How Much Can Asset Portfolios of Rural Households Benefit ......How Much Can Asset Portfolios of...
Transcript of How Much Can Asset Portfolios of Rural Households Benefit ......How Much Can Asset Portfolios of...
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How Much Can Asset Portfolios of Rural
Households Benefit from Formal Financial
Services?
Vishnu Prasad & Rachit Khaitan
IFMR Finance Foundation
December 20th, 2014
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How do you answer this question?
We construct stylised household asset portfolios that are stratified based on source of income (primary and secondary).
Using Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), we then compare the performance of the stylised portfolios over time with the performance of a hypothetical portfolio that offers these households access to a suite of financial instruments.
Finally, we quantify the financial gain to five stylised occupational categories from a limited suite of seven financial assets.
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Section 2
How much can these asset portfolios benefit from the introduction of financial assets
Section 1
What is the extant composition of asset portfolios of rural households?
Background
Motivation and review of existing literature
Agenda
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Motivation
Households face long but finite planning horizons
Household asset portfolios are typically composed of non-tradeable and illiquid assets such as housing and human capital
Households often face significant constraints on borrowing
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Review of Literature
There are discrepancies between ideal and observed financial behaviour of households
Investment in housing crowds out investment in financial assets
Household asset portfolios are diverse, simple, and predominantly invested in low-risk assets
Households actively manage their asset portfolios, even in the absence of access to formal financial markets
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Section 1
Extant Asset Portfolios
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Dataset
1,43,632 customers
201 branches
5 districts
in Tamil Nadu, Uttarakhand, and
Odisha
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Asset Category Median Value (in INR) Percentage of Total Assets
Electronics 7,000 3%
House 99,000 49%
Vehicle 1,250 0.6%
Consumption assets
(total) 107,250 53%
Agricultural equipment 500 0.25%
Investment - 0%
Jewellery 88,320 44%
Land - 0%
Livestock 4,500 2%
Shop - 0%
Investment assets (total) 93,320 46%
All assets (total) 200,570 100%
Stylised Asset Portfolios
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Occupational Classification
51%
15% 13%
12%
6%
2% 1% 1% 0%
Primary occupation 56%
19%
15%
5% 3%
1% 1% 1% 0%
Secondary occupation
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Household Typologies
Jewellery
Jewellery
Jewellery Jewellery
Jewellery
Land
Land
Land
Land
Land
Livestock Livestock
Livestock
Livestock
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Agriculture-Only Labour-Only Salaried-Agriculture Business-Agriculture Labour-Agriculture
Media
n V
alu
e (
INR
)
Consumption assets Agricultural-equipment Investment Jewellery Land Livestock Shop
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Portfolio Risk-Return on Physical Assets:
Estimation Methodology
Land Rs. 14,535 output per acre of a basket of 44 crops for 17 states in India
Income per acre is 20-35% of the value of the output
Source of risk - 1% deviation from mean historical rainfall leads to a 1% decline in output
Drought or Flood event - If rainfall varies in excess of one standard deviation above or below mean rainfall
Hold for a 50-year period
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Portfolio Risk-Return on Physical Assets:
Estimation Methodology
Livestock Revenue streams- Milk, Manure & Calf
Costs- Purchase price, Fodder, Medical expenses & Insemination
Purchase price of the cow- Rs. 20,000 (Ongole breed)
Assumed life expectancy- 10 years
Sources of risk - (1) Morbidity (incidence of foot and mouth disease; (2) Mortality (death of the animal during its 10-year lifetime)
Mortality and morbidity rates- Primary research conducted by Bangar et al. (2013)
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Risk-Returns of Physical Assets
Jewellery (Gold) Land Livestock
Annual
Returns 14.64% 2.35% 10.26%
Standard
Deviation 18.70% 0.21% 17.86%
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Portfolio Risk-Return on Physical Assets
6.93%
14.62%
6.86% 7.64%
7.07%
6.13%
18.60%
5.48%
6.79% 5.92%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Agriculture-Only Labour-Only Salaried-Agriculture Business-Agriculture Labour-Agriculture
Annual Return Standard Deviation
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Section 3
Introduction of Financial Assets
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Risk-Return of Physical Assets (with insurance)
Land Livestock
Annual Returns 2.52% 12.06%
Change in Returns 0.17% 1.80%
Standard Deviation 0.00% 9.12%
Change in Risk -0.21% -8.74%
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Portfolio Risk-Return (with insurance)
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Suite of Replacement Financial Assets
Return Risk
BSE Top 100 22.82% 33.24%
Equity-ETF 20.77% 30.43%
Savings Bank Account 5.00% 0.00%
G-Sec (3 year) 7.17% 0.98%
G-Sec (9 year) 7.61% 0.79%
G-Sec (15 year) 7.97% 0.70%
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Effect of Replacement Financial Assets
Agriculture-
Only
Labour-
Only
Salaried-
Agriculture
Business-
Agriculture
Labour-
Agriculture
Nominal Returns on
Portfolio of Physical Assets 6.93% 14.62% 6.86% 7.64% 7.07%
Real Returns on Portfolio of
Physical Assets -1.11% 6.58% -1.18% -0.40% -0.97%
Real Returns on Portfolio of
Financial Assets 2.50% 8.60% 2.01% 3.05% 2.34%
Change in Returns 3.61% 2.02% 3.19% 3.45% 3.31%
Standard Deviation 6.13% 18.60% 5.48% 6.79% 5.92%
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Efficiency Frontier: Replacement Financial Assets
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Efficiency Frontier: Replacement Financial Assets
with NPS
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Policy Implications
Products
• Mutual Funds
• National Pension Scheme – Swavalamban (NPS-S)
Distribution Channels
• Banking designs
• Economies of scope
• KYC norms
• Small-ticket transactions
• Universal bank accounts
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Conclusion
Modern finance is a central pillar of civilised society, and for society to fully realise its promise, finance “has to be expanded, democratized and humanized…by giving people the ability to participate in the financial system as equals.”
- Robert J. Shiller, Finance and the Good Society