Hurricane Florence Economic Impact - First Data · Overall Impact North Carolina Spending was down...

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Hurricane Florence

Economic Impact

First Data Information

and Analytics Solutions

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2

Executive Summary

Hurricane Florence Spending Highlights

(YoY Growth)

Top 3 Destinations For Coastal North Carolinians:

Charlotte Raleigh Greenville

Top 3 Destinations For Coastal South Carolinians:

Orlando Columbia Atlanta

Before Storm (Sept. 4–10) During Storm (Sept. 11–17) After Storm (Sept. 18–24)

North Carolina South Carolina North Carolina South Carolina North Carolina South Carolina

State Total +16.3% +19.9% -7.7% -11.2% +7.7% +9.5%

Highest Growth Gas +27.4% Leisure +30% Grocery 13.2% Retail +13.2% Grocery +22.8% Retail +33.1%

Lowest Growth Hotel -24.6% Hotel -11.4% Leisure -32.6% Leisure -38.0% Gas -6.4% Leisure -8.2%

North Carolina

YoY Change, by Week Overall Impact

North Carolina

Spending was down -7.7%

statewide during the week

Hurricane Florence hit.

The coastal counties of

North Carolina experienced

the steepest drop in spending,

down almost -60% during the

week of Sept. 11 – Sept. 17.

A record-setting evacuation

and significant storm damage

kept spending in coastal areas

depressed in the following week.

3

Spending

(All Categories) “Normal

Conditions”

Week

Before Storm

Week

of Storm

Week

After Storm

Zone 1 (Coastal) -0.8% 27.4% -58.6% -14.3%

Zone 2 -1.2% 31.1% -17.3% 10.9%

Zone 3 -1.5% 19.4% -16.4% 8.7%

Zone 4 3.1% 19.8% -7.0% 10.6%

All Other Counties (AOC) 0.2% 10.6% 5.2% 10.6%

North Carolina 0.6% 16.3% -7.7% 7.7%

Zones are defined at county level, and grouped by their proximity to the coast line. Zone 1 contains

only coastal counties. Zone 2 is comprised of counties which border Zone 1 counties. Zone 3 and

Zone 4 are further away from the coast, while All Other Counties are geographically the furthest west

in the state. Growth rates reflect aggregate spending across all tracked categories.

Source: First Data aggregated same-store spending data.

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3

AOC

Zone 4

Spending

(All Categories) “Normal

Conditions”

Week

Before Storm

Week

of Storm

Week

After Storm

Zone 1 (Coastal) 2.2% 39.9% -49.6% 3.6%

Zone 2 1.9% 24.9% -18.0% 17.2%

Zone 3 0.7% 25.4% -2.1% 15.2%

Zone 4 -1.7% 13.9% -3.2% 11.9%

All Other Counties (AOC) -0.3% 8.2% 12.6% 9.9%

South Carolina 0.4% 19.9% -11.2% 9.5%

South Carolina

YoY Change, by Week Overall Impact

South Carolina

Spending was down -11.2%

statewide during the week

Hurricane Florence hit.

Unlike North Carolina, the coastal

counties of South Carolina did not

receive a direct hit.

Although coastal spending declined

nearly 50% during the week of Sept.

11 – Sept. 17, recovery was much

swifter, and spending growth

returned to positive territory the

following week.

4

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3

AOC

Zone 4

Zones are defined at county level and grouped by their proximity to the coast line. Zone 1 contains

only coastal counties. Zone 2 is comprised of counties which border Zone 1 counties. Zone 3 and

Zone 4 are further away from the coast, while All Other Counties are geographically the furthest west

in the state. Growth rates reflect aggregate spending across all tracked categories.


5

Week before storm

Week of storm

Week after storm

* Charlotte, North Myrtle Beach, and Virginia Beach/Newport News MSAs cross state lines.

** Unincorporated Areas reflect commerce happening in rural areas and other municipalities that do not

fall within the boundaries of a defined MSA.


Performance by MSA

North Carolina

Driven by an influx of evacuees

from coastal areas, inland metro

areas fared better during the storm.

However, some inland metro

areas in proximity to rivers

also experienced record levels

of flooding.

+40% -70%

Spending Growth YoY

6

Week before storm

Week of storm

Week after storm

Performance by MSA

South Carolina

Driven by an influx of evacuees

from coastal areas, inland metro

areas fared better during the storm.

However, some inland metro

areas in proximity to rivers

also experienced record levels

of flooding.

+60% -70%

Spending Growth YoY


** Unincorporated Areas reflect commerce happening in rural areas and other municipalities that do not

fall within the boundaries of a defined MSA.


Performance by MSA

7

Week

Before Storm

Week

of Storm

Week

After Storm

Charlotte * 9.4% -2.7% 8.4%

Raleigh 21.5% -7.9% 10.3%

Unincorporated Areas ** 18.2% -4.3% 8.9%

Greensboro-High Point 17.0% 5.6% 12.1%

Winston-Salem 13.6% 7.4% 9.6%

Asheville 3.7% 12.3% 10.5%

Durham-Chapel Hill 20.9% -5.6% 14.3%

Fayetteville 19.8% -23.8% 14.8%

Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton 15.6% 21.6% 16.1%

Wilmington 23.7% -65.5% -31.3%

Jacksonville 28.1% -69.0% -13.8%

Burlington 1.4% -9.6% -2.8%

Greenville 28.7% -18.6% 15.9%

North Myrtle Beach (NC) * 34.8% -60.7% -10.4%

Rocky Mount 20.8% -4.1% 9.3%

Goldsboro 23.3% -26.1% 11.0%

New Bern 29.6% -47.5% 4.6%

Virginia Beach-Newport News * 21.5% -47.1% -4.0%

North Carolina 16.3% -7.7% 7.7%


** Unincorporated Areas reflect commerce happening in rural areas and other municipalities that do not fall within the boundaries of a defined MSA.

*** Best recovery weighted by absolute dollar spend across MSAs within the state.


North Carolina

Week of the storm

Steepest drop in spending

Jacksonville - 69%

Wilmington - 65%

Strongest spending growth

Hickory +22%

Asheville +12%

Week after the storm

Best recovery ***

Fayetteville +15%

Greenville +16%

Spending (All Categories)

YoY Change, by Week

Performance by MSA

8

Week

Before Storm

Week

of Storm

Week

After Storm

Columbia, SC 14.2% -5.2% 11.8%

Greenville, SC 8.3% 13.9% 11.1%

Charleston-North Charleston 35.6% -41.8% 12.3%

Unincorporated Areas ** 14.4% -0.2% 12.3%

Myrtle Beach-Conway 32.7% -65.4% -7.9%

Charlotte * 8.2% 9.2% 5.6%

Spartanburg 6.5% 12.4% 10.4%

Hilton Head / Beaufort 57.8% -17.4% 9.4%

Florence 39.5% -2.7% 21.4%

Augusta-Richmond County 9.5% 13.5% 12.1%

Sumter 17.0% 7.3% 15.7%

South Carolina 19.9% -11.2% 9.5%


** Unincorporated Areas reflect commerce happening in rural areas and other municipalities that do not fall

within the boundaries of a defined MSA.

*** Best recovery weighted by absolute dollar spend across MSAs within the state.


South Carolina

Week of the storm

Steepest drop in spending

Myrtle Beach - 65%

Charleston - 42%

Strongest spending growth

Greenville +14%

Augusta +13%

Week after the storm

Best recovery ***

Charleston +12%

Florence +21%

Spending (All Categories)

YoY Change, by Week

Statewide Trends

9

Grocery was the only tracked

industry in North Carolina that

remained in positive territory

statewide during and after the storm.

In South Carolina, only Retail was

able to sustain growth during and

after the storm. The surge of

spending activity in un-impacted

areas of each state served as a

counter-balance in these industries.

Both states were able to rebound in

the week after the storm, although

some individual industries continued

to struggle, especially those relying

on tourism.

Selected Categories

YoY Change, by Week

Week

Before Storm

Week

of Storm

Week

After Storm

Grocery 25.5% 13.2% 22.8%

Retail 5.6% -17.5% 4.2%

Gasoline 27.4% -4.5% -6.4%

Services 11.6% -22.2% 4.6%

Restaurants 7.2% -21.2% 3.6%

Hotel -24.6% -14.3% 12.1%

Leisure 12.4% -32.6% -0.5%

Travel 21.6% -2.2% 10.4%

State total 16.3% -7.7% 7.7%

Week

Before Storm

Week

of Storm

Week

After Storm

15.2% -21.6% 6.7%

23.5% 13.2% 33.1%

21.0% -4.3% -0.9%

23.2% -23.3% 2.7%

22.6% -20.4% 5.5%

-11.4% -30.8% -7.7%

30.0% -38.0% -8.2%

22.0% 9.9% 20.4%

19.9% -11.2% 9.5%

North Carolina South Carolina


10

Spend Distribution

North Carolina

In both states, Gasoline Station

spending was a smaller portion

of total spend in the week after

the storm, possibly due to short

supplies afterward.

Grocery consistently had the

largest share of wallet in

North Carolina.

20% 20% 14%

41% 42%

42%

1% 2%

2%

9% 9% 10%

19% 18% 20%

10% 8% 10%

Week Before Storm Week of Storm Week After Storm

Services

Retail

Restaurants

Travel & Leisure

Hotel

Grocery

Gasoline

North Carolina

Zones 1, 2, 3


Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3

AOC

Zone 4

11

Spend Distribution

South Carolina

In both states, Gasoline Station

spending was a smaller portion of

total spend in the week after the

storm, possibly due to short

supplies afterward.

Retail share of wallet expanded in

South Carolina post storm, as did

spending on Professional Services.

South Carolina

Zones 1, 2, 3

21% 21% 16%

24% 27%

24%

2% 3%

2%

13% 13%

15%

26% 24% 28%

11% 11% 13%

Week Before Storm Week of Storm Week After Storm

Services

Retail

Restaurants

Travel & Leisure

Hotel

Grocery

Gasoline

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3

AOC

Zone 4


Image: Nasa

Major Sector Spending Indexes by Day

Daily Spending Indexes

All Tracked Industries Combined

13 Activity Indexed to Daily Average Base Volume - Aug. 21 through Sept. 3.


Wilmington, New Bern, North

Myrtle Beach and Fayetteville

all experienced similar declines

in spending during the storm.

New Bern and Fayetteville

recovered more quickly

compared to Wilmington

and North Myrtle Beach.

Major MSAs in North Carolina

0

50

100

150

200

250

North Carolina Wilmington, NC

0

50

100

150

200

250New Bern, NC

0

50

100

150

200

250North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC

0

50

100

150

200

250Fayetteville, NC

Before Storm During Storm After Storm Before Storm During Storm After Storm



All Tracked Industries Combined



Charleston and Myrtle Beach /

Conway both experienced steep

drops in spending.

However the decline in spending in

Myrtle Beach / Conway was deeper

and more sustained than in

Charleston and other areas.

Major MSAs in South Carolina

0

50

100

150South Carolina Charleston, SC

0

50

100

150Myrtle Beach-Conway, SC

0

50

100

150

Hilton Head / Beaufort, SC

0

50

100

150

Columbia, SC






Major Sector Performance

137

5

186

0

50

100

150

200

Retail Non Retail

137

30

0

50

100

150

200

North Carolina

South Carolina

Before Storm During Storm After Storm

Spending peaked higher

and bottomed out lower in

North Carolina compared to

South Carolina.

Retail spending generally trended

weaker than Non Retail spending

across both states.



16


228

132

11

0

50

100

150

200

250Grocery Restaurants

231

28

171

0

50

100

150

200

250

In both North Carolina and

South Carolina, residents were

more concerned with stocking

their pantries than going out to

eat, as evidenced by the spike

in grocery spending.

Activity Indexed to Daily Average Base Volume - Aug. 21 through Sept. 3


North Carolina

South Carolina




17


49

0

50

100

150

200

250Gasoline Hotel

60

0

50

100

150

200

250

Gasoline spending spiked at the

same time in both states before

the storm.

In contrast North Carolina

residents spent more on hotels

after the storm made landfall.

Activity Indexed to Daily Average Base Volume - Aug. 21 through Sept. 3


North Carolina

South Carolina



Image: Nasa

Evacuee Cardholder Spending

Evacuees from Wilmington, NC

19

% Change in Spend From Base Week

Top Destinations

Week

Before

Storm

Week

Of

Storm

Week

After

Storm

1 Charlotte, NC 31% 410% 189%

2 Raleigh, NC 32% 327% 254%

3 Unincorporated Areas, NC 21% 161% 98%

4 Orlando-Kissimmee, FL 52% 282% 52%

5 Atlanta, GA -21% 790% 290%

6 Greensboro-High Point, NC 17% 585% 319%

7 Durham-Chapel Hill, NC 46% 380% 302%

8 Asheville, NC 6% 457% 176%

9 Washington, DC 24% 371% 234%

10 Winston-Salem, NC 32% 753% 444%

sheltering in place

Wilmington, NC 33% -70% -26%

Week of Storm

Many Wilmington evacuees

stayed in state, but moved

further inland.

Of the top destinations, Atlanta

saw the highest increase in

spend from Wilmington evacuees

the week of the storm.

Base week volume is derived from the average spend in those cities by cardholders from the evacuated MSA during weeks of

“normal conditions” Top 10 Destinations based on the total aggregated spend in the following categories: Hotel, Grocery,

Restaurants, Travel, Leisure, General Merchandise Unincorporated Areas reflect commerce happening in rural areas and other

municipalities which do not fall within the boundaries of a defined MSA.


Evacuees from New Bern, NC

20


Top Destinations

Week

Before

Storm

Week

Of

Storm

Week

After

Storm

1 Raleigh, NC 10% 203% 38%

2 Greenville, NC 21% 43% 78%

3 Washington, DC -3% 332% 90%

4 Atlanta, GA -17% 370% 107%

5 Virginia Beach, VA -12% 50% 19%

6 Winston-Salem, NC 82% 724% 102%

7 Asheville, NC 66% 350% 51%

8 Richmond, VA -25% 521% 151%

9 Unincorporated Areas, VA 61% 479% 111%

10 Baltimore, MD -13% 543% 243%

sheltering in place

New Bern, NC 40% -48% 7%

Many New Bern evacuees headed

north to Virginia and Maryland

during the storm.

Of the top destinations, Baltimore

saw the second highest increase

in spend from New Bern evacuees

the week of the storm. But the

city also had the highest level of

spend the week after the storm,

suggesting that evacuees

stayed longer.






Week of Storm

Evacuees from Myrtle Beach / Conway, SC

21


Top Destinations

Week

Before

Storm

Week

Of

Storm

Week

After

Storm


2 Charlotte, NC 22% 237% 11%

3 Columbia, SC 49% 423% 34%

4 Unincorporated Areas, NC 31% 107% 9%

5 Savannah, GA 106% 1,486% 44%

6 Greenville, SC 8% 519% 3%

7 Jacksonville, FL 44% 1,505% 90%

8 Washington, DC 8% 92% 17%

9 Florence, SC 22% 174% -9%

10 Augusta/Richmond, GA-SC 47% 1,017% 30%

sheltering in place

Myrtle Beach-

Conway, SC 18% -61% 2%

The Orlando-Kissimmee area was

the top destination, likely due to its

abundance of hotels and family-

oriented accommodations.

The most popular destinations

for Myrtle Beach / Conway

residents escaping the storm

were both inside and outside

of South Carolina.






Week of Storm

Evacuees from Charleston, SC

22


Top Destinations

Week

Before

Storm

Week

Of

Storm

Week

After

Storm


2 Atlanta, GA -15% 354% 3%

3 Jacksonville, FL -6% 838% -10%

4 Columbia, SC 26% 116% -8%

5 Greenville, SC -13% 208% 4%

6 Unincorporated Areas, SC 22% 76% -8%

7 Savannah, GA 20% 306% -8%

8 Charlotte, NC 24% 38% 0%

9 Augusta/Richmond, GA-SC -1% 411% -2%

10 Unincorporated Areas, GA -25% 494% 76%

sheltering in place

Charleston, SC 14% -40% 2%

Similar to Myrtle Beach / Conway,

the Orlando-Kissimmee area was

the top destination.

Similar to the Myrtle Beach /

Conway evacuee trends, the most

popular destinations were both

inside South Carolina and in

bordering states.






Week of Storm

Methodology

23

› All data is proprietary transaction data from First Data’s systems.

› Analysis includes all card-based forms of payment and is based on actual, same-

store spending activity.

› Analysis covers transaction activity during August 21 – September 24, 2018, with

a comparison period covering August 22 – September 25, 2017.

› All growth rates reflect a year-over-year basis, unless otherwise noted.

› Data is grouped into “Retail” and “Non-Retail”.

› All sales volume is based on transactions occurring at Brick & Mortar locations

only. No ecommerce activity is included.

› “Retail” includes Electronic & Appliances, Building Materials, Clothing &

Accessories, Furniture/Home Furnishings, General Merchandise, Sporting Goods,

Health and Personal Care Stores, Specialty Retail.

› “Non-Retail” includes Food & Beverage Stores, Restaurants, Hotel, Leisure,

Travel, Aftermarket Vehicle Parts, Gasoline Stations, and Services.

Hurricane Florence Economic Impact - First Data · Overall Impact North Carolina Spending was down...

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