Hubbert Curve

By Kathleen Montz , Seth Johnston,

Christopher Kemple

Who is Hubbert?

• Marion King Hubbert

• Born October 5 2009

• Attended University of Chicago

• Studied Math, Geology, and Physics

Hubbert’s experience

• Worked for Shell oil for 21 years

• USGS researcher for 12 years

• Professor at Stanford and UC Berkeley

Hubbert’s Novel Idea

Hubbert’s Novel Idea cont.

• 1956

• Hubbert Curve

• Predicted peak level of oil production worldwide

Timeline of Hubbert Curve

• Production at time of prediction ~5 gigabarrels

• Worldwide oil production peaks at 12 gigabarrels in 2005

• Predicts future discoveries of 910 gigabarrels

Hubbert Curve Uses

• Can be applied regionally, nationally, and globally

• Can be used to determined production potential by oil companies

Uses cont.

• Can also be used for other fossil fuels• Coal

Peak Oil

• The amount of oil on Earth is finite and the demand for oil has drastically increased in the past 50 years.

• The rate of oil production has grown almost every year for the past century.

Peak Oil

• Peak oil is often misinterpret red to mean that the oil supply is completely exhausted.

• The real definition is that peak oil occurs when about half the worlds oil reserves have been used up.

• This is the transition from a buyers’ market to a sellers’ market.

Why Does Peak Oil Occur?

• Oil companies will extract the easy to reach oil first because it costs less to get to.

• Oil closer to the surface has less sulfur content and is thus easier to refine.

• Once this oil runs out more difficult oil nodes must be tapped.

Why Does Peak Oil Occur?

• When the oil becomes difficult to reach the viability of the oil field drops.

• If it takes the energy of a barrel of oil to extract a barrel of oil then further extraction is useless.

Evidence

• 1956 predicted oil peak in U.S. in 1970

• Prediction for 2005:– 178.2 Gb cumulative– 1.17 Gb current

production

• In 1970 U.S. oil production peaked

• Actual in 2005:– 176.4 Gb cumulative– 1.55 Gb current

production

Predictions Actual

Evidence…

1970

File:Hubbert US high.svg - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Not everyone agrees

• Exponential growth and decline for large populations

• Leonardo Maugeri , VP of Italian co. ENI– Recovery rate of oil fields

• 22% in 1980• 35% today

• Alfred J. Cavallo – Hubbert's theory is incorrect for world production

• Cambridge Energy Research Associates– The curve does not work with all countries– Predicts a plateau before decline

Expected Date

• Experts do not agree on the expected date for world peak oil.

• Some say that it has recently occurred, some say that it will occur shortly, and some say that a plateau of oil production could sustain the world for up to 100 years.

Experts prediction on peak

• Campbell, C.J. Oil company geologist; 2010

• Laherrere, J. Oil company geologist; 2010-2020

• CERA Energy consultants; after 2020

• Shell Major oil company; 2025 or later

• Goodstein, D. Vice Provost, Cal Tech; before 2010

U.S. Impact

• Peak in U.S. has already occurred• U.S. relies heavily on foreign countries.• Are subject to the whims of OPEC• Can cause a recession if oil prices become too

high• Will cause a shit towards more fuel efficient

transportation more than in other countries.

Global Impact

• Peak oil can cause worldwide depression

• Will force people to change the way they live

• Will force countries to reduce exports faster than they reduce their production.

• Global warming decrease

Preparedness

• Most of the countries are not prepared

• Use oil as if it was never going to run out

• Slowly getting more prepared

Education

• Most people are somewhat informed

• People overall are coming to the realization that oil is going to run out

• There are still some that are ignorant of the facts