Employment Planning & Forecasting

•Process of personnel planning; formulating plans to fill the future openings based on the analysis of environment and organizational plans.

•Manage the headcount of an org-achieve compatibility with predicted trends with performance over time.

HRP- EXPLANATIONSTHE PRACTICE OR ACTIVITY CARRIED ON BY THE ORGANIZATION WITH THE PRIMARY PURPOSE OF IDENTITIFYING AND ATTRACTING POTENTIAL EMPLOYEES.

THROUGH HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING, MANAGEMENT PREPARES TO HAVE THE RIGHT PEOPLE AT THE RIGHT PLACE AT THE RIGHT TIME TO FULFILL BOTH ORGANIZATIONAL AND INDIVIDUALOBJECTIVES.

HRP takes care of natural depletion of work force and the changing needs of the company as far as quality and nature of workers are concerned.

REASONS FOR DEMAND FORCASTING:

1. Quantify the jobs necessary for producing goods.

2. Determine staff-mix desirable in the future.

3. Assess appropriate staffing levels in different parts organisation to avoid unnecessary costs.

4. Prevent shortage of people when they are needed most.

5. Monitor compliance with legal requirements.

Potential benefitsPotential benefits

Upper management better aware.Personnel cost is controlled.More time to locate talent.Affirmative Action Plan implementedTime to develop employees

HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING PROCESSHUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING PROCESS

Forecast of Forecast of labour labour

demandsdemandsForecasts of Forecasts of

labour supplylabour supply

Forecasts of Forecasts of labour surplus labour surplus

or shortageor shortage

Goal setting Goal setting and strategic and strategic

planningplanning

Program Program implementation implementation and evaluationand evaluation

Activities

•Planning & Forecasting

•Predict Demand

•Tap the sources of Supply

•Recruitment/Selection

Methods Of Forecasting

•Trend Analysis

•Ratio Analysis

•Scatter Plot

•Computerized Forecast

•Qualification Inventories

•Personnel Replacement Charts

•Position Replacement Cards

PROGRAMME PLANNING OPTIONSPROGRAMME PLANNING OPTIONS

Do not replace employees who leave Do not replace employees who leave Offer incentives for early retirementOffer incentives for early retirementTransfer or re-assign excess employeesTransfer or re-assign excess employeesUse slack time for employees training or Use slack time for employees training or equipment maintenanceequipment maintenanceReduce work hoursReduce work hoursLay-off employeesLay-off employees

If a surplus of employees If a surplus of employees is expected ….is expected ….

Hire new full-time employeesHire new full-time employeesOffer incentives for postponing retirementOffer incentives for postponing retirementRe-hire retired employees on part-time basisRe-hire retired employees on part-time basisAttempt to reduce turnoverAttempt to reduce turnoverBring in overtime for present staffBring in overtime for present staffSubcontract work to another companySubcontract work to another companyHire temporary employeesHire temporary employeesRe-engineer to reduce needs.Re-engineer to reduce needs.

If a shortage of If a shortage of employees is expected employees is expected ….….

OPTIONS FOR REDUCING AN OPTIONS FOR REDUCING AN EXPECTED LABOR SURPLUSEXPECTED LABOR SURPLUS

Option SpeedHuman

SufferingDownsizing Fast High

Pay reductions Fast High

Demotions Fast High

Transfers Fast Moderate

Work sharing Fast Moderate

Retirement Slow Low

Natural attrition Slow Low

Retraining Slow Low

OPTIONS FOR AVOIDING AN OPTIONS FOR AVOIDING AN EXPECTED LABOR SHORTAGEEXPECTED LABOR SHORTAGE

Option Speed Human Suffering

Overtime Fast High

Temporary employees Fast High

Outsourcing Fast High

Retrained Transfers Slow High

Turnover reductions Slow Moderate

New external hires Slow Low

Technological innovation

Slow Low

Average core combined with Category A overtime and Category B own-pool temporaries

Small core workforce (inc. Category A home workers and part-timers) and Category C workers

Large core combined with Category A part-time

Average core combined with Category A part-timers, shift workers, home workers and Category C agency and/or subcontracts

HUMAN RESOURCING:Planning and performanceFluctuations in demand

High

High

Low

Low

Labour costs

Risk assessment model of flexible working patterns

Peripheral group I Secondary labour markets Flexibility

through quantitative adjustment

Short term contracts Public

subsidy trainees

Delayed recruitment

Job sharing

Part timers

Peripheral group II

Core group

Primary labour markets

Flexibility through utilization

Age

ncy

tem

pora

ries

Sub

cont

ract

ing

Out-sourcing

Self-employment

The flexible firm

DOWNSIZING

Reducing costs Replacing Labor by

Tech Mergers &

Acquisitions Moving to more

economical locations

Loss of talent Social network

effected Drop of motivation Hurt image building Only as a last resort Improve forecasting

RECRUITMENT CHANNELS

INTERNALJob Posting Programs

Buy Back

INTERNAL

Walk in interviews

Employee referrals

Advertisement

Employment agencies

Private placement agencies

Educational Institutes

Temporary Help Agencies

Open House

Local University

Renowned University

Employee Referrals

Newspaper Ad

Executive Search Firms

Resumes generated

200 400 50 500 20

Interview offers accepted

175 100 45 400 20

Yield ratio 87% 25% 90% 80% 100%

Judged acceptable

100 95 40 50 19

Yield radiation 57% 95% 89% 12% 95%

Accept employment offers

90 10 35 25 15

Yield ratio 90% 11% 88% 50% 79%

Cumulative 90/200 10/400 35/50 25/500 15/20

Yield ratio 45% 3% 70% 5% 75%

Cost $ 30,000 $ 50,000 $ 15,000 $ 20,000 $ 90,000

Cost per hire $333 $ 5,000 $ 425 $ 800 $ 6,000

Hypothetical Yield Ratio for Five Different Recruitment Sources

DOCUMENTATIONDOCUMENTATION

Application BlankJob PostingsPersonnel InventoriesReplacements

HRP AuditHRP Audit

Leaving cost or Horizontal mobilityDirect costs: Ads, Interviews, TestingCost of time spent by HR peopleOrientation and Trg costs