Hng ti Thnh vng, Sng toCng bng v Dn ch

Hng ti Thnh vng,Sng to, Cng bng v Dn ch

VIT NAM2035

VIT NAM 2035

9 0 0 0 0

9 781464 808241

ISBN 978-1-4648-0824-1

SKU 210824

B K HOCH V U T

NHM NGN HNG TH GII

VI S H TR CA

SCH KHNG BN

B K HOCH V U TNHM NGN HNG TH GII

Vit Nam 2035

iiiLI CM N

VIT NAM 2035HNG TI THNH VNG, SNG TO,

CNG BNG V DN CH

Vi s h tr ca

NHM NGN HNG TH GIIB K HOCH V U T

2016 Ngn hng Quc t v Ti thit v Pht trin/Ngn hng Th gii v B K hoch v u t ca Vit Nam1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet: www.worldbank.org

Gi mt s bn quyn1 2 3 4 19 18 17 16

Tp sch ny l sn phm ca cc cn b thuc Ngn hng Quc t v Ti thit v Pht trin/Ngn hng Th gii v B K hoch v u t ca Vit Nam. Cc kt qu tm hiu, cc gii thch v kt lun a ra trong tp sch ny khng phn nh quan im chnh thc ca Ban Gim c iu hnh Ngn hng Th gii hoc cc chnh ph m h i din hoc ca B K hoch v u t v Chnh ph Vit Nam.

Ngn hng Th gii v B K hoch v u t ca Vit Nam khng m bo tnh chnh xc ca cc d liu trong tp sch ny. ng bin gii, mu sc, tn gi v cc thng tin khc biu hin trn cc bn trong tp sch ny khng hm bt k nh gi no ca Ngn hng Th gii hoc ca B K hoch v u t Vit Nam v v th php l ca bt k vng lnh th no v cng khng th hin bt k s ng h hay chp nhn no ca Ngn hng Th gii hay B K hoch v u t Vit Nam v cc ng bin gii .

Khng g c th hoc c coi l c th gii hn hoc xa b quyn u tin v min tr ca Ngn hng Th gii v/hoc ca B K hoch v u t ca Vit Nam, tt c cc quyn ny u c c bit duy tr.

BN QUYN V CP PHPBo co ny c pht hnh theo giy php Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO (CC BY 3.0 IGO) http://creativecommons.org/

licenses/by/3.0/igo. Theo giy php ny, bn c c th sao chp, phn pht, truyn b v iu chnh ni dung bo co k c v mc ch thng mi khi tun th cc iu kin sau: Dn chiu tc gi Yu cu dn chiu ti liu nh sau: Ngn hng Th gii v B K hoch v u t Vit Nam. 2016. Vit Nam 2035: Hng ti thnh vng, sng to, cng bng v dn ch. Washington, DC: Ngn hng th gii. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0824-1. Giy php: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO.

Dch thut Nu bn c mun dch li bo co ny, xin hy thm dng min tr trch nhim dch thut (bn cnh dng ghi nhn quyn tc gi) nh sau:

Bn dch ny khng phi l bn dch ca Ngn hng Th gii v/hoc B K hoch v u t Vit Nam (MPI) v khng c coi l bn dch chnh thc ca Ngn hng Th gii/MPI. Ngn hng Th gii v/hoc B K hoch v u t Vit Nam s khng chu trch nhim v bt c ni dung hoc li sai no ca bn dch ny.iu chnh ni dung Nu bn c mun iu chnh ni dung bo co ny, xin hy thm dng min tr trch nhim trong phn iu chnh ni dung (bn cnh dng ghi nhn quyn tc gi) nh sau:

y l bn iu chnh so vi bn gc ca Ngn hng Th gii v/hoc B K hoch v u t Vit Nam. Cc quan im, nhn nh trong bn iu chnh ny l ca ring tc gi ca bn iu chnh v khng phi l ca Ngn hng Th gii v/hoc B K hoch v u t Vit Nam.

NI DUNG CA BN TH BA Ngn hng Th gii v/hoc B K hoch v u t Vit Nam khng nht thit s hu hon ton tng phn ni dung thuc bo co ny. Do , Ngn hng Th gii v/hoc B K hoch v u t Vit Nam khng m bo vic s dng cc phn ni dung (c trong bo co) m bn th ba s hu s khng xm phm n bn quyn ca bn th ba. Ngi s dng l ngi duy nht phi chu nguy c b khiu kin nu xy ra vic xm phm bn quyn ca bn th ba. Nu mong mun ti s dng mt phn ca bo co, ngi s dng c trch nhim xc nh vic ti s dng c cn c cho php hay khng cng nh vic xin cp php t ngi s hu bn quyn. Cc cu phn ca bo co c th bao gm, nhng khng gii hn bng, biu hoc hnh nh.

Tt c cc cu hi lin quan n bn quyn v giy php phi c gi v Vn phng V xut bn, Ngn hng Th gii, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2652; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org

ISBN (bn in): 978-1-4648-0824-1ISBN (bn in t): 978-1-4648-0825-8DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0824-1

nh ba: Hnh nh trng ng Ngc L ca Vit Nam ca Doremon 360; c s dng theo giy php Sng to chung, phin bn 3.0. Ba tm nh pha di thuc s hu ca B K hoch v u t ca Vit Nam cho php s dng, nu ti s dng cn phi xin cp php.Thit k ba: B K hoch v u t ca Vit Nam cng Bill Pragluski ca Cng ty Critical Stages

gi yu cu bin mc xut bn phm ti Th vin quc hi

Nh nc bo m v pht huy quyn lm ch ca nhn dn; cng nhn, tn trng, bo v v bo m quyn con ngi, quyn cng dn; thc hin mc tiu dn giu, nc mnh, dn ch, cng bng, vn minh, mi ngi c cuc sng m no, t do, hnh phc c iu kin pht trin ton din.

Trch iu 3, Hin php Nc Cng ha X hi Ch ngha Vit Nam nm 2013.

Danh mc hnh ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... xiiDanh mc hp ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... xixDanh mc bng ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... xxiiiLi gii thiu .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. xxviiLi cm n ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ xxixDanh mc ch vit tt ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... xxxvii

CHNG 1. BA MI NM I MI V KHT VNG VIT NAM ............................ 1Thng ip chnh .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11. i mi: ng c, tin trnh, kt qu v phng php ...................................................................................................... 3

1.1. Tin trnh ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 31.2. p lc thay i v nhng ci cch ch yu .................................................................................................................................... 71.3. i mi t c nhng thnh tu k lc song ang xut hin nhng thch thc mi ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 171.4. Phng php tip cn i mi ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 25

2. C hi v thch thc ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 282.1. Nhn t trong nc ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 282.2. Nhn t ton cu ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32

3. Kht vng Vit Nam n nm 2035 ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 44

CHNG 2. HIN I HA NN KINH T V PHT TRIN KHU VC T NHN ......................................................................................................................................................................... 55Thng ip chnh ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 551. Tng trng v hin i ha nn kinh t Vit Nam ................................................................................................................... 59

1.1. Tng trng kinh t ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 591.2. Chuyn dch c cu ngnh theo hng hin i ............................................................................................................. 62

Mc lc

viii VIT NAM 2035 - HNG TI THNH VNG, SNG TO, CNG BNG V DN CH

1.3. Hi nhp nhanh chng v thng mi ...................................................................................................................................................... 691.4. Qu trnh chuyn i sang nn kinh t th trng cha ng b ................................... 71

2. C hi, ri ro v thch thc cho tng trng tng lai ..................................................................................................... 782.1. Bi hc ca mt s nc v kch bn tng trng cho Vit Nam .................................... 782.2. Thch thc v nng sut ca vit nam qua hai giai on tng trng ................. 862.3. Nguyn nhn ca s tr tr v nng sut ti Vit Nam nhn t gc chnh sch v th ch ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 89

3. Thc y hin i ha nn kinh t v pht trin khu vc t nhn ...................................................... 983.1. Ti c cu doanh nghip nh nc, to sn chi bnh ng ........................................................... 1013.2. Tng cng nn tng kinh t vi m pht trin khu vc t nhn .......................... 1063.3. Hin i ha v thng mi ha khu vc nng nghip .............................................................................. 1263.4. Tn dng c hi ngoi thng tng trng ..................................................................................................................... 130

Ph lc 1. Tng quan thc t gia cc mi quan h chnh tr v kh nng tip cn tn dng ca doanh nghip v li nhun ................................................................................................ 146Ph lc 2.1. ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 150Ph lc 2.2. Hch ton tng trng xc nh ngun gc tng trng ............................................ 155

CHNG 3 XY DNG NNG LC I MI SNG TO QUC GIA ................. 159Thng ip chnh ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1591. Vit Nam ang u v nng lc i mi sng to ..................................................................................................................... 164

1.1. Nn tng i nhu cu v tri thc trong cc doanh nghip ....................................................................... 1641.2. Nn tng ii nng lc hc hi cng ngh ca cc doanh nghip ...................................... 1681.3. Nn tng iii s lng, cht lng v tnh ph hp ca cc sn phm tri thc tin tin ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1711.4. Nn tng iv cht lng v k nng ph hp ca lc lng lao ng ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 173

2. Nhu cu i mi sng to t pha cu (doanh nghip) ........................................................................................................ 1742.1. To s nng ng cho hu ht cc doanh nghip ........................................................................................................... 1742.2. Nng cao nng lc i mi sng to ca doanh nghip Vit Nam .................................. 1772.3. Mi trng thun li cho tch ly tri thc v vn vt cht .................................................................... 185

3. i mi sng to t pha cung ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 1963.1. Tng u t, tp trung ngun lc cho cc nh nghin cu gii nht

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v c hiu sut cao nht ca quc gia ........................................................................................................................................................... 1973.2. D b quy nh hn ch i vi gio dc i hc c nhiu nh cung cp hn c th cnh tranh p ng nhu cu ca sinh vin .................... 2073.3. Cc ch s bo m thnh cng, hng ti mt h thng gio dc vi cc trng i hc ng cp th gii .............................................................................................................................................. 219

4. Thay cho li kt: hng ti mt nn kinh t da vo i mi sng to ................................ 220

CHNG 4 TH HA V NNG CAO HIU QU KINH T ................................................. 223Thng ip chnh .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2231. th ha v chuyn dch kinh t Vit Nam ........................................................................................................................................ 228

1.1. Tm quan trng ca cc th i vi tng trng kinh t ............................................................. 2291.2. Loi b cc cn tr pht trin nhanh ................................................................................................................................................. 231

2. th ha Vit Nam theo ba chiu (3d): mt , khong cch v phn bit 2332.1. Pht trin th mt thp v phn tn ........................................................................................................................................... 2332.2. Khong cch tng .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2442.3. S phn bit ko di .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2522.4. Nguyn nhn ca nhng hn ch ................................................................................................................................................................................ 255

3. Th ch v kt cu h tng: chnh sch cc th thch nghi vi hot ng ca mt nn kinh t thu nhp cao ................................................................................................................................ 271

3.1. i mi th ch thc y pht trin th ........................................................................................................................ 2723.2. Nng cp kt cu h tng tng kt ni gia cc th vi khu vc xung quanh ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2813.3. Tng kt ni kinh t nng thn th ................................................................................................................................................. 285

Ph lc 1. Thnh ph Hi Phng: nhng thch thc v trin vng ca mt ca ng ang trong qu trnh chuyn i ........................................................................................... 287

CHNG 5 PHT TRIN BN VNG V MI TRNG V TNG CNG KH NNG CHNG CHU VI BIN I KH HU ........................ 293Thng ip chnh ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2931. Bn vng v mi trng: cha kha tng trng v pht trin ......................................................... 2972. Nhng thch thc v mi trng Vit Nam hin nay v trong tng lai ................. 302

2.1. Suy thoi ti nguyn v nhim mi trng ............................................................................................................................ 302

x VIT NAM 2035 - HNG TI THNH VNG, SNG TO, CNG BNG V DN CH

2.2. Tc ng ca bin i kh hu ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 3202.3. Pht thi kh nh knh ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 3272.4. Nguyn nhn ch yu v sp xp cc thch thc theo th t u tin ................... 330

3. Pht trin bn vng hng ti nm 2035 chng ng pha trc ......................................... 3353.1. Tm nhn 2035 .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 3353.2. X l vn suy thoi t ng thi vi hin i ha nng nghip, nui trng thy sn v lm nghip ........................................................................................................................................................................ 3363.3. Gim nhim khng kh trong khi vn p ng nhu cu ngy cng tng v nng lng v th ha mnh hn .............................................................................. 3433.4. Gim nhim nc t cc khu vc th, cng nghip v nng thn ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3463.5. Thch ng vi bin i kh hu ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 3493.6. Cc bin php chung .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 352

4. Chi ph c hi ca s pht trin bn vng, ho nhp v chng chu vi bin i kh hu .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 354

CHNG 6 M BO CNG BNG V THC Y HA NHP X HI ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 359Thng ip chnh ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3591. Thc trng ha nhp x hi Vit Nam ...................................................................................................................................................................... 364

1.1. Hin trng .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 3641.2. Xu hng pht trin x hi ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3651.3. Nhng nh hng chnh sch x hi .......................................................................................................................................................... 365

2. Tip tc thc hin chng trnh bo m bnh ng v c hi cho cc nhm yu th ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 367

2.1. Cc dn tc thiu s ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3682.2. Ngi khuyt tt ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3782.3. Ngi di c ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 3852.4. Bnh ng gii v mc sinh ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 389

3. Trin khai chng trnh mi: ha nhp x hi i vi tng lp trung lu .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 392

3.1. Th trng lao ng ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 3943.2. Xy dng h thng gio dc cho nm 2035 .................................................................................................................................. 406

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3.3. Y t ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 4123.4. Chiu cnh vn ha ca ha nhp x hi ........................................................................................................................................... 4303.5. Bo tr x hi .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 431

CHNG 7 XY DNG TH CH HIN I V NH NC HIU QU ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 451Thng ip chnh ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4511. Vai tr ca th ch .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4552. Thc trng cht lng th ch Vit Nam ........................................................................................................................................................... 461

2.1. Nhng thnh tu ng ghi nhn ................................................................................................................................................................................ 4612.2. Nhng thch thc c bn ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4632.3. Trch nhim gii trnh ca nh nc trc nhn dn cn thp .......................................... 481

3. Hng ti th ch hin i v nh nc hiu qu ........................................................................................................................... 4863.1. nh hng chung ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 4863.2. Xy dng mt h thng hnh chnh hp l da trn h thng chc nghip thc ti ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4903.3. p dng nguyn tc th trng i vi cc quyt sch kinh t ................................................ 4983.4. Tng cng trch nhim gii trnh ca nh nc trc nhn dn .............................. 501

Kt lun .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 505Ti liu tham kho ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 510

Hnh 1.1. Vit Nam: Du n ci cch, tng trng v lm pht 1977-2015 ................................. 10Hnh 1.2. Vit Nam c v th c s tng quan cao trong qu o tng trng thu nhp di hn so vi cc quc gia khc .............................................................................................................................. 19Hnh 1.3. Tc tng trng GDP bnh qun u ngi trong giai on 1991 2014 ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 20Hnh 1.4. T l h ngho Vit Nam, giai on 1993-2014 ................................................................................................. 22Hnh 1.5. Ch s HDI mt s nc ang c ci thin ....................................................................................................... 23Hnh 1.6. Nhn thc v h thng kinh t c a thch ................................................................................................................ 29Hnh 1.7. Nhn thc v con ng chuyn i ..................................................................................................................................................... 30Hnh 1.8. T l ca GDP trong cc so vi GDP ton cu (kch bn c s) ..................................... 34Hnh 1.9. Thay i v GDP thc ca Vit Nam do TPP, giai on 2015-2035 (t l thay i lu k so vi tng trng c s ca trng hp trung bnh) .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 37Hnh 1.10. D bo mc tng nhit b mt khng kh .................................................................................................................. 43Hnh 1.11. Kch bn tng trng thu nhp ca Vit Nam n nm 2035 ............................................. 49

Hnh 2.1. Vit Nam tri qua 3 thp nin tng trng kinh t nhanh, cng bng v n nh ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 60Hnh 2.2. Chuyn dch c cu ngnh vi quy m ln din ra Vit Nam trong t nht 25 nm ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 63Hnh 2.3. Chuyn dch c cu Vit Nam ph hp vi cc m hnh ton cu ................. 65Hnh 2.4. Tch t t nng nghip din ra chm, v s thay i m hnh s dng t cng nh a dng ha cy trng vn cn giai on ban u ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 66Hnh 2.5. Vit Nam i sau Trung Quc v chnh sch v u t ngoi sn xut la go v p ng s thay i nhanh chng

Danh mc hnh

xiiiDANH MC HNH

v m hnh tiu th v chi tiu cho lng thc thc phm ........................................................ 67Hnh 2.6. T trng ca ngnh chn nui v nui trng thy sn tng ln trong khu vc nng nghip ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 67Hnh 2.7. Gia tng vic lm hng lng v s dch chuyn theo ngnh, 2004-2012 ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 68Hnh 2.8. Xut khu ca Vit Nam tng nhanh hn so vi tc trung bnh ca khu vc v th gii trong 15 nm qua ............................................................................................................................... 70Hnh 2.9. T do ha thng mi v u t to nn cc cm cng nghip vi s tham gia ca cc doanh nghip t nhn trong nc v FDI ...................... 71Hnh 2.10. Vai tr ca DNNN ngy cng gim trong nn kinh t t u nhng nm 2000 ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 72Hnh 2.11. Khu vc Nh nc gi th c quyn hay c quyn nhm ................................................. 74Hnh 2.12. S lng cng ty t nhn trong nc ng k mi tng mnh sau khi thc hin Lut Doanh nghip nm 1999 ................................................................................................... 77Hnh 2.13. Mc sng trn ton cu tng vt t sau th k 18 ................................................................................................ 79Hnh 2.14. T trng trong GDP th gii so vi t trng trong dn s th gii .......................... 82Hnh 2.15. Tng trng nng sut lao ng ang trn xu hng st gim ....................................... 86Hnh 2.16. Nng sut ti sn (vn v t ai) v nng sut lao ng thp cp doanh nghip phn nh tnh trng km hiu qu ko di trong khu vc cng Vit Nam .......................................................................................................................................................................... 90Hnh 2.17. Doanh nghip t nhn trong nc ch yu c quy m nh v phi chnh thc, cn tr tng nng sut nh hiu qu kinh t theo quy m, chuyn mn ha v i mi, sng to .................................................................................... 92Hnh 2.18. S st gim mnh v nng sut ti sn v nng sut lao ng ca cc doanh nghip nh cho thy u t vn khng phi l mt li th so snh ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 93Hnh 2.19. Vit Nam n nhn cc th trng vi hai tc : Tin b ng k trong cc th trng sn phm v cch tip cn th v lng tng hn i vi cc th trng yu t ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 96Hnh 2.20. Nng sut lao ng trong nng nghip cn thp mc d tng trng mnh t nm 1990 ......................................................................................................................... 98Hnh 2.21. V tr ca Vit Nam trong thc o php quyn gim xung t sau nm 1996, trong khi GDP tnh theo u ngi tng mnh ......................... 111

xiv VIT NAM 2035 - HNG TI THNH VNG, SNG TO, CNG BNG V DN CH

Hnh 2.22. Vit Nam dng nh c bit tt hu v quyn ti sn ........................................................................ 112Hnh 2.23. T l doanh nghip nhn thc ri ro thp v thu hi t ................................................................. 113Hnh 2.24. Bn GVCs ang v s tip tc to ngun xut khu cho Vit Nam: nng nghip, thit b vn ti, dt may v thit b in t/cng ngh thng tin (ICT) ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 133Hnh 2.25. Hm lng nhp khu cao trong hng in t xut khu ............................................................. 138Hnh 2.26. Ch s hn ch thng mi dch v theo ngnh ti cc nc ASEAN nm 2012 ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 140

Hnh 3.1. Kinh ph cho nghin cu v trin khai ca cc nc c xu hng tng ln cng vi trnh pht trin chung ............................................................. 167Hnh 3.2. nh gi ca doanh nghip v cht lng nghin cu ca cc t chc khoa hc v cng ngh v s hp tc gia cc trng i hc v khu vc t nhn ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 172Hnh 3.3. Vit Nam th hin mi quan h rng gia cht lng qun l v GDP, xp hng tt hn k vng vi mc thu nhp ca quc gia ny ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 181Hnh 3.4. Cc nh qun l trong doanh nghip Vit Nam mnh v gim st nhng yu v hoch nh cc mc tiu di hn, p dng cng ngh mi v ci cch chnh sch ngun nhn lc ........................................................................ 182Hnh 3.5. Ngay c nhng doanh nghip tt nht ca Vit Nam cng thp thua doanh nghip trung bnh v tiu chun bin .............................................................................................. 183

Hnh 4.1. th ha i i vi chuyn i c cu ......................................................................................................................................... 228Hnh 4.2. Xu th th ha Vit Nam mnh tng ng vi Hn Quc v Trung Quc ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 229Hnh 4.3. th ha v chuyn i t tng trng chm sang tng trng nhanh .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 231Hnh 4.4. Gia tng dn s th Vit Nam trong bc tranh ton cu ............................................... 234Hnh 4.5. M rng th vi mt thp c th lm gim li th kinh t do kt t .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 236Hnh 4.6. M rng th phn tn v manh mn vng thnh ph H Ch Minh, 2000-2010 ..................................................................................................................... 237

xvDANH MC HNH

Hnh 4.7. Nng sut ca cc khu cng nghip cao hn cc khu vc th ln cn ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 237Hnh 4.8. T l lp y cc khu cng nghip ti vng thnh ph H Ch Minh .................................................................................................................................................................. 240Hnh 4.9. Khu cng nghip trng ngoi thnh ph H Ch Minh, 2014 ........................... 241Hnh 4.10. th ha n v phn tn vng thnh ph H Ch Minh .................................................... 243Hnh 4.11. Mt sn xut cao ti Th H Ni v thnh ph H Ch Minh ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 245Hnh 4.12. T l trong tng dn s theo quy m th, 2009 ............................................................................................... 246Hnh 4.13. Thay i t l % trong tng dn s theo quy m th, 19892009 ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 246Hnh 4.14. Nng sut ca hai thnh ph ln nht ca Vit Nam cao hn gip tng mc lng cao gp 3-4 ln so vi khu vc nng thn .................................. 248Hnh 4.15. T l ngho th v nng thn u ang gim ............................................................................................. 252Hnh 4.16. T l h c nh kin c (%) ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 253Hnh 4.17. Sau khi c nng cp ln th loi 1, ngun thu a phng tnh Thi Nguyn tng gn gp i ............................................................................................................................................................. 259Hnh 4.18. Khng gian ng x ti th H Ni vn cha ph hp cho giao thng th ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 265

Hnh 5.1. lun c nc trong tng lai ngha l phi gii quyt vn v khai thc nc ngy hm nay ....................................................................................................................................................................... 306Hnh 5.2. Vit Nam mt i mt t l ng bo ng rng nguyn sinh trong vng 20 nm qua, mc d che ph rng chung c nc l khong 40% .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 308Hnh 5.3 Vai tr ni bt ca nui trng thy sn trong nn kinh t Vit Nam i hi phi phi hp cht ch, u t an ton sinh hc v nhng n lc ngn chn nhim ngun nc v s dng nc trong thy sn ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 313Hnh 5.4. X l nc thi cn cc gii php chi ph thp, chc chn v php l v bin php khuyn khch th trng ............................................................................................................................................... 316Hnh 5.5. Nc thi x vo lu vc sng Cu, sng Nhu - y v sng ng Nai ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 318

xvi VIT NAM 2035 - HNG TI THNH VNG, SNG TO, CNG BNG V DN CH

Hnh 5.6. Nng bi mn, do sn xut cng nghip v cc nh my in t than pha bc, ang gn bng mc ca Trung Quc ........................................................... 319Hnh 5.7. Tc ng khi c cc gii php thch ng n nui trng thy sn - gia tng ngp lt v xm nhp mn - nh hng n ngun lao ng v thu nhp quan trng ti nng thn ................................................................................................................................................ 325Hnh 5.8. Ch trong mt thp k, ba thc o lng kh thi carbon dioxide - kh thi nh knh, pht thi theo u ngi v cng cc-bon trn GDP tng gp i hoc gp ba Vit Nam ................................................................................. 327Hnh 5.9. S hu xe my tng nhanh khu vc th ....................................................................................................... 329Hnh 5.10. Xy dng cho mi vng mt quy hoch thng nht, c s phi hp lin ngnh, tng t nh Quy hoch ng bng sng Cu Long, s to iu kin phi hp tt hn vi trung ng ............................................................................................... 350

Hnh 6.1. T l ngho ca cc dn tc thiu s, nhm a s (ngi Kinh v Hoa) v c nc Vit Nam ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 368Hnh 6.2. T l ngho theo nhm dn tc Vit Nam nm 2009 ......................................................................... 369Hnh 6.3. Mc giu ngho ca cc dn tc Vit Nam, 1999 v 2009 ............................................... 370Hnh 6.4. T l ngho theo cc khu vc Vit Nam ................................................................................................................................ 372Hnh 6.5. Ch s giu c trung bnh v tnh trng di c theo nhm dn tc Vit Nam vo nm 1999 v 2009 .............................................................................................................................................................. 373Hnh 6.6. T l hon thnh ph cp tiu hc: Dn tc thiu s so vi Kinh v Hoa ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 374Hnh 6.7. im thi trung bnh ca hc sinh ngi Kinh so vi ngi dn tc thiu s ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 375Hnh 6.8. Vn tn ti khong cch ln v sc khe v dinh dng tr em theo cc nhm dn tc ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 376Hnh 6.9. Bt bnh ng ln v c hi i vi tr em dn tc thiu s .................................................... 376Hnh 6.10. Tam gic bt bnh ng v c hi i vi tr em ngi dn tc thiu s ................................................................................................................................................... 377Hnh 6.11. T l ngi dn khuyt tt theo tui Vit Nam ................................................................................................... 381

Hnh 6.12. T l ngi dn cho rng h sng mt ni tt cho ngi khuyt tt v tr tu, xt theo quc gia so vi GDP u ngi ........................................................................................... 382

xviiDANH MC HNH

Hnh 6.13. Hu ht tr em khuyt tt Vit Nam cha bao gi i hc ........................................................ 383Hnh 6.14. T l cc c nhn c vic lm theo tui v theo tnh trng khuyt tt ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 384Hnh 6.15. T l dn c khng c ng k h khu thng tr ti bn th ln ca Vit Nam .......................................................................................................................................................................... 386Hnh 6.16. T l i hc (%) theo bc hc v tnh trng ng k h khu ............................................... 387Hnh 6.17. Tng t sut sinh v t s gii tnh khi sinh Vit Nam ................................................................... 391Hnh 6.18. D bo xu hng trung lu ha Vit Nam, 2015-2035 ................................................................ 394Hnh 6.19. Phn t vic lm Vit Nam, 2014 ............................................................................................................................................................. 396Hnh 6.20. Mc lng ti thiu so vi mc lng trung bnh, Vit Nam so vi mt s nc OECD v ng v Thi Bnh Dng .................................................... 398Hnh 6.21. Ch s EPL v tnh nghim ngt ca php lut trong bo v vic lm ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 399Hnh 6.22. S cuc nh cng t pht ti Vit Nam theo loi hnh ........................................................................ 402Hnh 6.23. Vn cn chnh lch ln v t l i hc bc trung hc ph thng ........................ 406Hnh 6.24. Thp tui i hc: 1989 so vi 2012 i vi tr em 6-18 tui ..................................................... 408Hnh 6.25. Vi vic tip tc m rng tt nghip trung hc ph thng, Vit Nam c th i theo con ng ca Hn Quc: T l tt nghip trung hc ph thng cao so vi GDP bnh qun u ngi, 1950-2010 ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 411Hnh 6.26. Vit Nam lm th no c th v tr cao nht? ............................................................................................... 414Hnh 6.27. Ngi ngho s dng chm sc y t cp c s, trong khi ngi giu s dng cc bnh vin cp cao hn ....................................................... 415Hnh 6.28. L trnh cho vic tng cng chm sc ban u ..................................................................................................... 417Hnh 6.29. Vit Nam l nc c t l chi cho y t cao, nhiu ngi dn ri vo cnh i ngho do cc khon chi t tin ti cho khm cha bnh (OOP) ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 420Hnh 6.30. Mc ph thuc vo chi tiu cho y t t ngun c nhn (OOP) gim i khi t nc pht trin v tin n bo him y t ton dn (UHC) ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 421Hnh 6.31. Nhiu ngi ngho v d b tn thng cha c bo him y t ......................... 423Hnh 6.32. S ngi gi tnh trn s ngi trong tui lao ng s tng nhanh

xviii VIT NAM 2035 - HNG TI THNH VNG, SNG TO, CNG BNG V DN CH

T l ph thuc gi (S ngi trn 65 tui tnh trn 100 ngi trong tui t 15 n 64) ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 432Hnh 6.33. T trng nhng ngi k vng ngun h tr ti chnh ch yu cho h khi v gi s t bn thn h, chnh ph v con ci/gia nh, cc nc khc nhau khu vc ng TBD .......................................................................................................... 433Hnh 6.34. Khi Vit Nam chuyn ln a v nc thu nhp trung bnh cao, ph ca lng hu cn tng ln ng k ........................................................................................................................ 435Hnh 6.35. Chi tiu cng cho lng hu, Vit Nam v ng so vi th gii ...................... 435Hnh 6.36. Vit Nam c mt khong trng gia ln trong h tr tui gi .................................. 437Hnh 6.37. bao ph ca cc chng trnh tr gip x hi (Cc nhm 20% ngho nht) ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 439

Hnh 7.1. Tng quan di hn gia Cht lng qun tr v Thnh vng ..................................... 457Hnh 7.2. So snh kim sot tham nhng gia cc nc .............................................................................................................. 464Hnh 7.3. Xp hng Thng tn php lut .......................................................................................................................................................................... 466Hnh 7.4. Cm nhn v quyn lc ca cc nhm li ch ................................................................................................................ 468Hnh 7.5. Tip cn vn bn ca tnh ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 473Hnh 7.6. Cm nhn v cc yu t tc ng khi xin vic trong khu vc nh nc ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 477Hnh 7.7. Mc bo v quyn ti sn ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 479Hnh 7.8. Thnh vin cc t chc qun chng v cc nhm t nguyn ................................................ 482Hnh 7.9. Xp hng minh bch ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 483Hnh 7.10. kin doanh nghip nh gi v mc c lp t php ......................................................... 485Hnh 7.11. Hiu qu kim tra v gim st ca c quan lp php v t php ................................. 486Hnh 7.12. Chc nng ca cc c quan trung tm trong Chnh ph ................................................................. 491

Hp 1.1. Nhng s kin ci cch chnh theo nh hng th trng ...................................................... 7Hp 1.2. Trit l gio dc ca Vit Nam trong thi k i mi .............................................................................. 17Hp 1.3. Qu o tng trng di hn ca Vit Nam so vi cc nc khc ......................... 18Hp 1.4. Quan im ang thay i ca x hi Vit Nam v th trng v nh nc .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 28Hp 1.5. Hip nh i tc xuyn Thi Bnh Dng (TPP) ........................................................................................... 36Hp 1.6. Kht vng cho nm 2035 ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 45

Hp 2.1. Ci cch doanh nghip ti Vit Nam ..................................................................................................................................................... 75Hp 2.2. Bi cnh ton cu: Mt thi k hong kim ca tng trng? ............................................... 78Hp 2.3. Kch bn c s v tng trng thu nhp n nm 2035 ...................................................................... 83Hp 2.4. Nim tin kinh doanh thp Vit Nam ............................................................................................................................................ 91Hp 2.5. Tng trng nng sut lao ng Vit Nam, Trung Quc v Hn Quc .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 99Hp 2.6. Tip cn t ai ti Vit Nam vn l mt ro cn hn ch s pht trin doanh nghip t nhn ........................................................................................................................................................ 113Hp 2.7. Bo him tin gi Vit Nam ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 118Hp 2.8. Cng ty Qun l ti sn Vit Nam ................................................................................................................................................................ 120Hp 2.9. Xu hng trong mng li sn xut v thng mi ton cu .............................................. 131Hp 2.10. Thnh cng ca ngi Vit trong cc ngnh dch v ICT ............................................................ 142

Hp 3.1. Bn nn tng ca mt nn kinh t da vo i mi sng to .............................................. 161Hp 3.2. u l hnh mu ca Vit Nam? ....................................................................................................................................................................... 163Hp 3.3. Mt H thng i mi sng to quc gia tt thc y hc hi ca doanh nghip nh th no ............................................................................................................................................................................. 169Hp 3.4. Nhiu chnh sch ch tn ti trn giy ............................................................................................................................................... 176

Danh mc hp

xx VIT NAM 2035 - HNG TI THNH VNG, SNG TO, CNG BNG V DN CH

Hp 3.5. Nng cp doanh nghip trong mt nn kinh t vi s chim u th ca cc cng ty a quc gia: trng hp Xinh-ga-po ............................................................................... 178Hp 3.6. Qun l hiu qu v ri ro la go: Cng ty c phn Bo v thc vt An Giang ng bng sng Cu Long .......................................................................................................................................... 187Hp 3.7. Pht trin th trng vn v to thun li cho vic rt lui khi th trng - m hnh Novo Mercado ca Bra-xin .............................................................................................. 190Hp 3.8. Vit Nam cn tng cng nng lc cn b thc thi v y mnh hn na vic gii quyt cc hnh vi xm phm quyn SHTT bng bin php dn s ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 195Hp 3.9. Kt qu v tc ng nghin cu ca Anh c nh gi mt cch c h thng theo H thng nh gi cht lng nghin cu trong cc trng i hc ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 200Hp 3.10. S dng cc qu nghin cu thc y tin b v gii quyt cc thch thc khoa hc v cng ngh ch yu c tm quan trng quc gia: Qu Fondos sectoriales ca M-hi-c .......................................................................................................... 202Hp 3.11. Chng trnh ci cch gio dc i hc 2006-2020 ....................................................................................... 209Hp 3.12. Vic m rng nhanh chng gio dc i hc t nhn tha mn c nhu cu v k nng n ..................................................................................................... 216

Hp 4.1. Cc khu cng nghip khng c s dng ht cng sut trong khi chi ph cho cc khu ny rt tn km ........................................................................................................................................................ 242Hp 4.2. Kinh nghim Hn Quc ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 244Hp 4.3. Mt s trung tm th gn hai thnh ph ln rt thnh cng trong thu ht u t ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 247Hp 4.4. S tn km ca th ha thiu quy hoch ti cc nc M La-tinh ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 260Hp 4.5. Vn trong pht trin th ti Trung Quc ........................................................................................................... 267Hp 4.6. th Vit Nam: th hin i v ng sng .................................................................................................. 272Hp 4.7. Thng Hi trnh dng GDP nh ch tiu nh hng cho chnh sch th ha .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 277Hp 4.8. Chuyn i quy hoch khng gian ca Ba Lan ........................................................................................................... 278Hp 4.9. Tim nng ng st cao tc v tng cng kt ni gia cc th ................... 281

xxiDANH MC CH VIT TT

Hp 4.10. Cch thc t chc th thnh cng ca Nht Bn da trn m hnh tinh ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 284

Hp 5.1. Kt qu ca tng trng bn vng, ho nhp v chng chu vi BKH ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 300Hp 5.2. Tng trng nng nghip gy ra nhng tc ng ngy cng tng v nng nghip ............................................................................................................................................................................. 303Hp 5.3. Chi ph ca tnh trng v sinh mi trng km ....................................................................................................... 316Hp 5.4. Cc mc tiu pht trin bn vng ca Lin hip quc lin quan trc tip mi trng ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 336Hp 5.5. ng qun l l gii php then cht m bo bn vng trong nh bt hi sn .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 338Hp 5.6. Chi tr dch v h sinh thi: phng php tip cn i vi qun l mi trng da trn th trng ....................................................................................................... 340

Hp 6.1. Tng cng chm sc sc khe ban u Thi Lan ................................................................................... 418

Hp 7.1. Hiu qu ca nh nc v s pht trin: S gp nhau v t duy ca phng ng v phng Ty ................................................................................................................................................................. 458Hp 7.2. Kinh nghim qun l nhn ti trong nn cng v mt s nc ...................................... 496

Bng 1.1. Tc tng trng trung bnh hng nm ca GDP theo gi thc t ............... 33Bng 1.2. Tng quan v tc ng ca TPP v FTAAP n Vit Nam, giai on 2015-2035 (t l thay i lu k so vi tng trng c s ca trng hp trung bnh - tr khi c lu khc) ....................................................................................... 37

Bng 2.1. C cu ca nn kinh t: Pha cung (%) ............................................................................................................................................. 84Bng 2.2. C cu ca nn kinh t: Pha cu (%) ................................................................................................................................................... 85Bng 2.3. Cc ngun lc tng trng Vit Nam, 1990-2013 ....................................................................................... 87Bng 2.4. GDP v tng nng sut ngnh: 1990-2035 (%) ............................................................................................................. 88Bng 2.5. Tng trng nng sut lao ng Vit Nam, Trung Quc v Hn Quc (%) ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 100Bng 2.6. Bng xp hng Ch s hiu sut v logistics .......................................................................................................................... 144Bng 2.7. Cc kt qu chnh ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 149Bng 2.8. Mt s lnh vc kinh doanh nng nghip v tim nng nng cp ti Vit Nam ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 150Bng 2.9. n gi cc nng sn xut khu ch yu ca Vit Nam so vi mc trung bnh ca th gii ............................................................................................................................................................. 152Bng 2.10. Cc nh cung cp ton cu chnh v ph tng xe c gii ti Vit Nam ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 153Bng 2.11. Phn loi lnh vc u t ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 154

Bng 3.1. Nng lc xc nh, thch ng v sng to ra cng ngh nng cao hiu qu v a dng ha cc sn phm hng ha mi ca Vit Nam cn yu km ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 165Bng 3.2. Vit Nam tt hu xa so vi cc nc cnh tranh v cp bng sng ch, phn nh s yu km ca hot ng nghin cu v trin khai ......................................... 168

Danh mc bng

xxiv VIT NAM 2035 - HNG TI THNH VNG, SNG TO, CNG BNG V DN CH

Bng 3.3. K nng ca lc lng lao ng b nh hng do s mt cn i v c cu trong h thng gio dc i hc ............................................................................................................................... 173Bng 3.4. Vit Nam yu v mi trng thun li cho khi s doanh nghip, bo v nh u t v gii quyt ph sn - iu kin c bn quyt nh thnh lp mt cng ty ...................................................................................................................................................... 188Bng 3.5. Nghin cu sinh Vit Nam hin din ngy cng tng ti Hoa K, nhng s lng cn thp hn so vi mt s nc cnh tranh chu ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 206Bng 3.6. T l nhp hc i hc trong tui tng ln trong h thng gio dc nhiu quc gia ................................................................................................................................ 207Bng 3.7. Trnh ging vin ti cc trng i hc c nng cao vi su ging vin i hc c mt tin s v hn mt na s ging vin c trnh thc s ....................................................................................................................................................................... 208

Bng 4.1. th ha v t ai v dn s Vit Nam giai on 1995 2015 ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 235Bng 4.2. T l lp y cc khu cng nghip vi nh ngha tng ng v quy hoch v ranh gii .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 239Bng 4.3. Tip cn dch v khng ng u gia c dn th v nng thn, nm 2012-2013 ................................................................................................................................................................................. 254Bng 4.4. Tiu ch nh gi th c nng cp t th loi 2 ln loi 1 ............................. 261Bng 4.5. Cc loi k hoch/quy hoch Vit Nam ................................................................................................................................. 262

Bng 5.1. Vit Nam c ri ro cao v ngy cng tng i vi tc ng ca bin i kh hu ang dn dn khi pht ................................................................................................................. 304Bng 5.2. Bin i kh hu v nc bin dng s nh hng n nng sut v sn lng nhng cy trng chnh ........................................................................................ 317Bng 5.3. Lm pht ly k vt gi in, a mc gi in thc xung mc thp nht trong khu vc ....................................................................................................................................................... 320Bng 5.4. Chi ph c hi phi cn bng vi tnh cp thit ca cc bin php ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 324Bng 5.5. Lm pht ly k vt gi in, a mc gi in thc xung mc thp nht trong khu vc ................................................................................................................................................... 332

xxvDANH MC BNG

Bng 5.6. Chi ph c hi phi cn bng vi tnh cp thit ca cc bin php .................. 355

Bng 6.1. Cc tiu ch xy dng mc lng ti thiu cc nc khc nhau ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 403Bng 6.2. Cc ch bo ch yu ca h thng y t Vit Nam vo nm 2035 .................................... 422Bng 6.3. Nhng con ng khc nhau t c bao ph 100% ............................................... 423Bng 6.4. y nhanh vic m rng che ph BHYT chu ............................................................................ 424Bng 6.5. Vai tr ca khu vc cng v khu vc t nhn trong 30 h thng y t tin tin v Vit Nam ..................................................................................................................... 428Bng 6.6. T l ng gp lng hu, nm gn nht, ng - TBD v M Latinh Ca-ri-b ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 436

Bng 7.1. C cu tui cn b, cng chc Vit Nam .................................................................................................................................... 495

Sau 30 nm i mi k t nm 1986, Vit Nam t c nhng thnh tu to ln, c ngha lch s. T mt nc ngho, b chin tranh tn ph nng n v k hoch ha tp trung bao cp, khp kn, Vit Nam ra khi tnh trng km pht trin, tr thnh nc ang pht trin c thu nhp trung bnh v mt nn kinh t th trng nng ng, hi nhp mnh m, su rng vo h thng kinh t ton cu. Tng trng kinh t ca Vit Nam kh cao, lin tc, n nh v bao trm, bo m mi ngi dn c hng li t qu trnh pht trin. y l thnh cng rt n tng v l nim t ho ca Vit Nam, trong c s hp tc, gip qu bu ca cng ng quc t.

Thnh cng ca 30 nm i mi cng t ra nhiu k vng v trch nhim ln hn, nng n hn i vi tng lai. Mc tiu ca Vit Nam c khng nh trong Hin php l Dn giu, nc mnh, dn ch, cng bng, vn minh. Vit Nam c kht vng mnh m l n nm 2035 s tr thnh mt nc cng nghip hin i, hng ti thnh vng, sng to, cng bng v dn ch.

Vi tinh thn , thng 7 nm 2014, Chnh ph Vit Nam v Ngn hng Th gii a ra sng kin xy dng Bo co Vit Nam 2035. Bo co khuyn ngh Vit Nam cn thc hin su chuyn i quan trng tr thnh mt nn kinh t thu nhp trung bnh cao. Trc ht l hin i ha nn kinh t ng thi vi nng cao nng lc cnh tranh ca khu vc kinh t t nhn. Hai l pht trin nng lc i mi sng to, ly khu vc kinh t t nhn lm trung tm. Ba l nng cao hiu qu ca qu trnh th ha, tng cng kt ni gia cc thnh ph v vng ph cn. Bn l pht trin bn vng v mi trng v tng cng kh nng ng ph vi bin i kh hu. Nm l m bo cng bng v ha nhp x hi cho cc nhm yu th cng vi s pht trin ca x hi trung lu. Su l xy dng mt Nh nc php quyn hin i vi nn kinh t th trng y , hi nhp v x hi dn ch pht trin trnh cao. Chng trnh ci cch gn vi su chuyn i ny c th hin theo ba tr ct chnh: thnh vng v kinh t i i vi bn vng v mi trng; cng bng v ha nhp x hi; nng lc v trch nhim gii trnh ca nh nc.

Li gii thiu

xxviii VIT NAM 2035 - HNG TI THNH VNG, SNG TO, CNG BNG V DN CH

Chng ti rt vui mng thy cc chuyn gia Vit Nam, Ngn hng Th gii v cc chuyn gia quc t hp tc ht sc cht ch trong qu trnh xy dng Bo co Vit Nam 2035: Hng ti Thnh vng, Sng to, Cng bng v Dn ch. Chng ti hy vng rng Chnh ph Vit Nam, Ngn hng th gii v cc i tc pht trin s tip tc duy tr s phi hp hiu qu nhm c th ha nhng ni dung ph hp ca Bo co ny trong K hoch pht trin kinh t - x hi 5 nm 2016 2020 v Chin lc pht trin kinh t - x hi 10 nm 2021 2030, cng nh theo di, nh gi v trin khai thc hin cc khuyn ngh ca Bo co.

Th tng Chnh ph Nc Cng ha X hi Ch ngha Vit Nam

Nguyn Tn Dng

Ch tchNgn hng Th gii

Jim Yong Kim

Bo co Vit Nam 2035: Hng ti Thnh vng, Sng to, Cng bng v Dn ch l sng kin chung ca Chnh ph Vit Nam v Ngn hng Th gii c Th tng Chnh ph Nguyn Tn Dng v Ch tch Jim Yong Kim chp thun vo thng 7 nm 2014.

Bo co do nhm chuyn gia ca Vit Nam v Ngn hng Th gii son tho di s ch o ca Ph Th tng Chnh ph V c am, B trng B K hoch v u t Bi Quang Vinh, ng Axel van Trotsenburg, Ph Ch tch Ngn hng Th gii, b Victoria Kwakwa, Gim c Quc gia v ng Sudhir Shetty, Chuyn gia Kinh t trng khu vc Chu - Thi Bnh Dng. Chn thnh cm n s t vn su sc ca Ban Ch o xy dng Bo co Vit Nam 2035 gm GS. Nguyn Xun Thng, Ch tch Vin Hn lm Khoa hc X hi Vit Nam; ng Nguyn Vn Tng, Ph Ch nhim Vn phng Chnh ph; ng Nguyn Ngc Bo, Ph Trng ban Ban Kinh t Trung ng; ng Bi Thanh Sn, Th trng B Ngoi giao; ng Trng Ch Trung, Th trng B Ti chnh; ng Nguyn Ton Thng, Ph Thng c Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam v PGS.TS. Bi Tt Thng, Vin trng Vin Chin lc pht trin, B K hoch v u t.

Chnh ph Vit Nam giao B K hoch v u t phi kt hp vi cc b, ngnh chc nng, cc vin nghin cu v kt hp vi Ngn hng Th gii chun b bo co. T cng tc gia Vit Nam v Ngn hng Th gii c thnh lp vi s ch o trc tip ca TS. Cao Vit Sinh (Nguyn Th trng thng trc B K hoch v u t), b Victoria Kwakwa (Gim c Quc gia Ngn hng Th gii ti Vit Nam) v ng Sandeep Mahajan (Chuyn gia Kinh t trng, Ngn hng Th gii ti Vit Nam).

Chnh ph c, C quan Hp tc Quc t Hn Quc (KOICA) v B Pht trin quc t Vng quc Anh (DFID) h tr ti chnh cho cng tc chun b bo co.

Bn bo co nhn c nhng nhn xt rt c gi tr ca cc chuyn gia kinh t ca Ngn hng Th gii gm ng Ted Chu, Chuyn gia Kinh t trng; ng Mario Marcel, nguyn Gim c cao cp; ng Martin Rama, Chuyn gia Kinh t trng; b Ana Revenga,

Li cm n

xxx VIT NAM 2035 - HNG TI THNH VNG, SNG TO, CNG BNG V DN CH

Gim c cp cao v cc chuyn gia khc, nhng ngi nhn xt, gp cho cng tng ban u ca bo co. c bit cm n nhng gp v khuyn ngh i vi Bo co tng quan v bo co tng chng ca Ban C vn gm ng David Dollar, Vin Brookings; ng Ravi Kanbur, i hc Cornell; ng Homi Kharas, Vin Brookings; ng Danny Leipziger, T chc i thoi v Tng trng v i hc George Washington; ng Vikram Nehru, Qu Ha bnh Quc t Carnegie; b Mari Pangestu, i hc Columbia; ng Graham Teskey, Abt JTA; v b Tn N Th Ninh, Nguyn Ph Ch nhim y ban i ngoi ca Quc hi Vit Nam. c bit bo co nhn c nhng nhn xt, ng gp rt c gi tr ca cc ng V Khoan, nguyn Ph Th tng Chnh ph, ng Trng nh Tuyn, nguyn B trng B Thng mi, Nc Cng ha X hi Ch ngha Vit Nam.

Bo co l s kt hp nhun nhuyn gia kinh nghim ca cc chuyn gia quc t v hiu bit su sc ca cc chuyn gia trong nc qua qu trnh phi hp hiu qu gia cc bn v nhng ng gp c gi tr to ln ca cc chuyn gia t vn quc t v trong nc. B K hoch v u t, cc vin v cc c quan nghin cu, cc chuyn gia quc t t chc nhiu hi tho tham vn rng ri cng nh cc cuc tho lun nhm trong qu trnh son tho bo co. Mt trang web c thit k dnh ring cho bo co, thu ht ng o cng chng v cc chuyn gia trong v ngoi nc tham gia trao i, tho lun trc tuyn cng nh vit bi tham lun theo cc ch ca bo co.

Bo co ting Anh do ng Bruce Ross Larson ca Communications Development hiu nh, bao gm cc thnh vin Jonathan Aspin, Joe Caponio v Mike Crumplar. Sn xut v xut bn bo co ting Anh do b Susan Graham v b Patricia Katayama thuc V Xut bn v Tri thc ca Ngn hng Th gii - Truyn thng i ngoi - thc hin.

Bo co Vit Nam 2035 c by chng v Bo co Tng quan do cc nhm chuyn gia c thnh lp son tho (tn cc chuyn gia c xp theo th t ABC).

Bo co tng quan Vit Nam 2035Cc tc gi chnh: TS. Cao Vit Sinh, Nguyn Th trng thng trc B K hoch

v u t, Chuyn gia cao cp; TS. Gabriel Demombynes, Chuyn gia cao cp Ngn hng Th gii ti Vit Nam; TS. Victoria Kwakwa, Gim c Quc gia Ngn hng Th gii ti Vit Nam, TS. Sandeep Mahajan, Kinh t trng Ngn hng Th gii ti Vit Nam v TS. Sudhir Shetty, Chuyn gia Kinh t trng khu vc Chu - Thi Bnh Dng.

Cc thnh vin ch cht ca nhm nghin cu: B Phm Chi Lan, Chuyn gia kinh t cao cp, Nguyn thnh vin Ban nghin cu ca Th tng Chnh ph; PGS.TS. Hong

xxxiLI CM N

Th Lin, Nguyn Th trng thng trc B T php; TS. V Tr Thnh, Ph Vin trng, Vin Nghin cu Qun l Kinh t Trung ng; GS.TSKH. Nguyn Quang Thi, Ph Ch tch kim Tng Th k Hi Khoa hc Kinh t Vit Nam; ng Nguyn Vn Vnh, Ph Vin trng Vin Chin lc pht trin, B K hoch v u t v ng on Hng Quang, Chuyn gia kinh t cao cp, Ngn hng Th gii ti Vit Nam.

Cc chuyn gia ng gp nghin cu u vo: TS. Claus Brand, Chuyn gia t vn; Sebastian Eckardt, Chuyn gia kinh t cao cp v chnh sch ti kho v cc chuyn gia t vn thuc T chc Centennial Asia Advisors.

Chng 30 nm i Mi v Kht vng Vit Nam 2035Cc tc gi chnh: PGS.TS. Bi Tt Thng, Vin trng v ng Nguyn Vn Vnh,

Ph Vin trng Vin Chin lc pht trin, B K hoch v u t ch tr bin son vi s tham gia ca TS. V Tr Thnh, Ph Vin trng Vin Nghin cu Qun l kinh t Trung ng, B K hoch v u t; TS. Cao Vit Sinh, Nguyn Th trng thng trc B K hoch v u t, Chuyn gia cao cp; ng Raymond Mallon, chuyn gia t vn quc t c lp; ng Sandeep Mahajan, Chuyn gia Kinh t trng, Ngn hng Th gii ti Vit Nam.

Cc chuyn gia ng gp nghin cu u vo: PGS.TS. Trn nh Thin, Vin trng, Vin Kinh t Vit Nam, Vin Hn lm KHXH Vit Nam, GS.TSKH Nguyn Quang Thi, Ph Ch tch kim Tng Th k Hi Khoa hc Kinh t Vit Nam; TS. Nguyn c Thnh, Vin trng, Vin Nghin cu Kinh t v Chnh sch, i hc quc gia H Ni.

H tr nghin cu: ng ng Huyn Linh, Ph Trng ban, b V Thu Trang v b Nguyn Th M Hnh, Ban Cc vn quc t, b Nguyn Th Hng Giang, Ban Tng hp v ng Nguyn ng Hng, Ban Thng tin v Hp tc quc t, Vin Chin lc pht trin, B K hoch v u t.

Chng Hin i ha nn kinh t v nng cao nng lc cnh tranh ca khu vc t nhnCc tc gi chnh: TS. Mona Haddad, Gim c, Ngn hng Th gii; TS. Sandeep

Mahajan, Chuyn gia Kinh t trng Ngn hng Th gii ti Vit Nam (trng nhm chuyn gia quc t); b Phm Chi Lan, Chuyn gia kinh t cao cp (trng nhm pha Vit Nam) v TS. Phm Th Thu Hng, Tng Th k, Phng Thng mi v Cng nghip Vit Nam.

xxxii VIT NAM 2035 - HNG TI THNH VNG, SNG TO, CNG BNG V DN CH

Cc thnh vin ch cht ca nhm nghin cu: TS. on Hng Quang, Chuyn gia kinh t cao cp, Ngn hng Th gii ti Vit Nam; b Claire Honore Hollweg, Chuyn gia kinh t; Steven Jaffee, Chuyn gia trng v pht trin nng thn; TS. Nguyn Vn Ln, Chuyn gia cao cp ca T chc Ti chnh Quc t (IFC) v b Daria Taglioni, Chuyn gia cao cp v kinh t thng mi.

Cc chuyn gia ng gp nghin cu u vo: Guillermo Arenas; Chuyn gia t vn; TS. Reyes Aterido, Chuyn gia t vn; Ruth Banomyong, Chuyn gia t vn; GS. David Dollar, T chc Brookings; Stacey Frederick, Chuyn gia t vn; ng Gin Thnh Cng, Chuyn gia t vn; James Hanson, Chuyn gia t vn; Claire Honore Hollweg, Chuyn gia kinh t; GS.TSKH. ng Hng V, Chuyn gia t vn; TS. ng Kim Sn, Nguyn Vin trng, Vin Chnh sch v Chin lc PTNNNT; Mary Hallward-Driemeier, Chuyn gia cao cp; TS. L ng Doanh, Nguyn Vin trng Vin Nghin cu Qun l kinh t Trung ng; Victor Kmmritz, Chuyn gia t vn; William Mako, Chuyn gia t vn; Miles McKenna, Chuyn gia t vn; Martin Molinuevo, Chuyn gia t vn; Ben Shepard, Chuyn gia t vn; Timothy Sturgeon, Vin Cng ngh Massachusetts; TS. Nguyn nh Cung, Vin trng, Vin Nghin cu Qun l Kinh t Trung ng; TS. Nguyn Anh Tun, Vin trng, Vin Chnh sch v Chin lc PTNNNT; TS. Nguyn Th Tu Anh, Ph Vin trng, Vin Nghin cu Qun l kinh t Trung ng; GS. Trn Vn Th, Trng i hc Waseda, Nht Bn; b V Kim Hnh, Gim c Trung tm Nghin cu v H tr Doanh nghip; TS. V Thnh T Anh, Trng i hc Fulbright Vit Nam; Deborah Winkler, Chuyn gia t vn v Chunlin Zhang, Chuyn gia pht trin khu vc t nhn v Ezequiel Zylbeberg, i hc Oxford.

H tr nghin cu: ng Gin Thnh Cng, Chuyn gia t vn.Hng dn v c vn: Nhm nghin cu chn thnh cm n nhng gp v li

khuyn ca ng Danny Leipziger, T chc i thoi tng trng v i hc George Washington; b Catherine Martin, Chuyn vin chin lc v Daniel Street.

Chng Xy dng nng lc i mi sng to quc giaCc tc gi chnh: GS.TSKH. Bnh Tin Long, Nguyn Th trng thng trc B

Gio dc v o to; TS. Michael F. Crawford, Chuyn gia Ngn hng Th gii v Gio dc; TS. L nh Tin, Nguyn Th trng B Khoa hc v Cng ngh v TS. William Maloney, Chuyn gia Kinh t trng.

xxxiiiLI CM N

Cc chuyn gia ng gp nghin cu u vo: Nicholas Blooma, Raissa Ebnerb, Kerenssa Kayc, Renata Lemosd, Raffaella Sadune, Daniela Scurf v John Van Reeneng, T chc iu tra Qun l th gii; Hyunho Kim, i hc Quc gia Chonnam; Joonghae Suh, Vin Pht trin Hn Quc v Deok Soon Yim; Vin Chnh sch Khoa hc v Cng ngh ca Hn Quc; GS. Hyungsun KIM, Trng i hc Inha Hn Quc; ng Nguyn V Hng, Trng ban Chnh sch i mi v th trng cng ngh v ng Nguyn Mnh Qun, Ph Vin trng, Vin Chin lc v Chnh sch Khoa hc v Cng ngh Vit Nam; TS. Nguyn Vn ng, Chuyn vin cao cp B Gio dc v o to, TS. Phm Th Thanh Hi, Ging vin i hc Quc gia H Ni; PGS.TS. Trn Th H, nguyn V trng V Gio dc i hc.

Hng dn v c vn: Nhm nghin cu chn thnh cm n nhng gp v li khuyn ca GS.TS. Hong Vn Phong, Ch tch Hi ng chnh sch khoa hc v cng ngh quc gia, nguyn B trng B Khoa hc v Cng ngh, v TS. Trn Ngc Ca, Trng i din khoa hc v cng ngh Vit Nam ti Oa-sinh-tn, Hoa k; cm n Chnh ph c ti tr thc hin iu tra v cc nh qun l Vit Nam.

Chng th ha v nng cao hiu qu kinh tCc tc gi chnh: TS. Hunh Th Du, Trng Chnh sch cng Fulbright; TS. Somik

Lall, Chuyn gia cao cp, Trng nhm, Ngn hng Th gii; TS. Nguyn Anh Tun, Vin trng, Vin Chnh sch v Chin lc PTNNNT v b Madhu Raghunath, Chuyn gia cao cp v th.

Cc chuyn gia ng gp nghin cu u vo: Luis Blancas, Chuyn gia cao cp v Giao thng; David Bulman, Chuyn gia t vn; TS. ng Kim Khi, Gim c Trung tm T vn Chnh sch Nng nghip, Vin Chnh sch v Chin lc PTNNNT; Edward Leman, Chuyn gia t vn; TS. Nguyn Anh Phong, Vin Chnh sch v Chin lc PTNNNT v Pablo Vaggione, Chuyn gia t vn v TS. Trng Th Thu Trang, Ph Trng B mn, Vin Chnh sch v Chin lc PTNNNT.

Hng dn v c vn: Chn thnh cm n nhng gp v li khuyn ca Zoubida Allaoua, t vn cao cp v vng; Judy Baker, Chuyn gia Kinh t trng; Abhas Jha, Trng nhm th ha; Danny Leipziger, Chuyn gia t vn T chc i thoi tng trng v i hc George Washington; Paul Vallely, Chuyn gia cao cp v giao thng v Anna Wellenstein, Qun l thc tin, Ngn hng Th gii.

xxxiv VIT NAM 2035 - HNG TI THNH VNG, SNG TO, CNG BNG V DN CH

Chng Pht trin bn vng v mi trng v tng cng kh nng chng chu vi bin i kh huCc tc gi chnh: GS.TSKH. Trng Quang Hc, Nguyn Gim c Trung tm Nghin

cu Ti nguyn v Mi trng, i hc Quc gia H Ni v TS. Diji Chandrasekharan Behr, Chuyn gia cao cp v Kinh t ti nguyn mi trng.

Cc thnh vin ch cht ca nhm nghin cu: TS. Anjali Acharya, Chuyn gia cao cp v Mi trng, Ngn hng Th gii; TS. Todd Johnson, Chuyn gia trng v nng lng; GS. Bi Quang Tun, Vin trng Vin Nghin cu pht trin bn vng vng, Vin Hn lm KHXH Vit Nam, v PGS.TS. Nguyn Trung Thng, Ph Vin trng Vin Chin lc, Chnh sch Ti nguyn v Mi trng.

Cc chuyn gia ng gp nghin cu u vo: Tijen Arin, Chuyn gia Kinh t cao cp; Christophe Crepin, Chuyn gia ngnh; Richard Damia, Kinh t trng; Franz Gerner, Chuyn gia trng v nng lng; Sarath Guttikunda, Chuyn gia t vn; Iain Menzies, Chuyn gia cao cp, Tae Yong Jung, i hc Yonsei; Sung Jin Kang, i hc Hn Quc; Joo Young Kwak, i hc Yonsei v TS. Trng Th Thu Trang, Ph Trng B mn, Vin Chnh sch v Chin lc PTNNNT.

H tr nghin cu: B Nguyn Phng Nga, Chuyn gia t vn.Hng dn v c vn: Nhm nghin cu chn thnh cm n nhng gp v li

khuyn ca Carter Brandon, Chuyn gia Kinh t trng; Christophe Crepin; Richard Damania, Chuyn gia chnh; Douglas J. Graham, Chuyn gia cao cp v mi trng v Iain Shuker, Qun l thc tin.

Chng m bo cng bng v thc y ha nhp x hiCc tc gi chnh: PGS.TS. ng Nguyn Anh, Vin trng Vin X hi hc; TS. Gabriel

Demombynes, Chuyn gia cao cp v Philip OKeefe, Chuyn gia trng v Kinh t.Cc thnh vin ch cht ca nhm nghin cu: GS. Giang Thanh Long, Vin trng

Vin Chnh sch cng, i hc Kinh t Quc dn H Ni; TS. Michael Crawford, Chuyn gia trng v Gio dc; TS. Nguyn Thng, Gim c, Trung tm Phn tch v D bo, Vin Hn lm KHXH Vit Nam v TS. Truman Packard, Chuyn gia Kinh t trng; Achim Daniel Schmillen, Chuyn gia Kinh t v Owen Smith, Chuyn gia Kinh t cao cp.

Cng tc vin: Reena Badiani-Magnusson, Chuyn gia Kinh t cao cp; Kari Hurt, Chuyn vin iu hnh cao cp v TS. V Hong Linh, Chuyn gia Kinh t.

xxxvLI CM N

H tr nghin cu: B Trn Th Ngc H, Chuyn gia t vn.Hng dn v c vn: Nhm nghin cu chn thnh cm n nhng gp v li

khuyn ca Ravi Kanbur, i hc Cornell v Ana Revenga, Gim c cp cao.

Chng Th ch hin i v Nh nc hiu quCc tc gi chnh: PGS.TS. Hong Th Lin, Nguyn Th trng thng trc B

T php; TS. Jonathan Pincus, Qu Rajawali, In--n-xi-a v TS. Charlie Undeland, Chuyn gia cao cp v Qun tr Nh nc.

Cc thnh vin ch cht ca nhm nghin cu: TS. Soren Davidsen, Chuyn gia cao cp v khu vc cng; TS. Nguyn Vn Cng, Ph Vin trng Vin Khoa hc Php l B T php v b Trn Th Lan Hng, Chuyn gia cao cp v khu vc cng.

Cc chuyn gia ng gp nghin cu u vo: PGS.TS. Bi Nguyn Khnh, Ph Vin trng Vin Nh nc v Php lut; Noah Buckley, Chuyn gia t vn; GS. Yoon Je Cho, Chuyn gia t vn; TS. Dng Thanh Mai, Nguyn Vin trng Vin Khoa hc Php l, B T php; Maridel Alcaide, Chuyn gia t vn; PGS.TS. Nguyn Nh Pht, Vin trng Vin Nh nc v Php lut, Vin Hn lm KHXH Vit Nam; PGS.TS. Phm Duy Ngha, Trng Chnh sch cng Fulbright; TS. Thang Vn Phc, nguyn Th trng B Ni v v V Hong Quyn, Chuyn gia Kinh t cao cp.

Hng dn v c vn: cc tc gi chn thnh cm n nhng gp v li khuyn ca James Anderson, Gim c Quc gia; Robert Taliercio, Qun l thc tin; Graham Teskey, Trng k thut Qun tr Nh nc, Abt JTA.

Bo co Vit Nam 2035: Hng ti Thnh vng, Sng to, Cng bng v Dn ch c nhm son tho ca Vit Nam hiu nh v r sot, vi s ng gp ca TS. Cao Vit Sinh, Nguyn Th trng thng trc B K hoch v u t, Chuyn gia Cao cp (Ch tr); PGS.TS. Hong Th Lin, Nguyn Th trng thng trc B T php; b Phm Chi Lan, Chuyn gia kinh t cao cp, Nguyn thnh vin Ban nghin cu ca Th tng Chnh ph; TS. V Tr Thnh, Ph Vin trng Vin Nghin cu Qun l Kinh t Trung ng; GS.TSKH. Nguyn Quang Thi, Ph Ch tch kim Tng Th k Hi Khoa hc Kinh t Vit Nam; ng Nguyn Vn Vnh, Ph Vin trng Vin Chin lc pht trin, B K hoch v u t v TS. on Hng Quang, Chuyn gia kinh t cao cp, Ngn hng Th gii ti Vit Nam.

Cc hot ng iu phi d n do Vn phng hnh chnh Ban Ch o thc hin, gm cc thnh vin l: PGS.TS. Bi Tt Thng, Vin trng Vin Chin lc pht trin, Chnh

xxxvi VIT NAM 2035 - HNG TI THNH VNG, SNG TO, CNG BNG V DN CH

Vn phng; ng Nguyn Vn Vnh, Ph Vin trng, Vin Chin lc pht trin, Ph Chnh Vn phng; ng L Quang o, Chnh Vn phng Vin Chin lc pht trin, Ph Chnh Vn phng; ng Nguyn Quc Trng, Trng ban, Ban Cc vn quc t, thnh vin thng trc Vn phng; v cc thnh vin khc thuc Vin Chin lc pht trin gm: b inh Th Ninh Giang, Ph Trng ban, Ban Cc vn quc t; ng ng Huyn Linh, Ph Trng ban, Ban Cc vn quc t; ng on Thanh Tng, Ph trng ban, Ban Nhn lc v cc vn x hi, b Phm L Hu, Ph Chnh Vn phng Vin Chin lc pht trin; b V Thu Trang, b Nguyn Th M Hnh, b Phm Thanh Hin, b Nguyn Th Hng Giang, ng Nguyn ng Hng, b Nguyn Qunh Trang, b Bi Th Thng, ng Phm L Hong v b Phm Minh Tho.

Cc hot ng hnh chnh c phi hp vi cc cn b Vn phng Chnh ph l: ng L Hng Lam, V trng V Quan h quc t; ng Nguyn Hu Lam Sn, chuyn vin; ng H Anh Ti, Chuyn vin V Quan h quc t.

Cc hot ng truyn thng v hnh chnh ca Ngn hng Th gii do b B Th Hng Mai, cn b truyn thng cao cp; b Trn Kim Chi, cn b truyn thng, b V Lan Hng, cn b truyn thng v b V Th Anh Linh, tr l chng trnh thc hin.

B K hoch v u t v Ngn hng Th gii trn trng gii thiu Bo co tng quan Vit Nam 2035: Hng ti Thnh vng, Sng to, Cng bng v Dn ch vi hy vng Bo co Vit Nam 2035 s gip ch cho cc nh lnh o, cc nh qun l, cc c quan nghin cu hoch nh chnh sch ca Vit Nam trong nhng nm ti.

B K hoch v u tB trng

Bi Quang Vinh

Ngn hng Th giiPh Ch tch, Vng Chu Thi Bnh dng

Axel van Trotsenburg

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