The new green revolution: how small-scale farmers can change the world

15/10/2010, Chris Claes

How will we feed the world?

a few questions

How will we manage the commons?

How will we allocate the world’s biomass to meet

our food, feed, fuel, and fiber needs?

How do we keep market forces from squeezing out small producers?

How do we make public food service

a driver of sustainability and health?

Is there a place for family farms?

Family Farming

• Versus agro-industrial farming• Family has control over resources• Family takes decisions in relation to the management of

the farm• Most of the labour is provided by the family

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West-Africa (source IIED)

Family farming

• A way out of poverty

• Feeding the world

• Life insurance for future generations

• Food, fiber, fuel, feed, ….

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Family farming; a way out of poverty

• Agriculture is an important source of livelihoods in developing countries, providing ways of life for billions of people, many of them poor. Of the world’s 6.5 billion inhabitants, 5.5 billion live in developing countries, 3 billion in the rural areas of these countries. Of rural inhabitants, an estimated 2.5 billion are involved in agriculture, 1.3 billion are smallholders, while others include farm labourers, migrant workers, herders, fishers, artisans and indigenous peoples who depend on agriculture and natural resources for their livelihoods. More than half are women. The developing world will remain predominantly rural until around 2020 and millions of poor people in those countries will continue to rely on agriculture for their livelihoods for the foreseeable future…

World Bank, 2007

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The contribution of agriculture to livelihoods is evident from the fact that 70 percent of the world’s poor people, including the poorest of the poor, and 75 percent of the world’s malnourished live in rural areas, where most of them are involved in agriculture.

So what’s wrong?

• Food crisis• Environmental crisis• Climate crisis• Financial crisis

• All of them are interlinked…

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CRISIS

• Ecological: deforestation, genetic resources disappear, toxic wastes, climate change

• Hunger and Poverty:

Food Production: 175 % increase between 1975 and 2005

16 % more food per person

15 % world population undernourished• Financial crisis• interlinked

Solution for one; more problems for others?

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Increase in Food Production

• More than 175 % increase since 1975, bigger increase than population increase, 16 % more food per person

• More than 1.000.000.000 people with less than 1 $ a day (2,5 billion less than 2 $)

• 78 % of countries with under nourishment problems of children are net food exporters!

• Food is NO production problem: it’s a problem of ‘having access to food (income, land, knowledge…)

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States and agricultural support

• Since the eighties substantial decrease in agricultural budgets, especially in developing countries

• Decrease in access to agricultural inputs, services, markets…• In countries where more than 35 % of population is undernourished 14

$ per person economically active in agriculture = 50 times less than 880 $ in industrial countries

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Globalisation and shift in power

Before• small-scale family farms, • Little risk for farmers• Governments created semi-public enterprises that ensured minimum

prices, administered inputs and outputs, extended technologies, extension services, capacity building…

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Globalisation and shifting power

• Situation has changed dramatically• Agro-corporation or Food-corporation = multinational, active in

(bio)technology, chemical inputs en production, processing, banking activities (e.g. carrefour)…

• Alliances with others= clusters or oligopoly• Small number of buyers for big amount of sellers

NOWADAYS

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Consumers: 160,000,000clients: 89,000,000

stores: 170,000

supermarket formats: 600

buyers: 110

processors: 8,600Semi-processors: 80,000

suppliers: 160,000

Farmers/producers: 3,200,000

The Bottleneck in EuropeGrievink (2003): OECD Conference to Explore Changes in the Food Economy, The Hague, 6-7 February 2003

Het betreft hier 85 % van de voedselverkoop in Nederland, België, Frankrijk, Duitsland, Groot-Brittanië en Oostenrijk!

Source: Booz-Allen Hamilton, 2003

Argentina

Brazil

Mexico

Chile

Colombia

Costa Rica

UK

Portugal

Spain

Germany

FinlandDenmark

Switzerland

Belgium

Italy

Sweden

Austria

Greece

Norway

USA

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0

GDP/Capita in USD (2001)

Lar

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Su

per

mar

ket

pen

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tio

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on

sum

er G

oo

ds

Mar

ket

GDP and supermarket concentration

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Concentration of Food SalesLand CR3 CR4 TopEntreprisesAustria 57.4 66.2 Rewe, SPAR (Austria), Aldi, MetroBelgium 61.8 70.4 Carrefour, Colruyt , Delhaize Group, Metro, Aldi

Czech rep 24.8 29.7 Ahold, Schwartz, Metro, Rewe, Tesco Denmark 66.4 – 78 74.1 FDB, Dansk Supermarkt, Dagrofa, SuperBestFinland 83.6 87.6 Kesko, SOKFrance 48.1 60.0 Carrefour, Leclerc, ITM, Casino, AuchanGermany 44.3 56.1 - 66.7 Metro, Rewe, Edeka/AVA, Aldi

Hungary 48.2 51 CBA, Tesco, Co-op Hungary, Metro,

Ireland 54.4 70.3 Musgrave, Tesco, Dunnes Stores, Stonehouse,Italy 29.1 36.0 Coop Italia, Auchan, Carrefour, Conad

Netherlands 51.5 - 62.6 56.9 - 82.6 Ahold, Casino

Norway 62.6 – 83 76.3 - 99.5 Norgesgruppen, Coop Norden, Ahold, Reitan

Poland 14.9 17.7 Metro, Jerónimo Martins, Tesco, CarrefourPortugal 48.3 56.8 ModeloContinente, Jerónimo Martins, ITMRomania 17.5 18.7 - 27.0 Metro, Rewe, Carrefour, Delhaize

Slovakia 25.3 31.4 Tesco, Metro, Rewe, SchwartzSpain 53.8 62.5 El Corte Inglés, Carrefour, Marcadona, Sweden 80.9 – 95 83.8 Ahold, Axel Johnson, CoopNordenUK 42.3 – 60.4 49.3 – 70.6 Tesco, Asda-Wal-Mart, Sainsbury’s,

Morrisons

Power in the chain

Consumer price remains equal

Producer price decreases

Margin processor remains equal

Supermarket marging doubles

Globalisation and market restructuring

• Supermarket power grows:

85 % of food sales in West Europe

Also 60 % in Latin America (20 years!)

30 % in Africa

Increase of 40 % per year in China

Backward auctions

Delhaize vs Unilever

International trade

• Trade Barriers reduced in industrial countries since 1995• Exception: agriculture and labour intensive products (comparative

advantage for developing countries• OECD countries: 226 billion Euro support to agriculture; low

international commodity prices (milk, cotton, sugar, meat)• Import barriers (taxes): protect 28 % of agricultural production of

OECD countries• Less market opportunities for developing countries (added value!)• Commodity suppliers…

New barriers: norms and standards: see supermarketcontentration

Technology and science

• Industrial revolution:Intensification of land use

Leguminosae

Mechanisation

Fertilizers on basis of petroleum

• Green revolutionWonder seeds (HYV), hybrids, fertilizer and pesticides: unstable plants

Asia & LatinAmerica: increase in productivity high, Africa not

Technology and science

• Green revolution did NOT improve access to food for poor people; wonder seeds are not pro-poor, don’t take into account the complexity of farming systems

• India: poorest 30 % of population (285 million!) no increase in food and nutrient intake during the last 25 years

• Environmental problems: erosion, soil intoxification, increase in pests and diseases…

Technology and science

• Genetic revolution: extreme form of wonder seeds:

Industry driven (stock driven?)

No access for small farmers• Economic growth instead of increase in productivity/production:

commercial agriculture, export agriculture, foreign exchange, tradebalance…

• Simplification: 12 sorts of grain crops, 23 of vegetables, 35 fruits and nuts

• 70 sorts on 1.5 billion ha of crop land (100 years ago: 2000 sorts)• Rain forest: more than 100 sorts of trees on 1 ha• Scientists:

“no more research on traditional varieties”• US: > 60 % of varieties that can be bought (corn, soja) are gmo-seeds:

“in a few years there will be only gmo-seeds left”

Biodiversity and agriculture

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Can family farming feed the world?

‘You don’t have another choice than promote small-scale agriculture. Those small farmers don’t have another option, there are no jobs in industry or services for them. In the short term you can only strive for more means for small farmers, if not, you will create a massive emigraton from rural areas.‘

‘There’s more, small-scale agriculture has 3 big advantages. Firstly there’s more respect for the environment, just because there’s no money for pesticides and chemical fertilizers. That kind of agriculture is more in harmony with the environment and the climate. Secondly, it is a labour-intensive production, creating a lot of jobs. And thirdly, it can be a very productive agriculture, on the condition that those farmers have access to the know-how that is needed.

Prof. Oliver De Schutter, VN-rapporteur for the right to food

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Family farming: life insurance for future generations?

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Rising to 100% by 2050.

Source: WWF Living Planet Report 2006

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Sustainability, a playground of four elements

TransportTravels 80 %Housing agriculture/food (25%)

Transversally: climate, energy, natural ressources, poverty, …

70 % of Earth Surface is Farm Land

How do we turn things around?

• International Assessment of the Role of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development IAASTD

Food, feed, fuels, fiber…

IAASTD Development Goals:

• Reducing Hunger and Poverty • Improving Rural Livelihoods • Improving Nutrition and Human Health• Facilitating Environmentally, Socially, Equitable and

Economically Sustainable Development

• The IAASTD - A Unique Process• IGO Process with multi-stakeholder bureau comprising government

and civil society• Co-Sponsors: FAO, GEF, UNDP, UNEP, UNESCO, World Bank and

WHO • Multi-thematic focus • Multi-spatial: Global and five sub-Global assessments• Multi-temporal: historical-to-2050• 400 experts. • Peer review by governments and experts • Approved by over 60 governments

“Business as usual is no option”, says IAASTD

• Food security in different countries around the world will be best served by seeking a diversity of pathways

• Differences in tradition, history, context and resource endowments argue for rules that permit flexibility on national agricultural and trade policy and technology choices to strengthen the domestic small-scale farm sector and its contribution to national food security.

• Developing country governments will need to facilitate adequate remuneration and a minimum level of price stability for their small-scale sector to encourage increased domestic food production and increased investment in improved agricultural practices.

• Support for collective efforts of farmer organizations will be needed

“Business as usual is no option”, says IAASTD

• Improve tenure and access to resources, credit and insurance for small-scale producers to in- crease the sector’s contribution to national food security, as well as improved rural livelihoods and environmentally sustainable management of agricultural landscapes.

• Address market concentrations• Increase public investment in

agriculture

• Mobilize the capacities of supermarkets and other public and private actors along value- adding chains to offer consumers affordable, safe, healthy, fair trade foodstuffs that demonstrate commitment to poverty reduction, environmental and climate change goals.

• Promote the diversification of production systems through inclusion of locally important species/crops to develop a wide range of marketable natural products that can generate income for the rural and urban poor in the tropics and provide ecosystem services, such as soil and water conservation.

Complexity sciene: Cynefin model

• No straight forward planning

• Cause-effect?• Emerging

solutions• Multi-actor

Need for a new regime, a new paradigm to over come business as usual

• Agro-ecology RegimeSystem thinking

Complexityleads

Building resilience

Capacity to adapt & innovate

Technology and interaction driven

Paradigma shifts bring on fierce controversies and dissolution of old friendships…

• Biotechnology RegimeReductionist science

Cause – effect

Problemsolving (respond to problems)

Creates dependence on technology

Technology driven

“You cannot solve a problem using the same way of thinking as when the problem was created”

A. Einstein