Hurricane Maria Event Recap...

Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting

Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.

Hurricane Maria

Event Recap Report March 2018


Hurricane Maria 2

Table of Contents

Executive Summary 3

Meteorological Recap 4

Event Details 11

Lesser Antilles 11

Greater Antilles 14

Energy Impacts 20

Transportation Impacts 22

Environmental Impacts 24

Historical Comparison 25

Impact Forecasting Reconnaissance Trip 26

Impact Forecasting: Modeled Results 29

Financial Losses 30

Appendix A 31

Appendix B 32

Appendix C 33

Appendix D 34

Contact Information 37


Hurricane Maria 3

Executive Summary

Hurricane Maria became the costliest hurricane to track across the Caribbean on record, and the second-

costliest storm of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The powerful system left catastrophic damage and

human impact on the island of Puerto Rico and elsewhere in the Caribbean, including Dominica and the

U.S. Virgin Islands. Extended power outages and destroyed infrastructure in Puerto Rico led to significant

business interruption. The total economic cost of Maria was roughly estimated around USD65 billion.

Public and private insurers cited payouts around USD27 billion.

Maria was officially recognized as a Tropical Storm by the National Hurricane Center on September 16,

2017. The storm tracked through an area with extremely warm ocean waters and low wind shear,

reaching Category 1 intensity by September 18. In a span of only 24 hours, Maria underwent an

extremely rapid intensification cycle to reach Category 5 intensity, which was shortly followed by a direct

landfall on the island of Dominica with devastating effects.

In the following hours and days, Maria tracked closely to the areas previously affected by Hurricane Irma.

Despite undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, the storm did not weaken during the regeneration

process and reach its peak intensity with sustained winds of 175 mph (280 kph). In the morning hours of

September 20, Maria made landfall in southeastern Puerto Rico as a Category 4 hurricane after

undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. This made Maria the strongest storm to come ashore on the

island since 1928. It would become the costliest disaster in the history of Puerto Rico. After exiting the

island, Maria took a turn to the north and did not directly affect the mainland United States. However,

some impacts resulting from high surf was felt in several coastal Atlantic states.

A combination of extreme wind speeds, dangerous storm surge and torrential rainfall resulted in

substantial damage on several Caribbean islands.

Hurricane Maria was the first Category 5 storm on record to make landfall in Dominica, a small Caribbean

nation. Extreme conditions resulted in damage or destruction of 98 percent of buildings on the island.

Widespread damage in all sectors of the economy occurred and more than 30 people lost their lives.

Impacts of lesser degree were also felt on the neighboring islands of Martinique and Guadeloupe.

Widespread damage was sustained by the U.S. and the British Virgin Islands, which were previously

affected by Hurricane Irma.

Maria’s impact in Puerto Rico was devastating and resulted in the worst natural catastrophe to ever

impact the island. Official statistics estimated that at least 55 people had died and a minimum of 250,000

homes had been severely damaged or destroyed across the island. The catastrophe also highlighted the

issue of a significant portion of residential property being built illegally. A majority of residents did not own

hazard insurance and the vast majority of the insured loss in Puerto Rico was sustained by the

commercial sector. Prolonged power and water outages impacted the entire island months after the

catastrophe and led to major business interruption. Apart from widespread wind damage, coastal and

inland flooding ensued and rivers crested at record levels.

Hurricane Maria became one of the costliest natural catastrophes ever recorded globally. It became the

eighth-costliest event in terms of economic loss, and sixth from the insurance perspective. Together with

Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, Maria substantially contributed to a high economic toll during the 2017

Atlantic Hurricane Season. Total economic losses are estimated at USD65 billion, with the insurance

sector covering USD27 billion. The vast majority of the Maria’s impact was recorded in Puerto Rico.


Hurricane Maria 4

Meteorological Recap

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) began watching an organizing cluster of thunderstorms on

September 14 (00:00 UTC) after it had exited the west coast of Africa a few days prior. The agency

initially gave the tropical wave a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next

five days. However, the system began to organize more quickly than initially thought and the NHC

declared the system Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen on September 16 (15:00 UTC).

During this time, initial tropical storm watches were issued for parts of the Leeward Islands. (Beginning in

2017, the NHC started using the term ‘Potential Tropical Cyclone’ to describe a disturbance that is not yet

a tropical cyclone, but poses the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas

within 48 hours.)

The NHC would officially deem the disturbance a Tropical Depression on September 16 (18:00 UTC) and

Tropical Storm Maria just three hours later. The storm continued to get better organized while tracking

west-northwestward through the Tropical Atlantic Ocean. Steady intensification occurred as Maria moved

through an area with minimal vertical wind shear and extremely warm ocean waters. The cyclone would

officially reach hurricane intensity with 75 mph (120 kph) winds on September 17 (21:00 UTC) while the

outer fringes of the system started to enter the Leeward Islands.

Maria’s explosive 24-hour intensification (Source: NASA, CSU)


Hurricane Maria 5

By September 18, Maria was a Category 1 hurricane with

80 mph (130 kph) sustained winds. During the next 24

hours, it would undergo explosive rapid intensification to

Category 5 intensity. During the 24 hour span between

September 18 (00:00 UTC) and September 19 (00:00

UTC), the NHC projected that Maria would undergo

intensification with a likelihood of becoming a major

hurricane (Category 3 or greater) during the next 24 hours.

One of the more trusted statistically-based intensity

models – known as the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index

– gave a 51 percent chance of rapid intensification by 30

knots during the upcoming 24 hour timeframe. Maria would

eventually intensify by 70 knots in the 24 hour stretch and

reaching an incredible intensity of 160 mph (260 kph) while

nearing the island of Dominica. The minimum central

pressure would fall from 982 millibars to 925 hours during

this time as well; further signifying Maria’s explosive

growth.

Maria would officially make landfall in Dominica at approximately 9:15 PM local time on September 18

(01:35 UTC September 19) as a Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph (260 kph) winds. This is the first time

on record that a Category 5 storm has made landfall in Dominica.

After landfall, Maria continued to track west-northwestward with slight wobbles as the system initially

started to show signs of an eyewall replacement cycle. This was significant given that the storm had a

small hurricane wind field, with hurricane-force winds only extending roughly 30 miles (45 kilometers)

from the center. Given the small wind radii, this meant that any slight wobble could have a major impact in

terms of wind-driven damage across the rest of the Caribbean.

Hurricane warnings were in effect for much of the northern Caribbean – including the U.S. Virgin Islands,

the British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and other small islands in the Lesser Antilles – on September 19

as Maria moved closer to impacting areas only recently devastated by Hurricane Irma. After moving away

from Dominica, Maria briefly weakened below Category 5 intensity with 155 mph (250 kph) winds, but

would regain Category 5 strength in less than four hours while traversing very warm waters in the

Caribbean.

During the day on September 19, Maria continued to

track west-northwestward towards the Virgin Islands

(British and U.S.) and Puerto Rico. The system

maintained Category 5 strength with 160 mph (260

kph) winds as large swells began to batter many

islands. An eyewall replacement cycle did commence

as the hurricane and tropical storm-force wind field

radii began to expand. However, similarly to Hurricane

Irma, Maria did not weaken during the regeneration

process. In fact, pressure levels continued to drop and

wind speeds slightly increased during the day. The new

peak intensity was 175 mph (280 kph) as minimum

central pressure plunged to 909 millibars.

Maria landfall in Dominica (Source: Meteo France)

Maria’s eyewall passing USVI, September 20 (Source: NOAA)


Hurricane Maria 6

Maria officially made landfall in Puerto Rico at

around 06:15 AM AST on September 20 (10:15

UTC) as the center of its circulation crossed the

southeastern shores of the island near

Yabucoa, located approximately 30 miles (48

kilometers) SSE of San Juan. Maria made

landfall as an extremely dangerous Category 4

storm with 155 mph (250 kph) sustained winds,

shortly after being downgraded from the

highest category. This was the strongest

landfall in Puerto Rico since 1928 and the first

Category 4 storm to directly affect the island

since 1932.

The center of Maria’s circulation exited Puerto Rico at around 02:00 PM AST (06:00 UTC). After spending

roughly four hours over land, it emerged in the Atlantic as a weakened Category 3 strength hurricane with

sustained wind speeds of 115 mph (185 kph). Maria continued to bring torrential rainfall to Puerto Rico as

it tracked towards the Dominican Republic that prompted extensive flash flooding. By early evening,

conditions were deteriorating in northeastern parts of the country. Maria was briefly downgraded to a

Category 2 storm as the effects of tracking across the rough terrain of Puerto Rico were being felt by the

system, but it later regained major hurricane intensity near the eastern Dominican Republic. The storm

remained just offshore of the northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic maintaining Category 3

intensity as it tracked near the coast.

After passing Hispaniola, Maria took a north-northwestward

turn on September 22 and neared Turks & Caicos and the

Bahamas, while maintaining Category 3 status on the Saffir-

Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane’s outer

rainbands still affected Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin

Islands at the time, dumping as much as 8 inches (203

millimeters) of additional rainfall.

Maria remained offshore and later tracked relatively slowly

northward through the Sargasso Sea over waters that were

previously cooled significantly by the passage of Hurricane

Jose. This, coupled with moderate wind shear from

southwest, resulted in gradual weakening for the next 72

hours of Maria’s lifespan. As Maria neared the coast of North

Carolina, dangerous storm surge risk arose for much of the

U.S. east coast. Due to steady weakening, Maria’s

convective pattern was gradually losing organization, while

the central pressure rose to 970 millibars by September 26.

Maria’s extratropical transition began on September 29, after briefly regaining Category 1 intensity and

turning eastward. The storm was gradually losing its tropical characteristics, while accelerating

significantly through northern Atlantic. Nevertheless, Maria retained its Tropical Storm status despite sea

surface temperatures of around 25 degrees Celsius, as it was still able to maintain a concentrated area of

deep convection just to the east of the center. Maria became fully extratropical on September 30, after

being absorbed by a mid-latitude frontal zone.

Maria at Puerto Rico landfall, thermal satellite image (Source: NASA, CSU)

Maria and Jose, September 22 (Source: NASA, CSU)


Hurricane Maria 7

Storm Statistics

Fastest intensification from Tropical Depression to Category 5 ever recorded in the Atlantic

Ocean (53 hours and 45 minutes); previous record Hurricane Wilma (57 hours)

Maria’s lowest pressure of 924 millibars on September 19 (UTC) was the lowest for an Atlantic

hurricane this late in the calendar year since Hurricane Wilma

Maria was the strongest hurricane and the only Category 5 storm to strike Dominica on record

(160 mph)

Maria was the second strongest hurricane to make landfall in Puerto Rico on record (155 mph).

Category 5 Okeechobee hurricane from 1928 retains the record

Season Statistics

2017 is the first Atlantic season since 2007 to have two Category 5 storms

2017 is the second Atlantic season on record to have two landfalling Category 5 storms (2007;

Dean and Felix)

2016/2017 is the first time since 2004/2005 to have back-to-back seasons with Category 5 storms

Atlantic seasons on record with multiple Category 5 storms: 2017, 2007, 2005, 1961, 1933, 1932

Storm Data

Winds & Pressure


Hurricane Maria 8

Rainfall (Puerto Rico)

Location Storm Total Rainfall (in.) Location Storm Total Rainfall (in.)

Garcia, PR 37.90 Bayamon, PR 16.40

Villalba, PR 27.80 Cambalache, PR 14.70

Lomas, PR 23.90 Lago Cidra, PR 12.20

Sumidero, PR 23.40 Bairoa, PR 12.20

Aibonito, PR 22.80 Marueno, PR 11.70

Lago El Guineo, PR 19.20 Maricao, PR 11.10

Coamo, PR 18.80 Pole Ojea, PR 7.90

Caguas, PR 18.50 Coco, PR 7.60

Utuado, PR 18.40 Maria Antonio, PR 7.10

Comerio, PR 17.50 Lares, PR 6.90

Yauco, PR 16.70 Naguabo, PR 6.30

Jagual, PR 16.50

While most focus from Maria was on the wind and storm surge component to the event, there was

extensive rainfall that affected much of the island. As seen in the table above and the graphics below,

rainfall totals in excess of 10 inches was widespread, including specific locations in southeast Puerto Rico

that recorded nearly 38.00 inches. A study by NOAA indicated that in one 12-hour time interval at landfall,

rainfall rates with an estimated return period of 1-in-1,000 years (or a 0.01 percent chance of happening

in any given year) were cited across eastern, central and western parts of the island.

Source: NOAA


Hurricane Maria 9

Wind Speeds (Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands)

*Measuring equipment was damaged by Hurricane Maria. The NWS

Doppler radar located near San Juan, Puerto Rico (see photo on the

left) was also destroyed. The radome of the radar together with its

tower was supposed to be capable of withstanding winds of up to 134

mph (216 kph).

Location Maximum Sustained Wind

(mph)

Maximum Wind Gust

(mph)

Minimum Pressure

(mb)

Buck Island, USVI* 106 137 952.1

Christiansted, St. Croix, USVI N/A 136 N/A

Salinas, PR N/A 118 N/A

Frederiksted, St. Croix, USVI N/A 115 N/A

St. Thomas, USVI 71 113 N/A

Savana Island, USVI* 58 89 N/A

Charlotte Amalie, St. Thomas, USVI* 59 87 969.6

San Juan, La Puntilla, PR 56 74 N/A

San Juan, PR 48 69 993.4

Marina Del Rey, PR 39 68 994.0

Roosevelt Roads, PR 48 66 991.0

41052 - BUOY (South of St. John, USVI) 51 64 992.4

41056 - BUOY (Vieques Island, USVI) 49 63 985.7

41053 - BUOY (San Juan, PR) 45 60 988.9

St. Croix, USVI 41 59 N/A

Henry E. Rohlsen Airport, St. Croix, USVI 38 58 995.9

Fajardo, PR 40 56 N/A

Source: NOAA

Source: NOAA


Hurricane Maria 10

Storm Surge & Storm Tide

Location Storm Surge (feet) Storm Tide (feet)

Yabucoa Harbor, PR 5.44 6.00

Mayaguez, PR* 2.56 2.64

Vieques, PR 2.86 3.08

Mona Island, PR 2.50 2.99

Arecibo, PR 2.37 2.43

San Juan Bay, PR 2.35 3.74

Fajardo, PR* 2.35 2.55

Culebra, PR 2.08 2.12

St. Croix 2.07 2.71

St. Thomas, USVI 1.72 2.08

St. John, USVI 1.47 1.93

* preliminary, gauge not in operation (Source: USGS)


Hurricane Maria 11

Event Details

Lesser Antilles

Dominica

Hurricane Maria made a catastrophic landfall on the island

of Dominica shortly after strengthening to Category 5

intensity. According to the prime minister of the tiny

Caribbean nation, Maria left “widespread devastation” in its

wake. Reports out of the island indicated mass devastation

as the vast majority of structures sustained some level of

damage. All communication with the island was severely

disrupted due to extensive damage to telecommunications

and the electrical grid infrastructure. By mid-November, the

government of Dominica reported that 31 people had been

killed while a further 37 were officially listed as missing, but

presumed dead.

Damage surveys revealed that 98 percent of all of Dominica’s buildings sustained roof damage while

approximately half sustained damage to the building framework. This left more than 50,000 of the

country’s 73,000 residents directly affected. The worst of the damage was sustained in the eastern part of

the island and in remote rural areas. The United Nations reported that it had conducted a survey of nearly

30,000 buildings and discovered that 44 percent were destroyed or severely damaged, 28.5 percent

experienced damage to at least one-quarter of its structure, and another 27 percent had minor damage to

the roof. The actual breakout counts included destroyed (4,804 homes), severe damage (6,559),

moderate damage (7,209), and minor damage (6,764). Of these totals, 163 facilities were educational

facilities such as schools (108) and daycare centers. All 13,575 students on the island were affected.

The Food and Agricultural Organization reported a

100-percent loss to the agricultural industry in

Dominica which employed 25 percent of the country’s

workforce at the time of Maria’s landfall and, over the

past five years, contributed on average 15 percent of

the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Severe

damage was additionally noted to farm buildings and

infrastructure (both traffic and irrigation), forest

reserves, and coastal fisheries. Unconfirmed

numbers of cattle, sheep, goats, pigs, poultry, and

other livestock were also lost. Fisheries were

additionally affected.

Maria was the first Category 5 hurricane on record to make landfall in Dominica. The previous record was

Hurricane David, which struck Dominica 38 years previously at Category 4 strength. That storm, which

brushed the southern coast of the island, left at least 37 people dead and the national economy

devastated. More recently, 2015’s Tropical Storm Erika caused more than USD500 million (2018 USD) in

damage – which equaled 90 percent of the country’s GDP. Prior to Maria’s landfall, Dominica was still

recovering from Erika’s flood impact.

Roseau, Dominica (Source: AFP)

Source: IRIN


Hurricane Maria 12

In an Initial Post-Disaster Needs Assessment, conducted by the World Bank, the United Nations, the

Caribbean Development Bank, the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank and the European Union in

September 2017 it was revealed that the total direct damage inflicted in Dominica amounted to at least

XCD2.51 billion (USD931 million). Further indirect losses in agriculture, tourism and other sectors

amounted to an estimated XCD1.0 billion (USD382 million), bringing the preliminary total estimate of

damage to nearly USD1.4 billion, or 167 percent of the island’s GDP (USD525 million). Additional

assessments were ongoing by the aforementioned organizations, with a more complete detailed

summary to help assess the sustainability of the nation’s development goals.

A summary of damage and losses per sector, as provided in the executive summary of the initial

assessment, is provided in the chart below. The highest direct damage occurred on residential property

and on infrastructure. Losses can be defined as lost economic value of goods and services due to

business interruption, lost revenue, decreased number of tourists coming to the country, etc. The highest

indirect losses are expected in agriculture, as Maria’s impacts will likely affect the sector in the long-term

due to a combination of factors, including lost yields, damaged or destroyed equipment, temporary loss of

workforce and high cost of recovery.

Death toll: 31+ dead; 34+ missing

Economic loss: Billions USD (preliminary: USD1.4 billion)

Insured Loss: USD19.3 million (partial; Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility payment)

55

2

30

70

20

354

74

11

5

182

33

24

48

19

3

125

1

0

7

71

29

3

7

3

53

33

40

8

3

1

Agriculture

Fisheries

Forestry

Commerce

Tourism

Housing

Education

Health

Culture

Transport

Electricity

Water and Sanitation

Telecommunication

Airports and Ports

Disaster Risk Management

Pro

ductive S

ecto

rS

ocia

l S

ecto

rIn

frastr

uctu

re

Damages (Direct) Losses (Lost Economic Value) (USD millions)


Hurricane Maria 13

French Caribbean (Guadeloupe & Martinique)

Power outages across Guadeloupe in the aftermath of

Maria affected some 80,000 people – 40 percent of the

country’s population. At least two people were killed while

two others were listed as missing following the capsizing

of their boat near La Desirade Island, east of the main

island of Guadeloupe. Extensive damage to roofs was

reported along with significant damage to vegetation in

Marie-Galante, La Desirade, and Les Santes. Several

areas of flooding were also reported in the aftermath of

Maria across the island, particularly in and around the

southern town of Basse-Terre.

Severe damage was reported to the agriculture sector as banana crops were decimated. Production of

the crop dropped to zero following the passage of Maria and was expected to remain at that level until

May 2018. Production for 2018 was forecast to account for just one-third of normal production. Total

economic damage to agriculture alone was listed at EUR50 million (USD62 million).

According to preliminary estimates of the French Ministry of Economy, the total economic loss on

Guadeloupe were minimally listed at EUR100 million (USD120 million), but expected to be higher.

Maria skirted the island of Martinique with the center of

the eye located approximately 25 miles (40 kilometers) off

the island’s coast. At least two people were injured.

Immediately following the passage of the storm, damage

surveys conducted by local Civil Security revealed that the

damage in Martinique was “minor” and “insignificant”.

Nevertheless 70,000 homes were left without power and

50,000 were deprived of water supply on the island. The

majority of those affected were in the communes of

Morne-Rouge and Gros-Morne.

Similarly to Guadeloupe, significant damage was reported to the agriculture sector as 70 percent of the

banana crop was badly affected. In the immediate aftermath of Maria, production of the crop dropped to

zero and was expected to remain at that level until May 2018. Production for 2018 was forecast to

account for just one-third of normal production. Total economic damage to agriculture was listed at

EUR35 million (USD44 million).

The French Insurance Federation (FFA) noted in early November, that 16,600 claims had been filed in

both Guadeloupe and Martinique, amounting to a total insured loss of at least EUR80 million (USD94

million). The agency noted that the total loss is likely to be revised upwards.

Death toll: 4 dead or missing

Economic loss: Hundreds of millions USD, including USD100 million to the agriculture sector alone

Insured Loss: USD94 million (16,600 claims)

Basse-Terre, Guadeloupe (Source: Reuters)

Fort-de-France, Martinique (Source: AFP)


Hurricane Maria 14

Greater Antilles

U.S. & British Virgin Islands

Maria’s eyewall passed directly over the island of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Severe damage was

sustained. Communications across St. Croix, St. John, St. Thomas, and Water Island were down and

widespread power outages were also noted. Photos that did emerge from the territory indicated severe

flooding had occurred on St. Thomas while multiple homes had sustained extensive damage on St. Croix.

Images from St. Croix also showed extensive damage to vegetation and to the electrical grid. Many roads

were unpassable.

After the storm’s passage, the Governor of the

U.S. Virgin Islands placed a 24-hour curfew on

all four islands of the archipelago in order to

expedite relief and rescue operations.

The British Virgin Islands were also impacted by

Maria, and according to local residents, the

storm destroyed much of what was left by Irma

just weeks prior. Communication and power

outages hampered relief efforts.

Across the islands of St. Thomas and St. John damage was described as “catastrophic”. At least three

confirmed fatalities were reported: two on St. Thomas and one on St. John. One of the deaths on St.

Thomas was reported in Anna’s Retreat and was attributed to drowning while the other was as the result

of a landslide which struck the victim’s home in Estate Frenchman’s Bay. Among the buildings severely

damaged were the Schneider Regional Medical Center and a fire station. Multiple homes and buildings

sustained severe damage, many of which were destroyed. In total, the combined damage toll of homes

and businesses from both Irma and Maria was roughly 18,500.

Reports suggested that up to 70 percent of all buildings on St. Croix were damaged or destroyed,

including at least two schools that were levelled. Fallen trees and power lines were widely reported while

flash flooding and coastal flooding also caused significant damage. The hardest-hit islands were

uninhabitable for weeks, and in some instances, months.

Death toll: 3 dead; 4 missing

Economic Loss: USD2.0+ billion

Insured Loss: USD700 million

Flooding in St. Thomas (Source: U.S. Virgin Islands Government)


Hurricane Maria 15

Puerto Rico

Maria made its second landfall in Puerto Rico in the morning hours of September 20, bringing life-

threatening wind, storm surge and very heavy rainfall. Data from the National Weather Service indicated

that more than 80 percent of Puerto Rico received at least 10.0 inches (254 millimeters) of rainfall. A peak

rainfall total of 37.90 inches (963 millimeters) was recorded at Caguas, making Maria the wettest storm to

affect Puerto Rico since 1956 when Tropical Depression Fifteen in 1970 brought 41.70 inches (1,059

millimeters) of rain to Jayuya.

Prior to the arrival of Maria, more than 13,000 residents were evacuated to emergency shelters across

the island. The government of Puerto Rico officially listed the death toll at 55, including 26 direct fatalities

and 29 indirect fatalities. They additionally listed that 60 people were missing. Officials later reported that

472 more deaths occurred in Puerto Rico during the month of September 2017 compared to September

2016 leading many to speculate that Maria’s death toll was actually much higher. Several more people

were injured as tremendous wind gusts and excessive rainfall caused substantial flooding.

In the immediate aftermath of landfall, Maria prompted a country-wide power blackout – 100 percent of

the territory – as it decimated the power grid and destroyed telecommunication towers. It should be noted

that prior to Maria’s arrival, approximately 70,000 of the island’s 3.4 million residents remained without

power after Hurricane Irma grazed the country on September 6. The Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority

(PREPA) reported that much of the country was expected to remain without power for up to six months

(or longer) as the damage Maria inflicted to the grid was so severe. According to reports from PREPA, the

damage inflicted was historic and every part of the system was affected from transmission towers to

hydro-electric dams. They additionally noted that they had lost approximately 80 percent of their

transmission and distribution infrastructure.

Two weeks after the storm, on October 4, it was

reported that 95 percent of electricity customers

remained without power and 55 percent of the

population did not have access to clean drinking water

supplies. While power and water restoration occurred,

it was gradual in reaching all customers across the

island. As of late February 2018, roughly 20 percent –

or 253,000+ customers – remained without electricity.

At least 60 percent of residents were also without

access to clean water at the event’s peak, though most

water service had been restored. Guayama, Puerto Rico (Source: Reuters)

Damage to buildings and electrical grid (Source: Puerto Rico Governor)


Hurricane Maria 16

Structural Damage

Structural damage was substantial across the entire island.

While most of the impacts resulted from wind-related

damage, there were also a notable percentage of structures

impacted by coastal flooding and inland riverine and flash

flooding. Puerto Rico, which had been severely affected by

an extended financial crisis well prior to Maria’s landfall, was

already marked by a significant portion of structures built

illegally and not to code. An extended study by The Miami

Herald in February 2018 highlighted that 44 percent of the

Puerto Rican population lived at or below the poverty level.

Given this reality, many homes had been constructed very

poorly and stood no chance against Maria’s high-end

Category 4 wind speeds at the time of landfall.

Statistics from the Puerto Rican government indicated that at least 250,000 homes had been severely

damaged, including 70,000 of those listed as destroyed. It was anticipated that final statistics would

indicate more than 300,000 homes with major damage. FEMA noted that at least 60,000 homes had roof

damage.

Despite new building code requirements in 2011 mandating that structures be built to withstand winds of

up to 140 mph (220 kph), the reality is that most homes were constructed under the previous code –

which required that structures be able to withstand winds of up to 125 mph (205 kph). Maria made landfall

with estimated sustained wind speeds of 155 mph (250 kph). It has been reported that as many as one

million homes in Puerto Rico – or half of the entire home building stock – had been built illegally and

without proper permits. Given Maria’s intensity and the reality of the poor construction of so many

structures, this enhanced the scope of structural damage in many communities.

Puerto Rico’s governor requested at least

USD31 billion to help repair and rebuild

homes in the territory, though The Miami

Herald study highlighted that many residents

in the poorest communities had rebuilt their

homes on their own using the same materials

as before (such as zinc roofing).

However, it is worth noting that many parts of

Puerto Rico, including San Juan, had many

homes and structures built to code that

performed very well. A sizeable portion of

Puerto Rico’s residential building stock

includes reinforced concrete bunker-type construction. This type of construction is known to be well-

performing during high intensity wind events, and it was confirmed during Maria.

During a damage survey of the island, Impact Forecasting determined that the only cases in which

concrete bunker homes incurred damage was when wood-frame or unreinforced masonry rooms or

porches were added. Other cases included when residents were not able to afford paying for an entire

concrete home and mixed other less reliable building materials not up to code. Commercial structures in

Puerto Rico are primarily built with reinforced concrete or reinforced masonry, and did well in Maria.

Poor home construction (Source: Impact Forecasting)

Well performing concrete bunker constructed home (Source: Impact Forecasting)


Hurricane Maria 17

Wind-driven damage was most substantial among residential properties given the previously cited

construction revelations. A separate Reuters study in February 2018 highlighted that just 344,000

occupied homes in Puerto Rico had mortgages. This is out of more than 1.2 million total occupied homes

on the island. U.S. Census Bureau data indicated that another 330,000 homes were vacant in 2016 as

the island’s population continued to decline while facing a severe financial crisis.

Due to hazard insurance only being required

to homeowners who have a mortgage, this

meant that a majority of residents did not own

any type of hazard policy for protection against

disaster. It also further highlighted the

excessive number of illegally built homes.

Independent studies have found that legal

home construction of new buildings fell from

16,000 in 2004 to less than 2,500 in 2017.

These statistics only provide additional

background as to why the vast majority of the

insured loss from Maria in Puerto Rico was

incurred by the commercial sector.

Among the hardest-hit areas from a wind perspective during Maria came all along the eastern and

southern Puerto Rican coast where landfall occurred. Some of the worst damage was noted in the

eastern towns of Humacao, Yabucoa, Naguabo, Fajardo, Juncos, San Lorenzo, Ceiba, Cataño, Aguada,

and Caguas – though virtually every community on the island incurred some level of damage or direct

impact from the storm.

Specific damage examples included in Aguada, which was located on the western shore of Puerto Rico,

where more than 8,000 homes were completely destroyed in the municipality. Similar affects were noted

in the coastal city of Cataño, where local officials noted more than 360 homes destroyed in a singular

neighborhood alone (Juana Matos). Similar tales of destruction were cited across the entire island.

Additional damage of note occurred to the famed Arecibo Observatory radio telescope. While damage

was not as bad as initially feared, the 305-meter-wide dish – the second largest radio telescope in the

world – lost some reflective panels and most of a 29-meter-long antenna. Arecibo is notable for observing

stars, exoplanets, asteroids, and searching for signals from extraterrestrial activity since the 1960s.

Water Damage

Beyond the significant wind impacts, there was also coastal and inland flooding in many locations. Maria’s

large rainbands dropped tremendous amounts of rainfall that led to several rivers rapidly swelling. The

National Weather Service issued flash flood warnings for the entire island of Puerto Rico. Both the Rio

Grande de Arecibo and the Rio de la Plata crested at record levels. Data from the United States

Geological Survey showed that 53 out of 65 river gauges in Puerto Rico were at or above flood stage. Of

this total, 30 reached or exceeded major flood stage while 13 matched or exceeded their all-time record

levels including the Rio Culebrinas, Rio Gurabo, Rio Grande de Manati, Rio Cibuco, and Rio Guanajibo.

The Guajataca Dam, constructed in 1929 to create Lago de Guajataca, experienced a failure as a large

fissure (34 inches (86.4 centimeters) in length) appeared. Water was channeled down a spillway to

relieve pressure on the dam, and 70,000 downstream residents were forced to evacuate as they feared

the dam’s failure was imminent. It was later confirmed that the dam had not been inspected since 2013.

Billboard collapse onto abandoned home (Source: Impact Forecasting)


Hurricane Maria 18

The graphics below show examples of flood damage and river gauge station heights during Maria.

Selected hydrograms from Puerto Rico (Source: USGS)

Flooding in Cataño, Puerto Rico (Source: AFP) Guajataca Dam (Source: El Nuevo Día)


Hurricane Maria 19

Additional Information

More than 30 homes were severely damaged or destroyed on the island of Culebra. Damage to the

electricity grid and other infrastructure was so severe that the island is expected to remain without

electricity and portable water supplies for at least a few weeks. In the aftermath of landfall, media reports

showed large piles of debris and extensive vegetation damage, including numerous downed trees. The

nearby island of Vieques was similarly devastated. At the event’s peak, more than 9,000 inhabitants were

cut off from electricity and any communication channels after extensive impacts were recorded to homes

and infrastructure.

Death toll: Official: 55 dead; 60 missing. Unofficial: Hundreds+ dead

Economic Loss: ~USD62 billion

Insured Loss: ~USD26 billion

Dominican Republic

Nearly 10,000 people were evacuated and all of the country’s major ports were closed in advance of

Maria which prompted widespread flooding in the Dominican Republic.

Five fatalities were reported from the Dominican Republic, while 26,000 were displaced due to

widespread flooding that was caused by Maria’s torrential rainfall. Local Emergency Operations Center

noted that 57 communities were cut off from the outside world, following floods and landslides. According

to preliminary damage assessments, the hurricane caused damage on 14 bridges and numerous

highways. At least 188 homes were destroyed and 861 more were severely damaged. In total, 8,856

homes were reported to be flooded. Nearly a million inhabitants of the country were without water supply

as of September 25. At least 350,000 people were left without power throughout the country.

Damage on infrastructure was preliminary estimated by local authorities at USD63 million. The

agricultural sector was severely impacted. First damage estimates from banana producers were pegged

at USD21 million.

Death toll: 5

Economic loss: USD63 million

Haiti

Maria’s torrential rains caused severe flooding in several locations in Haiti. According to assessments by

the Ministry of Interior, three people were killed as a result of the storm’s passage. Total economic loss is

not expected to be significant.

Death toll: 3

Economic loss: TBD


Hurricane Maria 20

0%

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St. John St. Croix St. Thomas

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20-Sep 4-Oct 18-Oct 1-Nov 15-Nov 29-Nov 13-Dec 27-Dec 10-Jan 24-Jan 7-Feb 21-Feb

Puerto Rico

Energy Impacts

Electricity

In Dominica, 75 percent of the network infrastructure was estimated to be damaged. An estimated 80 to

90 percent of transformers on the islands were beyond repair. Several power generation stations reported

damage due to wind, landslide or flooding. Damage on the grid and lost revenues were estimated at

approximately USD67 million. It will take at least USD81 million to facilitate the restoration of the network.

More than 80 percent of the island’s residents remained without electricity more than five months after

Maria’s landfall. Additionally, at least 43 water systems were damaged in Dominica at the peak of the

event. This severely limited water access, and as of February 2018, only 31 had been repaired – leaving

26 percent of the country without direct water access.

The electricity grids of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands were virtually decimated. Immediately after

the storm, close to 100% of power supply was down on all of the main islands. It is worth noting that the

blackout was prolonged and significant number of customers was still without power even months after

Maria swept through the region. At the time of this writing in February 2018, hundreds of thousands

continue to endure five-month long outage. Total number of power outages in USVI and Puerto Rico can

be seen in the charts below.


Hurricane Maria 21

Petroleum Ports

All major petroleum-importing ports in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands suffered prolonged closure

and restrictions continued through October. Yabucoa Port with an average import of 38,000 barrels per

day, which suffered direct hit by Maria, remained closed until October 1. Similarly, port in Ponce opened

on October 1. The U.S. Department of Energy reported significant damage in the port of Guayanilla.

By early October, the situation has stabilized as most of the petroleum ports in the region were open with

only some restrictions, including the limitation of all operation to daylight time. Authorities worked to

ensure the delivery of fuel for generators in critical facilities.

Source: NOAA/NASA


Hurricane Maria 22

Transportation Impacts

Airports & Airlines

Both airports located in Dominica sustained damage. At Douglas Charles Airport, the terminal building

was flooded and damage occurred to security, communication and navigation equipment. At Canefield

Airport, the terminal building lost part of its roof and the navigation tower was severely damaged. Apart

from direct damage, losses due to lost revenue are expected are expected to mount as the tourism

industry declines.

Hurricane Maria caused considerable damage to the island’s main airport in San Juan, the busiest airport

in the Caribbean. For several days, the airport was not able to operate due to damage on its

infrastructure, including navigation, communications and fuel systems. Hundreds of passengers were

stranded at the airport for several days in hopes to leave the island. Full operation at the airport did not

fully resume until October 4, 2017.

Roadways

Widespread damage to roadways, bridges and adjacent structures in Dominica resulted in direct

economic damage of at least USD182 million. After the event, majority of local roads were covered by

large amounts of debris, trees and dozens of landslides. On many places, road infrastructure was flooded

and swept away by swollen rivers, which had massive erosive potential due to large amounts of debris

and deposits. At least six major bridges sustained considerable damage. Number of vehicles that were

damaged or destroyed on the island was preliminary estimated between 8 and 14 percent.

Infrastructure damage in Puerto Rico was heavy and widespread. According to initial assessments, there

were at least 1,500 instances of damaged roadways and bridges across the island and the cost of repairs

were estimated to exceed USD240 million.

Railways

Tren Urbano, the only functional railway service in Puerto Rico, which operates in San Juan and nearby

towns and serves thousands of residents, was out of service due to structural damage to several stations

and to the energy infrastructure. Majority of the railway route resumed operation on December 19.No

railways are located in Dominica.

Damaged road in Roseau, Dominica (Source: AFP) Damaged road in Toa Alta, Puerto Rico (Source: AFP)


Hurricane Maria 23

Marine Industry

All major port facilities in Dominica were affected by Hurricane Maria. Buildings located in the Woodridge

Bay Port, including the main office building, were damaged. Further damage occurred in Roseau Cruise

Ship Berth, Portsmouth Port and Cabrits Cruise Ship Bert.

Maria caused damage to San Juan, Puerto Rico’s main port which led to a temporary closure for several

weeks. However, the port was reopened in October 2017 and cruise ships were again able to arrive. In

terms of recreational boats, the U.S. Coast Guard reported in February 2018 that it had used cranes to

remove more than 750 sunken or damaged boats from the water, beaches, or mangroves. This total

represented only a fraction of the assumed total number of boats impacted during the event.

Tourism Industry

According to an official report by the Government of Dominica, at least 666 out of 909 hotel rooms located

on the island were damaged. More than a half will likely be unavailable a year post-landfall. Total direct

damage to the tourism sector was preliminarily estimated at USD20 million, however revenue losses

resulting from the destruction, dysfunctional infrastructure and transport services and recovery costs will

amount to at least USD71 million.

Monthly data provided by the Puerto Rico Tourism Company (PRTC), a governmental body in charge of

tourism-related activities, suggests a dramatic decrease in number of tourists coming to the island after

Maria’s impact in September 2017. After a decade of steady annual growth, Puerto Rico experienced a

drop by more than 15 percent of hotel registrations in comparison with the previous year. 2017 thus

became the year with the lowest number of registrations since 2011. The drop is even more striking when

only the data for the fourth quarter are taken into account. Q4 2017 was the worst fourth quarter for

Puerto Rico tourism industry since 1985, considering total number of registrations, as the agency noted

an almost 70-percent reduction since 2016. Number of local residents who registered in accommodation

facilities in Q4 2017 was the lowest since 1971. Moreover, October 2017 was the worst October since

1965.

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Hurricane Maria 24

Environmental Impacts

Coastal Erosion

The mainland United States was spared from a direct impact of the hurricane. Nevertheless, Maria

triggered notable impacts along the coastline of North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland as it undertook a

sharp turn eastward near Cape Hatteras, maintaining Category 1 intensity. Large waves and storm surge

generated by the storm affected large portions of the shoreline. Prior to the storm’s passage, the United

States Geological Survey suggested that about two thirds of beaches from North Carolina to Maryland

were expected to be impacted by dune erosion and a small portion by overwash.

Flora & Fauna

Hurricane Maria dealt a serious blow to the environment of Dominica, notably to its forests, which are well

protected and considered one of the biggest assets of the local eco-friendly tourism industry. Large

swaths of forest were leveled or defoliated due to the extreme winds. The country is home to an endemic

parrot called Amazona imperialis (also known as Sisserou), which is considered to be the island’s symbol

and is also featured on the national flag. After the storm, there were concerns that the population of the

endangered species might lose part of its natural habitat and decline.

All six of the United States national parks in the Caribbean were closed in the aftermath of Hurricane

Maria. The affected parks were Virgin Islands National Park in Saint John, Virgin Islands Coral Reef

National Monument in Saint John, Christiansted National Historic Site in Saint Croix, Buck Island Reef

National Monument in Saint Croix, Salt River Bay National Historical Park and Ecological Reserve in

Saint Croix, and San Juan National Historic Site in Puerto Rico.

In Puerto Rico the El Yunque National Forest, the United States’ only tropical rainforest, was severely

damaged by Maria. Officials at the International Institute of Tropical Forestry reported that the majority of

trees had been defoliated leaving much of the 28,000-acre (11,330-hectare) forest bare. The forest was

home to some 240 tree species of which 23 were unique to Puerto Rico. The forest’s bird population was

also affected by Maria: dozens of blackbirds and pearly-eyed thrashers were known to have been killed

while the Puerto Rican Parrot Recovery Program expressed concerns over the fate of the endangered

Puerto Rican Parrot which is only found in Puerto Rico and is the only native parrot species in the United

States.


Hurricane Maria 25

Historical Comparison

Dominica

Maria was the most powerful and the costliest tropical system to ever impact the island nation of

Dominica and the only Category 5 hurricane to make landfall there. However, the island faced similar

destruction for the third time in the last 40 years. Hurricane David (1979) made direct hit at southern tip of

Dominica as a powerful, Category 4 hurricane. It caused heavy damage on Dominica, mainly due to a

serious underestimation, unpreparedness and wrong forecasts of the event that initially put the storm’s

track near Barbados. At least 56 people died and three-quarters of the population were left homeless and

the catastrophe prompted influx of foreign aid. The whole agricultural sector, which was comprised mainly

of banana plantations, was destroyed.

Although Erika (2015) impacted Dominica as a weak tropical storm, torrential rainfall associated with it

caused widespread flooding and landslides on the island. The devastation caused by the relentless rain,

which included thousands of damaged homes, resulted in economic cost of nearly USD500 million.

Maria (2017) caused losses that were estimated to reach minimally USD1.3 billion. As the agricultural

sector constitutes one of the pillars of the island’s export, its vulnerability to repeated extreme weather

events affects the whole economy. Despite many successful economic reforms, Dominica retains a

relatively low GDP per capita.

Puerto Rico

Hurricane Maria was the most powerful storm to make landfall in Puerto Rico since 1932, when a

Category 4 storm, known as the San Ciprian Hurricane, came ashore and caused extensive damage on

the island. The only known Category 5 landfall, most commonly referred to as the Okeechobee Hurricane,

came ashore only a few miles to the southwest of Maria’s landfall location near Yabucoa port. The storm,

which is also known in Puerto Rico as Huracán San Felipe II, caused widespread devastation, damaged

tens of thousands of homes and left at least 374 fatalities in its wake.

The only other major Hurricane to directly impact Puerto Rico in the last 100 years was 1989 Hurricane

Hugo. As it brushed off the southeastern tip of the island, it caused major damage to housing, businesses

and infrastructure, particularly in eastern regions. Hurricane George crossed the island in 1998 as a

Category 2 storm and caused exceptional impact.


Hurricane Maria 26

Impact Forecasting Reconnaissance Trip

Members of Aon Benfield’s Catastrophe Management and Impact Forecasting groups traveled to Puerto

Rico for an extended damage assessment from December 4-7, 2017. The surveys included visits to San

Juan and additional eastern communities such as Carolina, Luquillo, Fajardo, Ceiba, Humacao, Palmos

del Mar, Gurabo, and Juncos – among others.

Among the most notable findings:

1) Residential homes built to proper code often escaped with minimal damage. The most common

well-performing building type was of concrete construction with a bunker-style frame. However,

many homes outside of San Juan were built with non-code, wood-frame construction and/or

additions that suffered extensive, total loss damage.

2) Commercial properties were also prone to wind-related damage, but the loss was more

associated with roof or façade impacts. Most properties visited maintained their structural integrity

despite notable loss of shingles, storefronts or outdoor signage.

Concrete construction built to proper code (Source: Impact Forecasting) Failed add-on structure (Source: Impact Forecasting)

Storefront damage in Humacao (Source: Impact Forecasting) Storefront damage in Humacao (Source: Impact Forecasting)


Hurricane Maria 27

3) A significant portion of observed damage to singular and multi-unit commercial structures was

incurred due to water intrusion. In many instances, windows were shattered by high winds and

heavy rains led to inside water accumulation. With Puerto Rico’s warm and humid climate,

standing water led to major formation of mold on inside walls and contents. Additional water

intrusion resulted from roof damage and subsequent leakage.

4) The scope of infrastructure damage – roads, bridges, electrical grid, solar farms, wind farms –

was staggering across the island. The quality of infrastructure was already poor prior to Maria’s

arrival, and the intensity of the storm’s impacts left complete devastation. The damage will require

a complete rebuild of the energy-producing grids in Puerto Rico.

5) Even with the best construction, some roofs and façades struggled with wind speeds gusting in

excess of 160 mph (260 kph) – especially at elevated locations, where wind speeds are often one

category higher in intensity. Spanish tile roof shingles were entirely stripped bare in some cases.

Water leakage from roof (Source: Impact Forecasting) Standing water resulted in mold formation (Source: Impact Forecasting)

Example of electrical grid damage (Source: Impact Forecasting) Partial destruction to solar panel farm (Source: Impact Forecasting)

Spanish tile roof shingles stripped by winds (Source: Impact Forecasting) Spanish tile roof shingles stripped by winds (Source: Impact Forecasting)


Hurricane Maria 28

6) The biggest unknown regarding financial losses in the aftermath of Maria was the business

interruption component. Many businesses from a wide breadth of sectors – including retail,

hospitality, agriculture, energy, manufacturing, etc. – reported varying lengths of lost productivity

or revenue. In the case of direct physical damage leading to business interruption, many

instances involved high winds leading to roof damage or shattered windows that prompted

significant water damage. This required complete indoor repair and replacement of contents.

Additional damage incurred to infrastructure had secondary or tertiary effects to many sectors.

Many businesses informed during the survey that operations may not fully occur until a full

calendar year after Maria’s landfall.

7) Beyond wind impacts, many inland areas in Puerto Rico were subject to catastrophic flash flood,

riverine, and landslide damage. Given the island’s mountainous terrain, a substantial volume of

water cascaded down and turned small rivers and streams into raging torrents. This led to major

infrastructure damage and also swept through nearby homes and businesses.

Prolonged business shutdown (Source: Impact Forecasting) Broken windows led to water intrusion (Source: Impact Forecasting)

Remnant debris from river overflow (Source: Impact Forecasting) Riverine & flash flood damage debris (Source: Impact Forecasting)


Hurricane Maria 29

Impact Forecasting: Modeled Wind Result for Puerto Rico

The track of Hurricane Maria through the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico was reconstructed using the

preliminary best-track data from the National Hurricane Center’s Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

system (ATCF). The ATCF, developed by the US Naval Research Laboratory, is a computer based

application designed to automate and optimize the forecasting process of tropical cyclones. The NHC and

the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), among other institutes, are the operational users of the

ATCF.

The parameters utilized in the reconstruction included the position of hurricane eye (latitude and

longitude), minimum central pressure, forward speed, heading angle, and radius of maximum winds that

were reported in 6-hour increments. These hurricane parameters were imported into the wind field model

to calculate wind speeds. These wind speeds were next used in Impact Forecasting’s ELEMENTS

software program to estimate the potential insurable losses caused by the hurricane.

The Impact Forecasting wind field model is a spectral-based parametric model that solves equations of

motion by using the finite difference method. The wind field model has been calibrated, both spatially and

temporally, to the surface winds. The wind speed footprint, as modeled by Impact Forecasting, for

Hurricane Maria is presented below. This footprint has general agreements with the wind speed swath

from the NHC.

Impact Forecasting Modeled Loss Results

Based on the modeled results of Impact Forecasting’s wind model, it was determined that insurable

losses resulting from Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico would range between USD19 and 23 billion. Please

note that “insurable losses” does not indicate the total economic loss estimate, nor the insured loss

estimate. This only includes the value of properties (homes, businesses, vehicles) that are potentially

insured by the private market. It does not include additional damage to such things as infrastructure.

Source: Impact Forecasting


Hurricane Maria 30

Financial Losses

Hurricane Maria became of the costliest natural catastrophes ever recorded globally. With an aggregated

economic toll estimated around USD65 billion, it currently ranks as the eighth costliest natural

catastrophe, one place higher than Hurricane Irma. Insured losses, totaling to USD27 billion, place Maria

on the sixth place among the costliest events for the insurance industry. It also became the fourth

costliest tropical cyclone on record after Katrina (USD157 billion in 2018 US dollars), Harvey (USD100

billion) and Sandy (USD77 billion). From the insurance perspective, Maria ranks fifth after Hurricanes

Katrina, Harvey, Sandy, and Andrew when adjusting on an inflation-basis.

Maria caused devastating losses on several Caribbean islands. It became the costliest disaster to ever

strike Puerto Rico and the strongest storm since a Category 5 storm blasted the island in 1928, in an era

when total exposure was incomparable to today’s extent. Maria’s footprint was widespread and related to

all sectors and industries, with lasting effects on the economy, which struggled to cope given multiple

long-term issues and economic stagnation. Significant indirect economic loss is expected to linger as

many months after landfall, many areas have yet to fully return to normal. There are local concerns that

Maria may accentuate the economic crisis, which there are fears of further declines in the population.

These population decreases have been occurring throughout the 21st century.

Dominica, a small island nation in the Leeward Islands, suffered from the most devastating event in its

history, when Maria made landfall at its full strength as a Category 5 storm. The hurricane dealt a

substantial blow to the local economy, heavily dependent on agriculture and tourism. Long-term economic

and social impacts will result from the event. According to preliminary assessments, total economic loss

will reach approximately USD1.4 billion or 167 percent of the GDP; in a country with less than 75,000

inhabitants.

Further impacts were felt elsewhere, including the Virgin Islands archipelago, French Overseas territories

in Eastern Caribbean and on Hispaniola.


Hurricane Maria 31

Appendix A

In terms of tropical cyclone development, the official Atlantic Hurricane season runs from June 1 to

November 30 – though tropical cyclones have been known to develop during any month. As seen in the

graphics below, the most likely months for cyclogenesis are during the peak months of August,

September, and October. During these months, atmospheric and oceanic conditions are climatologically

the most conducive for cyclones being influenced and/or steered by a strong Atlantic ridge of high

pressure and/or by the advancement of strong troughs that dig into the central and eastern United States.

The caveat to cyclogenesis is, of course, the eventual track of storms that do develop. While greater

frequency of storms increases the chance of a landfall, the reality is that it only takes one landfalling

storm to entirely change the perception of how active a season is to the general public – regardless of

how many storms actually make landfall in a single season.


Hurricane Maria 32

Appendix B

Costliest Atlantic Basin Hurricanes

Atlantic Basin

Rank

Storm Name

Affected Locations Economic Loss

1

(2018 USD) Insured Loss

2

(2018 USD)

1 Hurricane Katrina (2005) United States 156 billion 81 billion

2 Hurricane Harvey (2017) United States 100 billion 30 billion

3 Hurricane Sandy (2012) U.S., Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola 81 billion 32 billion

4 Hurricane Maria (2017) Puerto Rico, Caribbean 65 billion 27 billion

5 Hurricane Irma (2017) U.S., Cuba, Caribbean 55 billion 23 billion

6 Hurricane Andrew (1992) U.S., Bahamas 47 billion 28 billion

7 Hurricane Ike (2008) U.S., Jamaica, Hispaniola, Cuba 43 billion 21 billion

8 Hurricane Wilma (2005) U.S., Jamaica, Haiti, Mexico, Cuba 34 billion 15 billion

9 Hurricane Ivan (2004) U.S., Hispaniola, Caribbean, Bahamas 32 billion 12 billion

10 Hurricane Rita (2005) U.S., Caribbean 23 billion 11 billion

1 Economic losses included those sustained to residential and commercial properties, automobiles, infrastructure, electrical grids, public buildings,

business interruption, etc. 2 Insured losses include those sustained by private industry and government entities such as the US National Flood Insurance Program.


Hurricane Maria 33

Appendix C

United States Emergency Declarations

Virgin Islands

Emergency Declaration made on 09/18/2017.

Districts: Saint Croix, Saint John, and Saint Thomas.

Puerto Rico

Emergency Declaration made on 09/18/2017.

Municipalities: Adjuntas, Aguada, Aguadilla, Aguas Buenas, Aibonito, Añasco, Arecibo, Arroyo,

Barceloneta, Barranquitas, Bayamón, Cabo Rojo, Caguas, Camuy, Canóvanas, Carolina, Cataño, Cayey,

Ceiba, Ciales, Cidra, Coamo, Comerío, Corozal, Culebra, Dorado, Fajardo, Florida, Guánica, Guayama,

Guayanilla, Guaynabo, Gurabo, Hatillo, Hormigueros, Humacao, Isabela, Jayuya, Juana Díaz, Juncos,

Lajas, Lares, Las Marías, Las Piedras, Loíza, Luquillo, Manatí, Maricao, Maunabo, Mayagüez, Moca,

Morovis, Naguabo, Naranjito, Orocovis, Patillas, Peñuelas, Ponce, Quebradillas, Rincón, Río Grande,

Sabana Grande, Salinas, San Germán, San Juan, San Lorenzo, San Sebastián, Santa Isabel, Toa Alta,

Toa Baja, Trujillo Alto, Utuado, Vega Alta, Vega Baja, Vieques, Villalba, Yabucoa, and Yauco.

United States Major Disaster Declarations

Virgin Islands

Major Disaster Declaration made on 09/20/2017.

Districts: Saint Croix, Saint John, and Saint Thomas.

Puerto Rico

Major Disaster Declaration made on 09/20/2017.

Municipalities: Adjuntas, Aguada, Aguadilla, Aguas Buenas, Aibonito, Añasco, Arecibo, Arroyo,

Barceloneta, Barranquitas, Bayamón, Cabo Rojo, Caguas, Camuy, Canóvanas, Carolina, Cataño, Cayey,

Ceiba, Ciales, Cidra, Coamo, Comerío, Corozal, Culebra, Dorado, Fajardo, Florida, Guánica, Guayama,

Guayanilla, Guaynabo, Gurabo, Hatillo, Hormigueros, Humacao, Isabela, Jayuya, Juana Díaz, Juncos,

Lajas, Lares, Las Marías, Las Piedras, Loíza, Luquillo, Manatí, Maricao, Maunabo, Mayagüez, Moca,

Morovis, Naguabo, Naranjito, Orocovis, Patillas, Peñuelas, Ponce, Quebradillas, Rincón, Río Grande,

Sabana Grande, Salinas, San Germán, San Juan, San Lorenzo, San Sebastián, Santa Isabel, Toa Alta,

Toa Baja, Trujillo Alto, Utuado, Vega Alta, Vega Baja, Vieques, Villalba, Yabucoa, and Yauco.


Hurricane Maria 34

Appendix D

Glossary: Terms as defined by the National Hurricane Center

Advisory:

Official information issued by tropical cyclone warning centers describing all tropical cyclone watches and

warnings in effect along with details concerning tropical cyclone locations, intensity and movement, and

precautions that should be taken.

Best Track:

A subjectively-smoothed representation of a tropical cyclone's location and intensity over its lifetime. The

best track contains the cyclone's latitude, longitude, maximum sustained surface winds, and minimum sea-

level pressure at 6-hourly intervals. Best track positions and intensities, which are based on a post-storm

assessment of all available data, may differ from values contained in storm advisories.

Direct Hit:

A close approach of a tropical cyclone to a particular location. For locations on the left-hand side of a tropical

cyclone's track, a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to the cyclone's

radius of maximum wind. For locations on the right-hand side of the track, a direct hit occurs when the

cyclone passes to within a distance equal to twice the radius of maximum wind.

Eye:

The roughly circular area of comparatively light winds that encompasses the center of a severe tropical

cyclone. The eye is either completely or partially surrounded by the eyewall cloud.

Eyewall:

An organized band or ring of cumulonimbus clouds that surround the eye, or light-wind center of a tropical

cyclone.

Extratropical:

A term used in advisories and tropical summaries to indicate that a cyclone has lost its "tropical"

characteristics. The term implies both northward displacement of the cyclone and the conversion of the

cyclone's primary energy source from the release of latent heat of condensation to baroclinic (the

temperature contrast between warm and cold air masses) processes. Cyclones can become extratropical

and still retain winds of hurricane or tropical storm force.

Extratropical Cyclone:

A cyclone of any intensity for which the primary energy source is baroclinic, that is, results from the

temperature contrast between warm and cold air masses.

Gale Warning:

A warning of 1-minute sustained surface winds in the range 34 knots (39 mph (63 kph)) to 47 knots (54 mph

(87 kph)) inclusive, either predicted or occurring and not directly associated with tropical cyclones.

High Wind Warning:

A high wind warning is defined as 1-minute average surface winds of 35 knots (40 mph (64 kph)) or greater

lasting for 1 hour or longer, or winds gusting to 50 knots (58 mph (93 kph)) or greater regardless of duration

that are either expected or observed over land.

Hurricane:

A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind (using the US 1-minute average) is 64

knots (74 mph (119 kph) or more.


Hurricane Maria 35

Hurricane Warning: An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph (119 kph) or higher) are expected

somewhere within the specified area of a tropical, subtropical or post-tropical cyclone. The warning can

remain in effect when high water or a combination of high water and waves continue, even though winds

may be less than hurricane-force.

Hurricane Watch:

An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph (119 kph) or higher) are possible

within the specified area of a tropical, subtropical or post-tropical cyclone.

Indirect Hit:

Generally refers to locations that do not experience a direct hit from a tropical cyclone, but do experience

hurricane force winds (either sustained or gusts) or tides of at least 4.0 feet above normal.

Inundation:

The total water level that occurs on normally dry ground as a result of the storm tide, and is expressed in

terms of height above ground level.

Invest:

A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center is interested in collecting specialized data sets

and/or running model guidance. The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any

particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone.

Landfall:

The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a

tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be

experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Similarly, it is possible for a tropical cyclone to make

landfall and have its strongest winds remain over the water.

Major Hurricane:

A hurricane that is classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Post-Tropical Cyclone:

This term describes a cyclone that no longer possesses sufficient tropical characteristics to be considered a

tropical cyclone. Post-tropical cyclones can continue carrying heavy rains and high winds. Former tropical

cyclones that have become fully extratropical or remnant lows are two classes of post-tropical cyclones.

Radius of Maximum Winds:

The distance from the center of a tropical cyclone to the location of the cyclone's maximum winds. In well-

developed hurricanes, the radius of maximum winds is generally found at the inner edge of the eyewall.

Rapid Intensification:

An increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 knots (35 mph (55 kph)) in a

24-hour period.

Remnant Low:

A post-tropical cyclone that no longer possesses the convective organization required of a tropical cyclone,

and has maximum sustained winds of less than 34 knots (39 mph (63 kph)).

Storm Surge:

An abnormal rise in sea level accompanying a hurricane or other intense storm, and whose height is the

difference between the observed level of the sea surface and the level that would have occurred in the

absence of the cyclone. Storm surge is usually estimated by subtracting the normal or astronomic high tide

from the observed storm tide.

Storm Tide:

The actual level of sea water resulting from the astronomic tide combined with the storm surge.


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Storm Warning: A warning of 1-minute sustained surface winds of 48 knots (55 mph (88 kph)) or greater, predicted or

occurring, not directly associated with tropical cyclones.

Subtropical Cyclone:

A non-frontal low-pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. Like

tropical cyclones, they are non-frontal, synoptic-scale cyclones that originate over tropical or subtropical

waters, and have a closed surface wind circulation with a well-defined center. Unlike tropical cyclones,

subtropical cyclones derive a significant proportion of their energy from baroclinic sources, and are generally

cold-core in the upper troposphere, often being associated with an upper-level low or trough. In comparison

to tropical cyclones, these systems generally have a radius of maximum winds occurring relatively far from

the center and generally have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.

Subtropical Depression:

A subtropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the US 1-minute average)

is 33 knots (38 mph (62 kph)) or less.

Subtropical Storm:

A subtropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the US 1-minute average)

is 34 knots (39 mph (63 kph)) or more.

Tropical Cyclone:

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with

organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed,

a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and

heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere.

Tropical Depression:

A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the US 1-minute average) is

33 knots (38 mph (62 kph)) or less.

Tropical Disturbance:

A discrete tropical weather system of apparently organized convection originating in the tropics or

subtropics, having a non-frontal migratory character, and maintaining its identity for 24 hours or more.

Tropical Storm:

A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the US 1-minute average)

ranges from 34 knots (39 mph (63 kph)) to 63 knots (73 mph (118 kph)).

Tropical Storm Warning:

An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected somewhere

within the specified area within 36 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical or post-tropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Watch:

An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the

specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical or post-tropical cyclone.

Tropical Wave:

A trough or cyclonic curvature maximum in the trade-wind easterlies. The wave may reach maximum amplitude in the lower middle troposphere.


Hurricane Maria 37

Contact Information

Adam Podlaha

Head of Impact Forecasting

Aon Benfield Analytics

Impact Forecasting

+44.20.7522.3820

[email protected]

Siamak Daneshvaran

Head of Research & Development


Impact Forecasting

+1.312.381.5886

[email protected]

Anwesha Bhattacharya

Senior Analyst


Impact Forecasting

+ 91.080.6621.8575

[email protected]

Steve Bowen

Director / Meteorologist


Impact Forecasting

+1.312.381.5883

[email protected]

Michal Lörinc

Catastrophe Analyst


Impact Forecasting

+420.234.618.222

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]






Hurricane Maria 38

About Aon Benfield

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visit aonbenfield.com.

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information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact

Forecasting® does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented

at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used

to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be

accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no

official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances.

Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting®

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