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Hazard and damage potential maps produced by Willis are based on numerical modeling results from Kinetic Analysis Corporation.

Tropical Storm OpheliaInformation from NHC Advisory 10, 5:00 AM EDT Friday September 23, 2011Tropical Storm Ophelia continues to weaken. Some additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Ophelia could become a tropical depression over the weekend.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading Landfall Forecast (NHC)

Max Sustained Wind Speed:

45 mph (tropical storm)

Position Relative to Land:

740 miles ESE of the Leeward Islands Est. Time & Region: n/a

Min Central Pressure: 1004 mb Coordinates: 14.5, 51.0 W

Trop. Storm ForceWinds (39+ mph):

260 miles from the center Bearing/Speed: WNW or 290 degrees at 13 mph Est. Max Sustained Wind

Speed: n/a

HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY

eVENT™

Forecast Summary• Within 48 hours, there is a 42% chance Ophelia will remain a tropical storm (39-73 mph winds), a 4% chance Ophelia will strengthen to a

hurricane (74+ mph winds) and a 56% chance Ophelia will weaken to a tropical depression (winds below 39 mph) or dissipate.

• The windfield map – based on the HWRF 00:00 UTC forecast (below right) – shows that this model has forecast the storm’s peak winds at

category 1 hurricane strength (74-95 mph winds). The HWRF – one of many models used by NOAA – has been statistically identified as the

current “best performing” model for Tropical Storm Ophelia by Kinetic Analysis Corp. Forecast tracks for all current models (All Fcst Tracks) are

shown on the map (in pale gray) to illustrate the uncertainty in Ophelia’s forecast track.

• The NHC estimates that Barbuda and Saint Maarten each have an 8% chance of experiencing weak tropical storm force winds (39-58 mph) from

Ophelia within the next five days. Other islands in the vicinity of Barbuda and Saint Maarten are also estimated to have some chance of experiencing Ophelia’s winds, but lower than the chances estimated for Barbuda and Saint Maarten.

Forecast Track for Tropical Storm Ophelia(National Hurricane Center)

Forecast Windfield & Rain Footprint for Tropical Storm Ophelia(Based on HWRF as of 00:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp.

Santo Domingo

Washington D.C.

OttawaOttawa

San JuanSan JuanKingstonKingston Port-au-PrincePort-au-Prince

NassauNassau

CastriesCastries

WillemstadWillemstad

Fort-De-FranceFort-De-France

MiamiMiami

BuffaloBuffaloTorontoToronto

USUS

CACA

DODO

CUCU

COCO VEVE

Tropic of CancerTropic of Cancer

Bermuda

09-28

09-25

09-24

09-27

09-26

09-23

0 1,000 2,000500 Miles

weak TSstrong TSCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5All Fcst Tracks

below 1 in1 - 3 in3 - 6 in6 - 9 in9 - 12 in12 - 24 inHWRF FcstTrackNHC FcstTrack

Ï!D TD

Ï!S TS

Ï!1 Cat1

Ï!2 Cat2

Ï!3 Cat3

Ï!4 Cat4

Ï!5 Cat5

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Roy Cloutier7760 France Avenue SouthMinneapolis, MN 55435roy.cloutier@willis.com+1 (952) 841-6652

Contact us

Brian Owens51 Lime Street London EC3M 7DQbrian.owens@willis.com+44 (0)20 3124 7637

Warnings, Watches and New Tropical Cyclone PotentialThere are no coastal watches or warnings in effect for Ophelia.

NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclone FormationThe map to the right illustrates the NHC’s estimate of tropical

cyclone formation potential over the next 48 hours in the Atlantic.

No new tropical cyclones are expected in the Atlantic within the

next 48 hours.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on September 23, 2011

Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to DateTropical Storm Activity to DateOphelia is the fifteenth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic

Hurricane Season. Thirteen named storms, six hurricanes

and five major hurricanes, Danielle, Earl, Igor, Julia and

Karl, had occurred by this date last year. The next tropical

storm of 2011 will be named Philippe.

For the years 1995-2010, the average dates of the fifteenth

and thirteenth named storms are Nov 1 and Oct 21,

respectively. Sep 2 and Sep 25 are the average dates of the

third and sixth hurricanes. Sep 9 and Oct 9 are the average

dates of the second and fifth major hurricanes.

Benchmarking the 2011 Atlantic Season to DateTropical Storms

Total Hurricanes

Cat 3-5 Hurricanes

2011 year to date (1/1/11 – 9/23/11) 15 3 22010 year to date (1/1/10 – 9/23/10) 13 6 51995-2010 season average 14.4 7.9 3.81950-2010 season average 10.5 6.2 2.72011 CSU season forecasts(Colorado State University at Aug 3)

16 9 5

2011 NOAA season forecasts(NOAAs Climate Prediction Center at Aug 4)

14-19 7-10 3-5

Risk Remaining in the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane SeasonAtlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity

(categories 3-5) both peak in September, as the graph to the

right illustrates. The average remaining percentage of days

with Atlantic hurricane activity at September 23 is 30.6%

for all hurricanes and 23.8% for major hurricanes.

Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900

0%

12%

24%

36%

48%

60%

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Ave

rage

Dai

ly R

isk

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Ave

rage

Rem

aini

ng R

isk

All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5)