Hungry for Change - Wayne Jones
-
Upload
cropprotection -
Category
Technology
-
view
1.044 -
download
0
description
Transcript of Hungry for Change - Wayne Jones
Agricultural OutlookProspects, Productivity and Policies
Wayne Jones,OECD Trade and Agriculture
10 November 2011
Prospects for agriculture are good…
Global consensus on medium term prospects for agriculture and fisheries
• Higher average prices
• Increasing production
• Growing non-food use
• Expanding trade
Higher average commodity prices% change in average real prices 2001-10 to 2011-2020
Wh
eat
Maiz
e
Ric
e
Oil
seed
Oil
see..
.
Veg.
Oil
Raw
S..
.
Beef
Pig
meat
Pou
ltry
Fis
h
Bu
tter
Ch
eese
SM
P
WM
P
Eth
an
ol
Bio
di.
..
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Rising agricultural and fish production
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
N.America L.America W.Europe E.Europe&C.AsiaN.Africa&M.East S.S.Africa Asia&Pacific Oceania
EU production projectionsEU27 Production: % change 2011-2020 vs. 2001-10
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Oilseeds
Veget. Oils
Protein meals
Wheat
Cheese
Poultry
Pigmeat
Coarse grains
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0
Sugar
Skimmed Milk …
Beef
Butter
Whole Milk Powder
Fish
Rice
Rising non-food demandShare of global production used for biofuel feedstocks
Sugar cane Vegetable oil Coarse Grains Sugar beet Wheat0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2020 2008-2010Percent
Expanding global trade
N.America13%
L.America27%
W.Europe6%E.Europe&C.Asia
11%N.Africa & M.East0%
S.S.Africa-1%
Asia&Pacific38%
Oceania4%
Share of export gains 2011-2020
EU production projectionsEU 27 Net position 2011- 2020 vs. 2001-2010: exports minus imports in thousand tonnes (absolute difference)
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
WheatOilseedsPigmeatCheese
Skimmed Milk Powder
-6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0
Veget. OilsSugar
Coarse grainsProtein meals
FishRiceBeef
ButterPoultry
Whole Milk Powder
Good global prospects but rising…
…production costs
…market/price volatility
…resource constraints
…and slowing productivity growth
Rising production costs
• FACEPA and agri-benchmark farm level analysis
• Variable costs have gone up – mainly energy and feed
• Impacts different by farm type and prod’n structure
• Costs have risen less than input prices (farmers adjust)
• Farm income rises with farm size
Greater market/price volatility…
• Weather (climate change)
• Low stocks
• Energy prices
• Exchange rates
• Inelastic demand
• Ag and trade policy
Resource constraints: water shortages
• 47% population under severe water stress by 2050
• Irrigation costs rise with energy prices
• Water pricing to agriculture will increase
• 60% freshwater withdrawals by agriculture (2010)
• 40% freshwater withdrawals used by agriculture (2050)
The need to increase productivity growth
• Growing demand for food and fuel
• Increasing competition for land
• Important water constraints
• Uncertain impacts of climate change
Improving agricultural productivity growth is not an option to consider - it is an essential requirement fro increasing global food supplies on a sustainable basis.
Slower agricultural TFP growthAverage annual growth rate by period (%)
Slower projected global output growth…Global agricultural production growth
2.60%
1.70%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
2001-2010 2011-2020
Productivity and Sustainability
• Need to reduce waste/carbon footprint (sustainable consumption and production)
• Need to increase productivity in a more sustainable manner
• Productivity and sustainability can be complimentary outcomes
•Precision farming (fertilizer/crop protection)
•More efficient water use (drip irrigation)
•Eco-system approaches (intensify production, conserve organic matter)
Governments can help
Governments need to link policies to priorities
• Invest in innovation
• Improve sustainability
• Facilitate producer risk management
EU policy reforms
Since 1992 several reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy have aimed at reducing distortions to production and trade in agriculture
Post 2013:
• Reduce market distortions
• Strengthen AKS systems
• Target environmental policies
OECD Trade and Agriculture
www.agri-outlook.org