How do Scotland and England perform in relation to higher education participation?

Understanding the role of colleges in Scotland

Lucy Hunter BlackburnUniversity of Edinburgh

UCAS entry rate at age 18

Higher Education Initial Participation Rate (up to age 30)

Entry routes through further education (FE) colleges: comparative issues

Outline

UCAS Age 18 Entry Rate

Source University and College Admission Service (UCAS)

Countries by domicile

England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales

Age Entrants through UCAS “main scheme” aged 18 as a percentage of all 18 year olds

Coverage All using UCAS, overwhelmingly institutions specialising in providing degree-level higher education - universities and university colleges account for 94% entrants in England, 98% in Scotland.

Excludes Undergraduate Teacher Training (UTT) - except in Scotland, where UTT included from 2015 (= c5% of Scottish entrants)Open UniversityConservatoires across UK (inc RCS)HE in FE colleges in Scotland (except colleges forming part of UHI)

Measuring at age 18: acceptances in each age band

as % of all acceptances up to age 19

England Northern Ireland

Scotland Wales

Up to 17 0.3% 0.2% 2.8% 0.1%

18 71% 79% 75% 73%

19 29% 21% 22% 27%

Measurementdate

18 on 31 August of year in question

18 on 28 February of the following year

18 on 1 July of year in question

Note: Figures for age 18 applicants as a percentages of all applicants up to age 19 are identical for England, NI, Wales in 2015; 74% for Scotland.

UCAS Age 18

Entry rates 2015 Scotland as % England

31%

19%

45%

25%

10%

37%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Q1 Q5

Average POLAR3 POLAR3

England Scotland

Average 78%

Q1 56%

Q5 82%

UCAS Age 18Entry rates 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Q1 Q5

Average POLAR3 POLAR3

England Scotland Wales

UCAS Age 18Entry rates 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Q1 Q5

Average POLAR3 POLAR3

England Northern Ireland Scotland Wales

UCAS Age 18

Scotland and % of England Application rates 2015

35%

21%

52%

32%

16%

46%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Q1 Q5

Average POLAR3 POLAR3

England Scotland

Average 91%

Q1 74%

Q5 91%

UCAS Age 18

Application rates 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Q1 Q5

Average POLAR3 POLAR3

England

Scotland

Wales

UCAS Age 18Application rates 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Q1 Q5

Average POLAR3 POLAR3

England

NorthernIreland

Scotland

Wales

65%605/910

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40%

60%

80%

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UCAS acceptance rates at age 18by POLAR3 quintile: 2015 cycle by domicile (Scotland only)

Source: UCAS

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UCAS acceptance rates at age 18 by POLAR3 quintile: 2015 cycle by domicile (Scotland and England)

Source: UCAS

65% 67% 70%73%

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UCAS acceptance rates at age 18, by POLAR3 quintile: 2015 cycle by domicile (Scotland and England)

Source: UCAS

84% 85% 86% 86% 87%

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UCAS acceptance rates at age 18, by POLAR3 quintile: 2015 cycle by domicile (Scotland and England)

Source: UCAS

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UCAS UCAS acceptance rates at age 18, by POLAR3 quintile: 2015 cycle by domicile (England, Scotland and Wales)

Source: UCAS

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UCAS acceptance rates at age 18, by POLAR3 quintile: 2015 cycle by domicile

Source: UCAS

UCAS acceptance rates at age 18 by POLAR3 quintile 2006 -2015

England Scotland

83% 84%

87% 87%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Q1 'England'

Q2 'England'

Q3 'England'

Q4 'England'

Q5 'England'

66%

65%

83%78%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Q1 'Scotland'

Q2 'Scotland'

Q3 'Scotland'

Q4 'Scotland'

Q5 'Scotland'

Source: UCAS

UCAS acceptance rates at age 18 by POLAR3 quintile 2006 - 2015 (England and Scotland)

• Very similar rise in volume of applications in both nations over period, with particular increase in 2009/2010.

• Acceptance rates dipped in England, then recovered.

• Acceptance rates dipped in Scotland, then continued to fall, establishing a new, lower norm.0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: UCAS

Summary: UCAS entry rates for the most disadvantaged –Scotland in comparison with other UK nations

• Scotland’s combination of lower application and lower acceptance rates is unique and explains the difference in direct entry rates to university at 18 between Scotland and other UK nations, particularly for the most disadvantaged.

• The difference for this group with England is explained more or less equally by lower interest from this group in applying, and lower success rates when they do.

• Lower acceptance rates for Scots through UCAS are likely to be related to the tighter supply of university places for Scots in Scotland. Greater difference by background is likely to relate to higher entrance requirements which follow from that.

Higher Education Initial Entry Rate (HEIPR)

Source UK government (BIS) and Scottish Government (SFC)

Countries England and Scotland

Age Sum of the entry rate at each age up to 30 (17 – 30 in Scotland, 18 - 30 in England).

Institutions

All providers

Includes Initial entrants on HE courses at any level. Full-time and part-time, lasting at least 6 months, who attend for at least 6 months.

Excludes Re-entrants, who have already been counted in previous years.

42% 43%45% 46% 46%

49%

43%47%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

Higher Education Initial Participation Rate (to age 30)England - all

Source: BIS

32.9% 33.8% 31.9% 32.4%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

Scotland: HEIs in Scotland England (all)

Higher Education Initial Participation Rate (to age 30)Scotland – HEIs in Scotland; England - all

Source: SFC, BIS

2.0% 2.3%1.6%

1.7%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

Scotland: HEIs in Scotland Scotland: HEIs in rUK England (all)

Higher Education Initial Participation Rate (to age 30)Scotland – HEIs; England - all

Source: SFC, BIS

18.3% 17.6%21.8% 20.9%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

Scotland: HEIs in Scotland Scotland: HEIs in rUK

Scotland: Further Education Colleges England (all)

Higher Education Initial Participation Rate (to age 30)Scotland – HEIs and FECs; England - all

Source: SFC, BIS

53.2% 52.0%56.1% 55.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

Scotland: HEIs in Scotland Scotland: HEIs in rUK

Scotland: Further Education Colleges England (all)

Higher Education Initial Participation Rate (to age 30)Scotland – HEIs and FECs; England - all

15.1%15.9%

48.0% 47.1%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

MD20 (most deprived areas) LD20 (least deprived areas)

Scottish Higher Educations Institutions Higher Education Institutions in rest of UK

Higher Education Initial Participation Rate (to age 30)Scotland – by most and least deprived 20%: higher education institutions

Source: SFC

19.1%

25.4%16.0% 16.6%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

MD20 (most deprived areas) LD20 (least deprived areas)

Scottish Higher Educations Institutions Scottish Further Education Colleges

Higher Education Institutions in rest of UK

Higher Education Initial Participation Rate (to age 30)Scotland – by most and least deprived 20%: all entrance routes

Source: SFC

19.1%

25.4%16.0%

16.6%

34.6%

41.7%

67.7% 67.5%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

MD20 (most deprived areas) LD20 (least deprived areas)

Scottish Higher Educations Institutions Scottish Further Education Colleges

Higher Education Institutions in rest of UK Total

Higher Education Initial Participation Rate (to age 30)Scotland – by most and least deprived 20%: all entrance routes

Source: SFC

Entry to HE through FE colleges: equivalence issues with direct entry to university

• HN-level qualifications alone: lower earnings gains, access not enabled to the same range of occupations, particularly the professions.

• For the remainder who transfer to university:

o Around 50% of these will obtain no credit or only partial credit, requiring repeat years (particularly if moving onto one of the older universities), leading to higher direct and opportunity costs.

o For those obtaining full credit, more limited subject and institutional choice.

o Potential transitional challenges -social/cultural/pedagogical.

Discussion points• Explanations for the stronger influence of background

on university application rates in Scotland at age 18.

• The overall supply of university-level opportunities in Scotland, and the link between greater competition, required entry qualifications and the influence of background on acceptance rates.

• The additional costs often associated with starting in college and then moving to university (and other articulation issues).

• The comparability of different levels of HE; how far entry to college for HN-level study is comparable with, say, entry to a low tariff HEI in England.