How many sheep are out there? - Charles Sturt University · Australian flock size 1950-2015 60 80...
Transcript of How many sheep are out there? - Charles Sturt University · Australian flock size 1950-2015 60 80...
![Page 1: How many sheep are out there? - Charles Sturt University · Australian flock size 1950-2015 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d81a9f936806d7e3dbb8c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
How many sheep are out there? And why should you care.
![Page 2: How many sheep are out there? - Charles Sturt University · Australian flock size 1950-2015 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d81a9f936806d7e3dbb8c/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Australian flock size 1950-2015
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Flco
k si
ze m
hd
Year
Source: BAE, AWC, AWPFC
![Page 3: How many sheep are out there? - Charles Sturt University · Australian flock size 1950-2015 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d81a9f936806d7e3dbb8c/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Flock estimates
Source 2014 2015 2016
ABS 75.50 71.60
ABARES 72.70 70.70 72.10
AWPFC 75.50 71.60 69.10
MLA 71.63 71.00 71.51
![Page 4: How many sheep are out there? - Charles Sturt University · Australian flock size 1950-2015 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d81a9f936806d7e3dbb8c/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Lamb supply & price
![Page 5: How many sheep are out there? - Charles Sturt University · Australian flock size 1950-2015 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d81a9f936806d7e3dbb8c/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Lamb offtake
![Page 6: How many sheep are out there? - Charles Sturt University · Australian flock size 1950-2015 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d81a9f936806d7e3dbb8c/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Trade lamb change in price model Inputs: Supply & FX
![Page 7: How many sheep are out there? - Charles Sturt University · Australian flock size 1950-2015 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d81a9f936806d7e3dbb8c/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Lamb price model inputs
Y on Y change in
lamb supply
Y on Y change in AUD/USD
Change 1% 1%
Effect -2.4% -0.4%
Abs Median Change 6% 5%
Absolute Effect 13.6% 2.3%
![Page 8: How many sheep are out there? - Charles Sturt University · Australian flock size 1950-2015 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d81a9f936806d7e3dbb8c/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Structural changes
![Page 9: How many sheep are out there? - Charles Sturt University · Australian flock size 1950-2015 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d81a9f936806d7e3dbb8c/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Mutton price and supply
![Page 10: How many sheep are out there? - Charles Sturt University · Australian flock size 1950-2015 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d81a9f936806d7e3dbb8c/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Change in mutton price model Shadow store market effect missing
![Page 11: How many sheep are out there? - Charles Sturt University · Australian flock size 1950-2015 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d81a9f936806d7e3dbb8c/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Sheep offtake Highly variable
![Page 12: How many sheep are out there? - Charles Sturt University · Australian flock size 1950-2015 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d81a9f936806d7e3dbb8c/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Sheep offtake & flock size
![Page 13: How many sheep are out there? - Charles Sturt University · Australian flock size 1950-2015 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d81a9f936806d7e3dbb8c/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Fine micron premiums and supply
![Page 14: How many sheep are out there? - Charles Sturt University · Australian flock size 1950-2015 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d81a9f936806d7e3dbb8c/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
What about the trend in fine micron premiums?
![Page 15: How many sheep are out there? - Charles Sturt University · Australian flock size 1950-2015 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d81a9f936806d7e3dbb8c/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Broad merino basis and supply
![Page 16: How many sheep are out there? - Charles Sturt University · Australian flock size 1950-2015 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d81a9f936806d7e3dbb8c/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Flock size model
![Page 17: How many sheep are out there? - Charles Sturt University · Australian flock size 1950-2015 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d81a9f936806d7e3dbb8c/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Flock model What drives it?
• Wool to wheat price ratio - lagged
• Change in sheep slaughter numbers/LE – lagged
• Dummy variables for OJD/Mulesing issue
![Page 18: How many sheep are out there? - Charles Sturt University · Australian flock size 1950-2015 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d81a9f936806d7e3dbb8c/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
ENSO
Average change in supply Mutton Lamb
El Nino 2% -1%
Neutral -1% 0%
La Nina -4% 1%
![Page 19: How many sheep are out there? - Charles Sturt University · Australian flock size 1950-2015 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d81a9f936806d7e3dbb8c/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Flock size underpins:
Lamb supply – drives lamb prices
Sheep supply – mutton price driven by sheep meat supply
Wool supply – wool premiums and discounts driven largely by supply (fashion is always in the
background somewhere)