How does laser cost scaling affect the power plant optimization?

HAPL Program Meeting

PPPL

Dec 12-13, 2006

Wayne Meier

LLNL

Work performed under the auspices of the U. S. Department of Energy by University of California Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract W-7405-Eng-48

UCRL-PRES-226670

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Background

• Detailed systems models for lasers have not been updated as part of the HAPL study

• Past HAPL systems modeling presentations have used a simple linear $/J cost scaling with zero intercept

• Here we consider other scaling assumptions to see how COE results change

• Still need to develop improved laser systems models– Needed for both KrF and DPSSLs – Include driver efficiency and O&M cost scaling– Include dependence on driver energy, rep-rate, number of

beams, illumination geometry, etc.

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Past example: Cost of KrF laser in Sombrero study scaled like C = a + b·E

Direct capital cost 1991 $MCL = 175 + 120E(MJ)(shown here)

Direct capital cost 2005 $MCL = 233 + 160E(MJ)(escalate by 33%)

Total capital cost 2005 $MCL = 450 + 310E(MJ)(Total = 1.936 Direct)

At E = 4 MJ, CL = $1690MAvg. $/J = $422/J

Ref. Sombrero report. Fig. 8.20, p. 8-38

Laser

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Consider different laser cost scalings, all with same total cost at 4 MJ

0 1 2 3 40

500

1000

1500

2000a=0, b=422, c=1.0a=450, b=310, c=1.0a=450, b=620, c=0.5

Driver energy, MJ

Driv

er to

tal c

apita

l cos

t, $M

Assume we know the cost at 4 MJ, but not how it scales to lower energy.Consider three cases:1. Linear with $0 intercept2. Linear with $450M intercept3. Square root with $450M interceptIn this example, we take total capital cost at 4 MJ = $1.69B

• Real scaling is likely closer to Case 2 than Case 3 due to highly parallel architecture.• Intercept and slope likely different for KrF and DPSSL• More work is needed, but these cases probably bound reality (at least shape of curves). If not linear, scaling likely closer to E0.8-0.9, so E0.5 is worst case.

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Example total capital cost vs driver energy

Example case assumptions:Pnet = 1000 MWe3 direct-drive gain curveLaser efficiency= 9.6%

Laser total capital cost ($M) CL = 450 + 310·E(MJ)

0 1 2 3 40

1

2

3

4

5

Total Capital Cost Chamber, Target Fab, BOPLaser

Driver energy, MJ

Tota

l cap

ital c

ost,

$B

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COE results for KrF gain curve and KrF laser efficiency

KrF case:Pnet = 1000 MWe0.25 m direct-drive gain curveLaser efficiency= 7.5%

CL = a + b·Ec

0 1 2 3 45

6

7

8

9

10a=0, b=422, c=1.0a=450, b=310, c=1.0a=450, b=620, c=0.5

Driver energy, MJ

CO

E, c

/kW

eh

10 Hz @ 1.9 MJ

At 10 Hz (E = 1.91 MJ), COE results:1. 6.51 ¢/kWeh2. 6.82 ¢/kWeh (+4.8%)3. 7.16 ¢/kWeh (+10%)

If no rep-rate limit, optimal laser energy:1. 1.43 MJ (17 Hz)2. 1.56 MJ (14 Hz) 3. 1.67 MJ (13 Hz)

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COE results for 3 gain curve and 3 DPSSL efficiency

3 DPSSL case:Pnet = 1000 MWe3 direct-drive gain curveLaser efficiency= 9.6%

CL = a + b·Ec

0 1 2 3 45

6

7

8

9

10a=0, b=422, c=1.0a=450, b=310, c=1.0a=450, b=620, c=0.5

Driver energy, MJ

CO

E, c

/kW

eh

10 Hz @ 2.3 MJ

At 10 Hz (E = 2.29 MJ), COE results:1. 6.69 ¢/kWeh2. 6.94 ¢/kWeh (+3.7%)3. 7.23 ¢/kWeh (+8.1%)

If no rep-rate limit, optimal laser energy:1. 1.61 MJ (19 Hz)2. 1.77 MJ (16 Hz)3. 1.93 MJ (14 Hz)

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0 1 2 3 45

6

7

8

9

10a=0, b=422, c=1.0a=450, b=310, c=1.0a=450, b=620, c=0.5

Driver energy, MJ

CO

E, c

/kW

ehCOE results for 2 gain curve and 2 DPSSL efficiency

DPSSL case:Pnet = 1000 MWe2 direct-drive gain curveLaser efficiency= 10.8%

CL = a + b·Ec

10 Hz @ 2.5 MJ

At 10 Hz (E = 2.53 MJ), COE results:1. 6.81 ¢/kWeh2. 7.02 ¢/kWeh (+3.1%)3. 7.29 ¢/kWeh (+7.0%)

If no rep-rate limit, optimal laser energy:1. 1.71 MJ (20 Hz)2. 1.89 MJ (17 Hz)3. 2.09 MJ (14 Hz)

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Summary of results

• The linear cost scaling with zero cost intercept is optimistic and certainly wrong

• If the cost scaling is linear but with non-zero intercept,

– Optimum COE point shifts to slightly higher laser energy (+ 0.1-0.2 MJ with assumptions used here)

– COE at fixed 10 Hz increases by 3-5% for these assumptions

• If the cost scales as square root of laser energy and has a non-zero intercept,

– Optimum COE point shifts to slightly higher laser energy (additional 0.1-0.2 MJ)

– COE at fixed 10 Hz increases by another 4-5% (up to 10% total)