How it came about, an analysis of the 2010

British General Election

Professor Sir Robert WorcesterDr. Roger Mortimore

Dr. Paul BainesMark Gill

18th May 2011Thatcher Room

Portcullis House

Explaining Cameron’s Coalition

37%

30%

23%

10%

30618

258

5711

Share of votes (GB)

Seats

(41%) (-14%)

(48%) (+17%)

(9%)(-1%)

(-6)(-6)

(+7%)(+7%)(+0)(+0)

(+2)(+2)

2010 GE: Tories led by seven - but nobody won

326 to win

31 31 3032 31

33 3237 38 3736 34

38 3837 393736 3737 37 3839 37 37 3738 39 40 39 3938

4036

38 373634

32 333431

33353233 31 3131 30

3335

2521 23 22 2222

191917 1820 2019 1920 20 1918 20

1720 1818 19 18

16

9 7 9 8 7 9 91212 1010 10 1112 1212

91312 13 13 13

8 8 8 7

0

10

20

30

40

50

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

It was as much Tony Blair as Gordon Brown that lost it for Labour

Source: Ipsos MORI

Average of published voting intention polls in each month*

2005 2007*Excludes BPIX

2006

%

3129 30

28

23 23 25 26 26 28 27 28 29 30 31

42 43 42 4340 38

40 4240 42

39 40 40 38 37

1518 18 18 19 18 19 18

2118 19 19 18 19 1919 21

15 14 14 1315 14 12 11 1311 11 11 10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

The Tories were far enough ahead to win in 2009, but they could not find a way to seal the deal and slipped back before the debates

Source: Ipsos MORI analysis of data from pollingreport.co.uk

Average of all published voting intention polls in each month

%

2009 2010

15 1615

14 14 12 12 11 8 6

The Political Triangle©

24% P

AR

TY IM

AG

E31% LEADER IMAGE

46% ISSUES

FloatingVoters

ValuesBase: 1,742 British adults 18+, 21-25 April 2005

Base: 1,120 British adults 18+, February 2009 Source: MORI

Q I want you to think about what it is that most attracted you to the … party. Some people are attracted mainly by the policies of the party, some by the leaders of the party and some because they identify with the party as a whole. If you had a total of ten points to allocate according to how important each of these was to you, how many points would you allocate to the leaders of the party you intend voting for, how many to its policies, and how many to the party as a whole?

= 38% in 2010= 7.5% Swing2005

I want you to think about what it is that most attracted you to the … party. Some people are attracted mainly by the policies of the party, some by the leaders of the party and some because they identify with the party as a whole. If you had a total of ten points to allocate according to how important each of these was to you, how many points would you allocate to the leaders of the party you intend voting for, how many to its policies, and how many to the party as a whole?

4.44.7

4.1 4.2

4.6

3.5 3.43.2 3.1

2.1 22.3 2.4 2.4

2.1

4

3.3

3.93.8

2.2

1

2

3

4

5

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

Source: Ipsos MORI

For the first time, leaders were as important as policies in how people voted

Leaders

Parties

Policies

Mean scores shown

Base: All giving a voting intention c.700 British adults each month (1,210 2.10)

Brown retained some positive attributes against Cameron – but crucially not on “personality” items

Understands world problems

Understands Britain's problems

Inflexible

Talks down

Narrow mindedInexperienced

Patriotic Out of touch

Honest

Sound judgement

Personality

Good in crisis

Down-to-earth

Capable leader

CLEGG

CAMERON

BROWN

Base: 975 British adults 18+, 13th-18th May 2010 Source: Ipsos MORI

36 36 3753

42604449

But not on “being liked”

-13 -23

% Like

% Dislike

Jan ‘07 Apr ‘10

-8 +11

Bro

wn

Ca

me

ron

Source: Ipsos MORI Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ in each survey

Bro

wn

Ca

me

ron

+9.5% swing

- 5% swing

Perhaps because the party never fully “detoxified” its brand

Source: Ipsos MORIBase: 975 British adults 18+, 13th-18th May 2010

LIB DEM

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

Promise anything to win votes

Understands the Problems facingBritain

Dominated by leader

All classes

Professional

Out of touch

Moderate

Interests of people like us

Keeps its promises

Sensible policies

Good team of leaders

Extreme

Divided

Concerned

38 29 43 38

47 51 54 57

And the Tories remained less liked than Labour!

-9 -11

% Like

% Dislike

Jan ‘07 Apr ‘10

-22 -19

La

bo

ur

Co

nse

rvat

ives

La

bo

ur

Co

nse

rvat

ives

Source: Ipsos MORI Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ in each survey

+1.5% swing

- 1% swing

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jun 2005 Jun 2006 Jun 2007 Jun 2008 Jun 2009

The economy was the over-riding public concern

NHSCrime/

Law & Order

Economy

Source: Ipsos MORI

Q “What do you see as the most important issues facing Britain today? What are the other important issues facing Britain today?”

Unemployment

Base: c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month

Race/immigration

Defence

Education

31%

28%

31%

44%

28%

6%

20%

15%

1%

17%

4%

19%

26%

38%

21%

46%

35%

26%

0%

31%

33%

Managing the economy*

Education

Asylum/immigration

Taxation

But no party had a clear lead on it

Source: Ipsos MORIBase: Those thinking each issue was important, from 1,503 British adults 18+, 19-22 March 2010

*For managing the economy, base includes those thinking unemployment was important

Labour Conservatives Lib Dems Other/None/Don’t know

40

26

23

12

% who think issue is ‘very important’ in helping them decide how to vote

Healthcare

14

+3%

0%

+ 5%

+ 38%

+ 6%

Half again as many interested as in ‘92

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ in each survey

Q “Thinking back to the campaign, how interested would you say you were in news about the General Election?”

13

12

19

41

39

46

49

34

1992

1997

2001

2010

% Very interested % Fairly interested

52%

58%

68%

75%

30 3027 27 27 28

30

38 38

33 34 35 36 37

1921

30 29 28 2724

0

10

20

30

40

The first debate had a huge impact, but not so much on the final outcome

Source: Ipsos MORI analysis of data from pollingreport.com

Average of all published voting intention polls in each period

%

Electioncalled

Firstdebate

Seconddebate

Thirddebate

Finalpolls

Electionday

81

80

81

70

66

62

50

17

18

18

26

32

35

4969

72

88

88

81

73

77

30

27

21

21

16

11

10

1992

2001

1997

1987

% Definitely decided

% May change mind

Mid- campaign Eve of poll

2005

2010

1983

A more volatile electorate in 2010

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

57%

5%

14%

11%

14%

10%

66%

10%

9%

5%

Before the campaign

In the first week

Within the last week

Q. “When did you decide which party to vote for? Was it before the campaign began, in the first week of the campaign, around the middle, within the last week, or within the last 24 hours?”

Around the middle

Base: 1,399 British electors, 5th – 10th May 2005

Within the last 24 hours

Don’t know (*%)

More than a quarter didn’t decide until the last week

2005 2010

Before the campaign

In the first week

Within the last week

Around the middle

Within the last 24 hours

Don’t know (1%)

Base: 1,023 British adults 18+, 12th-13th May 2010Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

19% 28%

Understanding the Result

The detail on how Britain voted in 2010

710

5

53

610

1313

118

-9

-1

AllMen

Women18-2425-3435-4445-5455-64

65+ABC1C2DE

Traditional demographic differences are becoming less useful in explaining who people will vote for

Base: 10,211 GB adults 18+, 19 March – 5 May 2010, weighted to the final outcome and turnout Source: Ipsos MORI

+5.0%

+5.0%+5.5%+4.5%

+9.0%

+8.5%+5.0%+1.0%

+3.5%+2.0%

+3.0%

+7.5%

+7.0%

Lab – Con SwingCon lead over Labour

2%6%

0%8%9%

12%

1%

6%5%

Oct 1974

1979

1983

1992

2005

1987

1997 2001

Con lead over Lab higher among womenCon lead over Lab higher among men

2010

The gender gap: a generational shift

Source: Ipsos MORI Election Aggregates

-23

-20-8

-25

-10

-2

-2

+9

+27+33

+28+11

+6

+7+21

+7All

Owned outright

Mortgage

Social renter

Private renter

East Midlands

Eastern

Greater London

North East

North West

Scotland

South East

South West

Wales

West Midlands

Yorks & Humber

Where you live does matter

Base: 10,211 GB adults 18+, 19 March – 5 May 2010, weighted to the final outcome and turnout Source: Ipsos MORI

+5.0%Lab – Con Swing

+3.0%+6.0%+8.0%+7.5%+6.5%+7%+2.5%+6.5%+4.5%-0.5%+6.5%+6%+6%+6.5%+6.5%

Con lead over Labour

-42-54

-37-18

-13

+2+27

+15

+63

+43+35

+7All

Express

Mail

Mirror

Record

Telegraph

Guardian

Independent

Star

Sun

Times

None

And so does what you read

Base: 10,211 GB adults 18+, 19 March – 5 May 2010, weighted to the final outcome and turnout Source: Ipsos MORI

+5%

Lab – Con Swing

+7%

+4%

+6.5%

-2.5%

+5.5%

-0.5%

+1.5%

+10%

+13.5%

+8%

+5.5%

Con lead over Labour

%

A low turnout, again, but not turned off

Average = 76%

Average = 62%

Differential turnout boosted the Conservatives

Base: 10,211 GB adults 18+, 19 March – 5 May 2010, weighted to the final outcome and turnout Source: Ipsos MORI

+7+10+5-1+5+3+6+10+13+13+11+8-9

Con lead in this group

17 18 22

22 2427

32 2922

30 30 29

2712

29

25

21

30

2333

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1969 1979 1989 1999 2009

There is no working class majority anymore (even if they all voted!)

Source: National Readership Survey

AB C1 C2 DE

44%

56%

WORKING CLASS

MIDDLE CLASS

63%

37%

19% SWING

14%

26%

44%

16%

More middle class than working class voters voted Labour

19%

24%40%

17%26%

33%

32%

9%

1992 2005

Source: Ipsos MORI Election Aggregates

Middle classLabour voters

Working classLabour voters

Middle classvoters forother parties

Working classvoters forother parties

2010

(4.6m)(4.1m)

27

27%

16%

57%25%

63%

12%

22% 59%

19%

Do they have regrets? How 2010 voters say they would vote now...

Source: Ipsos MORI/Reuters Base: 4,164 GB adults 18+, January-April 2011

Voted Toryin 2010

Voted LDin 2010

Voted Labourin 2010

Q “How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?”

Still vote Tory

Still vote

LibDemStill vote

Labour

What did we vote for? What did we get?

Thank You

rmworcester@yahoo.comroger.mortimore@ipsos.comPaul.baines@cranfield.ac.ukmarkgill10@googlemail.com

The poll pickers picked away…

Source: Ipsos MORI analysis of figures collected by the British Polling Council

Then there was the Exit Poll

10 PM: “Rubbish”

11 PM: “If the exit poll is right, I’ll run naked down Whitehall”

Midnight: “Let’s wait and see”

3 AM: “M’God, it might be right after all”

6 AM: “Well, what do you know?”

“Well, what do you know?” (right again)

Q “Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Blair / Mr Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister?

Brown’s 2010 approval ratings were similar to Blair’s in 2005

Source: Ipsos MORI

BrownMarch 2010

Blair March 2005

Base: c.1,000 British adults age 18+

2010 general election: result

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

SeatsVotes (GB)

326

306

258

5729

37%

30%

10%

24%

Conservative

Lib Dem

Other

Labour

The Tories failed to do significantly better in the marginal constituencies

25%

13%

10%

46%

4%The debate has encouraged me to vote for the party I already support

Don’t know (1%)

The debate has encouraged me to switch my vote from one party to another

The debate made me change from being undecided to choosing one of the parties to vote for

Which of these statements do you most agree with?

None of these

The debate has put me off voting for any party (1%)

The debate has had no impact on how I intend

to vote

Base: 899 British adults 18+ who watched the first debate, 18th-19th April 2010 Source: Ipsos MORI

Half said the first debate had some impact on their voting intention

Key insights into the 2010 general election (1)

1) It was as much Tony Blair as Gordon Brown that lost it for Labour

2) Brown’s 2010 approval ratings were similar to Blair’s in 2005

3) Brown retained some positive attributes against Cameron – but crucially not on “likeability”

4) The Tories were far enough ahead to win in 2009, but they could not find a way to seal the deal and slipped back before the debates

5) The economy was the dominant issue of this election – but no party was trusted on it

6) It was the leaders not the policies that mattered in this election – and the public had decided this before the debates

7) The public found this to be one of the most interesting elections

8) The debates were very exciting but made no real difference in the end

9) Many more people took their time to finally decide how to vote

10) More than a quarter didn’t decide how to vote until the final week

11) The polls were right (again); the Exit Poll spectacularly so

12) Traditional demographic differences (gender, age and class) are becoming less useful as explaining who people will vote for

13) But where you live makes a huge difference

14) Voting is still aligned with newspaper readership – Sun readers swung the most heavily towards the Tories in 2010

15) Turnout was low again and this helped the Conservatives

16) The middle class vote will be crucial in future elections – including for Labour

17) Do they have regrets? Some do for sure!

Key insights into the 2010 general election (2)

Key Reference Points

Capable (p78)Class shift (p281)Debates impact (p146/217/218)Exit poll (p294)Gender gap (p.286)If Libs could win (p204)Interest (p225)Issues (p178)Late decision pies (p193)Leader image (p82/263)Like him (p81/126)Oct '07 Election off (p65)Party image (p91/127)Political triangle (p165)Polls (p292/310)Sleaze (p39/138): 10%, 18%, 24%Tactical voting (p206)Trust (p136/140): down to 13% from c. 20%, so not about 'restoring trust', it's about earning someTurnout (p15): average since the war 76%, only 65% this timeTurnout impact : 44% 18-24 vs. 76% 65+Volatility (p192)Voting x readership (p244)Who won (p196)