How to Predict an Airline Financial Crisis · So in Theory, Monitoring the Factors can Predict a...
Transcript of How to Predict an Airline Financial Crisis · So in Theory, Monitoring the Factors can Predict a...
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How to Predict an Airline Financial Crisis
14 April 2016
Prepared for:
Aircraft Finance and Lease Russia & CIS Conference
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1. WHO WE ARE
2. THEORY
3. PRACTICE
20 min presentation 5 min Q&A
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One of the World’s Largest, Most Experienced Aviation Firms
53 years in air transport 100 aviation staff Covering the whole industry More than 150 airlines clients
WHO WE ARE
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ICF has End-to-end Aviation Industry Capability in 4 Specialized Practices
WHO WE ARE
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Andras Bognar - the Presenter
WHO WE ARE
Economist
Airline, Airport and MRO specialist
13 years in the industry
Speaks Russian
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1. WHO WE ARE
2. THEORY
3. PRACTICE
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Without a Turnaround Financiers are Likely to Lose Everything
THEORY
Airlines tend to be highly leveraged
The business is seasonal
–Little cash off season
Airline cash-flow is quickly disrupted at the hint of bankruptcy
Employees are paid before creditors –Airlines have many employees
Airline assets lose value quickly
Without Turnaround
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With a Turnaround Chances of Creditors Being Paid are Better
THEORY
Creditors may recover 40-70% of their money
Creditors may recover ~3% of their money
With Turnaround
Without Turnaround
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THEORY
Two Case Scenarios of Bankruptcies
American Airlines: –After bankruptcy announcement:
–Unsecured bonds dropped from 0.4 USD to 0.16 USD / 1 USD
–Secured bonds traded at 0.75 USD / 1 USD
– Eventually, all unsecured debt was converted to shares and shares recovered
–Airport bonds also suffered
–Airlines are likely to re-negotiate their rents during a bankruptcy
Malev: – Unsecured creditors expect less
than 2%
• VEB among them
With Turnaround
Without Turnaround
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Problems Tend to Build-up Over Time and can be of any Length
THEORY
denial
hidden
crisis
disintegration
collapse
Examples
• 7 years for Kingfisher
• 12 years for Malev
• 2-3 years for Transaero
Prediction is needed
to avoid the worst
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External factors Internal factors
Good Financial Results are Triggered by Many Factors
THEORY
Competitive advantage
Economic factors
Organi-sational factors
Legal and political factors
Absolute cost advantage
Relative cost advantage
Product differentiation
E.g. lower
fuel costs
E.g. bigger
aircraft
E.g. better
FFP
E.g. leaner
organisation
E.g. international
route rights
Macro economic factors
Competition
E.g. exchange
rate
E.g. capacity
addition
Good financial results
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So in Theory, Monitoring the Factors can Predict a Crisis
THEORY
For example “Altman Z-score” formula predicts the likelihood of bankruptcy:
–Where
–x1, x2, x3, etc. are different financial ratios of the company
–a, b, c, etc. are their weightings
–And if Z is below a certain value, then bankruptcy is threatening
Z = a*x1 + b*x2 + c*x3 + etc.
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A Similar Logic is Applied to Credit Rating
THEORY
Source: www.theairlineanalyst.com
Variables
Weighting
Combined
Score
Interpretation
Scores
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1. WHO WE ARE
2. THEORY
3. PRACTICE
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But Quantitative Prediction Doesn’t Always Work…
PRACTICE
Not all factors are possible to measure
– E.g. passenger loyalty
Not all factors are being disclosed by the airlines
– E.g. details of business plans
External factors are too many
– E.g. competitors increasing capacity, political events, etc.
Financial reports show highly aggregated information
– Hard to see behind them
Financial reports summarise the past
– But we want to see events in advance, not ex-post
Management tends to show a picture more favourable for themselves
– E.g. favourable leasing rates but unfavourable return conditions
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Formulas Need to be Supported by Judgment
PRACTICE
Sign Interpretation
1 Airline not making money in summer (high season)
• It will certainly lose money during the whole year
2 Airline expands into long-haul flights
• Long-haul represents a much higher financial risk than short-haul
• E.g. Norwegian suffered financially when long-haul expansion did not go according to plans at first
3 CEOs changing less than every 2 years
• Frequent changes of CEOs mean they can’t figure out the solutions to the problems
• New CEOs tend to change lower level management as well
• Industry outsider CEOs need min. 2 years to start to “feel the business”
4 High unit costs • High unit costs demand high unit revenues • But the airline business is cyclical and yields tend to fall
eventually • E.g. SAS
Suspicious Signs
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Suspicious Signs (Continued)
PRACTICE
Sign Interpretation
5 Too many aircraft types in the fleet
• Complexity drives higher costs • E.g. TAROM has 23 aircraft and 6 sub-fleets
6 Fleet renewal / expansion at all costs
• Buying aircraft during good years of the cycle means aircraft will be expensive
• Young aircraft mean less flexibility to decrease capacity when needed
• E.g. South East Asian airlines recently • E.g. Kingfisher ordering A380s
7 Capacity indiscipline • Adding capacity at the top of the cycle (or during the downturn) means overcapacity during the downturn
8 Building a transfer hub at all costs
• Usually happens because local market is small • But transfer traffic is very price sensitive
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Suspicious Signs (Continued)
PRACTICE
Sign Interpretation
9 “Everything” done in house
• E.g. in-house MRO, Catering, Ground Handling, Tour Agency, etc.
• Usually leads to many sub-scale businesses with uncompetitive cost levels.
• Distracts management attention from core business • Ties down capital
10 Turnaround “half done”
• E.g. financially restructured, but not operationally • E.g. salaries decreased, but nothing more • Temporary solutions will bring only temporary results
11 Acquisitions • Especially harmful is the acquisition of “losers” • E.g. Swissair’s “Hunter Strategy” buying Sabena, South African
Airways, etc. • E.g. Kingfisher buying Air Deccan
12 Organisational inertia
• Inability to take decisions in a highly competitive environment • Typical of government-owned airlines
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Suspicious Signs (Continued)
PRACTICE
Sign Interpretation
13 Schedule unreliability
• Schedule disruptions in many cases are symptoms of operational disintegration of the airline
• E.g. strikes over late payments of salaries • E.g. ground handlers demanding upfront payment
14 Glamourous headquarters
• In a very competitive transportation business office luxury is not sustainable
• E.g. Pan Am headquarters in the centre of Manhattan • E.g. Air India headquarters in the most expensive part of
Mumbai
15 Consuming the reserves
• This is suspicious when it happens contrary to previous practices
• E.g. selling slots (not exchanging them) • E.g. selling and leasing back aircraft
16 CEO / President denying the crisis
• If the airline has no cash reserves left the CEO / President needs to prevent a panic
• If the airline has cash the CEO / President can admit the problems and say they are working on a solution
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Conclusions
PRACTICE
1. The downward slope towards collapse can be of any length
2. A turnaround can save much of the unsecured debt
3. Predicting bankruptcies need a combination of quantitative and qualitative tools, and ideally supported with external viewpoints not encumbered by emotion or politics…
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Thank you! For questions regarding this presentation, please contact:
Andras Bognar Senior Manager – Airlines
+44-788-44-90-781 [email protected]