How Unmarried Women, Youth, and People of Color Defined the 2012 Election

How unmarried women, youth and people of color defined this election

December 12, 2012

2

Methodology and Specifications

This presentation is based on a survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps.

The survey of 1001 likely 2012 voters nationwide was conducted from November 5-7, 2012.

Survey results weighted to reflect National Exit Survey.

Unless otherwise noted, margin of error= +/-3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence.

Obama McCain Obama Romney Obama McCain Obama Romney

69 67

4035

30 32

59 63

Obama Romney

+39

By Holding the RAE, Obama Held the White House

Rising American Electorate

+35 +19

Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for -- Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney?

3

Non-Rising American Electorate

+28

2008 2012 2008 2012

*Note: 2008 results reflect the findings of the combined WVWV/CAF/RR/DCOR post-election results.

© Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 4

Unmarried Women Decided this election

2008 2012 2008 2012 2008 2012 2008 2012 2008 2012

45

20 1813

9

48

2319

1310

RAE Nearly Half the 2012 Electorate

5

Rising American Electorate

Unmarried women

YouthAfrican

Americans

+3 +3 +1 +1

Percent of the Electorate

Hispanics

-

*Note: Survey Results Reflect Estimates From Edison/Mitofsky/CNN exit polls.

Obama McCain Obama Romney



6660

7067 67

71

3237

30 31 3127

+34

Youth (18-29)

+23

6

2008 2012

+40

Unmarried Women

+36

2008 2012

+36

Hispanics

+44

2008 2012

Obama Holds Unmarried Women and Grows Hispanic Support

*Note: results come from Edison/Mitofsky/CNN exit polls.


Dem Cand

Rep Cand

Dem Cand

Rep Cand

Dem Cand

Rep Cand

Dem Cand

Rep Cand

Dem Cand

Rep Cand

Dem Cand

Rep Cand

48

69

42

57

45

69

51

29

56

41

54

30

Congressional Democrats Rebound from 2010 Among Unmarried Women

Now let me ask you about the election for Congress, did you vote for -- (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)?

7*Note: 2008 results reflect the findings of the combined WVWV/CAF/RR/DCOR post-election results,

-3 +40

43Marriage Gap:

Married Women

Unmarried Women

-14 +16

30

-9 +39

48

Married Women

Unmarried Women

Married Women

Unmarried Women

2008 2010 2012

Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney

4555

46

67

5244

53

31

Gender Gap is Big, but Marriage Gap is Huge

Men

8

Women

-7 +11 -7 +36

Gender Gap: 18 Marriage Gap: 43

Married Women Unmarried Women



9

Conservative Validation

“Far more significant than the gender gap is the marriage gap. And what was made

clear in the 2012 election was that the cohorts of unmarried women and men are now at historic highs — and are still

increasing.” -Jonathan Last

10

Obama-Romney

Obama-Romney Marriage gap

Married women 46-53 Unmarried women 67-31 43

White married women 37-62 White unmarried women 52-46 31

Non-white married women 78-22 Non-white unmarried women 91-7 28

Married women under 30 53-45

Unmarried women under 30 71-26 37

Married women, non-college 41-58

Unmarried women, non-college 68-31 54

Married women, college 49-49 Unmarried women, college 67-31 36

Married women, battleground states 46-53

Unmarried women, battleground states 65-33 39

Marriage Gap Extends Throughout the Electorate


61

48

63

45

71

53

69

47

36

52

36

54

27

47

28

52

Romney Obama

+29

Colorado11

Unmarried Women

Married Women

Marriage Gap in Battleground States

*Note: Results come from Edison/Mitofsky/CNN exit polls.


+36

Florida

Unmarried Women

Married Women

+38

Iowa

Unmarried Women

Married Women

+46

Nevada

Unmarried Women

Married Women

Marriage Gap:

63

54

66

47

64

46

67

50

35

45

33

52

35

53

32

50

Romney Obama

+19

New Hampshire12

Unmarried Women

Married Women

Marriage Gap in Battleground States

*Note: Results come from Edison/Mitofsky/CNN exit polls.


+38

Ohio

Unmarried Women

Married Women

+36

Virginia

Unmarried Women

Married Women

+35

Wisconsin

Unmarried Women

Married Women

Marriage Gap:

13

Se-ries

1

0 25 50

27

21

30

26

39

21

18

13

26

19

Now let me read you a list of reasons to support Barack Obama. Which THREE describe the most important reasons why you voted for Barack Obama?

Leadership and National Security

Support Women and Minorities

Social Insurance

Took out Osama bin Laden and ended wars in Iraq and Afghanistan

Stood up for minorities and equal rights, like the Dream Act

Respect him as a leader

For Planned Parenthood, preventive health care and pay equity for women

Will get millionaires to pay higher taxes and pay their fair share

Will protect Medicare and Social Security from cuts

Passed Affordable Health Care Act for all

His jobs plan for American energy, auto efficiency, infrastructure and more teachers

Brought America through the economic crisis and needs more time

Rescued U.S. auto industry

#1 reason people voted for Obama – brought us through economic crisis

Economic Action

14

Women’s Narrative a Leading Reason to Support President among Unmarried Women

Now let me read you a list of reasons to support Barack Obama. Which THREE describe the most important reasons why you voted for Barack Obama? Total RAE

Unmarried Women

Brought America through the economic crisis and needs more time 40 40 34

Passed Affordable Health Care Act for all 30 27 23

Took out Osama bin Laden and ended wars in Iraq and Afghanistan 27 32 24

For Planned Parenthood, preventive health care and pay equity for women 26 23 30

Will protect Medicare and Social Security from cuts 26 27 30

Respect him as a leader 21 21 23

His jobs plan for American energy, auto efficiency, infrastructure and more teachers

21 23 23

Stood up for minorities and equal rights, like the Dream Act 19 20 21

Will get millionaires to pay higher taxes and pay fair share 18 19 19

Rescued U.S. auto industry 13 10 9

Could not vote for Romney 10 11 13

Plan to change Medicare and raise costs for seniors

15

Series1

0 25 50

28

27

20

19

17

24

16

30

15

27

14

Let me read you a list of doubts about Mitt Romney. Regardless of how you voted, which THREE describe the most important reasons NOT to vote for Mitt Romney?

For rich and out of touch

Threats to Social Insurance

Leadership Qualities

His statement that he doesn't care about the "47 percent"

Being against Planned Parenthood and preventive health services for women

Stands for Tea Party Republicans who produce gridlock in Washington

Would increase military spending and let generals decide whether to keep troops in Afghanistan

Changed positions so often we don't know what he believes

For the Bush trickle down policies that caused the economic crash

Wants more tax cuts for the wealthy

Would repeal Obamacare

Voted against Romney because out-of-touch and for the rich above all

With the rich and out of touch with average people

Closed companies and shipped jobs abroad when CEO of Bain Capital

Foreign Policy

Women

16

Women’s Narrative Hurts Romney Among Unmarried Women

Let me read you a list of doubts about Mitt Romney. Regardless of how you voted, which THREE describe the most important reasons NOT to vote for Mitt Romney? Total RAE

Unmarried Women

Being against Planned Parenthood and preventive health services for women 27 27 33

Changed positions so often we don't know what he believes 30 28 29

His statement that he doesn't care about the "47 percent" 27 31 33

With the rich and out of touch with average people 28 32 35

Plan to change Medicare and raise costs for seniors 24 25 28

Wants more tax cuts for the wealthy 20 20 18

Closed companies and shipped jobs abroad when CEO of Bain Capital 19 14 11

For the Bush trickle down policies that caused the economic crash 17 19 22

Would repeal Obamacare 16 16 19

Stands for Tea Party Republicans who produce gridlock in Washington 15 15 13

Would increase military spending and let generals decide whether to keep troops in Afghanistan

14 17 11

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |

6560 60

57

89 90

6864

32

40 38 40

10 9

29

34

0

20

40

60

80

100

2006 2010 2006 2010 2006 2010 2006 2010

Democrat Republican

Now let me ask you about the election for Congress. Did you vote for (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)?

Unmarried Women* Youth** African

American** Hispanic**

+20+33 +17+22 +81+79 +30+39

**Note: Results reflect CNN/Edison Miftosky exit poll figures*Note: 2006 and 2008 results reflect Democracy Corps Post Election Research

Looking Ahead: Will 2014 Look Like 2006 or 2010

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Agenda Moving Forward

Now that Barack Obama has won another term in office and we have a Republican Congress, which two or three of the following do you believe should be the first priority of Congress and the President: Total RAE

Unmarried Women

Invest in education, including hiring 100,000 more teachers, more Pell Grants for college and investing in early childhood education.

33 41 37

Protect Social Security and Medicare from significant cuts 33 34 36

Support a grand bargain to reduce the deficit where Democrats agree to cuts in spending and Republicans agree to tax increases for the wealthy

30 27 27

Invest in an "all of the above" energy strategy that exploits domestic oil, gas and coal, but also expands new, clean energy like wind, solar and bio-fuels.

29 24 25

Pass a new jobs bill that increases exports and rebuilds roads, bridges and economic infrastructure

25 21 14

Crack down on companies that pay women LESS money if they perform THE SAME job as their male colleagues

18 23 29

Raise taxes on top earners to help reduce the deficit and pay for important programs. 12 13 14

Fully implement the health care reform law 12 13 15

Protect Planned Parenthood and women's health care choices, including the right to choose to have an abortion.

14 18 21

Protect programs for the vulnerable, including food stamps and Medicaid 12 13 15

Gov’t should do more to solve problems

Gov’t is doing too many things better left to

businesses and individu-als

Gov’t should do more to solve problems

Gov’t is doing too many things better left to

businesses and individu-als

44

5156

38

Progressive Role for Government

19

-12 +13

Unmarried Women

Which is closer to your view:

*Note: Results Reflect Estimates From Edison/Mitofsky/CNN exit polls.

Total

EUROPEAN HEADQUARTERS405 Carrington House6 Hertford StreetLondon, UK W1J 7SUT: +44.(0).207.096.5070F: +44.(0).207.096.5068

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www.greenbergresearch.com | www.gqrr.com

www.voterparticipation.org@VoterCenter

Successes to Date and Looking Forward

www.wvwvaf.org@Women_Vote

2012: Unmarried Women Breakthrough

“We knew exactly who we had to go get – [unmarried women, Latinos, African Americans] --and that's how we got the

turnout numbers that mattered." Obama Campaign Manager Jim Messina, Rolling Stone, 12/7/12

“Who wins them at the end of the day, wins the election.”- Chuck Todd NBC News, 11/5/12

“The big story of the night was single women,”- Meghan Daum, Los Angeles Times, 11/8/12

2012 Registration ProgramOver 875,000 Americans returned registration applications for an average return rate

of 8.3% at an average cost of $5.10 per application.

www.voterparticipation.org VPC Cycle Counts 12/4/12

2012 Registration

Total People of Color Young People Unmarried Women

875,000

380,000 364,000300,000

24

Bending the Voter Registration Cost Curve

2004 2008 2012

www.voterparticipation.org

Cost per App: $9.79 $7.65 $5.10

Cost per Voter: $13.73 $11.32 $7.53

VR Response %: 2.90% 4.51% 8.29%

25

Crossing Platforms


•Integrated trackable URLs into mailings in states with online registration (CO, IN, NV, OR) .

•Added QR codes for mobile use. 34,000 mail recipients used QR codes or URLs to check their registration status online.

•Ran online campaigns including Facebook and Google ads, registering an additional 12,000 voters and generating 60,000 “clicks”. Ads featuring state flags worked best.

Vote By Mail

Partnering with the League of Conservation Voters Education Fund, VPC mailed a combined 1.8 million VBM application

forms to RAE members and high scoring true green modeled individuals.

Resulting VBM Requests 140,000

27

Bending the Vote By Mail Cost Curve2004 2008 Sept 2012


Cost per App: $8.92 $6.26 $5.10

Cost per (Early) Voter: $12.38 $9.79 $7.85

VBM Response %: 4.80% 5.51% 8.29%

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Looking Ahead: Importance of Absentee/Early VoteVPC program responders voted early/absentee (AVEV) at rate that was 25% higher than that of the average voter and 14% higher than newly registered

voters in general.

CO NV NM NC OH WA WI -

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

77

58

36

50

29

72

20

58

45

31 41

19

66

10

Absentee/Early Vote: VPC vs. Overall

VPC Program Responders Overall

Perc

ent V

oted

Abs

ente

e/Ea

rly

Source: Catalist Records, December 3, 2012

29

Looking Ahead: More Lessons for 2014 and 2016Run a quarterly mailings program.

Improve List technology and the ability to match and target names more accurately.

Grow the suite of registration tools –including online.

Speak to and advocate for the policy agenda that helped motivate the RAE and UMW this year.

Make voting easier, not harder.

www.voterparticipation.org@VoterCenter

www.wvwvaf.org@Women_Vote

How Unmarried Women, Youth, and People of Color Defined the 2012 Election

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