How Do You Calculate Success?
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Transcript of How Do You Calculate Success?
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Tax Lien MathematicsHow Do You Calculate Success?
VADAR SystemsRob Natale, COO
Jed Reitler, VP Sales
Feb 27, 2015
theNTLA.com | vadarsystems.com 1
#NTLAANNUAL15
WI-FI Password: NTLA213
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Lien Math Principles
1. FoundationCollecting Metrics
2. FramingFactoring State Regulations
3. DevelopmentSystemize Calculations and Processes
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Yield Calculations
Business Rules Factored Into Algorithms• Interest and Accrual• Penalties and Fees• Premiums• Redemption Periods
Each State is
Its Own Market
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Continued from NTLA 2014
CO Investment Strategy
• Suggested “Slow Play”
• Accruing interest needs time to offset costs of lost premiums
NJ Investment Strategy
• Suggested “Quick Play”
• Longer redemption periods decrease the return offsets of the fixed penalties
Based on analysis of anonymous sales data from LienSource, SRI, and TSR
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Market Factors
• What is the Bid System?
• What are the Interest Rates?
• What is the Redemption Term?
• What is the Accrual Term?
• Do Penalties Exist?
• Are Premiums Allowed? Recoverable?
• What are the Rules for Subsequents?
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State Sampling
theNTLA.com | vadarsystems.com 6
CO FL IN NJBid System Premium Bid Bid Down Premium Bid Bid Down w/
Premium
Interest Rate Fed disc. + 9 pts 18% 18%
Redemption Term 36 months 24 months 12 months 24 months
Accrual Term Monthly Monthly Every 6 Months Daily
Penalty 5% Minimum 10% then 15% Fixed
Premium Allowed Yes No Yes Yes
Premium Recoverable
No No Yes Yes
Premium Interest No No 10% No
Pay Subsequents Yes No Yes Yes
Subsequent Interest Fed disc. + 9 pts N/A 8% - 18%
Fees • Fed disc + 9 • Property Search• Tax Deed App
• Property Search• Recording• Tax Sale
• Property Search• Recording• Penalty 2%-6%
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Calculation Factors• Bid-Down and Overbid• Cash Flow and NPV• Interest Rate• LTV, IRR, xIRR• Penalties & Fees• Premiums• Redemption Period• Subsequents• State-Specific Process• Operating Expense• Opportunity Cost
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Real World Complexity
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Are You Making Money?
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Receipt – Purchase Price
Purchase Price
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Time Value of Money
For Cash Flows with Fixed Time Intervals
For Cash Flows with Variable Intervals
Reflects the Real World of Lien Portfolios
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Today 1 Year 2 Years 3 Years
Val
ue
$1,000 Over Time
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IRR and xIRR in Excel
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Date Cash Date Cash Date Cash Date Cash
1-Jan $ (100.00) 1-Jan $ (100.00) 1-Jan $ (100.00) 1-Jan $ (100.00)
2-Jan $ 101.00 31-Jan $ 101.00 31-Jan $ 101.00 1-Jun $ 105.14
IRR 1.00% IRR 1.00% IRR 1.00% IRR 5.14%
xIRR 3678.34% xIRR 12.87% xIRR 12.87% xIRR 12.88%
Date Cash Date Cash Date Cash Date Cash
01/01/13 $ (2,800.00) 01/01/13 $ (2,800.00) 01/01/13 $ (2,800.00) 01/01/13 $ (2,800.00)
02/01/13 $ 35.00 02/01/13 $ 35.00 02/01/13 $ (150.00) 02/01/13 $ (150.00)
06/30/13 $ 500.00 06/30/13 $ 500.00 06/30/13 $ 50.00 06/30/13 $ 50.00
01/31/14 $ 1,200.00 01/31/14 $ 1,200.00 01/31/14 $ 750.00 01/31/14 $ 750.00
12/01/14 $ 750.00 12/01/14 $ 750.00 12/01/14 $ 750.00 12/01/14 $ 750.00
01/31/15 $ 800.00 02/27/15 $ 800.00 01/31/15 $ 1,750.00 2/27/15 $ 1,750.00
IRR 4.65% IRR 4.65% IRR 2.70% IRR 2.70%
xIRR 12.13% xIRR 11.98% xIRR 6.49% xIRR 6.35%
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1-Year Return
The Same Lien Feb 27, 2014 and Today
6.72% Rate of Return
2.83% Rate of Return
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Business Intelligence
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“When you buy your first lien, you enter the lien servicing business.”
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Learn More
vadarsystems.com
(978) 461-5855
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