How to Develop Resilient Supply Chains For The African Consumer Market

69
Danie Schoeman How to Develop Resilient Supply Chains For The African Consumer Market @scguydan

Transcript of How to Develop Resilient Supply Chains For The African Consumer Market

Page 1: How to Develop Resilient Supply Chains For The African Consumer Market

Danie Schoeman

How to Develop Resilient Supply Chains

For The African Consumer Market

@scguydan

Page 2: How to Develop Resilient Supply Chains For The African Consumer Market

Same Village,

Different World

1

Page 3: How to Develop Resilient Supply Chains For The African Consumer Market

Changing Times

2

“The future ain't what it used to be”- Yogi Berra, former US Major League Baseball manager

Page 4: How to Develop Resilient Supply Chains For The African Consumer Market

Global Supply Chain Pioneer

“Lieutenant Dan got me invested in some kind of fruit company. So then I got a call from him, saying we don't have to worry about money no more. And I said, that's good! One less thing.”

“That day, for no particular reason, I decided to go for a little run.”

3

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Globalisation – The Disconnection of Global

Production and Distribution

R&D Distribution Marketing/Retail

Manufacturing Base

Core Base

4

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The Global Supply Chain

Article at http://fancydresscostumes.co.uk/blog/forrest-gumps-investment-apple/Based on a nominal initial amount of 100,000 shares - “After accounting for two morestock splits in 2000 and 2005, Forrest and Lieutenant Dan’s holding now stands at11,811,680 shares.”

What Forrest Gump’s investment in apple could be worth today?

Today that stock is worth US$ 7,476,793,440.00

Adapted from G. Linden, K.L. Kraemer, and J. Dedrick (2009), “Who Captures Value in a Global Innovation Network? The Case of Apple’s iPod”,Communications of the ACM, March 2009, Vol. 52, No. 3, pp. 140-144.,

5

$80

$75

$85

$19

$27

$7 $5 $1

$40

Apple (Margin)

Distribution and Retail

Major Components

Other Inputs

Japan (Margin)

USA (Margin)

Taiwan (Margin)

Korea (Margin)

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Masters of Complexity

6

Deloitte

Source: Deloitte Research, GMS, Mastering complexity in global manufacturing, 2003.

Q1

Q3

37%

ComplexityMasters

Q2

49%

7%

19% moreprofitable

7%

17% moreprofitable

100%= base

73% moreprofitableH

igh

High

Low

Low

Glo

bal

Val

ue

Ch

ain

Co

mp

lexi

ty

Value Chain Capabilities

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An Interdependent Global Economy

• In 2010 the World Bank published the book titled: “Global Value Chains in a Postcrisis World: A Development Perspective”

• It stated that “the world is in the midst of a sporadic and painful recovery from the most severe economic crisis since the 1930s Great Depression. The unprecedented scale of the crisis and the speed of its transmission have revealed the interdependence of the global economy and the increasing reliance by businesses on global value chains (GVCs). These chains represent the process of ever-finer specialization and geographic fragmentation of production, with the more labour-intensive portions transferred to developing countries. As the recovery unfolds, it is time to take stock of the aftereffects and to draw lessons for the future. Have we experienced the first global crisis of the 21st century or a more structural crisis of globalization?”

• A significant realization

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The Need To Measure Differently

• In 2012 the World Economic Forum published its annual The Global Enabling Trade Report 2012 under the theme “Reducing Supply Chain Barriers” where it explores how the globalization of value chains impacts measurement of trade and overall trade policies, as well as addresses logistics investments, customs administration and state of the merchant fleet.

• It stated that “To reflect the changing global economic structure, our system of measuring economic activity and our policy orientation, which are still sovereign based, must be expanded and adjusted. This requirement does not contradict the need to build a domestic industrial base, but rather complements it. The world has become highly integrated by information technology, global supply chains, and trade and capital flow linkages—in large part because of the ownership-based operating model. To stick strictly to a model tailored to national boundaries is neither progressive nor realistic.”

• Another significant realization

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Global Supply Chains Drive Trade

World Bank WDI, IAPH, Containerisation International

0,1

1

10

100

1000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Container Throughput (TEU, millions) Exports (current US$, trillions)

GDP (current US$, trillions) Population (billions)

9

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Africa - The Backdrop

10

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Hopeless Case Or Hopeless Forecast?

11

May 2000

“Floods in Mozambique; threats

of famine in Ethiopia (again);

mass murder in Uganda; the

implosion of Sierra Leone; and

a string of wars across the

continent. The new millennium

has brought more disaster

than hope to Africa. Worse,

the few candles of hope are

flickering weakly.”

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Hopeless Case Or Hopeless Forecast?

12

December 2011

“Since The Economist

regrettably labelled Africa ‘the

hopeless continent’ a decade

ago, a profound change has

taken hold.”

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Africa’s Quickened Economic Pulse

13

522

784

977

1260

16221725

18381930 1974 2015

20962181

1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

African annual real GDP (In 2005 US$ billion)

4.2

2.6

5.2

2.2

6.3

6.55.0

2.32.1 4.0

4.1

CAGR,%

1,8%

2,0%

2,6%

2,7%

4,7%

5,3%

6,7%

DevelopedMarkets

Middle East

World

Latin America& Caribbean

Africa

East Asia &Pacific

South Asia

Real GDP CAGR% 2000-12

World Bank WDI, DS&C Analysis

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The Lions Of Africa Starts To Roar

14

2001-2010 2011-2015

Angola 11.1 China 9.5

China 10.5 India 8.2

Myanmar 10.3 Ethiopia 8.1

Nigeria 8.9 Mozambique 7.7

Ethiopia 8.4 Tanzania 7.2

Kazakhstan 8.2 Vietnam 7.2

Chad 7.9 Congo 7.0

Mozambique 7.9 Ghana 7.0

Cambodia 7.7 Zambia 6.9

Rwanda 7.6 Nigeria 6.8

World’s Ten Fastest Growing Economies

Economist Intelligence Unit (2011)

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The Lions Of Africa Continues To Roar

15

2001-2010 Actual 2011-2012 Actual 2014 Forecast

Azerbaijan 15.5% Sierra Leone 15.2% Mongolia 15.3%

Qatar 13.4% Afghanistan 14.4% Sierra Leone 11.2%

Macao SAR, China 12.8% Mongolia 12.3% Turkmenistan 9.2%

Angola 12.1% Turkmenistan 11.1% Bhutan 8.8%

Armenia 10.8% Niger 10.8% Libya 8.8%

China 10.7% Panama 10.7% Iraq 8.5%

Chad 10.6% Liberia 10.2% Lao PDR 8.5%

Equatorial Guinea 10.4% Burkina Faso 10.0% Timor-Leste 8.5%

Nigeria 9.4% Macao SAR, China 9.9% Eritrea 8.0%

Bhutan 8.7% Cote d'Ivoire 9.5% Zambia 7.9%

World’s Ten Fastest Growing Economies

Economist Intelligence Unit (2013)World Bank WDI, DS&C Analysis

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More Than A Resource Boom

6

2

2

5

5

6

6

9

10

12

13

24

Other services

Utilities

Tourism

Real estate, business services

Construction

Public administration

Financial intermediation

Manufacturing

Transport, telecommunications

Agriculture

Wholesale and retail

Resources

6.8

5.5

7.8

4.6

8.0

3.9

7.5

5.9

8.7

7.3

6.9

CAGR,%

7.1

16

McKinsey Global Institute

“When we were investigating the growth in Africa, one of the myths that was always there was that the growth in Africa is only coming from resources… But actually when you go and

look into the numbers, a big part of this growth is actually driven by the rise of the consumer,” - Reinaldo Fiorini of McKinsey & Company

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Africa Comes To Town

17

World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, UNPD

43 94 54 63 5050Cities with>1 millionpeople

31%40%

51%

73%79% 82%

69%60%

49%

27%21% 18%

India Africa China Europe Latin America North America

Share of rural vs urban population by region, 2011, %, million

1241 1046 1348 739 597 348100% =

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Rise Of The African Consumer

18

3424

18

29

32

29

1821

23

1114

17

6 8 12

2000 2008 2020F

Globals(<20 000)

Consuming middle class(10 000-20 000)

Emerging consumers(5 000-10 000)

Basic consumer needs(2 000-5 000)

Destitute(< 2 000)

Share of households in each income bracket (%, millions of households)

100% = 163 196 244

Household income bracket$ PPP 2005

DiscretionaryIncome

Basic Needs

Households withIncome >$5 000millions

59 85 128

McKinsey’s Africa Consumer Insight Centre

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Africa Rising

Africa Today

$2.182 trillionAfrica’s collective GDP in 2013

$1.07 trillionAfrica’s consumer spending in 2011

316 millionthe number of new mobile phone subscribers signed up in Africa since 2002

60%Africa’s share of the world’s total amount of uncultivated, arable land

52the number of African cities with more than 1 million people each

20the number of African companies with revenues of at least $3billion

Africa Tomorrow

$2.6 trillionAfrica’s collective GDP in 2020

$1.4 trillionAfrica’s consumer spending in 2020

1.1 billionthe number of Africans of working age in 2040

128 millionthe number of African households with discretionary income in 2020

50%the portion of Africans living in cities by 2030

AfdB, World Bank WDI, DS&C Analysis, McKinsey Global Institute

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The Size Of The Prize

20

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21

A Continent Goes

Shopping

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Trends That Will Shape The African

Consumer Market

22

Emerging middle class…

…50% of households have discretionary

income

Digital consumer…• …70% mobile

penetration• …predominant

mobile internet

Value orientation…• …saving money

is primary concern

• …private label growing

World’s youngest population…

…40% under 14 resulting in world’s

largest working population

World’s fastest growing

population……600 million more

people by 2030

Fragmented but rapidly changing trade structure…

…90% informal but rapid growth of modern trade

War for Talent……400 companies

with revenue over $200 million

Healthy urbanization…

• …68 cities over 1 million

• …more urbanized than

India

2

World’s food factory…

…60% of available cropland and infrastructure

lagging

6

8

5

1

7

43

9McKinsey Global Institute

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Worlds Fastest Growing Population

23

Africa will have the world’s fastest growing population, adding ~600 million

people over the next 20 years.

8425

53767 93 1

271 149

126

81 -4 12057 11

6916

Population growth (millions)

2.5 1.40.3

0

1.0

1.01.5 0

0.9 0.8 1.3

1.2

CAGR, %

World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, UNPD

1

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Worlds Youngest Population

24

Africa will have the world’s youngest population and its working age population

will exceed China and India by 2035.

World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, UNPD

0 20 40

Africa

India

Latin America

North America

China

Europe

Population ages 0-14 (% of total)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Population ages 15-64 (millions)

Africa

China

Japan

South-East Asia

India

Europe

Latin America

North America

2

Page 26: How to Develop Resilient Supply Chains For The African Consumer Market

Emerging Middle Class

25

3424

18

29

32

29

1821

23

1114

17

6 8 12

2000 2008 2020F

Globals(<20 000)

Consuming middle class(10 000-20 000)

Emerging consumers(5 000-10 000)

Basic consumer needs(2 000-5 000)

Destitute(< 2 000)

Share of households in each income bracket (%, millions of households)

100% = 163 196 244

Household income bracket$ PPP 2005

DiscretionaryIncome

Basic Needs

Households withIncome >$5 000millions

59 85 128

McKinsey’s Africa Consumer Insight Centre

3

Page 27: How to Develop Resilient Supply Chains For The African Consumer Market

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Urban Population (% of total)

Healthy Urbanization: Growth

26

In the last 10 years, Africa has added 13 cities with a population of over

1 million people…this will increase by 18 by 2020 for a total of 68 cities.

31%

40%

51%

73%

79%

82%

India

Africa

China

Europe

Latin America

North America

Urban Population (% of total)

Cities with>1 millionpeople

24 50 68 8437

World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, UNPD

43

94

54

63

50

50

Cities with>1 millionpeople

130

4

Page 28: How to Develop Resilient Supply Chains For The African Consumer Market

46%

71%

54%

29%

Accra

Ghana

Household IncomeDistribution

%, 2008

1264

732

Accra

Ghana

GDP / CapitaUS$ per year, 2008

1418

945

Nairobi

Kenya

GDP / CapitaUS$ per year, 2008

Healthy Urbanization: Higher Income

27

Urban consumers are 4.3 times more productive and as a result

have significantly higher incomes.

1422

6145

Rural Urban

Annual output per workerUS$, 2008

50%

31%

62%

69%

38%

Nairobi

Kenya

Household IncomeDistribution

%, 2008

73%

4

4.3x

McKinsey Global Institute

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Digital Consumer: Mobile Penetration

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%G

abo

n

Tun

isia

Sou

th A

fric

a

Mo

rocc

o

Alg

eria

Cap

e V

erd

e

Mau

riti

us

Co

ngo

Be

nin

Sen

egal

Zim

bab

we

Sud

an

Ken

ya

Gu

inea

Bis

sau

Zam

bia

Cam

ero

on

Tan

zan

ia

Togo

Leso

tho

Uga

nd

a

Ch

ad

CA

R

Mo

zam

biq

ue

Nig

er

Bu

run

di

DR

C

Eth

iop

ia

Mo

bile

Pen

etra

tio

n

Africa Average

28

5

GSMA Intelligence (2012)

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Digital Consumer – Mobile Dominates

0 2000 4000 6000

Africa

China

Japan

South-East Asia

India

Europe

Latin America

North America

Subscriptions/100 population

Active mobile broadband Internet

Fixed broadband Internet

Mobile phone

0 200 400 600 800 1000

Eastern Africa

Middle Africa

Northern Africa

Southern Africa

Western Africa

Subscriptions/100 population

Active mobile broadband Internet

Fixed broadband Internet

Mobile phone

29

5

WEF ETI (2014)

Page 31: How to Develop Resilient Supply Chains For The African Consumer Market

Value Orientation

30

33

56

25

45 43

58

Sub-SaharanAfrica

average

North Africaaverage

Sub-SaharanAfrica

average

North Africaaverage

Sub-SaharanAfrica

average

North Africaaverage

Willingness to pay a premium for brands% who agree with statement: "I only shop for well-known brands, even if it means paying more"

Grocery Clothing Mobile Handset

“It actually turns out, especially in West Africa, people are very loyal in apparel. Women are unbelievably loyal to local brands. But generally Africans are very loyal,”

- Safroadu Yeboah-Amankwah, McKinsey & Company

McKinsey’s Africa Consumer Insight Centre

6

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Value Orientation

59 57

38 40

3 2

Sub-SaharanAfrica

average

North Africaaverage

Sub-SaharanAfrica

average

North Africaaverage

Sub-SaharanAfrica

average

North Africaaverage

% who agree with statement: "When grocery shopping, I am ..."

Brand loyal Deal driven Cannot say

31

McKinsey’s Africa Consumer Insight Centre

6

“For the younger guys in the range between 16 and 24, more than half of the people [surveyed] think that the brand is important. So you see that this consumer is emerging, and

this consumer is not the same consumer that we are used to. It’s a new consumer. So you have to understand how they think and how they behave to be effective.”

- Reinaldo Fiorini, McKinsey & Company

Page 33: How to Develop Resilient Supply Chains For The African Consumer Market

Value Orientation

32

African shoppers are amongst the most brand conscious in the world but are increasingly open to private label.

4

11

24

9

14

15

14

28

14

14

4

14

3

21

18

18

22

30

45

24

Morocco

Ethiopia

Angola

Kenya

Egypt

Ghana

South Africa

Senegal

Nigeria

Africa

Likelihood of purchasing (grocery) store brands if available% who agree

Every time I can

Frequently

44

72

Sub-SaharanAfrica average

North Africaaverage

Quality perceptions% who agree with statement: "Well-known(food) brands are always better quality"

6

McKinsey’s Africa Consumer Insight Centre

Page 34: How to Develop Resilient Supply Chains For The African Consumer Market

The War For Talent

33

MNCs have a rising interest in Africa’s talent pool, but the local talent pool is still not producing the required needs.

7

-8

-7

-5

-2

1

-22

-12

-8

13

Zambia

Malawi

Namibia

Tanzania

Kenya

Burkina Faso

Madagascar

Cameroon

Senegal

% change in average achievement scores

Grade 5 mathPASEC assessment1995-2007

Grade 6 readingSACMEQ assessment1998-200315 30 45

75

130165

2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 2008

Many MNCs are committed to building a significant presence in Africa, i.e. 400 companies earning > $200 m in revenue

As a result, companies seeking global talent increasing dramatically.

McKinsey Global Institute

Page 35: How to Develop Resilient Supply Chains For The African Consumer Market

The World’s Food Factory

2003 2030

Agricultural production demandBillion tons

Food Processing Other

34

Demand for agricultural production could double by 2030, which could

pressure Africa as it has 60% of globally available cropland.

590

300

80

2009

Additional available croplandMillion hectares

Others

Latin America

Sub SaharanAfrica

21638454953536672

753139

155

OthersTanzania

CARMozambique

ZambiaAngola

DRCSudan

OthersVenezuelaArgentina

Brazil

McKinsey Global Institute

2.1x

14.8

7.0

8

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Informal Trade Remains Dominant

35 McKinsey Global Institute

9

64%

87% 84% 84% 88% 90% 91%

36%

13% 16% 16% 12% 10% 9%

South Africa Nigeria Angola Sudan Tanzania Uganda Mozambique

% 2

00

8

Informal Formal

Page 37: How to Develop Resilient Supply Chains For The African Consumer Market

A Retail Rush – Front Runners

36

9

The trade structure is rapidly changing to modern retail,

but is still fairly fragmented.

Company Annual Reports (2013)

Page 38: How to Develop Resilient Supply Chains For The African Consumer Market

A Retail Rush – “New” Entrants

37

• Currently present in 3 African countries operating 53 stores

• Planned additional presence in 8 African countries through CFAO joint venture

9

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Finding And Connecting

To This Consumer

38

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New Compelling Markets

39

2012 2020Household final consumption, current US$

$25-50bn >$100bn$50-100bn

World Bank, DS&C Analysis, McKinsey Global Institute

Page 41: How to Develop Resilient Supply Chains For The African Consumer Market

Megacities – Natural Entry Points

40World Bank, DS&C Analysis

Growing megacities present natural entry points in these markets.

Page 42: How to Develop Resilient Supply Chains For The African Consumer Market

Start with thebasics

Opt out

Move quickly

Differentiate

Right Approaches To African Retail

Rwanda

Nigeria

Namibia

Tanzania

Gabon

Ghana

South Africa

Botswana

Mozambique

Ethiopia

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

Mar

ket

Satu

rati

on

(1

00

= u

nsa

tura

ted

, 0 =

fu

lly

satu

rate

d)

Market Size

41 AT Kearney ARDI (2014)

Page 43: How to Develop Resilient Supply Chains For The African Consumer Market

Right Approaches To The African Consumer

42 Nielsen Emerging Market Insights (2012)

Progressive Affluents

Trendy Aspirants

Struggling Traditionals

Ballanced Seniors

Wannabe BachelorsEvolving Juniors

Female Conservatives

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Mo

nth

ly C

PG

Cat

ego

ry S

pen

d (

US$

)

Mean Monthly Household Income (US$)

7%

21%

17%10%

10%

11%24%

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Page 44: How to Develop Resilient Supply Chains For The African Consumer Market

Segmenting The African Consumer

43

11

14

12

13

34

PriceImportance

19

14

31

15

9

BrandImportance

54

11

9

20

8

Fresh/quality importance

11

57

12

18

13

ExperimentalIndex

Low-price shoppers• Most price conscious• Will make sacrifices for

lower prices

Local, quality shoppers• Believe price indicates

quality• Shop locally

Brand-loyal shoppers• Prefer brands• Will pay more for them

Experimental shoppers• Like to try new things• Enjoy shopping

Fresh lovers• Prioritize freshness

over others

Grocery categorysegments

McKinsey’s Africa Consumer Insight Centre

Page 45: How to Develop Resilient Supply Chains For The African Consumer Market

How To Reach This Consumer

44

Radio, mobile and TV have consistently high penetration, with mobile devices

presenting an opportunity to connect with consumers through.

85

63 64

SouthAfrica

Emergingmarkets

Developedcountries

Are not annoyed byadvertising on mobile,

%

020406080

100

Africa Asia Europe LatinAmerica

NorthAmerica

OceaniaPerc

enta

ge o

f h

ou

seh

old

s w

ith

0

50

100

NorthernAfrica

EasternAfrica

MiddleAfrica

SouthernAfrica

WesternAfrica

Perc

enta

ge o

f h

ou

seh

old

s w

ith

Radio TV Fixed line telephone

Mobile-cellular telephone Computer Internet access

ITU World Telecommunication (2012), McKinsey’s Africa Consumer Insight Centre

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45

Facing Challenges

Page 47: How to Develop Resilient Supply Chains For The African Consumer Market

An Intra-Continental Trade Spaghetti Bowl

46

GhanaNigeria

Cape VerdeThe Gambia

BeninTogo

Côte d’Ivoire

Niger

Burkina Faso

Guinea-Bissau MaliSenegal

Liberia

Sierra Leone

Guinea

Chad

ECOWAS

São Tomé& Príncipe

CameroonCentralAfricanRep.

Gabon

Equatorial Guinea

Rep. of Congo

Egypt

BurundiRwanda

DR CongoAngola

Tanzania

South AfricaBotswana

Lesotho

Namibia

Mozambique

Swaziland

Malawi

Zambia

Zimbabwe

LibyaAlgeria

Morocco

Mauritania

Tunisia

SahrawiArab DR

Djibouti

Ethiopia

EritreaSudan

Kenya

Uganda

Mauritius

Seychelles

Comoros

Madagascar

South Sudan

Somaliland

AFRICAN UNION

CEN-SAD

WAMZ

SADC

ECCAS

CEMAC

COMESA

IGAD

AMU

SACU

EAC

LGAUEMOA

MRU

CEPGL

AfDB, African Union, DS&C Analysis

Page 48: How to Develop Resilient Supply Chains For The African Consumer Market

Trading Is Difficult

47

Enabling Trade Index

WEF ETI (2014)

Page 49: How to Develop Resilient Supply Chains For The African Consumer Market

Expensive and Slow

WEF ETI (2014)

0 1000 2000 3000 4000

Africa

Europe

Latin America

North America

China

India

World

0 1000 2000 3000 4000

Eastern Africa

Middle Africa

Northern Africa

Southern Africa

Western Africa

Export Import

Cost (US$ per container)

0 10 20 30 40 50

Africa

Europe

Latin America

North America

China

India

World

No. of days

0 10 20 30 40 50

Eastern Africa

Middle Africa

Northern Africa

Southern Africa

Western Africa

Export Import

45

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Our Candidate Economies

WEF ETI (2014)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Co

st (

US$

pe

r co

nta

iner

)

Import Export World Ave Import World Ave Export

46

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Getting To The Continent

50

Liner Shipping Connectivity

UNCTAD (2013)

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Getting Onto The Continent

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Africa China India Europe LatinAmerica

NorthAmerica

Quality of port infrastructure

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

EasternAfrica

MiddleAfrica

NorthernAfrica

SouthernAfrica

WesternAfrica

Efficiency of transport mode change

Ranking (1 = extremely underdeveloped, 7 = well-developed and efficient by international standards, 1 = not efficient at all, 7 = extremely efficient)

WEF ETI (2014)

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Running Out Of Capacity

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0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

Rat

io o

f cu

rre

nt

de

man

d t

o r

ep

ort

ed

cap

acit

y

Container traffic

AICD Ports Database (2008)

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Expensive and Slow…Again

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Region Container handling (ship-to-gate) US$General cargo (over-the-quay per

metric ton) US$

East Africa 135-275 6-15

Southern Africa 110-243 11-15

West Africa 100-320 8-15

North Africa 110-260 8-15

Rest of world 80-154 7-9

Gateway Container Handling and General Cargo Costs

Ocean Shipping Consultants (2008)

Region Truck cycle times (hours) Dwell times (days)

Minimum Average Maximum Minimum Average Maximum

East Africa 3.5 5.5 24 5 12 28

Southern Africa 2 4 12 4 6 8

West Africa 6 10 24 11 15 30

North Africa 2.5 4 6 5 8 20

Typical Truck Cycle and Dwell Times

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Getting To Consumer

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Logistics Performance Index

World Bank (2014)

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Roads – Connecting The Dots

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AfdB

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Roads - The Burden Of Maintenance

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Corridor Length (km)Roads in good condition (%)

Trade density (US$

million/km)

Implicit speed (km/hour)

Freight tariff (US$/tonne-

km)

Western 2050 72 8.2 6 0.08

Central 3280 49 4.2 6.1 0.13

Eastern 2845 82 5.7 8.1 0.07

Southern 5000 100 27.9 11.6 0.05

Teravaninthom and Rablland (2008)

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Then There’s African Road Rage!

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58

Railways - Not Pulling Their Weight

AfdB

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Electricity – Still The Dark Continent?

88

28

40

52

43

Northern Africa

Eastern Africa

Middle Africa

Southern Africa

Western Africa

Access to electricity (% of population)

International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook

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Dealing with the challenges

Bill Egbe, president of The Coca-Cola Company’s South African unit says that although most companies are starting to realise that it is possible to generate good returns on investment in Africa, people sometimes still get blinded by the challenges.

“I always say that those challenges are part of our reality. We don’t moan about them, we don’t complain about them. We take [the challenges] into account as we design our business models. Africans survive on this continent despite those challenges. There are fine ways to cope with those challenges. Businesses need to have a mindset that says: ‘We’ll build a business model that takes into account these challenges and build a system [to overcome the challenges]‘,” he says.

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http://www.howwemadeitinafrica.com/doing-business-in-africa-the-coca-cola-way

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How Others

Made It

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Unilever

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Coca Cola

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Photo credit Simon Berry; Tielman Niewoudt

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Others

• Nestlé – Ice cream vendors on similar basis as the

Unilever Shakti and Coca Cola MDC models

• Tiger Brands – Partnering to have local understanding

– Joint venture in Ethiopia

– Acquisition in Nigeria

• Pick n Pay – Joint venture in Zimbabwe

• Shoprite – Making it work with an African mindset

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Shoprite

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In 2012 A Man Fell From Space*

It was a fall that caught the

imagination of all humanity. But it

was a thousand years of human

imagination that caught him.

*Ok, the actual border of “space” is much higher than the altitude Felix’s capsule attained, the lowest point being the Kármán line, recognized by aeronautic agencies at 100 km (62 miles) up. Still, Felix was above 99% of Earth’s atmosphere, where air pressure is virtually non-existent and the sky above is black. I don’t know about you, but that’s good enough for me!

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Disclaimer

This document has been prepared by Danie Schoeman andCompany to provide background information on Africa and (or)markets mentioned herein, the forecasts, opinions and expectationsare entirely those of Danie Schoeman and Company. Thispresentation was prepared with the utmost due care andconsideration for accuracy and factual information; the forecasts,opinions and expectations are deemed to be fair and reasonable.However there can be no assurance that future results or events willbe consistent with any such forecasts, opinions and expectations.Therefore the authors will not incur any liability for any loss arisingfrom any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arisingin connection herewith. Neither will the sources of information orany other related parties be held responsible for any form of actionthat is taken as a result of the proliferation of this document.

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