HS2 - A Bad Deal for Britain -

July 2014

Seven Areas of Focus

1. Business Case

2. North South Divide

3. Capacity

4. Connectivity

5. Service Cuts

6. Alternatives

7. Public Opinion

Based on Government and HS2 Ltd figures

BUSINESS CASE BUILT ON SAND

The deterioratingbusiness case Phase 1 Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) has fallen from

2.7 (12/09), to 2 (2/11), Now 1.7 (10/13)including “Wider Economic

Impacts” (WEI) On DfT’s normal criteria excluding WEI, now 1.4 Correcting serious flaws in the evaluation would

lead to a BCR of 1.0 or less DfT categorise 1.0 – 1.5 as “low”, below 1.0 as

“poor” Normal pass mark for rail schemes is circa 2.0

The deterioratingbusiness case Absurd assumption no one works on trains remains Multiplied value of over crowding by five:

– To make up for having to cut average value business traveller from £70k

STILL 60%+ of benefit from time savings:– Despite Government saying not about speed– Ignores faster journeys due to planned

improvements = double counting

WON’T CLOSE THE NORTH SOUTH DIVIDE

Economic case:Academic evidence Reducing the North-South divide not supported by

serious academics:– Tendency to benefit the hub (in this case London)

Limited evidence for regeneration

Zero sum game in the regions

Economic case:Evidence from HS1

“Obviously, if you feel that something is going to do good for you, you big it up. We saw that with HS1 in Kent as well, as to all the effects it was going to have. I have to say, they are not visible to the naked eye”

Professor Roger Vickerman (Transport Select Committee 6/9/11)

“Ashford station…has experienced little development and…Ebbsfleet International station has so far only witnessed the building of a park and ride facility”

Economic benefits:KPMG report KPMG forecast in 2013 benefits of £15 billion per annum

This compares with £15.4 billion over the life of the project in August 2012

Expert doubts on the methodology – ‘Jaw dropping omissions’ - Dan Graham, Imperial College and

Henry Overman, LSE, Robert Peston, BBC

….and it doesn’t pass the test of common sense: the benefits forecast by KPMG equate to each £1000 for each additional round trip on

HS2

The French Example

No CAC 40 HQs in Lyon– Connected 1981– None in Marseille or Lille

82% of CAC 40 HQs in Paris

France 0.7 growth 2014 Contracting

manufacturing sector

CAPACITY MYTH

Is business travel declining?

Business trips per person by all modes have fallen by 22% since 1995/97 (DfT National Travel Survey)

Virgin Rail has stated growth is concentrated on off-peak and at weekends

Euston evening peak load factors for Virgin only 52.2%– Counts for 2011 – before any 11 car sets introduced– DfT refuse Freedom of Information requests for data – Finally released to the High Court as part of the December 2012

judicial review

Service group (long distance services into London) Load factor (3 hour morning peak - 2010)

Paddington (Main Line and other fast trains) 99%

Waterloo (South West Main Line) 91%

St.Pancras (Midland Main Line) 80%

Liverpool Street (Great Eastern Main Line) 78%

Victoria (fast trains via East Croydon) 72%

Kings Cross (ECML long distance) 65%

Euston (long distance) 60%

St.Pancras (HS1 domestic) 41%

WCML one of least overcrowded main line routes into London

Morning Peak Load FactorsNetwork Rail London & SE Route Utilisation

July 2012

DfT data on peak usage

Total peak and off-peak capacity and critical loads on train services arriving at and departing from London Euston on a typical autumn weekday: 2010 to 2012

2010 % Loading 2011 % Loading % change 2012 % Loading % change

Total capacity Total critical load Total capacity Total critical load no passengers Total capacity Total critical load no passengers

Long distance 3 hour AM peak arrivals 12,438 7,510 60.4% 12,255 8,327 67.9% 10.9% 12,255 8,000 65.3% -3.9%

(virgin services) 1 hour AM peak arrivals 4,902 2,963 60.4% 4,902 3,487 71.1% 17.7% 4,902 3,149 64.2% -9.7%

3 hour PM peak departures 14,011 7,085 50.6% 14,109 8,062 57.1% 13.8% 14,011 7,961 56.8% -1.3%

1 hour PM peak departures 4,902 2,591 52.9% 4,902 2,952 60.2% 13.9% 4,902 2,886 58.9% -2.2%

Long distance Virgin services using Euston – source DfT

The data is before 35 out of 56 Pendolinos lengthened from 9 to 11 cars (providing a further 150 standard class seats in each lengthened set).

Assuming 20 out of the 29 Pendolinos leaving Euston in the evening peak are now 11 car sets, the standard class load factor drops to 45.8% (and 43% overall).

........ they are at best half full, but is there more capacity if it’s needed?

Virgin West Coast results

Passenger mile growth [Stagecoach Annual report]– 2009/10 - 20.4%– 2010/11 - 9.3%– 2011/12 - 4.6%– 2012/13 – 0.9%

The slow down is not just on West Coast: East Coast passenger miles grew by only 0.5% in 2012/13

But HS2 Ltd state “Our demand forecasts are conservative, not optimistic. We assume 2.5% a year growth in passenger

numbers…..”

Who is HS2 for?

Rail gets £6.8bn/a subsidy - 35% of government transport spend Rail users are relatively affluent - 47% of long distance journeys made by the

top 20% income households……less than 0.2% of trips are by long distance rail

Pricing

Assumption that will be no premium for travelling on HS2 over classic service

Results in unrealistic passenger forecasts HS1 costs 20% premium Ticket price rises on classic service above rest of

country to pay for HS1

CONNECTIVITY

HS2 will not…

Create a ‘green spine’ – its is not even carbon neutral Connect Newcastle, York, Leeds, Sheffield, Nottingham and Birmingham Link Stoke-on-Trent to London Reduce the crush on Coventry to Birmingham commute Not provide express commuter services between northern cities

(Northern Hub will provide a link) Improve East - West links – Liverpool – Manchester – Leeds - Hull Link Wales Improve commuting for Peterborough and Luton (Thamselink) Improve links to Corby (Midland Mainline)

HIDDEN NASTIES

Cuts to existing services

2013 business case delivers £8.3 billion of cuts to existing services:– Up from £7.7 billion in 4th

business case

12 towns and cities lose one direct train an hour

15 with longer journey times– Carlisle 53 minutes longer

Means no freight benefits southern WCML

No space to meet suburban commuter demand

Phase 2 Cuts

City/Town Current Service Service Post HS2 Phase 2 Service Change SummaryHS2 Service (Phase 2

only)

Peterborough 3 trains/hour(2 non-stop)

4 trains/hour, but only 1 non-stop Loss of 1 non-stop service Nil

Doncaster 3/4 trains/hour,2 with only 1 intermediate stop

3 trains/ hour(1 with 1 stop, others with 4/5 stops)

Increased journey times by approx 10/15 mins

Nil

Wakefield 2 trains/hour(1 with 2 stops, 1 with 3 stops)

1 trains/hour, with 5 stops Loss of one train/hour and approx 10 -15 min. longer journey time

Nil

Berwick on Tweed 1 train/hourwith 3 intermediate stops

1 train/hour with 7 intermediate stops Approx 20 min. longer journey time

Nil

Aberdeen, Dundee, Inverness

Through services to Aberdeen (3 daily) and Inverness (1 daily)

No through trains Nil

SUPERIOR ALTERNATIVES

51m Alternative

Delivers a major increase in passenger capacity – more than enough to meet DfT’s exagerated growth forecasts

Reconfigure one first class car to standard Longer trains – 12 car except for Liverpool - stays 11 car because of

constraints at Lime Street Seats per set change from 145/294 to 94/594 (Standard class

increase of 102%) New trains and construction of a flyover will enable fast peak

capacity for Milton Keynes/Northampton to be doubled before 2026!

DfT’s own consultants (WS Atkins) showed this alternative had a Benefit Cost Ratio of 6, compared with 1.7 for HS2

51m Alternative

Segregates InterCity trains and freight on the core of the route, improving reliability, increasing freight capacity and reducing transit times

Additional track between Rugby and Nuneaton Stafford rail by-pass

The capital cost of the alternative is c10% of HS2,and it can be delivered flexibly and quickly, as

and when needed – in contrast HS2 is an “all or nothing” solution, with no benefits until 2026

VOTERS DON’T WANT IT

Even with wild claims of closures

October 2013

£2 million of PR later

May 2014

North don’t believe it will help the North

April 2014

HS2 and Voting Intentions

52% nationally oppose plans to build HS2, while around 30% support them

One fifth (19%) say they are more likely to support Labour if the party opposed HS2

28% are less likely to vote Conservative because of their plans to build HS2.

Comres March 2014

EVEN WESTMINSTER DOESN’T AGREE

Would you support or oppose the complete scrapping of HS2 and a return to the drawing board in terms of planning for increased rail

capacity and new rail services?

Support – 30% Oppose – 53% Don’t know – 14% Not stated – 3%

Full cross party support ?

The Case For/Against HS2

THE MYTHSound investmentWe need the capacityHeals North/South divideIt’s green Radically reduce air flightsUK must catch-up with the EU

THE REALITYIt’s not value for moneyNo, & there are alternativesWon’t rebalance economyIt’s not even carbon neutralThe facts don’t support thisUK already has a fast intercity network

HS2 is a waste of money and the wrong priority