefings on NWS warnings, watches, and advisories easy
to prepare and deliver. Just select and display the custom layer combinations of the weather and map
views critical to your operations.
Your City, Your Weather, Your View.
31
MOTHER NATURE WON’T WAIT.
Order Today!
For more information, discount availability, or to schedule a demo,
please contact us at (256) 881-8811 or [email protected]
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