Climate Change Communication Between Broadcast Meteorologists and Their Viewing Audiences
How do Meteorologists Make a Forecast?
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How do Meteorologists Make a Forecast?
Ross A. LazearFebruary 29, 2012
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Why the discrepancy?
Forecasting is often extremely challenging!
There are *many* forecasts made available to the public…
*National Weather Service*The Weather Channel*AccuWeather*Wunderground*Your iPhone…etc…
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*Nowcasting (Up to six hours)
*Short/medium range (Up to 7-10 days)
*Long range/intraseasonal/seasonal
*Climate (IPCC)
Types of Forecasts
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*Nowcasting (Up to six hours)
*Short/medium range (Up to 7-10 days)
*Long range/intraseasonal/seasonal
*Climate (IPCC)
Types of Forecasts
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When will the thunderstorm hit?
When will the snow taper?
When will the rain change to snow/sleet/freezing rain?
Nowcasting
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Radar Satellite SoundingsNowcasting Tools
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Nowcasting Tools
Surface (airport) observations
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*Nowcasting (Up to six hours)
*Short/medium range (Up to 7-10 days)
*Long range/intraseasonal/seasonal
*Climate (IPCC)
Types of Forecasts
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Short/Medium Range ForecastingComputer models needed!
Models use:-Current surface observations-Upper air observations-Previous forecast
…and then…
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Short/Medium Range Forecasting
From MetEd / UCAR
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ModelsGFS - 16 days, global, U.S.A.NAM - 84 hours, N. America, U.S.A.HRRR/Rapid Refresh, 18 hours, U.S.A.ECMWF - 10 days, global, U.K.UKMET - global, U.K.NOGAPS - global, U.S.A. (Navy)JMA - JapanCMC - Canada
WRF - Multiple domains, also run locally at Albany!
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*Nowcasting (Up to six hours)
*Short/medium range (Up to 7-10 days)
*Long range/intraseasonal/seasonal
*Climate (IPCC)
Types of Forecasts
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Long Range/Intraseasonal/SeasonalVarious global “signals” that help meteorologists forecast on longer time scales.
-ENSO (El Niño/La Niña)
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Long Range/Intraseasonal/SeasonalAlso…
-Lots of other complex atmospheric waves in the tropics…
From Dr. Paul Roundy, UAlbany