HRRR Primary
description
Transcript of HRRR Primary
HRRRPrimary
FAA-CoSPA
NCEPESRL/GSD/AMB
RAPDev1
RAPv2Primary
HRRRDev1
RAPv1NCO
RAPDev2
RAPRetro
HRRRRetro
Retrospective Real-Time
HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR Milestones
RAP/HRRR internal verification
NWS-AWIPS
WEB
RAP/HRRR Model Development and Eval
FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 1NOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 1Aviation Model Development
HRRR 12 hr fcst availability Includes all missed/incomplete runs
HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHRRR Availability – getting it out
CoSPA Evaluation PeriodsDevelopment and Upgrade Periods
3 month running average
FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 2NOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 2Aviation Model Development
Jet or Zeus (union)
HRRR 12 hr fcst availability Includes all missed/incomplete runs
Jet (HRRR primary) Zeus (HRRR backup)
HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHRRR Dual-Computer Availability
FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 3NOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 3Aviation Model Development
Jet or Zeus (union)Jet (HRRR primary) Zeus (HRRR backup)
HRRR 12 hr fcst availability Excludes two (or fewer) consecutive missed/incomplete runs
HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHRRR Dual-Computer Availability
FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 4NOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 4Aviation Model Development
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrraviation/ (hourly output) Feedback from AWC
Aviation specific forecast fields:
Convection (intensity and depth)Ceiling and VisibilityFlight RulesSurface WindPrecip TypeSnowfall
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrraviation15min/ (sub-hourly output)
HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHRRR Aviation Websites
FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 5NOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 5Aviation Model Development
HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR Milestones
CoSPA Evaluation PeriodsDevelopment and Upgrade Periods
3 month running average
HRRR Latency – getting it out fast
FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 6
2013 HRRR changes permitted ~45 min reduction in latency
2013CoSPA period
2012CoSPA period
CoSPA periodCoSPA
period
+2:30+1:45
NOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 6Aviation Model Development
3-km Interp
2012 HRRR Initialization from RAP
GSI 3D-VAR
Obs
GSI HM Anx
DigitalFilter
1 hr
fcst
HMObs
ReflObs18 hr fcst
15 hr fcst 3-km Interp
GSI 3D-VAR
Obs
GSI HM Anx
DigitalFilter
1 hr
fcst
HMObs
ReflObs18 hr fcst
15 hr fcst 3-km Interp
GSI 3D-VAR
Obs
GSI HM Anx
DigitalFilter
HMObs
ReflObs18 hr fcst
15 hr fcst
13 km RAP
3 km HRRR
13z 14z 15z
3-km Interp
2013 HRRR Initialization from RAP
GSI Hybrid
Obs
GSI HM Anx
DigitalFilter
1 hr
fcst
HMObs
ReflObs18 hr fcst
GSI Hybrid
Obs
GSI HM Anx
DigitalFilter
1 hr
fcst
HMObs
ReflObs18 hr fcst
GSI Hybrid
Obs
GSI HM Anx
DigitalFilter
HMObs
ReflObs18 hr fcst
3 km HRRR
13z 14z 15z13 km RAP
Refl Obs
1 hr pre-fcst Obs
GSI HM Anx
GSI 3D-VAR HMO
bs
15 hr fcst
GFSEns GFS
Ens GFSEns
45 minof reducedlatency
Radar Obs05:00z 18 May
2013
0-hr fcst3-km radar
DA
0-hr fcstNO 3-km radar
DA
05z + 0 min
3-km radar data assimilation: Eliminating the spin-up problem
Radar Obs05:15z 18 May
2013
Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts
05z + 15 min
15-min fcst3-km radar
DA
15-min fcstNO 3-km radar
DA
FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 10NOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 10Aviation Model Development
Radar Obs05:30z 18 May
2013
Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts
05z + 30 min
30-min fcst3-km radar
DA
30-min fcstNO 3-km radar
DA
FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 11NOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 11Aviation Model Development
Radar Obs05:45z 18 May
2013
Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts
05z + 45 min
45-min fcst3-km radar
DA
45-min fcstNO 3-km radar
DA
FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 12NOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 12Aviation Model Development
Radar Obs06:00z 18 May
2013
Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts
05z + 1 hour
1-hr fcst3-km radar
DA
1-hr fcstNO 3-km radar
DA
FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 13NOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 13Aviation Model Development
Radar Obs06:30z 18 May
2013
Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts
05z + 1:30 min
1-hr 30m fcst3-km radar
DA
1-hr 30m fcstNO 3-km radar
DA
FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 14NOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 14Aviation Model Development
Radar Obs07:00z 18 May
2013
Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts
05z + 2hr min
2-hr fcst3-km radar
DA
2-hr fcstNO 3-km radar
DA
FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 15
Radar Obs08:00z 18 May
2013
Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts
05z + 3hr
3-hr fcst3-km radar
DA
3-hr fcstNO 3-km radar
DA
FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 16
HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesContinued HRRR Improvement in 2013
2013 HRRR2012 HRRR
Critical Success Index (CSI) skill score
Verification June 1- Sept. 30(respective seasons)
CoSPA: Collaborative effort: ESRL/GSD, NCAR/RAL, MIT/LLProvide 0-8 hr thunderstorm intensity and echo top guidance to aviation community
HRRR 15 UTC 08 July 20116 hr forecast valid 21 UTC
VIL
Echo
Top
CoSPA 17 UTC 08 July 20114 hr forecast valid 21 UTC
ObservationValid 21 UTC 08 July 2011
Blend with CIWS
HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHRRR use in CoSPA
FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 18
10-11 hr fcst
09-10 hr fcst
08-09 hr fcst
11-12 hr fcst
10-11 hr fcst
09-10 hr fcst
Forecasts valid 21-22z 27 April 2011 Forecasts valid 22-23z 27 April 2011
All six forecastscombined to formprobabilities valid22z 27 April 2011
HRRR 11z Init
HRRR 12z Init
HRRR 13z Init
Time-lagged Ensemble
Spatial radius 45 kmTime radius 1 hrUH threshold 25 m2/s2
FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 20
Example: 28 August 2013Convectiondevelops in NYCterminal areasaround 16 UTC
FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 21
Obs valid 16z 28 Aug 2013
HRRR Conv Prob Fcst (HCPF)02 hr fcst valid 16z 28 Aug 2013
Convective coverage now over much of extreme E PA and NJ
Probability exceeds 40%
Aviation hazard forecasts – all based on RAP and HRRR models (out to 15-18h)
Hourly updated 13km Rapid Refresh model forecasts
(development supported by FAA/MDE, NOAA)
Refreshing from latest observations every hour gives better accuracy
• 2013 - early 2014 – 2 computers running identical HRRR (and RAPv2) – interim solution– Boulder – computer 1– Fairmont, WV – computer 2– Expected reliability at 98.5-99% via coordination of
downtimes for Boulder vs. Fairmont computers
• 2014 – NCEP running RAPv2 (FYQ1) and HRRR (FYQ2)– RAPv2 running in NCEP/NCO testing now– Effort underway to begin testing HRRR at NCEP
HRRR Transition to NCEP
FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 23
24NCEPESRL
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Rapid Refreshfor Aviation, Severe Weather, Energy
Air Quality
WRF NMMWRF ARW
WRF: NMM+ARW ETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model
MostlySatellite+Radar
North AmericanMesoscaleWRF NMM
North American Ensemble Forecast System
Hurricane GFDLHWRF
GlobalForecastSystem
Dispersion
ARL’s HYSPLIT
Forecast
Severe Weather
ClimateCFS
~2B Obs/Day
Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast
NOAA’s Current NWP Model Production Suite
MOM3Coupled
Global DataAssimilation
OceansHYCOM
WaveWatch III
NAM+CMAQ
NCEP overview
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History – NCEP (NMC) Implementations of FAA-funded high-frequency models with aviation focus
1994 First operational implementation of RUC60km resolution, 3-h cycle
1998 40km resolution, 1-h cycle, Cloud physics, land-surface model2002 20km resolution
GOES cloud data assimilation 2003 Change to 3dVAR analysis for improved assimilation2005 13km resolution
New observation types (METAR cloud, GPS-PW, new cloud physics)
2008 Assim of radar reflectivity, mesonet winds,2012 WRF/GSI-based Rapid Refresh (RAP) replaced RUC2013 (Dec) RAP version 2 – improved storm environment2014 (Mar) HRRR version 1 – 3km
Weather Model Development for Aviation – development of the Rapid Refresh
(RAP) and HRRR models– application of HRRR and RAP to
aviation applications– hourly data assimilation of latest
observations to initialize the RAP and HRRR
– Implementation of RAP and HRRR to NOAA operational models at NCEP
– inter-lab/center interactions • Development - NCAR, MIT/LL, U.
Oklahoma, NCEP• Operational evaluation - NWS
Regions/Offices, AWC, SPC, HPC, FAA• Implementation – NCEP (EMC, NCO)
Obs radar21z Sept 16 2010
08z+13h HRRRValid 21z
Weather Model Development for Aviation – inter-lab/center interactions
• Development – – NCAR, – MIT/LL– U. Oklahoma– NCEP (National Centers for Environmental
Prediction – within NWS/NOAA)• Operational evaluation
– NWS Regions (Eastern, Central, Southern, Western, Alaska)
– NWS Forecast Offices (~125 of them)– Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City, MO – Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK– FAA
• Implementation – NCEP (EMC, NCO) at NOAA/National Weather Service
Obs radar21z Sept 16 2010
08z+13h HRRRValid 21z
Purpose of FAA Model Development and Enhancement (MDE) Team
• Improve accuracy of hourly updated weather models, needed especially for increasing aviation requirements.
• NOAA Research (GSD) leads and coordinates MDE project with other labs -- NCAR, NOAA operations (NWS, NCEP), universities, MIT/Lincoln Labs
• Steady improvement in weather model guidance is critical to meet future requirements for National Air Space in NextGen era.
MDE Product Development Team is the focal point for this effort (along with NOAA operations).
NOAA/ESRL/GSD 12 July 2012 29Aviation Model Development
13-km 6hr forecast HRRR 6hr forecast
13-kmResolution
ParameterizedConvection
3-kmResolution
ExplicitConvection
HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesKey Advantage of 3-km HRRR
ACCURATESTORM
STRUCTURE
ACCURATE ESTIMATE OFPERMABILITY
NOSTORM
STRUCTURE
NO ESTIMATE OF PERMEABILITY
07 June 2012
5 PM EDTobserved
FPAW - 2013 24 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 30
Take-home Messages• NOAA HRRR/RAP weather model grids are the backbone for
most aviation hazard guidance products for 1-18h duration, including– G2G-turbulence, – FIP-icing– Upper-level winds– Ceiling/visibility– Terminal forecasts
• Improvements dependent on transforming increases in atmospheric scientific understanding and computer resources
• Sustained FAA support has given substantial improvement to US aviation weather guidance
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