How Predictive Markets work? - OneCaribbean.org · 2014-09-25 · ENFP Champion/Inspirer ESTJ...

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6 Test 15 ideas with a convenience sample of 500 answering for how they believe the market would react 6 Share the game with them, “imagine you owned shares in all these ideas..., which one would you sell + diagnostics & why and which one would you double your shares in and why?” 6 Aggregated buy/sell scores accurately sorts ‘wheat from chaff’, purchase projection indicates the ‘grade of wheat’ & the rich quali-quant diagnostics provide creative direction 6 Works across cultures with universal net preference scores “BrainJuicer’s Predictive Markets is an innovative research technique, which enables us to test multiple ideas really quickly, accurately and insightfully.” Lauren Lackey – Director of Global Technology – Wrigley How Predictive Markets work?

Transcript of How Predictive Markets work? - OneCaribbean.org · 2014-09-25 · ENFP Champion/Inspirer ESTJ...

Page 1: How Predictive Markets work? - OneCaribbean.org · 2014-09-25 · ENFP Champion/Inspirer ESTJ Supervisor/Guardian. Vodafone ENTP – Inventor / Visionary 60 Strengths: 6Adaptive 6Analytical

Test 15 ideas with a convenience sample of 500 answering for how they believe the market would react

Share the game with them, “imagine you owned shares in all these ideas..., which one would you sell + diagnostics & why and which one would you double your shares in and why?”

Aggregated buy/sell scores accurately sorts ‘wheat from chaff’, purchase projection indicates the ‘grade of wheat’ & the rich quali-quant diagnostics provide creative direction

Works across cultures with universal net preference scores

“BrainJuicer’s Predictive Markets is an innovative research technique, which enables us to test multiple ideas really

quickly, accurately and insightfully.”

Lauren Lackey – Director of Global Technology – Wrigley

How Predictive Markets work?

Page 2: How Predictive Markets work? - OneCaribbean.org · 2014-09-25 · ENFP Champion/Inspirer ESTJ Supervisor/Guardian. Vodafone ENTP – Inventor / Visionary 60 Strengths: 6Adaptive 6Analytical

Let the Market select

Monadic Test of 10 ideas

Less differentiation

Over-rewards the mediocre

Scores vary by culture

More expensive samples

Costly to test many ideas

5-6 week turn process

Predictive Markets

Sorts ‘wheat from the chaff’

Can also grade the ‘wheat’

More comparable cross-culture

Cheaper convenience sample

VFM way to test many ideas

2 week process

Page 3: How Predictive Markets work? - OneCaribbean.org · 2014-09-25 · ENFP Champion/Inspirer ESTJ Supervisor/Guardian. Vodafone ENTP – Inventor / Visionary 60 Strengths: 6Adaptive 6Analytical

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Click for Contents

% Doubling and Selling Shares in Each Idea – Male

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R

% o

f res

pond

ents

% doubling% selling

Sample: 500

-10-5-5-4-2-1-1-100001112519Net Preference:

Einstein represents ideas generated by the Creative Sixers

Bars represent a breakdown of the % buying and % selling each idea

Net preference score sorts wheat from chaff to reveal which concepts have real potential

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Page 4: How Predictive Markets work? - OneCaribbean.org · 2014-09-25 · ENFP Champion/Inspirer ESTJ Supervisor/Guardian. Vodafone ENTP – Inventor / Visionary 60 Strengths: 6Adaptive 6Analytical

CommScan

Using Faces to tell the engagement story

FaceTrace™

Page 5: How Predictive Markets work? - OneCaribbean.org · 2014-09-25 · ENFP Champion/Inspirer ESTJ Supervisor/Guardian. Vodafone ENTP – Inventor / Visionary 60 Strengths: 6Adaptive 6Analytical

Which of these faces best expresses how you feel about this advert?

To what degree did this advert make you feel [selected emotion]?

And what was it about this ad that made you feel this

way?

[Use MindReader to capture reasons for each emotion]

FaceTrace™

Page 6: How Predictive Markets work? - OneCaribbean.org · 2014-09-25 · ENFP Champion/Inspirer ESTJ Supervisor/Guardian. Vodafone ENTP – Inventor / Visionary 60 Strengths: 6Adaptive 6Analytical

7 3 5 7 3 1

7072

2515

61 2

19 19

25

63

61

27 25 22

1 1

2

1

10

5959

48

4

1

120 7

614

39

2 4 310

1 38

21 1

36

3

3

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Guinness Country Life Domestos Archers Charity Ad 1 Charity Ad 2 Action Aid NSPCC

Contempt

Disgust

Anger

Fear

Sadness

Neutral

Happy

Surprise

Measuring Emotional Engagement

% Feeling Each Emotion - Having seen the ad, please select the emotion below which most closely matches how you feel about it.

Intensity Score measured on a scale from 0 to +3

Emotional Engagement

Emotions drive everything we do. The more neutral, the less it can provoke any actionHow the emotion is evoked matters hugely: reflective or autonomic [MindReaders]

The more emotion the better but generally splits by purpose: commercial or social

1.371.18 0.711.310.771.581.911.92

Page 7: How Predictive Markets work? - OneCaribbean.org · 2014-09-25 · ENFP Champion/Inspirer ESTJ Supervisor/Guardian. Vodafone ENTP – Inventor / Visionary 60 Strengths: 6Adaptive 6Analytical

And the MindReader™ asks the reasons for the emotion

Reason for face - Disgust 'Domestos'

(181 x All)%The disgusting sludgy germ,

unpleasant15

The ad is repulsive and makes you not even want to watch to see who

it is for14

looked disgusting, dirty, smelly. slimy10

The ad is repulsive and makes you not want to watch to see who it is

for!8

icky, utterly revolting, but very very clever6

The ominous voice and the disgusting yucky bug5

Germs are disgusting anyway, but these along with the voice grossed

me out!4

looked slimy and evil and made me want to clean my loo4

didn't know what it was meant to represent initially & generally

disgusting3

Reason for face - Fear 'Domestos'

(18 x All)%Is the toilet bleach and disinfectant

I am using enough to kill these germs?

33

horrible ad...almost frightening and wouldn't want my kids to see it33

dark and gruesome character22

Reason for face - Happy 'Domestos'

(124 x All)%It made me laugh and want to keep

watching to see what it was for12

it portrays domestos as a strong bleach which will kill all germs

makes me happy11

It was funny and a bit menacing -good animation10

just fun7

It made me laugh7

it was very funny and a bit disgusting!7

it was different and i like animations compared to supposedly real people

6

the kind of ad you would call people into the room to see very

funny!6

It was funny! Also a bit suggestive!4

Reason for face - Surprise 'Domestos'

(27 x All)%I was surprised to see something creepy. I like the ads though was

like a film22

the shape of the 'germ'!15

it made me cringe15

so kind of horrid, for an ad, but amusing too15

it was quite entertaining for a bleach ad11

the 'millions of germs will die' statement7

I was surprised to see something creepy and nasty looking. I like the

ads though7

Page 8: How Predictive Markets work? - OneCaribbean.org · 2014-09-25 · ENFP Champion/Inspirer ESTJ Supervisor/Guardian. Vodafone ENTP – Inventor / Visionary 60 Strengths: 6Adaptive 6Analytical

Test 4 communication ideas with a targeted sample of 150;1 competitor + 3 alternatives, or 3 elements, TV/print/web

FaceTrace™, KPI’s, Main Message, Cognitive Dissonance, “how does it make you feel..., to what degree..., and why? Ad ratings, key message & more or less interested?

Emotional engagement +KPIs accurately measures emotions and predicts potential for achieving the desired action.

Works across cultures with universal FaceTrace™ scores

Costs *£12,000 and takes 2 weeks

“BrainJuicer’s CommScan provided an excellent measure of emotional engagement with rich diagnostics on all the

options and produced an insightful, action- focused debrief with clear direction for next steps.

Sheela Smale – CMI Director – Unilever Foods

CommScan

*Sliding scale with each additional country down to

£7,500 per study

Page 9: How Predictive Markets work? - OneCaribbean.org · 2014-09-25 · ENFP Champion/Inspirer ESTJ Supervisor/Guardian. Vodafone ENTP – Inventor / Visionary 60 Strengths: 6Adaptive 6Analytical

Understanding Brands

A psychometric understanding of how consumers see the brand’s personality

Brand Personality Type Indicator

Katherine Cook-BriggsIsobel Briggs-Myers

Page 10: How Predictive Markets work? - OneCaribbean.org · 2014-09-25 · ENFP Champion/Inspirer ESTJ Supervisor/Guardian. Vodafone ENTP – Inventor / Visionary 60 Strengths: 6Adaptive 6Analytical

57Myers Briggs – MBTi

Myers Briggs Type Indicator®” = World’s Foremost Personality Profiling tool Based on Jungian typologies and developed by Katherine Cook-Briggs & her daughter Isobel Briggs-Myers, MBTi is the world’s foremost personality profiling tool. Regarded as extremely reliable, with 75% reporting the same results & up to 95% of those with clear types.

What it can tell you…

UNDERSTANDING WHAT’S IMPORTANT & DRIVES THE BRANDSelf-knowledge of the brand & how to realize its full potential

RECOGNIZING THE BRAND’S STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSESEach personality has strengths & weaknesses to acknowledge, accept & use wisely.

What can you use it for…

BRAND PERSONALITY & DNARobust, deep, insightful knowledge of how consumers see the channel’s personality

COMMUNICATIONS AUDIT Assessment of how well the brand’s communications fit with the brand personality

BRAND PARTNERSHIPSProfiling of possible partner brands to predict how good a fit it would be & to help attract advertisers

Katherine Cook-Briggs

Carl Jung

Isobel Briggs-Myers

Page 11: How Predictive Markets work? - OneCaribbean.org · 2014-09-25 · ENFP Champion/Inspirer ESTJ Supervisor/Guardian. Vodafone ENTP – Inventor / Visionary 60 Strengths: 6Adaptive 6Analytical

58Myers Briggs Personality TypesSJ “GUARDIANS” = Security seeking types;ESTJ – SupervisorsISTJ – InspectorsESFJ – ProvidersISFJ – Protectors

SP “ARTISANS” = Sensation seeking types;ESTP – Promoter ISTP – CrafterESFP – PerformerISFP – Composer

NT “RATIONALS” = Knowledge seeking types;ENTJ – Field marshalINTJ – MastermindENTP – InventorINTP – Architect

NF “IDEALISTS” = Identity seeking types;ENFJ – TeacherINFJ – CounsellorENFP – ChampionINFP – Healer

Page 12: How Predictive Markets work? - OneCaribbean.org · 2014-09-25 · ENFP Champion/Inspirer ESTJ Supervisor/Guardian. Vodafone ENTP – Inventor / Visionary 60 Strengths: 6Adaptive 6Analytical

59Myers Briggs Personality Types: Mobile Network Operators

ENTP

Inventor / Visionary

ENFP

Champion / Inspirer

ENFP

Champion / Inspirer

ENFP

Champion / Inspirer

ENFP

Champion / Inspirer

ENFP

Champion/Inspirer

ESTJ

Supervisor/Guardian

Page 13: How Predictive Markets work? - OneCaribbean.org · 2014-09-25 · ENFP Champion/Inspirer ESTJ Supervisor/Guardian. Vodafone ENTP – Inventor / Visionary 60 Strengths: 6Adaptive 6Analytical

60Vodafone ENTP – Inventor / Visionary

Strengths:AdaptiveAnalyticalChallengingCleverEnterprisingIndependentOriginalOutspokenQuestioningResourcefulStrategic Theoretical

Steve Jobs

James Dyson

Weaknesses:Sets unrealistic priorities & timescalesAvoids here & now facts, dataUnappreciative of othersNeglects routineResists procedures/processesOver critical of inefficiency & incompetenceObsessivenessManipulative

Page 14: How Predictive Markets work? - OneCaribbean.org · 2014-09-25 · ENFP Champion/Inspirer ESTJ Supervisor/Guardian. Vodafone ENTP – Inventor / Visionary 60 Strengths: 6Adaptive 6Analytical

Connecting with Consumers

Providing live, 24/7 access to consumers’ livesJuicyCommunities

FamilyCam™

Page 15: How Predictive Markets work? - OneCaribbean.org · 2014-09-25 · ENFP Champion/Inspirer ESTJ Supervisor/Guardian. Vodafone ENTP – Inventor / Visionary 60 Strengths: 6Adaptive 6Analytical

Real life…, real homesNot people performing for the cameras…

FamilyCam™

Viewable 24/7 from your desktop

All film viewable, taggable & usable by all teams + agencies

New product testing interventions£12,000 per project

Page 16: How Predictive Markets work? - OneCaribbean.org · 2014-09-25 · ENFP Champion/Inspirer ESTJ Supervisor/Guardian. Vodafone ENTP – Inventor / Visionary 60 Strengths: 6Adaptive 6Analytical
Page 17: How Predictive Markets work? - OneCaribbean.org · 2014-09-25 · ENFP Champion/Inspirer ESTJ Supervisor/Guardian. Vodafone ENTP – Inventor / Visionary 60 Strengths: 6Adaptive 6Analytical

Other research tools/ suppliers

Page 18: How Predictive Markets work? - OneCaribbean.org · 2014-09-25 · ENFP Champion/Inspirer ESTJ Supervisor/Guardian. Vodafone ENTP – Inventor / Visionary 60 Strengths: 6Adaptive 6Analytical

6565September 2007

www.themindanvas.comwww.themindanvas.com

Specialists inSpecialists in‘‘GameGame--like Elicitation Methodslike Elicitation Methods’’

Page 19: How Predictive Markets work? - OneCaribbean.org · 2014-09-25 · ENFP Champion/Inspirer ESTJ Supervisor/Guardian. Vodafone ENTP – Inventor / Visionary 60 Strengths: 6Adaptive 6Analytical

6666September 2007

Feature prioritisation: DivideFeature prioritisation: Divide--thethe--dollardollar

The respondent allocates $$ to various features (here the

example is imagining an ideal mobile phone)

A great tool forconjoint research

Page 20: How Predictive Markets work? - OneCaribbean.org · 2014-09-25 · ENFP Champion/Inspirer ESTJ Supervisor/Guardian. Vodafone ENTP – Inventor / Visionary 60 Strengths: 6Adaptive 6Analytical

6767September 2007

DivideDivide--thethe--dollar results: dollar results: WeightMapWeightMap

Page 21: How Predictive Markets work? - OneCaribbean.org · 2014-09-25 · ENFP Champion/Inspirer ESTJ Supervisor/Guardian. Vodafone ENTP – Inventor / Visionary 60 Strengths: 6Adaptive 6Analytical

6868September 2007

OpenOpen--ended research: ended research: FreeListingFreeListing

Page 22: How Predictive Markets work? - OneCaribbean.org · 2014-09-25 · ENFP Champion/Inspirer ESTJ Supervisor/Guardian. Vodafone ENTP – Inventor / Visionary 60 Strengths: 6Adaptive 6Analytical

6969September 2007

OpenOpen--ended research results: ended research results: ListMapListMap(note the use of a (note the use of a ‘‘tag cloudtag cloud’’ display)display)

Page 23: How Predictive Markets work? - OneCaribbean.org · 2014-09-25 · ENFP Champion/Inspirer ESTJ Supervisor/Guardian. Vodafone ENTP – Inventor / Visionary 60 Strengths: 6Adaptive 6Analytical

March 2006

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Page 24: How Predictive Markets work? - OneCaribbean.org · 2014-09-25 · ENFP Champion/Inspirer ESTJ Supervisor/Guardian. Vodafone ENTP – Inventor / Visionary 60 Strengths: 6Adaptive 6Analytical

March 2006

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