How do you make decisions?
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Transcript of How do you make decisions?
If you have a habit of eating salad for lunch every day and that works well for you, just keep on doing it.
Then you can save your decision-making energy for other things.
Adapted fromhttps://hbr.org/2015/11/3-timeless-rules-for-making-tough-decisions
How well do you understand the problem– including the reasons for the problem?
https://hbr.org/2016/11/how-to-make-better-decisions-with-less-data
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/when-deciding-gets-hard-getting-beyond-basics-deb-loftus-ph-d-
Further inspiration
https://www.teacherspayteachers.com/Product/How-can-we-understand-the-problem-1531110
What are argumentsfor the decision?
What are argumentsagainst the decision?
Advantages.Benefits.Strengths.
Disadvantages.Problems.Weaknesses.
Please think about a decision you need to take in your life. Individually, please take 2 minutes now to write down what arguments you can find that speak1. for the decision.2. against the decision.
Now, please take 1 minute individually to consider all arguments you have written down for and against the decision.
Then make the decision.
Further inspiration
https://www.teacherspayteachers.com/Product/Six-thinking-hats-1455136
Head brainThinking and creating meaning.
Heart brainValues, feelings, and relations to others.
Gut brainPersonality.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/when-deciding-gets-hard-getting-beyond-basics-deb-loftus-ph-d-
Have 3 chairs in your office – representing your head brain, heart brain, and gut brain.
Move from chair to chair and give voice to the viewpoint of each brain about the decision to be made.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/when-deciding-gets-hard-getting-beyond-basics-deb-loftus-ph-d-
Further inspiration
https://www.teacherspayteachers.com/Product/The-brain-1500203
5 questions to discover values you have:
Question # 1: What was your last moment of true happiness?Why was this for you a moment of true happiness?
Question # 2: Whom do you admire the most?Why do you admire this person?
Question # 3: When were you at your best?Why were you at your best then?
Question # 4: Which 1 word says the most about you?Why does this word say the most about you? Please explain.
Question # 5: If you could try any work for a week, what would it be?Why do you want to try out the work you suggested?
Value hierarchy
Please write down the 2 values mentioned most frequently.
Values
The # 1 mentioned value:
The # 2 mentioned value:
Further inspiration
https://www.teacherspayteachers.com/Product/Questions-to-discover-your-values-1329394
https://youtu.be/jwG_qR6XmDQ
Please think about a decision you need to take.
When you are 80 years old, do you think you would regret not having done it / having done it?
Jeff Bezos
The 10-10-10 ruleWhen you’re about to make a decision, ask yourself how you will feel about it 10 minutes from now. 10 months from now. 10 years from now.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/03/opinion/the-choice-explosion.htmlhttp://thenextweb.com/insider/2016/08/01/989517/
Hi folks, can we please take 5 minutes to imagine that we are at the end of the project, and that we took some wrong decisions on the way.
During the next 5 minutes, please write down - each one of you – which of the decisions, we took, were wrong. Please also write why we took these wrong decisions. Thank you.
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/strategy/strategic_decisions_when_can_you_trust_your_guthttp://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/are-you-ready-to-decide
The premortem exercise
Further inspiration
https://www.teacherspayteachers.com/Product/How-can-we-understand-the-problem-1531110
Pick a decision you have been postponing.
Give yourself 3 minutes. Then make the decision.
https://hbr.org/2015/11/3-timeless-rules-for-making-tough-decisions
Step # 1Go to a shop website where you can buy toasters.
Step # 2Use the filter to define needs you have for a toaster.Example: Only 1 toast at a time.
Step # 3
Reduce the number of toasters you see to 3 by elimating those you do not want.
Adapted fromhttp://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/08/what-a-bad-decision-looks-like-in-the-brain/497402/
Example: Toaster purchase
Not urgent Urgent
ImportantInvest as much time as
possible doing these tasks whenever possible.
Not important
Eisenhower matrix.
Not urgent Urgent
Important
Examples: Learning. Doing sports / physical exercise. Eating healthy food. Communicating with friends. Planning what you want to do when.
Not important
Not urgent Urgent
Important
Examples: Life / death emergencies. Crisis communication. Deadlines of important tasks. Learning to do something that needs to be
fixed now.
Not important
Not urgent Urgent
Important
Not important
Examples: Watching entertainment. Eating unhealthy food. Phone call about topics of little relevance.
Not urgent Urgent
Important
Not important
Examples: Ineffective meetings. Phone call or e-mail with irrelevant demands.
Sources
http://www.businessinsider.com/dwight-eisenhower-nailed-a-major-insight-about-productivity-2014-4https://exist.io/blog/eisenhower/https://medium.com/@artofmanliness/decide-like-ike-the-eisenhower-decision-matrix-2959919e5cb6#.w2mir92f5http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newHTE_91.htmhttp://thenextweb.com/insider/2016/08/01/989517/http://theviewinside.me/work-on-the-important-things-that-are-not-urgent/
“I don't think smoking is that bad, because my uncle Arthur smoked 20 cigarettes every day, and he lived till he was 92.”
The story of Arthur is highly unrepresentative of smokers as a whole.
http://voices.yahoo.com/the-availability-error-trap-6892686.html?cat=3
http://io9.com/5974468/the-most-common-cognitive-biases-that-prevent-you-from-being-rationalhttp://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/10/31/how-scared-should-we-be/http://www.livescience.com/3780-odds-dying.htmlLifetime risk is calculated by dividing population by the number of deaths per year, divided by the life expectancy in years of a person.
Lifetime risk of dying in a car accident1:84.
Lifetime risk of dying in a plane crashBetween 1:5,000 and 1:20,000.
To stop eating 2 chocolate bars instead of 1 on a Wednesday, try forcing yourself to live with the consequences of eating 2 chocolate bars every day for the entire week.
http://io9.com/current-moment-bias-is-my-worst-one-im-a-terrible-proc-264008358
Although you know you want to STOP voting for a certain person or certain party, why do you keep voting for this person / party?
http://io9.com/5974468/the-most-common-cognitive-biases-that-prevent-you-from-being-rational
Although you know you should not eat chocolate bar # 2, why do you eat it, just because you bought 2 for the price of 1?
http://www.lifehack.org/articles/communication/how-the-sunk-cost-fallacy-makes-you-act-stupid.html
Further inspiration
https://www.teacherspayteachers.com/Product/Reasons-why-people-resist-change-1453736
Over the course of a regular day, we become increasingly tired. Thereby, the quality of our decisions is reduced.
In other words, do not make important decisions late in the day.
https://hbr.org/2016/02/dont-make-important-decisions-late-in-the-day
If something you want to make a decision about is impacted by many changes, there’s no basis for intuition.
To use intuition, you need a certain degree of stability that only changes minimally.
Adapted fromhttp://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategic-decisions-when-can-you-trust-your-gut
To use your intuition well, decision makers need
to have the possibility to get feedback on their judgments, so they can strengthen them
and gain expertise.
http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategic-decisions-when-can-you-trust-your-gut
Your conscience shouts ”here’s what you should you”, while your
intuition whispers, ”here’s what you could do.”
Listen to that voice that tells you what you could do. Nothing will define your character more than that.
Steven Spielberg.
https://youtu.be/TYtoDunfu00Minute 6.
How does the advice process work?
Step # 1You notice a problem or an opportunity.
Step # 2You seek advice from people who1. will be affected by the decision.2. know a lot about the topic.
Step # 3You make the decision by taking all advice into consideration.
http://www.reinventingorganizationswiki.com/Decision_Making
3 benefits of the advice process
# 1: People are involvedPeople, who are asked for advice, feel they are needed.
# 2: Learning is happeningAsking people = learning.
# 3: Better decisions are madeThe decision maker has to live with the consequences of the decision.
http://www.reinventingorganizationswiki.com/Decision_Making
Buurtzorg uses social media, for example blogs, to support the advice process.
http://www.reinventingorganizationswiki.com/Decision_Making
Please think of a decision you need to make in your life.
Now, please think about from whom you want to seek advice. Please include people who
1. will be affected by the decision.2. know a lot about the topic.
2 minute individual reflection
http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/organization/our-insights/leadership-and-behavior-mastering-the-mechanics-of-reason-and-emotion
When you want to share a cake fairly with another person, ask him or her if he / she wants to divide the cake or decide which piece he / she wants.
The ”divide or decide” method works because the person dividing the cake will make sure that the cake is divided equally.
Let’s say someone constantly interrupts you, andyou are not sure how to respond.
Try the if-then ruleIf the person interrupts you 2 times in a conversation,then you say, “Please let me finish talking.”
https://hbr.org/2015/11/3-timeless-rules-for-making-tough-decisions
Research shows that managers, who made decisions using best practices, achieved their expected results 90% of the time, and 40% of them exceeded expectations.
However, only 2% regularly apply best practices when making decisions.
https://hbr.org/2016/03/a-checklist-for-making-faster-better-decisions
https://twitter.com/mumblr/status/777310047797784576
Human ethnocentrism, the tendency to view one's group as very important and better than other groups,
creates intergroup bias that fuels prejudice, xenophobia, and intergroup violence.
http://www.pnas.org/content/108/4/1262
Further inspiration
https://www.teacherspayteachers.com/Product/Listening-tips-1485898
http://io9.com/5974468/the-most-common-cognitive-biases-that-prevent-you-from-being-rationalhttp://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/are-you-ready-to-decide
We love to agree with people who agree with us.
When you need to make a decision, how often do you listen to / learn from people who disagree with you / have a different opinion than you have?
We may have a negative emotional reaction on meeting people who seem different from us. This “fear of the other” emotion evolved for a good purpose: In a tribal world, other tribes posed a threat.
Today, however, this “fear of the other” emotion can get in the way of interactions. It introduces immediate hostility, when there should not be hostility.
http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/organization/our-insights/leadership-and-behavior-mastering-the-mechanics-of-reason-and-emotion
Degree to which decisionproposals have been challenged against over-optimism by people who do not agree with each other
Use brainstorming to get more ideas.
Make decision.
Use 6 thinking hats.
Number of differentpoints of view considered
http://www.mckinsey.com/Insights/Strategy/Are_you_ready_to_decide
Instead of trying to be loved by everyone, focus on satisfying needs of those who truly love you.
http://thenextweb.com/insider/2016/08/01/989517/
Leader’s choice is usually the fastest approach, so it is the most appropriate in a crisis.
https://hbr.org/2015/03/a-checklist-for-planning-your-next-big-meeting
Further inspiration
https://www.teacherspayteachers.com/Product/Crisis-communication-2393660
When people hear each other make estimates, the 1st person influences the 2nd person who influences the 3rd person etc.
However, when people estimate independently, for example how many coins there are in a jar, the accuracy of the judgment rises - on average - with the number of estimates.
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/strategy/strategic_decisions_when_can_you_trust_your_gut
In an experiment, participants were asked to identify which of 3 lines on a card was the same length as a line on another card.
When asked individually, participants chose the correct line. When asked in the presence of paid actors who intentionally selected the wrong line, about 75% conformed to the group at least once. In other words, they chose an incorrect answer in order to fit in.
https://hbr.org/cover-story/2016/10/let-your-workers-rebel
A majority vote allows every voice to be heard and is generally viewed as fair.
https://hbr.org/2015/03/a-checklist-for-planning-your-next-big-meeting
Be aware that it may be difficult for some people to declare their opinion publicly.
https://hbr.org/2015/03/a-checklist-for-planning-your-next-big-meeting
http://www.destination-innovation.com/try-this-phrase-to-speed-action-unless-i-hear-differently/http://unlessiheardifferently.com/
Send your best plan with this message:
“Unless I hear differently by 11 AM CET on Thursday, I will go ahead with this.”
In a meeting, a person summarizes a dialogue and concludes. When other participants show consent
by saying nothing and/or nodding, the couple / team / group has made a decision.
http://fac-vid.squarespace.com/bedre-moeder/Ravn%20-%20Bedre%20mder%20gennem%20facilitering.pdf p. 9.
Consent based decision making can be made when team members, who are
present, do not object.
http://www.reinventingorganizationswiki.com/Decision_Making
Group exercise. 1 minute per person.
Those of you, who want to, please share a decision
making success experience you had in your life.
Those of you who want to, please ask everyone for help to make a decision you want to make.
After a person has shared what he / she needs help with to make his / her decision, all other participants use their knowledge, resources, and connections to help the person.
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/organization/givers_take_all_the_hidden_dimension_of_corporate_culture
Group exercise. 1 minute per person.