Hurricane Science Tutorial - World Meteorological Organization...hurricane in the U.S. Hurricane...
Transcript of Hurricane Science Tutorial - World Meteorological Organization...hurricane in the U.S. Hurricane...
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Hurricane Science Tutorial
Kerry Emanuel
Lorenz Center, MIT
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Why Should You Care?
Forecasting
Much progress in social science of response to warnings, requests to evacuate, etc.
Forecasters are ambassadors to meteorology
Opportunity to inform public
Knowledge if hurricane science increases public interest and trust
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Program
Brief overview of hurricanes
Current understanding
Basic state of the tropical atmosphere
Instability of the basic state – genesis
Energy cycle of mature hurricanes – concept of potential intensity
Negative influences on hurricanes
Statistics of hurricane intensification
Hurricane motion
Hurricanes and climate change
Summary
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Overview: What is a Hurricane?
Formal definition: A tropical cyclone with 1-min average winds at 10 m altitude in excess of 32 m/s (64 knots or 74 MPH) occurring over the North Atlantic or eastern North Pacific
A tropical cyclone is a nearly symmetric, warm-core cyclone powered by wind-induced enthalpy fluxes from the sea surface
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Global Climatology
Tracks of all tropical cyclones in the historical record from 1851 to 2010. The tracks are
colored according to the maximum wind at 10 m altitude, on the scale at lower right.
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Global Tropical Cyclone Frequency, 1980-2015
Data Sources: NOAA/TPC and NAVY/JTWC
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Annual Cycle of Tropical Cyclones
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NH
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun SH
a
a
Northern
Hemisphere
(NH)
Southern
Hemisphere
(SH) Nu
mb
er
of
Even
ts p
er
Mo
nth
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Outer radius very nearly follows a log-normal distribution with a median
value of about 420 km (Courtesy Dan Chavas)
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The Global Hurricane Hazard
About 10,000 deaths per year since 1971
$700 Billion 2015 U.S. Dollars in Damages
Annually since 1971
EM-DAT, 2016: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
http://www.emdat.be/.
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Privately insured… $$$
Publicly
insured…
No $$$
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QUIZ
In an average year, the globe experiences
1. 50-60 TCs
2. 75-85 TCs
3. 100-110 TCs
The most lethal aspect of a hurricane is
1. Wind
2. Rain and storm surge
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The View from Space
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View of the eye of Hurricane Katrina on August 28th,
2005, as seen from a NOAA WP-3D hurricane
reconnaissance aircraft.
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Airborne Radar: Horizontal Map
360 km
(220 mi)
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120 km
20 km
(12 mi)
(75 mi)
Airborne Radar: Vertical Slice
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Hurricane Structure: Wind Speed
Azimuthal component of wind
< 11 5 ms-1 - > 60 ms-1
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Updraft Speed
Vertical Air Motion
Strong upward motion in the eyewall
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Specific entropy
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Absolute angular momentum per unit mass 2M rV r
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Starting Point: Radiative-Moist
Convective Equilibrium
Equilibrium state in which convective and
radiative energy fluxes balance at each altitude
Vertical profile nearly neutral to moist convection
Strongly-two way interaction: Radiation drives
profile toward instability, convection lofts water
that strongly affects radiative transfer
Jump in humidity near ocean surface
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Majuro, 00 GMT August 2, 2015
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The radiation physicist’s heart knoweth its own bitterness, but a stranger meddleth not with its joy
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Cloud-permitting models of radiative-convective equilibrium run in moderately large domains
• Horizontal Resolution:
2km • Vertical Resolution: 64
levels • Periodic lateral
boundaries • Initial sounding from
domain average of smaller domain run in RCE
• No solar fluxes; specified radiative cooling rate.
Example: System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) of Khairoutdinov and Randall (2003)
1152 km
1152 km
28 km
Rigid Lid
Fixed SST 300 K
Courtesy Tim Cronin, MIT
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Physics of Mature Hurricanes
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Cross-section through a Hurricane & Energy Production
Nearly isothermal expansion
Isothermal compression
eye edge
Low entropy
Heig
ht
ab
ove o
ce
an
Ocean surface Radius (km)
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Carnot Theorem: Maximum efficiency results from
a particular energy cycle:
Isothermal expansion
Adiabatic expansion
Isothermal compression
Adiabatic compression
Note: Last leg is not adiabatic in hurricanes: Air cools radiatively. But since
the environmental temperature profile is moist adiabatic, the amount of
radiative cooling is the same as if air were saturated and descending moist
adiabatically.
Maximum rate of energy production:
s o
s
T TP Q
T
&
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Theoretical Upper Bound on
Hurricane Maximum Wind Speed:
*2| |0
C T Tk s oV k kmax TC
oD
1 4 4 2 4 4 3
Air-sea enthalpy
disequilibrium
Surface
temperature
Outflow
temperature
Ratio of
exchange
coefficients of
enthalpy and
momentum p vk c T L q
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0o 60oE 120oE 180oW 120oW 60oW
60oS
30oS
0o
30oN
60oN
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Annual Maximum Potential Intensity (m/s)
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Dependence on Sea Surface
Temperature (SST):
Potential Intensity is
not the same thing as
SST!
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QUIZ
Tropical cyclones are powered by
1. Latent heat
2. Surface heat fluxes
3. Horizontal temperature gradients
The upper limit on hurricane wind speeds is determined by
1. Sea surface temperature
2. How warm the ocean is relative to the atmosphere above
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Relationship between potential
intensity (PI) and intensity of
real tropical cyclones
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Why do real storms seldom reach
their thermodynamic potential?
One Reason: Ocean Interaction
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Strong Mixing of Upper Ocean
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Mixed layer depth and
currents
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SST Change
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Comparing Fixed to Interactive SST:
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A good simulation of Camille can only be obtained by assuming that
it traveled right up the axis of the Loop Current:
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Loop
Current
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Wind Shear
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Shear appears to weaken TCs by
blowing dry, low theta_e air into
the core
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Statistics of Hurricane Intensification
Common logarithms of the probability densities of open-ocean tropical cyclone intensity change rates in the North Atlantic region from 3504 observations (blue) and from 316 950 synthetic samples (red) of hurricane-intensity storms. Green lines or dots indicate the 5th and 95th percentiles of 1000 subsamples of the synthetic tracks data at the rate of the observed data for each intensity change bin. All distributions are bounded below by 1025. The synthetic data are subsampled every 6 h and rounded to 5 kt to match the best track data
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Tropical Cyclone Motion
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Tropical cyclones move approximately with a suitably
defined vertical vector average of the flow in which they
are embedded
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145 150 155 160 16515
20
25
30
35
Longitude
La
titu
de
20
30
40
50
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Lagrangian chaos:
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Vortices in interacting with Earth’s vorticity:
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Baroclinic vortices in shear: A simple model
Two layers, with upper layer moving with respect to
lower layer
Lower layer contains point vortex, whose circulation
projects outward and upward
Upper layer has point source of zero vorticity air co-
located with lower point vortex; zero PV air
separated from surroundings by a single, expanding
contour
(From Wu and Emanuel, 1993)
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Lower (left) and upper (right) flows for zero shear:
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Evolution of upper layer vortex patch when weak shear is
present
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Evolution of upper layer vortex patch when moderate
shear is present
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Evolution of upper layer vortex patch when strong shear
is present
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Hurricanes and Climate
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Prior to 1970, Many Storms Were Missed
Major hurricanes in the North Atlantic, 1851-2016, smoothed using a 10-year running average. Shown in blue are storms that either passed through the chain of Lesser Antilles or made landfall in the continental U.S.; all other major hurricanes are shown in red. The dashed lines show the best fit trend lines for each data set.
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Trends in Global TC Frequency Over Threshold Intensities, from Historical TC Data, 1980-2016. Trends Shown Only When p < 0.05.
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Time series of the latitudes at which tropical cyclones reach maximum intensity. From Kossin et al. (2014)
Hurricanes are reaching peak
intensity at higher latitudes
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Trends in Thermodynamic Potential for Hurricanes, 1980-2010
(NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis)
ms-1decade-1
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Projected Trend Over 21st Century: GFDL model
under RCP 8.5
ms-1decade-1
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Inferences from Basic Theory:
Potential intensity increases with global warming
Incidence of high-intensity hurricanes should increase
Increases in potential intensity should be faster in sub-tropics
Hurricanes will produce substantially more rain: Clausius-Clapeyron yields ~7% increase in water vapor per 1oC warming
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2017 Hurricane Records
Harvey’s storm total rainfall was largest ever recorded from a hurricane in the U.S.
Hurricane Irma sustained Category 5 winds for longer than ever recorded in any tropical cyclone on the planet
Hurricane Irma was the first recorded Atlantic hurricane to reach Cat 4 status outside the Caribbean and the second strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic
The 2017 hurricanes caused more than $300 billion in damages, the largest of any hurricane season on record
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Dominica in the wake of Hurricane Maria
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Probability of Storm Accumulated Rainfall at Houston, from 6 Climate models, 1981-2000 and 2081-2100, Based on 2000
Events Each. Shading shows spread among the models.
Harvey
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Probabilities of Storms of Irma’s Intensity within 300 km of Barbuda, from 6 Climate models, 1981-2000 and 2081-2100, Based on 2000
Events Each. Shading shows spread among the models.
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Summary
• Hurricanes appear to result from the instability of the radiative-convective equilibrium of the tropical atmosphere
• Hurricanes are almost perfect Carnot heat engines, operating off the thermodynamic disequilibrium between the tropical ocean and atmosphere, made possible by the greenhouse effect
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• Most hurricanes are prevented from reaching their potential intensity by storm-induced ocean cooling and environmental wind shear
• Hurricanes move with some vertical
average of the environmental flow plus
effects due to the earth’s rotation and
curvature, and to wind shear
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• Hurricanes are expected to become
more intense and rain more as the
climate warms